o r l d w i d e u s a g e o f o i l r e a c h e d n e a r l y 85 .9 mi l l ion b /d in 2007 , accord ing to the Energy Informat ion Adminis t ra t ion(EIA). Comparing those numbers with the amountof o i l produced in 1990 (66 mil l ion b/d) and theamount projec ted to be produced in 2030 (117.7mil l ion b/d) , the appet i te the world has for oi l isclearly not decreasing. “There’s a percentage or chunk of increase [ inprices] that is comprised solely on political develop-ments occurring, so there’s a psychological componenton changes in market – the polit ical market,” saidGlenn Dubin, business development manager for HartEne rgy Consu l t i ng . “Ano the r componen t i s t heincrease in demand – like the old adage says, if everycitizen in China took one egg globally that we would

run out of eggs on the earth. Sameconcept with oil.” W h e r e t h e w o r l d g o e s f r o mhere, then, depends on a variety offactors : ref ining capaci ty and pro-duction, economic conditions as wellas the transportation sector, sustainabil-ity issues and public policy.

RefiningHart Energy Consulting’s World Refining and FuelsService (WRFS) 2008 projects reserves and produc-tion will be adequate to meet demand in 2025. Thebig problem in the near future will be limited refiningcapacity. “I think that 2008, in terms of increased orimproved refining capacity, globally, if we see anoth-

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er increase of 130,000 b/d to 200,000 b/d byy e a r e n d , I t h i n k t h a t w o u l d b e a l l w e ’ r egoing to see ,” sa id Dr. Rick Chimblo, man-a g e r o f g l o b a l b u s i n e s s d e v e l o p m e n t a tGenoi l and former head of explorat ion andc h i e f g e o p h y s i c i s t o f S a u d i A r a m c o .“Those p ro jec t s a re p lanned ou t so fa r ina d v a n c e , f i v e a n d 1 0 y e a r p r o j e c t s , t h ec a p a c i t y w e ’ r e s e e i n g a d d e d n o w w a sb a s e d o n p e o p l e ’s d e c i s i o n s f i v e y e a r sa g o w h e n t h e p r i c e o f o i l a n d w h e r e i twas go ing was obv ious ly a lo t lower.” P r o d u c t i o n f o r j u s t 2 0 0 8 i sp r o j e c t e d t o b e a b o u t 8 8 m i l l i o nb / d – a s i s c o n s u m p t i o n , a c c o r d i n gt o t h e E I A .

So the nex t i s sues to cons ider i sfrom where all the oil to be refined

wil l come. With reserves of l ights w e e t e r c r u d e s d w i n d l i n g , t h eu s e o f h e a v y s o u r c r u d e s w i l li n c r e a s e a s d e m a n d f o r o i lc o n t i n u e s . “ [L igh t swee t c rudes ] a rep r e m i u m c r u d e s a n d t h e yd w i n d l e f o r a v a r i e t y o fr e a s o n s , ” C h i m b l o s a i d .“ T h o s e a r e t h e c r u d e s t h a tthey’ re rea l ly ta lk ing about

when you see that US$92/bbl. On the refiningside, they’re very attractive to refiners becausewhen you cook that oil, you get more high ends,you get more light distillates, which means youhave more gasoline, you get more jet fuel and youget more diesel, and those three transportationfuels from light sweet crude constitute about 70%to 75% of the barrel.” However, to make this switch over to heaviercrudes, new technologies will be necessary. Heavycrudes simply do not yield as much as light crudes.Improving recovery by means of hor izonta ldrilling, better seismic techniques and steam flood-ing, to name a few existing technologies, will help,Chimblo said. He also believes crude upgradingtechnology such as hydroconversion will then bekey to improving crudes processed by refineries. “We have talked to major refiners around theworld, in China, in Saudi Arabia, in the UnitedStates, and they all agree that in order to meet thedemand for transportation fuels that heavy oil isgoing to have to be upgraded before it goes toconventional refineries,” he said. Refiners will have serious coking problems andmuch higher maintenance needs when putting heavysour crudes through refineries, Chimblo added. “What they are preferring to do is clean [crudeoils] up and upgrade it in merchant plants or inunits that would be built inside their fence before

