iaph-wpsp port economic impact barometer · 06/07/2020 · 4. impact on availability of...

IAPH-WPSP Port Economic Impact Barometer Authors : Professor Theo Notteboom (Shanghai Maritime University, Ghent University and University of Antwerp)

Professor Thanos Pallis (University of the Aegean and Universidad de Los Andes)

6 July 2020

Africa South East Asia / Australasia (including New Zealand and Pacific Islands)

North Asia (including China, Korea and Japan)

North America (U.S. and Canada)Middle East / Central Asia (including Arabian Gulf and Indian Subcontinent)

EuropeCentral and South America

By: Theo Notteboom - Thanos Pallis

5.6%

32.2%

41.1%

3.3%

6.7%

11.1%

0%

Participating ports per region(N=90; data collection: 30 June 2020)

Container vessels

Other cargo vessels

Passenger vessels

Trucks (cross-border)

Trucks (in/out port)

Rail services

Inland barge services

Foodstuff & medical supplies

Consumer products

Liquid bulk

Dry bulk

Dock workers

Technical-nautical services

Harbor master services

Port authority

Truck drivers

Week 15WorldApril 6

Week 16World

April 13

Week 17World

April 20

Week 18World

April 27

Week 19WorldMay 5

Week 20WorldMay 12

Week 21WorldMay 19

Week 23WorldJune 2

Ports with decline in vessel calls (last week compared to normal conditions, %)

Ports facing hinterland transport delays (last week compared to normal conditions, %)

Ports facing high capacity utilization of warehousing and storage facilities (last week, %)

Ports facing shortages in port-related workers (last week, %)


43%

46%

68%

26%

15%

17%

21%

20%

9%

17%

13%

17%

6%

8%

22%

9%

41%

41%

77%

43%

37%

28%

41%

35%

27%

21%

16%

16%

7%

4%

28%

no data

41%

39%

77%

41%

33%

21%

23%

34%

28%

22%

17%

16%

9%

8%

22%

no data

53%

47%

76%

35%

35%

32%

40%

33%

25%

20%

13%

16%

4%

7%

22%

21%

39%

44%

71%

37%

35%

13%

21%

25%

18%

15%

12%

22%

12%

10%

26%

16%

45%

42%

85%

38%

16%

22%

19%

25%

19%

20%

17%

19%

11%

4%

16%

12%

45%

42%

74%

23%

8%

14%

20%

16%

13%

17%

9%

13%

7%

5%

12%

10%

Week 25World

June 16

Week 27World

June 16

53%

51%

73%

28%

23%

19%

20%

14%

12%

13%

10%

16%

8%

10%

12%

11%

48%

33%

78%

28%

11%

13%

18%

8%

10%

16%

18%

13%

7%

4%

21%

3%

40%

33%

64%

15%

15%

8%

3%

15%

12%

16%

15%

14%

7%

6%

8%

7%

WPSP-IAPH COVID-19 Dashboard

Results based on surveys of ports worldwide, ten survey weeks to July 1, 2020

This dashboard provides a visual summary of the results gathered from the IAPH-WPSP COVID-19 Port Economic Impact Barometer survey. The survey initially consisted of six identical questions, sent to port authorities and port operators with responses sent anonymously on a weekly basis. From week 23 onwards, the survey has been sent out on a bi-weekly basis and the number of questions has been reduced to four. A fifth question was added this week dealing with the status on crew changes in the ports.

The percentages indicated in the blue bars of the Dashboard highlight the level of impact of COVID19 contagion on world ports based on the responses to the main four questions of the survey, subdivided into relevant categories (vessel, modal, cargo and port worker). The results on the crew changes will be discussed using a separate graph. You can find comprehensive data and more detailed explanations of responses to the five questions in this report.

Survey set-upThe IAPH-WPSP survey on the impact of COVID-19 is conducted with the aim of monitoring the current situation in world ports and trends compared to previous weeks. The first survey results were collected in week 15 of 2020 (April 6). This week’s results deal with the situation in week 27 (July 1, 2020). A total of 90 valid answers were received which is the second highest number since the survey began.

Europe continues to be the leading region with 41% of the total. A total of 29 ports from Central and South America (32% of total) responded, which is a further increase compared to 13 to 18 answers in weeks 20 to 25. North America also remains fairly well represented with 10 ports (11%). Only 9 ports from North Asia, South East Asia and Australasia are included in this week’s results. African ports remain underrepresented with only 5 ports, while no answers were received from ports of the Middle East or Central Asia.

