ibm science meeting
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ICT and Climate Change represents a huge opportunity for innovationTRANSCRIPT
ICT and Climate ChangeA Foundation for Innovation in Canada
Bill St. Arnaud
CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca
Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
Climate Forecasts
MIT
> MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C– 11C increase in Northern
Canada– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pub
s/abstract.php?publication_id=990
> Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today– Most of Canada was under 2-3
km ice– With BAU we are talking about
5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years
Climate Change is not reversible
> Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed
> GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate
> Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions
All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change
Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
j
15 - 20 tons/person
1 ton/person
2008 2050? 2100
2 tons/person
Source: Stern 2008
Our Challenge
80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050(Commitment made by G8 countries)
CO2 emissions from Information, Computer, Telecommunications (ICT)
> It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry 2-3%
> ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 – 6 years
> ICT represent 8-9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 8% of global electricity consumption
> Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US– http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724
> Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity– http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
*An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49
IT biggest power draw
Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%
Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%
Lighting11%Lighting11%
IT Equipment 30-40%
IT Equipment 30-40%
Other6%Other6%
Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006
Energy Consumption World Wide
Transportation
25%
Transportation
25%
Manufacturing25%
Manufacturing25%
Buildings50%Buildings50%
Energy Consumption Typical Building
Growth ProjectionsData Centers
> Half of ICT consumption is data centers
> 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*
> By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*
> During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption*
> Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)
Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
Impact of Cap and Trade on Business and Telecom
> Company Servers Electricity Cost> http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf
– Microsoft >200K >6×105 MWh >$36M– Google >500K >6.3×105 MWh >$38M– MIT campus 2.7×105MWh $62M
> “Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade
– Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices)
> 30% of electricity will come from renewable sources– Greater degree of unreliability and uncertainty in power
Carbon Footprint by state
The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency
> Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes
> This is akin to smoking milder cigarettes in order to avoid cancer– Does not address the real problem
> But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency– Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart
homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc
> Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect)– In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which
mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances– Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required
for appliances– Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances
The Carbon Economy
> $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050
> $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits
by 2030
> Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion
> Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT– US market estimated at $700 billion
– http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/
> Obama’s cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters to
spend $1.25 on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission permits
Source: ClimateCheck
> Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically
> ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES–-Cooling also a major problem in cities
> But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.– Can be easily reached by an optical network– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site
> ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
Innovation Opportunity – Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure
Many examples already
Hydro-electric powered data centers
Data IslandiaDigital Data Archive
ASIO solar powered data centers
Wind powered data centersEcotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user
Ontario Government announcement on low carbon data centers
> McGuinty Government Supports Local Economy And Innovation
> New low carbon data centres that provide alternative, less expensive and greener
data storage facilities are being studied in Thunder Bay.
> Rapidly growing global demands on the data management sector have resulted in increased energy consumption to operate and manage these large amounts of data, as well as to maintain proper climatic conditions at data storage facilities.
> This exciting project will not only research the economic development potential of establishing low carbon data centres in Northern Ontario, it will also investigate opportunities for transferring the excess energy to other public facilities. That means everyone involved could experience reduced operating costs.”– -Michael Gravelle, Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry, and Chair of the NOHFC– ontario.ca/north-news
Innovation Opportunity – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only
> 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
> How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?– Ebbing wind or setting sun
> Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
> Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and
data sets from site to site
Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures
> Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers– http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf– Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green
data centers at only a 3% cost increase
> Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems– Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time
of the day and energy prices are low– Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices– 45% maximum savings in energy costs– http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf– http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/
> Computing for the future of the planet– http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/– http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind
CANARIE Green-IT Pilot
> $3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed
> Two objectives:– Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero
carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network– Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent
in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers
> International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia
PROMPT – Next Generation Internet to Reduce Global Warming
Research on router, optical, W/W-less and distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc.
Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.
Sources: GENI and Inocybe
Innovation Opportunity: Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce”
> Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
> Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?
> Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc
> Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
Final remarks
> The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions
> Think carbon, not energy
> We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020
> 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks
> Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources and “gCommerce” applications in helping other sectors of society reduce their carbon footprint
Thank you
> More information> List server on Green IT
– Send e-mail to [email protected]
> http://green-broadband.blogspot.com> http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/
>