i dewa gede a. junnaedhi weather and climate prediction laboratory bandung institute of technology
TRANSCRIPT
I Dewa Gede A. Junnaedhi
Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory
Bandung Institute of Technology
WCPL Members
• Dr. Tri Wahyu Hadi (Head)• Nurjanna Joko T. (now at Kyoto Univ.)• I D. G. A. Junnaedhi• Noersoemadi (Master student at ITB)• M. Ridho S. (will begin master study at ITB)• 7 undergraduate students (incl. Gilang P.)
• Developed NWP system in ITB
Global model output : NCEP-GFS : 1° x 1°, 6 hour interval, 24 pressure levels, up to 48-hour prediction
(Figure by JMA) 27km x 27 km
9 km x 9 km
Downscaled using mesoscale models(MM5, WRF and NHM) :27 km x 27 km (domain 1), 9 km x 9 km (domain 2), 3 hour interval, 31 vertical level, 48-hour prediction
Nimbus server :(downloading data and webserver)⁻ Dual Opteron @ 1.4 GHz⁻ 2 GB memory⁻ Nearly 2.5 TB storage
Typhoon cluster :(for running model)- 6 nodes Intel Quad Core @ 2.4 GHz- 4 GB memory each- Nearly 1.5 TB storage
NHM Forecast
WRF Forecast
MM5 Forecast
• Website screenshots
Wind driven wave forecast using MM5 output and Wavewatch III model
Weather on GoogleMap for few city over Indonesia
4-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (1)4-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (1)
(Figure by JMA)
Global model output : NCEP-GFS : 1° x 1°, 6 hour interval, 24 pressure levels, case study of Feb. 2008, initial at 1200 UTC, up to 48-hour prediction
Data initial
CCAM
27km x 27 km
9 km x 9 km
donwscale
Donwscale(MM5, WRF,and NHM)
Initial &boundarycondition
MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (2)MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (2)
AWS observations
C B
A
MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (3)MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (3)
WRF MM5 NHM CCAM (C48)
Field Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2Meridional Grid
Dimensions280 193 280 193 280 193
Global (48x48x6)
Global (48x48x6)Zonal Grid
Dimensions145 94 145 94 145 94
Vertical Level 31 31 32 32 32 32 18 18Grid Resolution 27 km 9 km 27 km 9 km 27 km 9 km 27km 9km
Parent Grid Ratio 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3.33Parent time step
Ratio1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3.33
Nest Type 1 - Way2–Way(online)
1 - Way2-Way(online)
1 - Way2-Way
(Offline)
Streched - Schmidt Transf.
Streched - Schmidt Transf.
(Offline)
Explicit Moisture Scheme
WSM 3-class simple ice scheme
WSM 3-class simple ice scheme
Graupel (Reisner2)
Graupel (Reisner2)
Simplified Graupel
Simplified Graupel
- -
Microphysics Rotstayn Rotstayn
Longwave Radiation physics
RRTMscheme
RRTMscheme
RRTMscheme
RRTMscheme
GSM0103 GSM0103GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf
)
GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf
)
Shortwave Radiation physics
GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf
)
GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf
)Planetary Boundary
Layer SchemeMRF
schemeMRF
schemeMRF
schemeMRF
schemeYamada-Mellor
Yamada-Mellor
Monin-Obukhov
Monin-Obukhov
Cumulus SchemeGrell
DevenyiKain-Fritsch Grell
Kain-Fritsch 2
Kain-Fritsch Kain-FritschConvjlm – McGregor
(2003)
Convjlm – McGregor
(2003)
Model Set-up
CURRENT RESULTS (1)CURRENT RESULTS (1)
Up to 24-hour prediction, 3-hourly interval, Feb. 2009
D1 D2
D1 D2
D1 D2
D1 D2
CURRENT RESULTS (2)CURRENT RESULTS (2)
CURRENT RESULTS (3)CURRENT RESULTS (3)
D1 D2
CURRENT RESULTS (4)CURRENT RESULTS (4)
D1 D2
CURRENT RESULTS (6)CURRENT RESULTS (6)
CCAM has different phase error for the first 24-hour prediction
Root Mean Squared Vector Error
day time
Bandung Sumedang
Lampung Timur Lampung Selatan
phase different
CURRENT RESULTS (8)CURRENT RESULTS (8)Rainfall Prediction
First 24-hour Second 24-hour