1. Impact of crisis on vessel callsBlank sailings, mainly on trade routes with the Far East, continue to affect this week’s results for container vessels. About 35% of the ports are reporting that the number of container vessel calls fell by 5% to 25% compared to a normal situation. This figure is much lower than the 45% in weeks 21 and 25, and also below the 38-39% in the first weeks of the survey in early April. The share of ports facing a significant drop (in excess of 25%) in container vessels calls remains at 4%, a figure that is about 6 percentage points below the results of weeks 17, 18 and 20, but still significantly higher than what we could observe in weeks 15 and 16. The share of ports reporting reductions in other cargo vessel calls of more than 25% gradually decreased from 16% in week 21 to 4% in week 25, which is also far below the 12 to 15% observed throughout weeks 16 to 20. However, in week 27 the figure is up again to reach 8%. This development is mainly due to a deterioration of the situation in Central and South America, i.e. there were no ports in this region facing a drop of other cargo vessel calls in excess of 25% in week 25 compared to 14% in week 27. Globally, some 54% of the ports are now reporting that the number of calls by other cargo vessels is rather stable compared to a normal situation, a figure that is comparable to the situation in the first weeks of the survey.

The cruise/passenger market remains the most affected by the COVID-19 contagion, although this week’s results show a clear improvement compared to the past weeks. In week 27, 52% of respondents indicate that passenger vessel calls are down more than 50%, in many cases even down more than 90%. Since week 20, this figure was 61-62% while in weeks 15 to 18 this figure amounted to two thirds of respondents with a peak of 76% in week 19.

More ports than in any of the past surveys reported a return to ‘business as normal’ as regards the number of cargo vessels calls. Nonetheless, while cargo vessels beyond containerships increasingly arrive at the same numbers as the year before, the container trades continue to suffer from blank sailings. As reported, during the last week container ports experienced another wave of cancellations from many carriers. For these ports July seems to be similarly complicated, although industry reports predict a lower number of blank sailings to take place in Q3 2020. The current situation has serious consequences on container terminals. Ultra large container ships (ULCS) calls are less in numbers but are filled up with more cargo. Major container ports in both North America and Europe report that the average moves per ULCS per call have reached 10.000 TEUs. This creates peaks in both ship-to-ship operations and yard activity at the terminals. This also starts to have an impact on landside operations, as the use of technology for notifications and cargo release for hinterland transportation might not always be sufficient. Ports report that it takes days to have the situation back under control at the yard and gates and lost movements of cargo are on the rise. The workforce in some ports is under pressure as peaks on some days are followed by several days off duty.

Ro/Ro and passenger traffic, which has been massively impacted by COVID19 in recent weeks, has seen some renewed activity. Some ports have seen increases exceeding expected calls by up to 60%. More and more countries re-start the temporarily suspended operations of passenger ships. This recovery however might not be a full one. Even

though passenger vessel calls have recovered, the number of passengers on board these vessels in many cases is still more than 60% less than a year before. In some countries this is also due to restrictions that prevent passenger vessels from carrying more than 50 to 60% of their capacity.

Cruise ship calls have decreased to almost zero. Several cruise lines have announced the cancellation of their operations until autumn, or even 2021, while some countries have officially announced that there will be no cruise operations for the coming months.A handful of small cruise vessels are in operation.

50%

40%

30%

20%

60%

70%

80%

90%

10%

0%


Other cargoContainers Passenger

W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W23 W25 W27

Ports where the number of ship calls is lower than in normal conditions

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%


How would you describe the number of vessel calls in your port in the past week, compared to activity during normal conditions?

More than 50% decrease

25 to 50% decrease5 to 25% decrease

More than 50% increase 25 to 50% increase

Rather stable situation5 to 25% increase

W15(n=56)

2%

39%

52%

7%

W15(n=47)

4%

4%6%

66%

17%

2%

W23(n=66)

5%

8%

62%

20%

2%2%3%

W27(n=52)

4%

8%

52%

29%

2%6%

W15(n=61)

54%

34%

2%5%

5%

Container vessels Other cargo vessels Passenger vessels

W23(n=100)

50%

31%

1%

10%

8%

W27(n=87)

54%

25%

3%5%

W23(n=83)

39%

49%

1%5%

5%1%

W27(n=68)

35%

47%

10%

4%

W19(n=60)

43%

47%

2%7%

2%

W19(n=76)

47%

32%

4%7%

1%9%

W19(n=46)

9%

76%

11%

2%2%

1% 1%10%

1% 1%

Inland transport volumes continue to increase as a result of the full or partial reopening of economies. One significant observation is that ports have reported much less cross border truck transportation delays in past two weeks. It is worth monitoring the impact of the expected rise of cargo transportation, as well as that of the recent reopening of cross-border tourist movements in conditions of increased controls.