it goes into the refinery – they don’t have to dealwith the sulfur anymore, they have less cokingproblems, and once again their throughput, includ-ing their yield, is much higher,” he said. In terms of the refining capacity, there is a moveto bui ld more ref iner ies around the world – inChina, for example. Saudi Aramco recently signedagreements with China to s ignif icant ly expandcapacity, Chimblo said. “ In fac t , OPEC [Organizat ion of Pet roleumExport ing Countr ies] members are going to beadding nearly 6 million bbl of oil per day capacityof refining by 2011,” he added. Worldwide refining capacity and production, totaling about 85 million b/d in 2007, went up by132,000 b/d. But the number of refineries, whichstands at 657 as of the end of 2007, decreased fromthe p rev ious year in to ta l . To reach p ro jec teddemand for 88 million b/d for just this year from lastyear’s 85 million, an additional 3 million b/d of oilwould be necessary – that would mean increasingcapacity by the equivalent of 23 new refineries,Chimblo said. And to reach the projected demand of101 – to 102 million b/d by 2017, the equivalent of123 new refineries would be necessary (double thatnumber if the crude being used refined is heavy sourcrude that has not been upgraded instead of lightsweet crude). Obviously major investments wouldbe required to bring this to fruition. “Eventually, planned expansions will ease thetightness in refining capacity,” said Terry Higgins,executive director of refining and special projectsfor Hart Energy Consulting and primary contrib-utor to the WRFS. “For much of 2008, the marketshould not see much difference from the recentpast, as refining expansions keep pace with growthin demand. But, toward year-end, a wave of majorexpansion projects is scheduled to come on line.These, along with high growth in biofuels, willbegin to ease pressure on refining capacity. Of mostsignificance is the 580,000 b/d Reliance refineryin India, scheduled for start up in late 2008. Anaddit ional 900,000 b/d of capacity wil l also beadded in the Asia Pacific region in 2008.”

Financial market/economyIn a report titled The Middle East and Oil: SupplyChallenges Ahead, Koceila Maames, Calyon SecuritiesInc.’s Africa and Middle East economist, wrote inlate November 2007 that several factors are behindsustained demand growth, despite historically highoil prices above $60/bbl Middle East and NorthAfrica and OPEC countries’ budgets. Those factors,despite the upward pressures in the last few months,a significantly lower interest rate environment, more

efficient central banks in terms of policymaking, etc.But the main explanation lies in the fact that the lat-est oil price rally has been mainly fuelled by rapidlygrowing demand, whereas the past oil shocks weret r iggered by rea l (or fears of ) supply shocks (o i lembargo in 1973, Iran/Iraq war in 1980).” This may be applicable to the coming year as well. “The issue a t the top of the l i s t [ f rom the eco-nomic pe r spec t i ve ] i s po l i t i c s and po l i cy i n t heMiddle East. That could potentially have the biggestimpact [on the oil industry this year],” Dublin said. “Id o s e e a r e c e s s i o n i n t h e U . S . , b u t i t ’s n o t j u s tbecause of oil . I t has to do with the financial mar-kets and the sub prime housing bubble bust. There’sthe big issue of inflation and the weak dollar havingan impact as well. And of course, since we’re a glob-al economy, that does impact the big picture.” I n add i t i on t o t hose conce rns , t he o i l ma rke tcontinues to change heading into this year, and fuel

“But the main explanation lies in thefact that the latest oil price rally hasbeen mainly fuelled by rapidly growingdemand, whereas the past oil shockswere t r iggered by real (or fear of)supply shocks (oil embargo in 1973,Iran/Iraq war in 1980).”

-Koceila Maames, Calyon Securities Inc.’sAfrica and Middle East economist

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buyers a re fac ing new norms in tha t marke tp lacewi th “h igher c rude pr ices , t igh te r and more con-strained supply options, and increased price volatil-ity,” said Jim Kasier, senior vice president and chiefs t ra tegy off icer of FuelQuest . According to an ar t ic le in The Economist , pub-lished Jan. 3, 2008, when the price of crude oil sur-passed $100/bbl Jan. 2, i t became nearly five timesmore expensive than it was just six years ago. “Fi rs t ly, $100 oi l i s more or less where we arenow, i t’s not causing any huge [economic] crisis ,”s a i d D r. D a v i d B e n n e t t , e x e c u t i v e d i r e c t o r o fTrans-Orient Pet roleum Ltd . “In fac t , i t ’s not thehighest in real terms that oil prices have ever been.After the second price shock in 1979-80, the priceof oil got up to about $36/bbl, and inflated to pres-ent day dollars is $120-odd per barrel plus.” And what these high prices could do in the nextfew years is help the world with i ts sustainabi l i tyefforts by encouraging new technology that would

