IASSIST 2005 Evidence and Enlightenment

The production and presentation of unemployment statistics –

comparability issues

By John Adams (Napier University, Scotland), Hasan Al-Madfai (University ofGlamorgan, Wales) and Ray Thomas (Open University, England)

Percentage unemployment rate - top six and bottom

six

0 10 20 30 40

Macedonia

Namibia

South Africa

Algeria

Guadeloupe

Palestine

Mexico

Cambodia

Guatemala

Thailand

Azerbaijan

Kuwait

Country

000s % 000s %

United Kingdom 1,414 4.8 946 3.1 ClaimantsUnited States 8,774 6.0 2,598 2.0 Insured

Germany 4,023 10.0 4,207 11.2 RegisteredRussia 6,303 8.9 1,123 — Registered

Japan 3,500 5.3 — —India 16,634 4.3 41,344 — Work applicants

South Africa 4,570 28.4 — —China — — 7,700 4.0 Major cities

Admin measuresunemploymentILO

Dimensions of comparability

• Conceptual

• Boundaries

• Entry and duration

• Denominators

• Influence

ILO/survey criteria

• Not in employment/available to start work

• Seeking work main criterion

• Advantages – universal/independence from admin schemes

• Disadvantages – fuzzy/bends towards exits/incompatible with admin schemes

CPS questions on employment

• LAST WEEK, did you do ANY work for (either) pay (or profit) ?

• LAST WEEK, did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm ?

The entry oversight

•Question on unemployment addressed only to those already unemployed•Misses entry to unemployment•Duration statistics relate only to uncompleted spells•Miss unemployment of less than four weeks

Exits from unemployment before four weeks compared

with stock and monthly entrants - Great Britain

0

10

20

30

40Ju

n-83

Jun-

86

Jun-

89

Jun-

92

Jun-

95

Jun-

98

Jun-

01

Jun-

04

Exi

ts a

s %

of s

tock

and

as

% o

f mon

thly

ent

rant

s

Entry oversight (cont’d)

• Misses a forward indicator

• Misses ‘reasons’ for unemployment

• Misses link with other labour market ‘states’

Unemployment rates and entry rates parliamentary constituency areas of the UK in

2004

South Sheilds

Belfast W

Ladywood

Sparkbrook

Kensington & Chelsea

Brent E

Burnley

Cunning-hame S

Gosport

Camberwell

Tottenham

Manch Central

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Entry to unemployment rate

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te

R = 0.892

1996 2004

Average unemployment rate 5.87 2.39(population of working age denominators)

42.4 54.4

(percentages)

Unemployment among the 659 parliamentaryconstituency areas in the UK 1996 and 2004

Coefficient of variation

Measures of long-term unemployment (rates LH scale, numbers RH scale)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Thou

sand

s un

empl

oyed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Long

-term

rate

LAPU

PAR rate

Unemp < year

Unemployment rates for 2004

2.89 to 9.94 (132)1.95 to 2.89 (131)1.3 to 1.95 (133)0.57 to 1.3 (133)

Reforms for the LFS

• Recognise entry to unemployment and reasons for unemployment with questions to all respondents.

• Embrace not ignore administrative systems

• Use administrative records as part of sampling frame.