HYMEX - overview SOP 2012HYMEX - overview SOP 2012Véronique Ducrocq (HyMeX EC-ISC chair, Météo-France)

THORPEX-PDP Working Group, 18 June 2012

http://www.hymex.org

#1

Introduction

HyMex is a 10-y program devoted to the water cycle in Mediterranean, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of hydrometeorological risks

Within the long-term observation period started in 2010, several special observation periods (SOP= research field campaigns) are envisaged for improving our knowledge about high-impact weather events in order to better understanding, modelling and forecasting them. The first SOP series :

- Heavy precipitation event (HPE) and flash-flooding for SOP1 (5 Sept.-6 Nov. 2012)

- Regional winds, air-sea fluxes and ocean convection for SOP2 (1 Feb.-15 March 2013)

in Northwestern Mediterranean

#2

Outline

Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues

State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation

Overview of the SOP1 field campaign

The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed

#3

Outline

Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues

State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation

Overview of the SOP1 field campaign

The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed

#4

Societal and economical stakes

25 oct. 2009

Gard, 8-9 Sept. 2002: ~700mm in 24h> 20 fatalities, damages: 1,2 billion €

Algiers, 10 Nov. 2001: ~260mm in 24 h>800 fatalities, damages: 4 billion €

Mediterranean is a large complex terrain region particularly prone to heavy precipitation events

Several € billion/year of damages in Mediterranean

#5

500 hPa Z

Upper/mid-troposphere winds

Low-level marine winds L

H40-y composite analysis (ERA-40) for HPE over Southern France, from

Nuissier et al, 2011

Predictability issues

The synoptic environment propitious to HPE is well known and now rather well forecasted by synoptic scale NWP systems predictability of HPE occurrence 1-d to 7-d ahead #6

Predictability issues

25 oct. 2009

State of art of the kilometric-scale Convection-Permitting NWP systems

But the accuracy of the forecasts is still insufficient to satisfy the demands of the society in terms of location, timing and amount

PDF of location errors of AROME forecasts for heavy precipitating systems

Location errors < 50 km in 70% of cases

(Vincendon et al., 2011)

Impact of a 50 km location error on discharge

Time-evolution of discharge simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL forced by: AROME forecast 50-km shifted AROME forecast Radar observations Observed discharge+

#7

Climate change issues

25 oct. 2009

State of the art of regional climate Earth System modelling and downscaling methods

Present climate (1961-1990)

Future climate (2070-2099)

Regional climate (ARPEGE-Climat)

Statistical downscaling (QQ correction)

Statistical downscaling (weather type)

(Ricard et al, 2009) Model improvements are needed to increase the reliability of climate projections, particularly with respect to climate extremes #8

Outline

Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues

State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation

Overview of the SOP1 field campaign

The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed

#9

Rapid or moist

flow Slow or d

ry

flow

deflection

Cold pool

Orographic forcing

convergence

French « Cévenol » cases

The characteristics of the marine low-level (conditionally unstable) flows interacting with complex terrain modulate the location, intensity and stationarity

of the convective systems

Idealized simulations of stationarity MCS with the « true » terrain

(Bresson et al, QJRMS2012)

Convective cells

MCS stratiform part Low-level flow

Orographic forcing

Cold pool front

deflection

Low-level convergence

#10

A Southern Alps case

• Interaction of the marine flows with orography and cold pool evidenced,• but low-preditability of the event, • few observations over the Sea for data assimilation and for verification of the high-resolution

forecasts

Real case simulations of HPE : Var (Soutrhern Alps) case in June 2010Var, 15 June 2010 400mm/24h @ AFP – G.Julien

(Bresson et al, 2012)

Phase 1

Phase 2

#11

WV6.2 satellite Brightness Temperature

The data assimilation fails to correct the first-guess in the convection area

Wrong forecast of the upstream convection within the southward flow over the Mediterranean Sea

AROME-WMEDObservations

07 UTC

#12

A Southern Alps case

1. Synoptic wave(Rossby wave train)

adapted from F. Grazzini fom Davolio (2012)

2. Low-level flow

3. Interaction with local(orographic) features

This seems to be a common features in the three convective events, although with different intensity

Italian Liguria-Tuscany cases25 Oct 2011

4 Nov. 2011

4 Oct. 2010

Very similar large scale patterns (resembling condition for Alpine HPE!)