improve on fuel efficiency and lower greenhousegas emissions, such as the homogeneous chargecompression ignition technology that engine man-ufacturers and automakers have been in the processof developing in recent years. “[High priced oil] sort of forces improvementsin technology, it forces investments in alternatives,forces more efficient use of oil – and one has to saythat many societies around the world have beenextremely wasteful in their use of oil – so the highprice actually forces a more rational use of thecommodity and it forces the development of alter-natives and those are good things,” Bennett said. Things should stabilize somewhat this year inregard to overall prices though, Chimblo said. “Because we’ve had this apparent slowing downand stagnation at least of both the U.S. and Asianeconomies just since the beginning of this year, Iwould expect that crude oil prices, if that contin-ues, might actually back down a little bit – maybeas low as the $80-level,” Chimblo said. “As globaldemand for transportation fuels, which actuallydrives the price, decreases, it’s also going to allowthe refining capacity to adjust for future higher oilproduct ion levels . So I think in the short term,maybe even for the entire year 2008, we’re going tosee some backing down of the crude oi l prices,only because the consumption and the demand forthe refined products is going to go down.” And OPEC will watch these developments care-fully, he added, though it is not going to increaseor decrease production this year. “It’s not that the price of oil is going to drop, well,it may do in short-term fluctuations and in fact has inthe past few weeks, but it’s really the case that invest-ment, in looking for more conventional oil and indeveloping unconventional resources and so forth,really depends on investment in that sector [which]has been relatively low in the past decade,” Bennettsaid. “[Investment] is increasing now and we canexpect to see further discoveries being made, but ofcourse, that’s all predicated on the price staying up. Soreally what we’re looking at is not so much a shortageof oil – my view is that the world will not, as alarmistswould have it, run out of oil as a supply/demand ques-tion, it will run out of the desire to use oil by substi-tuting forms of energy, such as solar power, for exam-ple, or fusion power, which is likely to be commercialon the large scale in the next 20 to 30 years.” The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook publishedJan. 8, 2008, states that world oil consumption isexpected to rise by 1.6 million b/d in 2008 and in2009, compared with the approximate 1 million-b/dincrease last year. Consumption will continue togrow during the course of the next two years, based

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down the stimulus of global economies and reducedemand at least temporarily.” Even though the numbers have supp ly anddemand racing each other in a dead heat, Bennettdoes not see us hitting the proverbial wall in termsof oil supply. And oil is certainly not going to runout in 2008 or the very near future. “Maybe supply will become a bit more limited,which will push up price, maybe demand will fallaway because we move to other technologies, whichwill drop the price, but I think in real terms you’regoing to see oil around for a long time,” he said. “Bya long t ime, I mean half a century or more. Butwe’re just going to see it not play as dominant of arole in the supply/demand equation and that’s goingto be price driven. All these things are price driven.As the price of oil in real terms rises, which it will,other forms of energy become more cost-effective.” World oil demand, however, is still projected tocontinue to grow faster than oil supply outside ofOPEC countries in 2008, according to the EIA.Global oil markets also are likely to remain tightthroughout the year, though they may ease moder-ately in 2009. “According to the WRFS, demand will continueto grow at 2.3% annually, maintaining pressure oncrude supply and refining capacity,” Higgins said.“There are no major developments on the horizonthat will significantly alter the course of supply,demand or refining. Except for the possible impact ofadverse political situations, market volatility shouldbe moderate as markets adjust to higher price envi-ronments and prices come off of peak levels.” The EIA also reports higher non-OPEC produc-tion and planned additions to OPEC capacity shouldrelieve some market strain, which is expected to leadto a surplus production capacity increase from lessthan 2 million b/d to more than 4 million b/d by theend of 2009. “With these first signs of global economic slow-downs, most oil executives are probably reassessingtheir companies’ five-year business plans to deter-mine capital investments in exploration, produc-tion and refining activities,” Chimblo said. And there is considerable oil out there remain-ing to be found. The Uni ted Sta tes GeologicalSurvey said undiscovered technically recoverableresources of oil in the United States alone wereabout 45 billion bbl, Bennett added. “Most expensive U.S. production is viable becauseprice of oil is higher right now, “ Dubin said. “It’slikely that as long as the price remains high that pro-d u c t i o n o u t p u t r e m a i n s v i a b l e t o o . I f o t h e reconomies around the world start to have some realproblems or issues, depending where they are in

