ic4d and digital forecast process evolution

IC4D IC4D and and Digital Digital ForecastForecastProcessProcessEvolutionEvolution

David Ruth October 2009David Ruth October 2009

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The Digital Forecast ProcessThe Digital Forecast Process

NumericalNumerical ModelingModeling

ObservationsObservations

NumericalNumerical OutputOutput

ModelModelInterpret.Interpret.

SensibleSensible WeatherWeather

ForecastForecast EditingEditing

Digital Digital ForecastForecast

Product Product GenerationGeneration

UserUserProductsProducts

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MatrixMatrix EditingEditing

The Human in the LoopThe Human in the Loop

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ICWF ICWF InteractiveInteractiveGuidanceGuidanceRevisorRevisor( 1987-2003 )( 1987-2003 )

Matrix EditingMatrix Editing

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Canada’sCanada’sSCRIBESCRIBE

Matrix EditingMatrix Editing

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GridGrid EditingEditing

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GraphicalGraphicalForecastForecastEditorEditor

Grid EditingGrid Editing

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KMAKMAGraphicGraphicEditingEditingModuleModule

Grid EditingGrid Editing

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ObjectObject EditingEditing



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Canada’sCanada’sForecast Forecast Production Production AssistantAssistant

Object EditingObject Editing

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ThresholdThresholdAdjustmentAdjustment




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IFPSIFPSSliderSliderBarsBars(1997-2003)(1997-2003)

Threshold AdjustmentThreshold Adjustment

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InteractiveInteractiveCalibrationCalibration of a of a4D Datacube4D Datacube

Threshold AdjustmentThreshold Adjustment

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IC4D for AAWUIC4D for AAWU

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4D Field4D FieldModificationModification





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UKMET 4D Field ModificationUKMET 4D Field Modification

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GridGrid EditingEditing GridGrid EditingEditing











4D Field4D FieldModificationModification




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Adapting the Forecast Process to Adapting the Forecast Process to Meet NextGen RequirementsMeet NextGen Requirements

• Existing forecaster tools not designed to meet Existing forecaster tools not designed to meet emerging NextGen requirementsemerging NextGen requirements

• Must extend digital services into the verticalMust extend digital services into the vertical

• Forecast Process SON is in the worksForecast Process SON is in the works

• Will document consistency, representativeness, spatial and Will document consistency, representativeness, spatial and temporal resolution, accuracy needstemporal resolution, accuracy needs

• Need to work methodology for meteorologist Need to work methodology for meteorologist contributions in 4-D domaincontributions in 4-D domain

• Expectations must be clear and reasonableExpectations must be clear and reasonable

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Exploring Forecaster’s RoleExploring Forecaster’s Role

• Challenge: Must deliver 4-D grids for the Weather Challenge: Must deliver 4-D grids for the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the 4-D Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS).Single Authoritative Source (SAS).

• How does the forecaster add value to the 4-D Grids?How does the forecaster add value to the 4-D Grids?• IC4D prototype provides one way to explore concept of IC4D prototype provides one way to explore concept of

operations for adding value in 4-D environmentoperations for adding value in 4-D environment

• Other alternatives (e.g., USAF) will also be exploredOther alternatives (e.g., USAF) will also be explored

• Process must be flexible, adaptable, and consistentProcess must be flexible, adaptable, and consistent

• Current IC4D work falls within OSIP Stage 2 -- Current IC4D work falls within OSIP Stage 2 -- Concept of Operations DevelopmentConcept of Operations Development

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IC4D Prototype IC4D Prototype

Graphical Turbulence in IC4D Graphical Turbulence in IC4D

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IC4D BackgroundIC4D Background

• Interactive Calibration of Grids in 4 Dimensions Interactive Calibration of Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) will allow forecasters to interactively adjust (IC4D) will allow forecasters to interactively adjust the interpretation of aviation model guidancethe interpretation of aviation model guidance

• Specify model (or blend of models) to use where and whenSpecify model (or blend of models) to use where and when• Adjust thresholds in algorithms that produce sensible weather Adjust thresholds in algorithms that produce sensible weather

(mountain turbulence, convective icing)(mountain turbulence, convective icing)• Adjust positioning or timing of eventsAdjust positioning or timing of events• Nudge model forecasts toward latest observations, radar, Nudge model forecasts toward latest observations, radar,

satellite, or more recent model guidancesatellite, or more recent model guidance

• Two test sites currently prepared to evaluate IC4DTwo test sites currently prepared to evaluate IC4D

• Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU)Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU)• WFO-HonoluluWFO-Honolulu

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IC4D Software DevelopmentIC4D Software Development

• MDL prototype software built MDL prototype software built on Graphical Forecast Editor on Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) used at WFOs(GFE) used at WFOs

• In development since 2004In development since 2004

• Model interpretation Model interpretation techniques were added to the techniques were added to the IC4D toolsetIC4D toolset

• Software infrastructure of the Software infrastructure of the GFE remains intact GFE remains intact

• Numerous other capabilities Numerous other capabilities have been added (e.g., have been added (e.g., observation plotting, PUFF observation plotting, PUFF volcanic ash dispersion volcanic ash dispersion guidance, SIGMET/AIRMET guidance, SIGMET/AIRMET product generation tools)product generation tools)

PUFF volcanic ash forecast for Mt RedoubtPUFF volcanic ash forecast for Mt Redoubt

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IC4D prototype in AlaskaIC4D prototype in Alaska

• Moves the AAWU into the gridded, digital forecast Moves the AAWU into the gridded, digital forecast world world

• Evaluates first steps of JPDO-NextGen 4D Cube goals Evaluates first steps of JPDO-NextGen 4D Cube goals and objectivesand objectives

• Enhances the automated verification of aviation Enhances the automated verification of aviation productsproducts

• Promotes a straightforward grid exchange and Promotes a straightforward grid exchange and collaboration mechanism among the AAWU and Alaska collaboration mechanism among the AAWU and Alaska field officesfield offices

• Furnished the capability to create internally consistent Furnished the capability to create internally consistent graphics and text graphics and text

• Provides the capacity to deliver output types compatible Provides the capacity to deliver output types compatible with multiple users systemswith multiple users systems

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How AK is using IC4D TodayHow AK is using IC4D Today Nudging Turbulence Forecast Towards Latest PIREPsNudging Turbulence Forecast Towards Latest PIREPs

Turbulence PIREP

locations

Forecaster interactively nudges forecast towards PIPEP values

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How AK is using IC4D TodayHow AK is using IC4D Today Adjusting RH Grids and Text GeneratorsAdjusting RH Grids and Text Generators

RH NAM 40km 625mb

Adjusted RH NAM 40km 625mb

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• Running two Running two domains in tandemdomains in tandem

• 20km resolution 20km resolution across much of the across much of the central and central and southern Pacificsouthern Pacific

• 2.5km resolution 2.5km resolution across the main across the main Hawaiian IslandsHawaiian Islands

IC4D prototype in HawaiiIC4D prototype in Hawaii

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• Using IC4D to create Using IC4D to create finer horizontal and finer horizontal and vertical resolution vertical resolution forecastforecast

• Transition San Transition San Francisco to Honolulu Francisco to Honolulu Route Forecast into Route Forecast into IC4DIC4D

• Forecasters can modify Forecasters can modify model headwind/ tailwind model headwind/ tailwind fieldsfields

• Crucial decision Crucial decision support to general support to general aviation transit aircraftaviation transit aircraft

IC4D prototype in HawaiiIC4D prototype in Hawaii

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What’s Next?What’s Next?

• MDL is tasked to continue IC4D development and MDL is tasked to continue IC4D development and support of test sites through next FY, proposed support of test sites through next FY, proposed through FY12through FY12

• Additional software capabilities Additional software capabilities

• Develop enhanced grid adjustment/calibration toolsDevelop enhanced grid adjustment/calibration tools

• Add new sources of aviation model guidance (e.g., High Add new sources of aviation model guidance (e.g., High Resolution Rapid Refresh)Resolution Rapid Refresh)

• Advanced visualization/data navigation capabilitiesAdvanced visualization/data navigation capabilities

• Test bed supportTest bed support

• Continue test and evaluation at AAWU and WFO-HFO. Continue test and evaluation at AAWU and WFO-HFO. Updates for software and hardware as available/neededUpdates for software and hardware as available/needed

• IC4D test bed at AWC. Planning underway, installation IC4D test bed at AWC. Planning underway, installation this fallthis fall

ic4d and digital forecast process evolution

Documents

dimensions ic4d

digital services

d grids

consistentcurrent ic4d

graphical forecast editor

d domainexpectations

d field modification

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