25%

20%

15%

10%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

5%

0%


W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W23 W25 W27

Ports reporting hinterland transport delays compared to normal activity (%)

Barge servicesRail services

On the other hand, ports are reporting a worsening situation overall for trucks entering and leaving ports in the last five weeks, with a V-shape in delays from a low of 8.4% in week 23 to 14.6% this week which is almost back to the level in week 20. Reported issues of concern include potential disruptions due to the need to isolate increased numbers of truck drivers testing positive, as well as the congestion problems due to essential road maintenance, given that these works did not take place in the recent times due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Now that cargo is back on the rise and passengers and tourists start moving via ports, keeping major lanes/roads closed to traffic has already started creating serious delays for freight transportation to/from ports as well as passengers to/from ferries. These concerns are intensifying given the current instructions to the general public to avoid public transportation combined with the preference of the general public to opt for using private means of transportation. Traffic congestion in port-cities is on the increase.

Some extra minor delays – e.g. of no more than one hour per truck – have also been recorded due to the registration of the entry and exit of the trucks at the port gates. Further clarity on all these trends is expected in the coming weeks, assuming that further improvement of transported volumes will take place.

Rail services to/from ports are increasingly back to normal, and for the first time the percentage of ports that faces less rail service delays than in the same period last year has reached a single digit (8%). The situation is even better in the case of inland barge transportation.

2. Impact of crisis on hinterland transportBorder checks, a lower availability of truck drivers and disruptions in terminal operations can negatively affect trucking operations in/out of the port area and to the hinterland. Just like two weeks ago, only 4% of the ports are still in a precarious position, reporting delays (6-24 hours) or heavy delays (> 24 hours) in cross-border road transportation. This figure is far below the 12% share in week 21 and 18 to 20% in weeks 18 to 19.

About 8 out of 10 ports witness a return to normal operations in cross-border transport by truck or are already back to a normal situation. This is the highest figure since the start of the survey and much higher than 63% in week 25, indicating that the situation shows a strong improvement overall. In early April (week 15), only 57% of the ports were experiencing normal cross-border trucking operations.

For trucks arriving or leaving the port, there is an improvement overall despite the spike in delays the last two weeks: 85% of ports report normal activity versus 78% in week 21 and only 63% in week 15. Some 8% of ports still face disruptions in rail services, by far the lowest figure to date. The situation for barge services is also evolving positively: 97% of ports are reporting normal operations, compared to 82% two weeks ago and only 59% at the start of the survey.

25%

20%

15%

10%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

5%

0%


Trucks (in-out port area)Trucks (cross-border)

W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W23 W25 W27

Ports reporting hinterland transport delays compared to normal activity (%)

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

How has hinterland transport been affected by the COVID-19 situation compared to normal activity during the past week?

Major disruptions (>24 hrs)

Discontinued operations

Return to normal

No changes

Delays (6-24 hrs)

Minor delays (< 6 hrs)

W15(n=37)

14%

8%3%

19%

57%

W23(n=64)

3%2%2%

17%

67%

9%

W27(n=54)

2%2%

11%

80%

6%

2%

2%

19%

17%

61%

W15(n=54)

1%1%6%

72%

20%

W23(n=95)

15%

68%

17%

W27(n=82)

15%

8%

69%

3%3%

W15(n=39)

4%4%

59%

33%

W15(n=27)

2%5%

68%

12%

12%

W23(n=41)

84%

13%

3%

W27(n=31)

3%

6%3%

70%

16%

3%2%

W23(n=40)

79%

13%

4%4%

W27(n=49)


Trucks (cross border) Trucks (in/out port area) Rail services Barge services

W19(n=50)

10%

2%6%

20%

62%

4%1%

11%

74%

10%

W19(n=73)

14%

4%

72%

6%

4%

W19(n=50)

6%3%

81%

9%

W19(n=32)

Warehousing and distribution activities in ports may see changes due to the fall in demand for consumer products or the closure of factories in countries with partial or full lockdown measures. Tank storage parks for liquid bulk, and oil products in particular, might see changes in their utilization degree caused by the sharp decline in the oil price and in the use of kerosene, diesel and gasoline.

This week’s survey results show the COVID19 crisis has resulted in 15% of ports reporting an increase in utilization of warehousing and distribution facilities for foodstuffs and medical supplies. Due to the increase in demand for food, ports serving such cargo have reported moving more than ever before (in tons). This figure is higher than two weeks ago (8%) but still far below the 35% in week 15. For consumer goods, 17% of ports are confronted with underutilized facilities and only 12% report increases in utilization. It is the sixth survey week in a row that we have more ports facing underutilization than higher utilization levels. The reverse situation was observed in weeks 15 to 17 with only 10 to 14% of respondents witnessing underutilization and 25 to 28% of ports mentioning an increased usage of facilities or even capacity shortages.