on projections of continued strong world economicg r o w t h i n m a n y n o n - O E C D ( O r g a n i z a t i o n f o rEconomic Coopera t ion and Deve lopmen t ) coun-tries, such as China and several other nations in Asiaa n d t h e M i d d l e E a s t . T h e i m p a c t o f d e v e l o p i n gnations such as China and India l ikely wil l have aconsiderable impact on the oil industry heading intothe next few years as well. “Refined product demand is projected to remainstrong in 2008 (about 2.3% growth) driven by contin-ued s t rength in China, India and other developingcountries,” Higgins said. “According to the WRFS,growth in China and India refined product demand,which over the past five years has averaged 7.6%, is pro-jected to continue at nearly 4%.” A n d i n t e r m s o f w h e r e g l o b a l e c o n o m i e s a r eheaded, Dubin sees two outlooks: “one is with theemerging economies of Asia , inc luding India andChina, as they are continuing to outpace themselvesin te rms of deve lopment , p lus the u t i l i za t ion anddemand for energy resources are rising quickly,” hesaid. “On the other hand, with the potential recessionthat is occurring in the U.S. and the effect that i t’shaving on other global markets, that i t could slow

Trees as Feedstock hile the food vs. fuel debate rages over corn ethanol, another viable source of fuel may be key to supplying future ener-gy needs. Trees are emerging as an ideal feedstockfor cellulosic ethanol production. Unlike corn, treescan be harvested at any time and tree plantationsdo not face the same oil degradation and waterissues that corn farmers do. Excess material on for-est floors left behind after timber is harvested,including branches and brush, could even be used inthis process instead of being burned. Cellulosicethanol is perhaps the most viable alternative togasoline, partially because its emissions range from80% to 100% less than gas (and 10% to 20% lessthan corn ethanol). The overall cellulosic process isnot yet cost-competitive and there could be compe-tition between producers and the paper and pulp-wood industries for wood. Government money isfunneled to cellulosic ethanol through research anddevelopment grants rather than subsidies, as isdone with corn ethanol. The technology itself couldbe commercially viable in as little as two to 10 years.Four cellulosic ethanol plants are planned in thesouthern United States – one plant began operationin Wyoming at the end of January by KL ProcessDesign Group. Source: Forest2Market

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Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition Engines

alternatives. UPS announced changes to the browntruck nearly 18 months ago,” Kaiser said. “I believethat new vehicles will emerge but technology thatoptimizes routes, pace and load will create much ofthe change.” But the need for alternatives is being pushedonward by the current supply/demand structure ofthe hydrocarbon market. “I think this will cause a rethinking of many of theoften deemed less flexible modes of transportation,”Kaiser said. “Rail and mass transit have been largelyineffective in the U.S. compared to Europe. In thefreight and industrial transportation space, rail, roadtrains and other large capacity movers have been lessfavored than individual trucks and these alternativemodes may become more appealing.”

t e r m s o f e n e r g y, p e t r o l e u m c o u l d b e c o m e t o oexpensive for those entities that are struggling withchallenging economies.” Worldwide investment will be necessary as well; inthe World Energy Outlook 2007, the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) predicted world energy needswill be more than 50% higher in 2030 than they aretoday with China and India accounting for 45% ofthat increase. Fossil fuels are going to continue todominate during the next 20 years, leading to morecarbon dioxide emissions and concerns about climatechange and energy security. “In Saudi Arabia, projects worth almost US$70bi l l ion a re p lanned in the energy sec to r over thenext f ive years, with almost half the amount dedi-cated to the oil sector,” Maames wrote.