#13

Duffourg and Ducrocq (2011)

A low-level marine flow uptaking moisture and energy from the Mediterranean Sea, along its path over the Western Mediterranean

rv gained from the sea

24h

Anticycloniccontext

Cycloniccontext

Water vapor gained from the Sea

Eva

po

rati

on

flu

x o

ver

the

Sea

Residence time in the Mediterranean low-levels

anticyclonic situations Cyclonic situations Origin and transport of moisture feeding the HPE, based on multiscale simulations

D

D-1

D-3

D-3D-3

D

D-4

D-4

#14

Role of the Mediterranean Sea

SOP1 objectives

25 oct. 2009

Most of the previous results have been obtained from numerical model simulations. A dedicated field campaign is mandatory to confirm these results by an observational-driven knowledge base. HyMeX SOP1 aim to obtain detailed information on the most extensive-to-date range of processes including:

the convective initiation and the stationarity mechanisms, with emphasis on the upstream marine flow

the air-sea exchanges and ocean mixed layer upstream the HPE(in time and space),

the aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes contributing to HPE over complex terrain

and finally land surface processes leading to flash-floods in the North-western Mediterranean.

To support process studies for advancing the accuracy of models ranging from cloud resolving to regional/global climate models.

#15

Outline

Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues

State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation

Overview of the SOP1 field campaign

The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed

#16

Monitoring of the far upstream conditions

SOP1 – atmosphere

DLR/F20

T-NAWDEX

1-19 oct.-30h

RS operating or not at 06 UTC

Frequency increase of the operational radiosoundings over land and sea (E-ASAP) and of aircraft (AMDAR) over the Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean domain (through DTS use, EUCOS)

Possible common events with T-NAWDEX

#17

Monitoring of the upstream conditions

1 2

Water vapor and aerosol

lidar

Wind profiler ?

KIT DO128

KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations

10/09-13/10 100h

SOP1 – atmosphere

Radionsoundings

Wind profilers

BA site

CO site

Boundary layer balloons

Two upstream islands sites

#18

Monitoring of the upstream conditions

1 2

Water vapor and aerosol

lidar

Wind profiler ?

KIT DO128

KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations

10/09-13/10 100h

SOP1 – atmosphere

Radionsoundings

Wind profilers

BA site

CO siteBoundary layer balloons

Upstream observations over the Sea

SAFIRE/ATR42

Dropsondes from SAFIRE/F20, KIT/DO128

Radiosounding from a ship on alert

Upstream flights payload: water vapour lidars, aerosols, cloud

instruments

#19

Monitoring of the near upstream conditions

1 2

KIT DO128

KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations

10/09-13/10 100h

SOP1 – atmosphere

Radionsoundings

Wind profilers

CO site

Coastal observations 1 mobile radiosounding1 dual radiosounding Low-level wind profilers

upstream supersite (sodar, WV-aerosol lidars, cloud radar, radiometer)

CV site

Operational Nîmes radiosounding #20

Documenter les conditions atmosphériques en amont des systèmes précipitants

1 2

KIT DO128

KIT cube (3 lidars vapeur d’eau et vent, 2 radiomètres, 1 sodar, 3 radars (nuage, bandes K et X), 2 stations flux)

10/09-13/10 100h

SOP1 – atmosphere

Radionsondages

Profileurs de vent

1 Radiosondage mobile1 Radiosondage « double »

Profileurs de vent basses couches

supersite Candillargues(sodar, lidars vapeur d’eau-aérosols, radar nuage, radiomètre)

Site COSite CV

#21

Monitoring the interaction of the Mediterranean Sea with HPE

SOP1 – air-sea

gliders

Ship of opportunity: bulk air-sea fluxes, surface salinity and temperature, GPS weekly Marseille-Algiers line

Additional measurements on operational fixed buoys (precip, radiation, 0-200m mooring line (T,S)

drifting buoys SVP Marisonde drifters Argo floats

Air-sea fluxes with waveglider

Thethys 2 cruise : Ocean profile network 5-22 Sept

Air-sea fluxes onboard SAFIRE/ATR42 et KIT/DO128

Air-sea fluxes, surface Salinity and Temperature measurements onboard

ship (on alert)

