ict 2012: a brief history
DESCRIPTION
Voice&Data TLF Awards 2012 Industry overview by PKRTRANSCRIPT
TelecomTelecom
a brief historya brief history
Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012
Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012
www.ciol.comwww.ciol.com
ICT
$163
BIC
T $1
63B
9.7%
of G
DP
9.7%
of G
DP
IT IT $76B Exports
$76B Exports $36B Domestic
$36B DomesticTelecom Telecom $24B Equipmt
$24B Equipmt$38B Services
$38B Services
12% CAGR over 2 yrs
IT C
ross
es $
100B
IT C
ross
es $
100B
Rev $B $ growth
Exports 76 16.5%Domestic 36 10.7%Total 112 14.7%
IT’s
24%
Dec
ade
IT’s
24%
Dec
ade
47/$ 48/$
Tele
com
Ind
ia:
Tele
com
Ind
ia:
5 yr
s, 7
%5
yrs,
7%
Tele
com
’11-
12
Tele
com
’11-
12…
flat
… fl
at
INR 296,000 cr3.6% growth
$B
Tele
com
’11-
12:
Tele
com
’11-
12:
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
NTP “2011”: NTP “2011”: ‘Will they, won’t they?’
‘Will they, won’t they?’ The industry froze
The industry froze No expansion
No expansion No new equipment
No new equipment No new investment
No new investment
Tele
com
’11-
12:
Tele
com
’11-
12:
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
2G scam ghost
2G scam ghost 122 licenses canceled
122 licenses canceled Many shut shop:
Many shut shop:S Tel, Etisalat, Swan
S Tel, Etisalat, Swan 2G auction ‘flop’
2G auction ‘flop’<10k cr (40k proj)
<10k cr (40k proj)
Tele
com
’11-
12:
Tele
com
’11-
12:
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
Cellular Cellular
65%65% of services industry
of services industry revenuerevenue
Tele
com
’11-
12:
Tele
com
’11-
12:
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
wha
t hap
pen
ed?
Mobile subscriptions
Mobile subscriptions dipped: 10-15 mn/month
dipped: 10-15 mn/month
to 5-6 mn/month
to 5-6 mn/month Consolidation:
Consolidation:150 handset brands
150 handset brands down to 15 brands
down to 15 brands
Con
solid
atio
n
Con
solid
atio
n
Handset brands
Handset brands < 2008
7 2008..2011 150 2012 15
Con
solid
atio
n
Con
solid
atio
n
OperatorsOperators< 2008< 2008
7 72008-20122008-2012
1616201220121212
20132013
1010 ? ?
Tari
ff H
ikes
Tari
ff H
ikes Airtel Jul ’11 R’com Sep ’12 Idea Apr ’12 Vodafone May ’12 rising costs, declinng ARPU
2013
: Roa
m F
ree
2013
: Roa
m F
ree Jan ’13
Jan ’13 (NTP ’12)(NTP ’12) Cut inactive, multi-SIM
Cut inactive, multi-SIM use, total #suse, total #s 77% active: 699 /
77% active: 699 / 906906 mn mn608608 mn people mn people
b
Broadband: Broadband:
E-k
iller
E-k
iller
BB’s
dat
a ca
pBB
’s d
ata
cap
Ek Tha Tiger:
Ek Tha Tiger:iTunes India Rs 80
iTunes India Rs 80(plus Rs 180 (plus Rs 180 broadband costs)
broadband costs)
http://kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends
http://kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends
SMS
@20
SM
S @
20 v
svs
Face
boo
k M
sgr
Face
boo
k M
sgr
8 tn SMS, 6 bn users
8 tn SMS, 6 bn users ‘‘SMS killer’?
SMS killer’?Facebook Messenger
Facebook Messenger launches India, targets
launches India, targets
‘next billion’‘next billion’
Last
Fro
ntie
r:
Last
Fro
ntie
r:E
nerg
yE
nerg
y
400k towers (Indus 120k)
400k towers (Indus 120k)
Tower-share (exc BSNL)
Tower-share (exc BSNL) 2 bn lit. diesel, Rs 10k cr
2 bn lit. diesel, Rs 10k cr 10k towers on
10k towers on alternative energy
alternative energy TAIPA: 50k towers on
TAIPA: 50k towers on renewable energy 2020
renewable energy 2020
ICT
2011
-202
0
ICT
2011
-202
0
Prasanto K Roy,
Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012Dec [email protected]
www.ciol.com