CCS Technology Roadmap: Potential and Future challenges

CCS Technology Roadmap: Potential and Future ChallengesSean McCoyCCS: Perspectives for the Southern African RegionJohannesburg, South Africa31 May 2011 OECD/IEA 2011 OECD/IEA 2011 Messages todayThe CCS Roadmap presents an ambitious goal for CCS deployment

More projects are needed if CCS Roadmap targets are to be met

Critical challenges need to be addressed globally if CCS is to play a significant role in reducing emissions OECD/IEA 2011

CCS is needed to meet emissions reduction targets

Source: IEA ETP, 2010BLUE Map Scenario OECD/IEA 2011 ETP BLUE Map is a 50% from 2007 (29 Gt) and 80% from BAU (57 Gt) reduction in 2050.3

The IEA CCS Roadmap sets an ambitious growth path

Source: IEA CCS Roadmap, 2009 OECD/IEA 2011 A global challenge for a global technology

CCS will be required in all regions of the world in power, industry and upstreamSource: IEA CCS Roadmap, 2009 OECD/IEA 2011 5CCS is not just clean coal

Coal power makes up around only 40% of stored emissions in 2050Source: IEA CCS Roadmap, 2009 OECD/IEA 2011

6An investment challengeNeed to mobilise five trillion USD investment in underlying facilities, CO2 capture plant, transport and storage between 2010 and 2050This averages to 125 billion USD per year capital investment in CCSTotal investment in CCS is 11% of the incremental investment in the BLUE Map scenario between 2010 and 2050

Source: IEA CCS Roadmap, 2009 OECD/IEA 2011 ETP 2010: power generation and industrial sector investment in the baseline scenario is ~270 trillion USD; under the BLUE Map scenario total investment is ~46 trillion USD higher, so spending on CCS is a small fraction of the incremental investment to reduce emissions (~10%).

7Messages todayThe CCS Roadmap presents an ambitious goal for CCS deployment

More projects are needed if CCS Roadmap targets are to be met

Critical challenges need to be addressed globally if CCS is to play a significant role in reducing emissions OECD/IEA 2011 Integrated CCS projects are operating today

SleipnerSnohvitWeyburnIn SalahRangelyThree dedicated storage projects are operating; two other projects capture CO2 from industrial sources for storage via Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) OECD/IEA 2011 sleipner (1) ans snohvit (0,7) in Norway, both storing in the order of 1 million tons of CO2 per annum under the North Sea weyburn in Canada, storing nearly 3 million tons per annum in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery. Co2 comes through a 250km pipeline from North Dakota form a syngas plant Rangely in Colorado, storing 1 million tons per year in conjunction with EOR In Salah in Algeria , storing 1,2 million tons in a gas reservoir

what else do we see? NO POWER PROJECTS! the first projects have clearly been oil and gas industry projects, with a different logic from the power sector one we need to move quickly towards demonstrating CCS with power production Also, we have not listed pilot projects here, so yes, we of course know that there are activities going on in the power sector (Vattenfall Schwartze Pumpe oxyfuel pilot) in Europe9More projects are needed in global pipelineYear201520202030Number of Projects18100850OECD72%50%49%Non-OECD28%50%51%In 2010, the GCCSI estimated there are approximately 80 large-scale integrated projects (LSIP) in various stages of planningAbout half are EOR projectsOf planned non-EOR projects, only one, the Gorgon Project in Australia, is likely to be in operation for 2020 OECD/IEA 2011 Projects are needed in non-OECD countriesRegionOperating ProjectsProjects in Advanced Planning or Construction1Projects in Early-Planning Stages2OECD6 (71%)22 (71%)27 (71%)Non-OECD2 (29%)9 (29%)11(29%)Total831381Defined as those projects in the Define or Execute stages (GCCSI, 2010)2Defined as those projects in the Evaluate or Identify stages (GCCSI, 2010)2020 Roadmap goal is 100 projects50 in OECD countries, 50 in non-OECD countries OECD/IEA 2011 Total projects in planning: 69Total projects in non-OECD countries in planning: 2011Messages todayThe CCS Roadmap presents an ambitious goal for CCS deployment

More projects are needed if CCS Roadmap targets are to be met

Critical challenges need to be addressed globally if CCS is to play a significant role in reducing emissions OECD/IEA 2011 The critical challenges to meeting Roadmap goals are not purely technicalTechnologyFinancingLegal and regulatoryPublic education and engagementInternational collaboration

OECD/IEA 2011 Emphasize that Climate Policy is the key, and the only motivation for CCS!13Financing Actions and MilestonesDemonstrate a global, sustained commitment to reducing emissionsIncrease funding for CCS to an annual average investment of USD 3.5 4 billion between 2010 and 2020 in OECD countriesIncrease funding for CCS to an annual average investment of USD 1.5 2.5 billion between 2010 and 2020 in non-OECD countries (e.g. through CCS in the CDM/NAMA)Establish incentives to accelerate commercial CCS deployment beyond the demonstration phaseFund longer-term R&DAdditional investment of 2.5 3 trillion between 2010-2050 OECD/IEA 2011 14Legal and Regulatory Actions and MilestonesExisting legal and regulatory frameworks should be reviewed and adapted for CCS demonstration by 2011 in OECD countries and by 2015 in all countriesInternational legal issues need to be resolved by 2012All countries should have a legal and regulatory framework suitable for large-scale CCS deployment by 2020 OECD/IEA 2011 15Public Education and EngagementActions and MilestonesProvide greater (and earlier) information on projectsExpand government CCS education and engagement efforts; including early information about planned projectsFormalize international CCS public education and engagement network by 2010Develop a public engagement and communication toolkit by 2011Apply the toolkit to all large-scale CCS projects OECD/IEA 2011 Highlight WRI public engagement guidelines16International Collaboration Actions and MilestonesGrow CCS collaborative efforts, particularly in RD&DGCCSI, IEAGHG, CSLF, CO2CRC, USRCSP, NACAP etc.Create regional collaborative efforts to identify regional CO2 storage and transport planning needsExpand capacity building efforts in non-OECD countries with fossil fuel economies such as China, India, South AfricaCreate new CCS collaborative efforts for the most important industrial sectors by 2012 OECD/IEA 2011 17The next five to ten years are critical to progress for CCS and climate change mitigationThe CCS Roadmap presents an ambitious goal for CCS deployment

More projects are needed if CCS Roadmap targets are to be met

Critical challenges need to be addressed globally if CCS is to play a significant role in reducing emissions OECD/IEA 2011 Thank-you!Sean McCoy, Ph.D.International Energy AgencyEnergy Analyst, Legal & Regulatory IssuesTelephone: +33 (0)1 40 57 67 07Email: sean.mccoy@iea.orgWeb: www.iea.org/ccs/legal.asp OECD/IEA 2011 OECD/IEA 2011