In the liquid bulk market, 71% of the respondents see no changes in utilization levels, a sharp increase compared to the 59-63% range in all other survey weeks. Only 13% of ports are reporting underutilization of liquid bulk storage facilities (compared to a 15-26% range in the first nine survey weeks). Reduced loading and unloading operations are

3. Impact on capacity utilization including warehousing and distribution activities

25%

20%

15%

10%

30%

35%

5%

0%


ConsumerFoodstuffs and medical Liquid

W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W23 W25 W27

Ports reporting capacity underutilization compared to normal activity (%)

Dry Bulk

resulting in minor underutilization of existing facilities. The share of ports with increased utilization levels in liquid bulk storage facilities remained stable at 16%.

In the dry bulk sector, 15% of the ports report an underutilization of facilities compared to a 17-32% range in the first nine survey weeks. The share of ports with increased utilization levels in dry bulk storage reached 15% compared to 18% two weeks ago.

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

What is this week’s situation in terms of capacity utilization, including warehousing and distribution activities in your port?

Capacity shortages

Under-utilization

Severe under-utilization

Operations discontinued

Minor under-utilization

Rather stable

Major increase in utilization

Increase in utilization

Minor increase in utilization


W15(n=51)

10%

55%

10%

10%

14%

2%

W23(n=84)

6%2%

76%

4%2%

10%

W27(n=67)

15%

3%

67%

1% 3%4%6%

Foodstuffs and essential medical supplies

62%

8%

4%

8%

12%

8%

W15(n=52)

67%

8%

13%

1%

6%6%

W23(n=87)

71%

6%

12%

4%6%

1%

W27(n=69)

Consumer goods

63%

4%6%

2%

10%

4%

W15(n=48)

10%

61%

8%5%

13%

9%

W23(n=76)

1%3%

71%

10%

5%

10%

2%2%

W27(n=63)

2%

Liquid bulk

16%

6%

2%6%

8%

63%

W15(n=51)

19%

6%1% 1%

3%3%

2%

64%

W23(n=90)

5%

7%

3%

5%8%

1%

70%

W27(n=74)

Dry bulk

W19(n=61)

5%2%

69%

11%

8%

3%2%

60%

5%

16%

6%

8%

5%

W19(n=75)

65%

5%

11%

8%

8%

W19(n=65)

3%2%

7%

10%1%

6%4%

7%

65%

W19(n=72)

4. Impact on availability of port-related workersThe measures to fight the COVID-19 outbreak up until now have not had a huge impact on the availability of port-related workers. About 14% of the ports mention that they face shortages of dockworkers (only slightly above the figures of weeks 23 and 25 which were the lowest shares since the start of the survey). Only 7% of the sample face shortages for the delivery of technical-nautical services, a figure that has remained stable in the past four weeks. Some 6% of ports are short of personnel in the harbour master division. Only 8% of the port authorities report a moderate to more serious decline in staff availability, the lowest figure to date (i.e. 12% in weeks 23 and 25, 26% in week 18, 22% in weeks 16 and 17 and 28% in week 15). The availability of truck drivers has gone down a bit: 7% of the ports face truck driver shortages compared to 3% two weeks ago and 21% in week 17. Central and South American ports saw an increase in truck driver shortages from 6% in week 25 to 15% in week 27. In Europe, only 3% of the ports report truck driver shortages while none of the North American ports faces shortages.

An increased number of administrative staff are progressively returning to the office, while others keep home office for a few days a week. The former trend is expected to continue in coming weeks. However on several ports, the personnel of the port authorities continue to work from home, especially those in risk groups. As regards dockworkers, there are still cases where dockworkers over 60 years old have to stay at home in compliance with the measures taken by national governments, although the remaining availability matches demand and there are no severe shortages. Due to personnel shortages, one port reported that mooring activities which were previously performed by the port authority are slowly being transferred to private operators. Ports that have run a testing campaign and identified few confirmed cases and /or cases of “immunity” are now evaluating the results and structuring the next steps, probably with a new testing methodology considering the lessons learned. For the moment, there are reported cases of ports that have reduced the number of port workers per shift in order to avoid possible COVID-19 infections.

The suspension of cruise activities has started to have its impact on employment. In one port last week most of the cruise staff was laid off. Other cruise-related business activities

and some of the administrative employees were laid off as well, as the port expects very few to no cruise vessels at all this year.

