identification of skills needs in europe cedefop – thessaloniki – 22-23 may 2003 linking...
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Identification of skills needs in EuropeCEDEFOP – Thessaloniki – 22-23 May 2003
Linking quantitative and qualitative prospects for “low-skilled” jobs
Géry Coomans Research Director of ISMEA
(Institut des Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées – Paris)
Change (%) in the size of the labour force per educational level(*)2000-2010-2020 (Age group 25-64)
EU15Low Medium High Total
2000-2010 -15 10 12 32010-2020 -17 3 4 -28 Accession countries (Cyprus and Malta excluded)
Low Medium High Total2000-2010 -27 6 9 22010-2020 -25 -10 -7 -11
Assumptions : constant 2000 activity rates per gender, 10-year age groups
and educational level (Low, Medium, High).
Source of data : 2000 activity rates as in Eurostat LFS 2000.
Demographic Projections : for EU15, Eurostat 2000 Baseline scenario;
for accession countries : UNO, WPP 2000 Rev., Medium Variant.
Quoted from G.Coomans, Strategic Labour Yearbook, 2003.
2,7 3,0
2,2
2,8
0,5
1,61,3 1,2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Low Medium High Total
2001-2010 2001-2020
Labour supply per educational level …Potential growth of employment per educational level
EU15 – 2001-2010-2020 (% p.a.)
Based on EU15 highest national employment rates per gender, 10-year age group and educational level as in 2001(Nordic Star)
1999-2001
Potential annual growth of employment (2000-2020) National averages and regional extremesEGP20T Total People with LOW educational attainment
EGP20M People with MEDIUM educational attainment EGP20H People with HIGH educational attainment
1,11,2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5S
IE
EC
ZD
KL
VS
EP
TN
LH
U FI
AT
LT
DE
UK
SK IT ES
FR
BE
PL
LU
GR IE CY
EU
15
Ne
w
1,8
0,5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
SI
SE
UK FI
GR PT
DK
NL
ES
FR IE CY
BE
AT IT LV LU
EE
CZ
DE
HU
PL
LT SK
EU
15N
ew
1,21,6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
EE SI
CZ
SE
DK
HU
LV NL FI
AT
DE
UK
SK
FR
PL
LT LU
BE IE IT ES
CY
GR PT
EU
15N
ew
0,5
1,3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
EE
LV CZ
HU LT DE
AT SI
IT DK
SK
NL FI
UK
PL
SE
BE
PT
LU
GR
ES
FR
CY IE
EU
15N
ew
1.2%
1.3%1.6%
0.5%
People with LOW educational attainment
1,8
0,5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
SI
SE
UK FI
GR PT
DK
NL
ES
FR IE CY
BE
AT IT LV LU
EE
CZ
DE
HU PL
LT SK
EU
15N
ew
Potential annual growth of employment 2000-2020
EU15 average : +0,5 %New MSs average : +1.8 %
LOW … per age group
EU15 average : -1.4% EU15 average : +0.7%
Estimates of future staff in ISCO-line 825
(Index 100 = year 2001) Male + Female
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Constant(2001) inflow Constant share inflow
Constant share inflow + trend
Age pyramid 1996-2001
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
1996 2001
0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,61,82,0
20_2
4
25_2
9
30_3
4
35_3
9
40_4
4
45_4
9
50_5
4
55_5
9
60_6
4
Male + Female
Country FR France
Isco code 825Isco line Printing-, binding- and paper-products
1996-2001
One example
Conclusions
Declining workforce – Ageing workforceJob mobility of low-skilled : high but due to decrease
Behaviours leading to heavy local impact of demographic shift :• stop-and-go recruiting• low professionalisation
Future trends : changing requirements, job assesment,competence recognition
Global frame : lifelong develoment of competences as a macro-need, not the least for low-skilled
Progressive internalisation within companies of LLLMulti-level bottlenecks (territorial/regional, SMEs, …)
Technical note :
Data for the past extracted from Eurostat Labour Force Survey
Demographic projections at national level :
EU15 : Eurostat 2000 Demographic Projections (Baseline Scenario)
Others : UN World Population prospects, 2000 Revision(Medium Variant)
At regional level : Estimates fromG. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply.
All projections per educational level : Estimates fromG. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply