8/6/2019 Huge Risk / Reward in July and in the Second Half of 2011.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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July 1, 2011 Huge Risk / Rew ard in J uly and in t he Second Hal f of 2011.

The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is cheaper than a new quarterly risky level at 3.052, which

favors higher yields. For gold semiannual value level is $1469.9 with monthly risky level at$1547.9, which should limit upside potential. Oil should stay below my annual pivots at $99.91and $101.92. A close for oil in July below the five-month modified moving average at $96.25shifts the monthly chart profile to negative. For the euro versus the dollar my monthly valuelevel is 1.4133 with semiannual risky level at 1.4752. For the Dow Industrial Average my annualvalue level is 11,491 with monthly risky level at 13,155.

10-Year Note (3.166) The monthly chart shows the 120-month simple moving average at 4.041 asthe yield down trend support. If you connect the lows you have a yield up trend. The record low yield a2.016 occurred in Dec 2008, which is when the Federal Reserve cut the funds rate to 0 to %. Yieldshave been rising since then. I have a new quarterly risky level at 3.052, so we need a weekly closebelow that yield. Otherwise the risk is to my annual value level at 3.791 in the second half of 2011.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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Comex Gold ($1499.2) The monthly chart is extremely overbought with gold in a parabolic bubble.Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1488.0, $1471.6, $1452.6 and $1356.5 with

monthly risky level at $1547.9. We need a weekly close in July above $1547.9 to inflate the bubblefurther as semiannual and quarterly risky levels are $1644.8 and $1655.1.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($94.80) Daily and weekly value levels are $93.08 and $80.26 with my annualpivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and quarterly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $102.40, $103.93$107.90 and $113.37. A close in July below the five-month modified moving average at $96.25shifts the monthly chart profile to negative.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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The Euro (1.4502) Daily, monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4420, 1.4133, 1.3744 and1.3728 with semiannual and annual risky levels at 1.4752, 1.4872, 1.6367 and 1.7312. My best gues

is that the downside risk for the euro exceeds the upside potential in the second half of 2011.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Monthly Dow: (12,414)The monthly chart shows overbought MOJO with the five-month modifiedmoving average at 12,011 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 13,155, 13,839 and13,890. My annual value level lags at 11,491. The 120-month simple moving average is 10,547. Aclose in July below 12,011 indicates significant downside risks given a subsequent close below 11,491as semiannual value levels lag at 9,635 and 8,468.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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S&P 500 (1320.6) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1312.8, 1241.3, 1210.7,981.3 and 855.7 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1422.8, 1467.0 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ (2774) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2583, 2335, 2199 and 2049 withdaily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2975, 3109 and 3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2325) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 2172, 1951, 1861 and1723 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2338, 2483, 2590 and 2630.

Dow Transports (5424) Annual, weekly and semiannual value levels are 5179, 5058, 4335 and3868 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 5443, 6112 and 6131.

Russell 2000 (827.43) Annual, weekly and semiannual value levels are 784.16, 756.79, 577.47 and530.04 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 834.62, 924.95, 930.83 and 978.58.

The SOX (410.35) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 382.62, 270.98, 258.97 and204.67 with a daily pivot at 412.84 and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 482.54, 493.22and 531.14.

Equity Fundamentals end the First Half of 2011 NEUTRAL 49.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 50.5% of all stocks are overvalued Six sectors are undervalued with Construction the cheapest undervalued by just 5.1% Ten sectors are overvalued Transportation by 11.1% and Multi-Sector Conglomerates by

24.4%.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0

is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

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