Transportation, Sustainabilityand Public PolicyThe demand for crude oi l leads to one thing – thedemand for transportation fuel. It is not the barrelso f c rude o i l tha t the wor ld wants , i t ’s the t r ans -portation fuels that are produced from it . Gasolineprices in the United States reached $2.97/gal Feb.4, 2008 – up to $0.78 from the same time one yearago, according to the EIA. Diesel also rose, the EIArepor ted , up $0 .84 f rom las t yea r to reach $3 .28Feb 4. Not only are average drivers affected, but soare shipping fleets that rely on fuel for business. “Large fleets or airlines will continue to strugglewith price volatility and access to ratable and securesources of fuel as markets are constrained,” Kaiser said.“Fleets and airlines will try to pass fuel costs directly totheir customers in the way of fuel surcharge. Many ofthese organizations have risk management in the formof a hedge and/or price caps to control or f ix theircosts of fuel. These techniques provide rising prices pro-tection, but no ability to benefit from valleys in price. “Transportation companies are working hard on

omogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engines combine the fuel efficiency of a compression ignition (CI) diesel engine and the lower emissions of a spark ignition (SI) gasoline engine in an alternative piston-engine com- bustion process. This technology has undergone development by engine manufacturers and researchers for a num-ber of years, and was presented to the U.S. Congress by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2001. HCCI engines use low-pressure fuel injection, instead of high-pressure fuel injection like diesel engines, but have no ignition system, like SIengines. Fuel and air are in a homogeneous mix, resulting in reduced emissions – HCCI has lower nitrogen oxides and par-ticulate matter emissions than CI. Since the charge is compression ignited, there are no throttling losses, leading to higherefficiency. Although the technology has a number of benefits, further research and development is needed before it can be used in commercial on-road applications. HCCI could be an ideal solution toward improved vehicle fleet efficiency andlowered emissions while using fossil fuels.Source: University of California, Berkeley HCCI Project and U.S. Department of Energy

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According to the WRFS, “crude oil will be dis-placed by some biofuels and GTL/CTL [gas-to-liq-uids/carbon-to-liquids], but the impact on crude oilwill be relatively small. The contribution of crudeoil to total supply will decline from 86% in 2006 to83% in 2025.” “I do believe that real science and technologydriven by economic need is going to come up witha combination of solutions,” Chimblo said. “Some ofthem may be conservation, and that would alsomean being more frugal with the oil that we haveleft, so we use oil only for transportation fuel andeven natural gas, we shouldn’t be consuming that forelectricity.” In April 2007, the Associated Press published an arti-cle on the issue of increasing ethanol use and the poten-tial impact it will have on construction of new refiner-ies. In light of the recently increased Renewable FuelsStandard (RFS), this argument presents an interestingsituation for the near future – if ethanol is to replace 9billion gal of gasoline fuel just in 2008, increasing to 36billion gas by 2022, the likelihood that U.S. oil produc-ers will invest in refineries in the United States may bedecreasing. But the overall solution is not likely to sur-face in 2008, as it will require far more than just ethanol.There’s also the issue of energy contest, as ethanol, forexample only has an energy content of 83,333 Btu pergal, while a gallon of gasoline has an energy content of

124,000 Btu, according to the EIA. Further problems that lie withincreasing demand for transporta-tion fuels are emissions and cli-m a t e c h a n g e , w h i c h c a n b ehelped by alternative fuels usage.The overall increase in the use ofhydrocarbon liquid oil in coun-tries such as China and India,whose populations continue togrow exponentially, may create

more problems than can be solved through alternativesuse: “China’s and India’s combined oil imports surge,from 5.4 million b/d in 2006 to 19.1 million b/d in2030 [are equal to] more than the combined imports ofJapan and the United States today,” according to theIEA’s World Energy Outlook 2007. Taking advantage of other sources of energy may leadto those better solutions. Michael J. McAdams, executivedirector of the Advanced Biofuels Coalition and execu-tive director of government affairs of Hart EnergyConsulting, when testifying before the U.S. Senate’sEnergy Committee on Feb. 7, 2008, said: “UtilizingAmerica’s vast cellulosic resource from agricultural wasteto sustainable forest biomass, many of these technologies

either directly or in partnership can produce superiorperformance and fungible fuels. Several of the

biotechnology process companies areworking on a solut ion thatcould be utilized in existingethanol faculties to make dieselor jet fuel. Others could part-ner with enzymatic cellulosiccompanies in a second phase ofthe process of taking the sugarsto a range of products.”

