I S A A A

Global Adoption, Impact and Future Global Adoption, Impact and Future Prospects of Commercialized Prospects of Commercialized GM/Biotech Crops, 1996 - 2007GM/Biotech Crops, 1996 - 2007

Istanbul Forum, Turkey, April, 2008 Istanbul Forum, Turkey, April, 2008

Global Adoption, Impact and Future Global Adoption, Impact and Future Prospects of Commercialized Prospects of Commercialized GM/Biotech Crops, 1996 - 2007GM/Biotech Crops, 1996 - 2007

Istanbul Forum, Turkey, April, 2008 Istanbul Forum, Turkey, April, 2008

byby

Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of DirectorsClive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors

International Service for the Acquisition

of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA)

http://www.isaaa.org

byby

Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of DirectorsClive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors

International Service for the Acquisition

of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA)

http://www.isaaa.org

I S A A A

I S A A A

• NO SINGLE APPROACHNO SINGLE APPROACH will allow food, feed, and fiber production will allow food, feed, and fiber production to be doubled to be doubled SUSTAINABLYSUSTAINABLY by 2050 for 9 billion people by 2050 for 9 billion people

• Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop production by 2050 – production by 2050 – GM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEAGM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEA but but importantimportant

• Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that address all the principal issues that include:address all the principal issues that include:

• Population Stabilization Population Stabilization

• Improved food distribution systemsImproved food distribution systems

• A Technology Component is A Technology Component is ESSENTIAL ESSENTIAL-- A crop -- A crop improvement improvement STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of CONVENTIONAL AND the BEST of BIOTECH CONVENTIONAL AND the BEST of BIOTECH to optimize to optimize productivity to productivity to CONTRIBUTECONTRIBUTE to food feed, fiber & biofuel to food feed, fiber & biofuel securitysecurity

A Food, Feed, & Fiber Strategy to A Food, Feed, & Fiber Strategy to Double Global Production by 2050 Double Global Production by 2050

I S A A A

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

International Cereal Prices 2006-2008

2006 2007 2008

US$/tonne

Source: FAO, Feb. 2008

Rice

Wheat

Maize

I S A A A

Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2007:by Country

I S A A A

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

666 million hectares

= 1.6 billion acres

M Acres

1729

1235

988

494

741

247

0

1482

1976

Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996 to 2007 (Million Hectares)

Source: Clive James, 2007

I S A A A

• 114.3 million hectares planted globally 12.3 million ha increase - 12% - 2nd highest in 5 years

• 114.3 m. has in 23 countries, Chile and Poland new countries in 2007

• Fastest adoption rate of any crop technology • 12 mill. Farmers planted biotech crops in 2007 , - 90%

or 11mill. are resource-poor farmers – 1st time to exceed 10 million small farmers in dev. countries

• Of 6.5 billion global population 55%, equivalent to 3.6 billion, lived in the 23 biotech countries in 2007 Source: Clive James 2008

• 114.3 million hectares planted globally 12.3 million ha increase - 12% - 2nd highest in 5 years

• 114.3 m. has in 23 countries, Chile and Poland new countries in 2007

• Fastest adoption rate of any crop technology • 12 mill. Farmers planted biotech crops in 2007 , - 90%

or 11mill. are resource-poor farmers – 1st time to exceed 10 million small farmers in dev. countries

• Of 6.5 billion global population 55%, equivalent to 3.6 billion, lived in the 23 biotech countries in 2007 Source: Clive James 2008

2007 Highlights -- 2007 Highlights -- Area continues to soarArea continues to soar

I S A A A

• IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOMEIMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Increased yields of 5 – Increased yields of 5 to 50%. Farm income gains of to 50%. Farm income gains of $7 billion in 2006$7 billion in 2006 & $34 billion & $34 billion 1996-2006; $17.5 billion in industrial, $16.5 billion in dev countries 1996-2006; $17.5 billion in industrial, $16.5 billion in dev countries

• PROTECT BIODIVERSITYPROTECT BIODIVERSITY - Double crop production on same area - Double crop production on same area of land - of land - save the forests/biodiversity - 13m ha loss/year in DCs save the forests/biodiversity - 13m ha loss/year in DCs

• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT - Reduce need for external inputs - Reduce need for external inputs - - Saving of 289,000 MT a.i. pesticidesSaving of 289,000 MT a.i. pesticides from 1996 to from 1996 to

20062006- - Saved 15 bill kg C0Saved 15 bill kg C022 in 2006- in 2006- 6.5m less cars - climate change 6.5m less cars - climate change

- Conservation of soil & WATER = SUSTAINABILITY- Conservation of soil & WATER = SUSTAINABILITY

• SOCIAL BENEFITSSOCIAL BENEFITS - Contribution to alleviation of poverty of 11 million small - Contribution to alleviation of poverty of 11 million small

farmers in 2007, compared with 9.3 million in farmers in 2007, compared with 9.3 million in 2006 2006

-Improved environment & socio-economic benefits Improved environment & socio-economic benefits -More affordable food, feed, fiber and fuelMore affordable food, feed, fiber and fuel

Impact of Biotech CropsImpact of Biotech Crops Source; Compiled by Clive James , 2008Source; Compiled by Clive James , 2008

I S A A A

ALL COUNTRIESUSA Argentina China Brazil India Canada Others

Source: Brookes and Barfoot 2008

1996-2006 2006

$ 33.7 billion$ 15.9 billion $ 6.6 billion$ 5.8 billion $ 1.9 billion $ 1.3 billion $ 1.2 billion $ 1.0 billion

$ 7.0 billion $ 2.9 billion $1.3 billion $0.8 billion 0.6 billion

$0.8 billion $0.3 billion $0.3 billion

Biotech Crops – Global Economic Benefits:Biotech Crops – Global Economic Benefits:1996 to 2006, and 2006 – Lead countries 1996 to 2006, and 2006 – Lead countries

I S A A A

Source: Clive James, 2007

# of Biotech Countries

# of Farmers Planting Biotech Crops

Global Biotech Area

2007 2015

23

12 million

114 million hectares

~ 40

up to 100 million

~ 200 millionhectares

Projections for the 2Projections for the 2ndnd Decade, 2006 - 2015 Decade, 2006 - 2015

I S A A A

Increase of 12%, 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres), between 2006 and 2007.

Source: Clive James, 2007.

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPSMillion Hectares (1996 to 2007)

23 Biotech Crop Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total

Industrial

Developing