Employment at cargo ports has not remained unaffected. On the one hand, one port reported the layoff of a number of port-related workers (container terminal) due to lower cargo volumes.

On the other hand, peaks of cargo at some container terminals are creating pressure on the dockworker pool. Relatively few workers are being asked to work overtime while many others are required to resort to public aid/social salaries due to lack of job opportunities. The interchange of workers according to skills and qualifications, which could address such situations, is currently limited.

25%

20%

15%

10%

30%

5%

0%


Technical-nautical workersDockworkers Harbor masters services

W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W23 W25 W27

Ports reporting shortage of port-related workers (%)

Port Authority Truck Drivers

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

What was the availability of port workers last week?

Shortages Severe shortagesModerate shortagesReturn of all to work Major return to work Moderate return to work Normal presence

W15(n=57)

2%

14%

7%

72%

5%

W23(n=102)

2%3%8%

4%3%

73%

8%

W27(n=87)

1%2%

10%

2%2%

74%

8%

W23(n=102)

1% 1%5%

1%3%

81%

8%

W27(n=87)

1%2%3%

85%

6%2%

W23(n=102)

2% 1%2%

3%3%

80%

9%

W27(n=87)

1%2%

2%

85%

7%2%

W23(n=102)

9%2%1%

7%

10%

69%

3%

W27(n=87)

7%1%

3%

6%

7%

76%

W23(n=102)

7%1%2%

2%4%

77%

7%

W27(n=87)

1%6%

5%

82%

7%

84%

5%2%

4%5%

W15(n=57)

86%

5%

2%2%

W15(n=57)

25%

2%2%

5%2%

65%

W15(n=57)

19%

1%

1%1%

76%

W17(n=68)

5%


Dock workers Technical-nautical services (pilots, tugboat and mooring crews)

Harbor master services (includingVTS operators)

Port Authority Truck Drivers

W19(n=75)

3%

16%

3%

11%

64%

4%

81%

1%9%

4%1%3%

W19(N=75)

87%

5%

4%

W19(n=75)

4%

12%

3%1%

4%1%

13%

65%

W19(n=75)

7%4%1%

3%3%4%

79%

W19(n=75)

The survey revealed that some crew change operations have taken place for all types of vessels, including break bulkers, container ships, cruise ships, as well as drilling vessels operating for offshore oil and gas projects. The main problem for such operations seems to lay with the conditions prevailing beyond the port. More specifically, most ports report that crew changes are permitted by port authorities and immigration offices, however there are no regular/commercial international flights for completing the operation. In one case the nearest international airport in operation was reported to be 1.600 km away with private car/bus hire to transfer crew being the only way of transportation. In another case, state regulators do not allow international crew to travel on domestic flights unless a 14-day isolation period has passed.

There are countries though where no crew change is allowed, or ports where the maritime sanitary authority has not established the protocol for crew changes. In other countries there is a clear distinction between vessels based on their flag: foreign-flagged vessels are not allowed to change crews, but nationally registered vessels are able to change

6. Call for ports to participate in this surveyThis bi-weekly report will now be published on the World Ports COVID19 INFORMATION PORTAL under the FAQ section “WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL PORT SECTOR?”

All ports are encouraged to participate in this survey by contacting us on the following email : [email protected]

5. Crew changesFrom this survey week onward, the IAPH-WPSP survey on the impact of COVID-19 includes a question on the situation in terms of crew changes in the responding ports. The figure below shows the results for the world and specific regions. On a global scale, 55% of ports in the survey reported no crew changes have taken place in week 27. In one third of the ports, a very limited number of crew changes have occurred (less than 5). When comparing regions, European ports show the best picture in terms of the crew change situation, although 6 out of 10 European ports only recorded less than a handful of crew changes in the past week. In North America, crew changes are at a very low level with 57% of ports indicating there have not been any crew changes in week 27. No crew changes have taken place in the 29 responding ports from Central and South America. The above figures show the crew change situation remains very precarious, particularly in the Americas.

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%


How many successful crew change operations took place in your port last week? (week 27, 2020)

More than 10

6 to10

None

1 to 5

9%

4%

32%

55%

12%

12%

59%

18%

43%

57%

100%

20%

20%

60%

World Europe North America Central and SouthAmerica

Other regions

nationals onboard. These crew members might even travel further as long as they confirm their marine credentials and carry letters from the employer at border controls. The reopening of borders and a relaxation of international air travel are expected to have a decisive impact, providing the conditions for further crew changes to take place.

https://sustainableworldports.org/world-ports-covid19-information-portal/

iaph-wpsp port economic impact barometer · 06/07/2020 · 4. impact on availability of...

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