Until solutions such as these become truly main-stream, focus will be set on exploration, productionand refining of crude oil – at least in the coming year. “Several oil companies advertise that they are work-ing toward this long-term [renewable energy] goal,”Chimblo said. “However, in 2008, we should notexpect much progress or any significant breakthroughs. “Maybe there should be some research on a realsynthetic fuel, something that is chemically created, notjust a syncrude from extraction and upgrading andconversion, but something that can be produced in alab where we can just make oil,” Chimblo suggested.“Or even better, let’s skip that process, let’s just make

gasoline. But [the solution for our oil needs is] notgoing to be squeezing corn.” Public policies are aiming to change worldwideneed for fossil fuels as well. At the end of 2007, theU n i t e d S t a t e s g o v e r n m e n t p a s s e d t h e E n e r g yIndependence and Security Act of 2007, which laidout several key provisions relating to fuels, includ-ing new corpora te average fue l economy (CAFE)standards set at 35 mpg for a combined fleet of carsand light-duty trucks by 2020, a new RFS that willrequire 36 bi l l ion gal of renewables by 2022, andthe repeal of oil and gas tax subsidies that will off-s e t t h e e s t i m a t e d c o s t o f i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e n e wCAFE standards. In setting standards for better fuel efficiency andmore renewables in t r anspor ta t ion fue l , the U.S .government is essentially attempting to decrease then e e d f o r o i l a n d t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f u s i n g o i l(emissions). “Oil is very political. It always has been. It’s verypolitical stuff. You only have to read things like DanielYergin’s book The Prize on the history of oil to real-ize that it’s intensely political. Even here in little oldNew Zealand, it is intensely political,” Bennett said.“And what happens is the sort of intimate connectionbetween oil and public policy l i teral ly everywhereand the reason is pretty straightforward. Oil is the nicetransportable form of energy – modern societies arebuilt on energy. You’ve got to be able to control yoursource of supply or ensure your source of supply, sothere will always be that linkage. “Laws are different in every country, and whatactually happens, be i t above the table or below it ,in any country you can rest assured there’s a verystrong mix between public pol icy and oi l supply,”Bennett said.

Hydroconversion ydroconversion, is a small pre-refining process that takes heavy sour crude oil and upgrades it by extracting sul- fur and turning it into a lighter crude with higher American Petroleum Institute. When this lighter sweeter crude heads to refineries for processing, higher amounts of transportation fuel and higher ends will result. “Hydroconversion is becoming a key technology because in its ability to upgrade the oil and make it lighter, it doesa couple of things,” said Rick Chimblo, manager of global business development at Genoil. “Number one, initially what it does is it allows the yield out of the refinery to stay higher. So the gasoline and diesel and jet fuel will stay atcomparable levels to what we have right now with light sweet crude. The other thing that it will do in the long termis it will allow us to not have to build as many more refineries, yes we will have to build hydroconversion units, butthey are smaller, less complex, they have very good throughput, and the cost of building them is a lot less and the cost of operating them is a lot less. “So with a smaller amount of effort in terms of construction and numbers, we can still maintain what we reallywant, which is transportation fuels – without having to build three times as many refineries or twice as many refineries to handle heavy crude oil, we can still get the products we want,” he said.

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Future ProspectsThe coming year will probably not endup in a gloom-and-doom state in termsof oil. But, short term market fluctua-tions will undoubtedly continue: onF e b . 1 9 , 2 0 0 8 , t h e N e w Yo r kMercan t i l e Exchange c rude o i lfutures market for March 2008 closedat $100.01/bbl after a total increase of$4.51 in just one day. Futures pricesactually reached $100.10 during trad-ing – the highest intraday pricereached since 1983 – all as a result ofspeculation that the OPEC will cutou tpu t a t i t s mee t ing March 5 ,according to Bloomberg. Gas pricesleaped up on the same day as well –New York wholesale gasoline forMarch delivery closed at a record$2.6031/gal. While prices will behigher than consumers would prob-ably like, the economic impact couldeventually be positive. Technologyand innovation will be crucial inreaching refining production targets,with the demand for petroleum-based products set to increase evenmore in the coming months. “In the 1970s, when we had thefirst oil boom, we were supposed tobe do ing so much he re in theUnited States,” Chimblo said. “Wewere supposed to be doing so muchto solve our dependency on oil –not just foreign oi l – just oi l .We were supposed to come up with allthese different systems and tech-nologies and solar panels andeverything else, and here we are 30years later and we’re still puttingoff the inevitable. “Is oil going to run out in thenext 10 years? Absolutely not,”Chimblo said. “Will it run out inthis current century? Absolutely.”

“Laws are different in every country, and what actually happens, be it above thetable or below it, in any country you can rest assured there’s a very strong mixbetween public policy and oil supply.”-Dr. David Bennett, Executive Director of Trans-Orient Petroleum Ltd.