US Contributions to HyMEX SOP 2, Feb-Mar, 2013Report for THORPEX PDP WG

Reading, June 17, 2012

Craig H. Bishop,Naval Research Laboratory, California, USA

Overview

• Brief description of HyMex, SOP 2• Attempt to obtain NSF funding for HyMeX

failed (although this was primarily focused on SOP1)

• NRL/ONR has funded projects that have modeling components focused on HyMex

• There is still a small chance that Navy/CIRPAS Twin Otter Aircraft will participate.

No wave field

Developed wave field

Heat flux maximum

Heat flux attenuated

Wind/wave/current momentum budget

Mistral: laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling

Mistral: laboratory for air/sea/wave interaction

• Key atmospheric observations – High spatio-temporal u,v,w,T,q measurements for near surface fluxes

near ocean over entire swath of Mistral. (Flux capable aircraft)– Definition of top of boundary layer. (Regular air-craft soundings) – Measurements of u,v,w,T,q above boundary layer. (Balloon and

aircraft).

• Key oceanic observations– Wave spectra (buoys, ?) and current (buoys, radar?, scatterometer

winds) )at varying distances to the SSW of Nimes.– T, salinity variations defining both basin oceanic flow (pre-defined

glider transects) and mixed region (adaptive glider transects)

EU SOP2 core in forwarded (ASICS-MED) document

Fig. 2A: OCARINA

(top) and Wave-glider (bottom)

Fig. 2B: Ocean operations during SOP2 and EOP with repeated glider transects

Fig. 1: Organization of the project

NRL/ONR contributions

• Four projects with a combined value of > 1 million per year for three years are HyMeX related. – Coupled ocean-atmosphere covariances (Rowley, Coelho)– Coupled ocean-atmosphere DA (Bishop, Coelho)– Coupled regional-global DA (Bishop)– Coupled regional-global DA (Szunyogh)

Coupled Regional-Global DA

HyMeX

Aim to demonstrate simultaneous unified DA for global model and multiple COAMPS

regions. HyMeX will facilitate this.

16

W ATL

Would coupling W ATL regional DA to global DA

improve forecasts for Hymex region?

Would forcing large scale aspect of COAMPS ICs to be

the same as global model ICs in W ATL improve COAMPS TC

track forecasts?

Mean phase Errors in NOGAPS cyclone forecasts are Maximized in the Mediterranean

96 hour Forecast

Verifying Analysis

2009120500

Recent work by Dan Hodyss and Justin Mclay

Would the higher resolution COAMPS model not suffer such persistent phase shift errors?

NRL/ONR contributions• Activities for SOP 2

– Running of fully coupled COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high resolution nests over NW Med. Make key fields available via web-site. (Rowley, Coelho)

– Build coupled ocean/atmosphere DA system for COAMPS in Mediterranean (aim is to use HyMeX observations to evaluate system) (Bishop, Frolov)

– Build Coupled Regional/Global DA system and use it to assess whether it can enhance forecasts of moisture transport into Mediterranean. (Bishop, Szunyogh)

Possible additional ONR/NRL contributions to HyMeX

• Provide adaptive sampling guidance for oceanic gliders in collaboration with Pierre Testor and Joaquin Tintore (Coelho, Rowley)

• Flux capable Twin Otter for SOP 2. (Djamal Khelif, Qing Wang)

• Djamal Khelif and Qing Wang hoping to bring Twin Otter to HyMeX, SOP2

• The CIRPAS Twin Otter is instrumented to provide support to the atmospheric and ocean sciences (see separate instrument list-link). It contains a full suite of state of the art meteorological, aerosol, and cloud particles sensors, and has as well capacity for additional equipment. The Twin Otter supports individual scientists as well as teams of scientists interested in lower tropospheric phenomena.

• Specs• The CIRPAS Twin Otter in non-pressurized turbo-prop, twin-engine

aircraft:• Payload Capacity: 1500 lbs.• Available Payload Power: 200 Ampere of 28 VDC, or 5600 Watts, of which

up to 4000 watts may be inverted to 120V AC at 60 Hz.• Endurance: About 5 hours, fully loaded• Practical Mission Ceiling: 18,000 feet, 12,000 feet without oxygen.

tata

ETKF Summary map of Signal

Variance Sq, for many different q.

Summary bar chart

tv tv

GoodPoor

Aim: to improve a 24-hr forecast on the West Coast

ETKF targeting capability has been extended to NCOM regional ocean model

Serial adaptive sampling

• Many combinations and permutations of adaptive observations are available.

• Suppose that two sets of observations can be deployed simultaneously.

• First, find the optimal first deployment. Next, calculate the best second deployment given that the first set of observations are to be assimilated by the ETKF at the same time.

• Reduces observational redundancy.

Flight track number Flight track number

Serial adaptive sampling during

WSR 2000

Summary

• HyMeX observations serve to inform and test coupled modeling/DA development in US. Key sub-areas include– Ocean-atmosphere-wave– Regional-global model– Parameterization of fluxes of heat and momentum between ocean-

atmosphere-wave field.

• Hope to:– Bring Twin Otter to SOP 2– Provide real-time adaptive sampling guidance to ocean gliders– Collaborate on coupled-system ensemble DA, ensemble forecasting

and upstream adaptive sampling for HyMeX.– Get involved in cloud and precip assimilation/estimation