#22

Monitoring the dynamics and microphysics within the precipitating systems

SOP1 – atmosphere & land surface

SAFIRE/F20

Flight over the hydrometeorological sitesCloud radar (RASTA), cold microphysics

1 2

Induction ring, electric field mill

Lightning Mapping Array

radiometer

CV site

Site CO

Surface stations

KIT cube (3 lidars vapeur d’eau et vent, 2 radiomètres, 1 sodar, 3 radars (nuage, bandes K et X), 2 stations flux)

R4

R5

R1

R2

R3

D1 D2

S1

R6

T2 T1

LR15

F1

Radar C-band SP Monte Midia (AQ)

Radar X-band DP (RM)

Radar X-band DP L’Aquila

Radar C-band DP Tufillo (CH)

Radar C-band SP Monte Serano (PG)

Radar C-band DP Frascati (RM)

Disdrometer (AV)

Disdrometer (RM)

Rawinsonde L’Aquila

Lidar Raman L’Aquila

Radiometer (RM)

Lightning (RM)

CI site

Monitoring the dynamics and microphysics within the precipitating systems

SOP1 – atmosphere & land surface

#24

Monitoring the hydrological processes during flash-floods

SOP1 – hydrology

~4km²

~10km²

~55km²~1850km²

~2250 km²100 km²

3 km²

Multiscale instrumented watersheds: soil moisture, soil infiltration and resistivity, subsurface flow, gully network ,

discharge measurements without contact (radar, camera),…

During SOP1, measurements on alert:- discharge- isotopes

(run-off generation and concentration, impact of the precipitation and soil moisture distribution, river routing)

#25

Outline

Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues

State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation

Overview of the SOP1 field campaign

The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed

#26

SOP1 – Operation Coordination

Coordination of the field campaign from the HyMeX Operation Center (HOC) located near Montpellier which will be the French aircraft airport during SOP1

a Mission SelectionTteam gathering atmosphere, ocean and hydrology experts and Météo-France forecasters at HOC 7days a week daily meeting using videoconference with 3 remote sites (AEMET in Palma, Univ. L’Aquila, KIT-cube team in Corsica)

a field campaign website (sop.hymex.org), with real-time reserach and operational model outputs and observation quicklooks [in addition to the Météo-France visualisation SYNERGIE workstations at HOC]

#27

HyMeX resources on the SOP website

Some examples of dedicated productsMCS tracking

Radar reflectivityand winds+ aircraft real-time position

Balloon trajectories

Argo float trajectories based on the SYMPHONIE ocean model

Ensemble discharge from perturbed AROME rainfall

forecasts

#28

Real-time forecastConvection-Permitting (2-3 km) deterministic NWP forecasts:

• Dynamical adaptation : AEMET-HIRLAM-CNN (IFS), CNR-MOLOCH (BOLAM), LaMMA-WRF(IFS), LA-MESONH (IFS), UIB-MM5

• With 3-h data assimilation cycle: AROME-France, AROME-WMED

AROME_WMED domain LaMMA-WRF domain

The last Oct-Nov 2011 cases (Pre-SOP cases) in Italy, France and Spain are used for validation and tuning of models and tools that will be used in real time during the SOP, in addition to be HyMeX “golden cases”:~20 days with daily precipitation above 100 mm from 20 Oct to 23 Nov. 2011Incl. 25 Oct. 2011 HPE: Italy – La Spezia – HyMeX post-event survey, 300 mm in 3 hours in Cinque TerreIncl. 4 Nov. 2011 HPE: Italy – Genoa, 400 mm in 12 hInc. 7 Nov. 2011 Medicane: NW Med.

La Spezia Flash-flood (25 oct 2011) 24h rainfall

Some of these models will be coupled to ocean or wave models #29

Convection-permitting ensemble

SOP1 = test-bed for these new systems (AROME-EPS, COSMO-LEPS)

Obs

25 Oct 2011, La Spezia

coupled with hydrological models for flash-flood forecasting

AROME EPS based on convective scale ensemble data assimilation using large-scale EPS as LBC (selected by clustering) and stochastic physics

24h rainfall

#30

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention