hpn magazine october 2014
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The October issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine is loaded with information leading up to the Breeders' Cup, AQHA Challenge Championships, and analysis of racing at Keeneland and more.TRANSCRIPT
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THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING & ENTERTA INMENT
CONTENTS OCTOBER ‘14
7 From The Publisher
9 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind.
11 Prep Files
Brian Nadeau explains what to look for, and how to apply it, when it comes to Breeders’ Cup prep races.
22 Questions for Caton
Renowned handicapper Caton Bredar takes your Qs each issue!
26 Cover Story:
Dirt Flies Again at Keeneland Jeremy Plonk examines the stats that make this a unique, or maybe not so unique, season in Lexington.
33 Secretaries of States
Handicapping hints and a look at the big state-bred championships this month by Jerry Shottenkirk.
38 Challenge Handicapping
AQHA handicapper Jennifer Hancock previews the short-line version of the Breeders’ Cup.
43 Gold Cup & Saucer:
A Must-See Event Ken Warkentin shows his vast appreciation for Prince Edward Island’s big night of racing.
48 Marching To His Own Beat
Brian W. Spencer catches up with an old friend enjoying retirement.
52 Back to Night School:
Trip Handicapping Legendary players from the best of Night School share their insights.
55 October Calendar
Stakes, key dates, Race of Month
60 Galloping Out
Be careful what you boycott.
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From the Publisher
If March comes in likea lion and out like a lamb, then October opens with a roar and
finishes as a full-fledged, three-ring circus. I can’t think of another month that keeps me hopping more than October – and that includes the Derby-Preakness duo in May.
Keeneland’s 17-day run of live racing in the autumn promises to be as good as it gets, while a return to dirt racing will apparently bring up the ROI of every horseplayer who has lost there over the past 6 years if you believe all the mutterings you’ve heard in the Polytrack era. Oh, to be a dreamer, right?
And then the month comes to a stirring conclusion Oct. 31 with the first of two days at the Breeders’ Cup. Given the event has trimmed to “just” 13 races this year it should cut our preparation time from about 12 hours to 10.
Whatever will we do with all that extra time? It has to be post time somewhere. - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers Caton Bredar
Jennifer Hancock Jerry Shottenkirk
Brian Nadeau Brian W. Spencer Ken Warkentin
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Burns / Woodbine
Coady Photography / Charles Town Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club
Special Thanks: Charlottetown Driving Park
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THE TEASER:
From a passing of the hat to Hong Kong phooey to Diva-free zones, eventually it will all make sense.
Here’s Your Big Chance To all the whining horseplayers out there with solutions for every racing ill from short fields, to high takeout, to medication issues, to customer service, to number of racing dates, to ad nauseam…here’s your big chance. Churchill Downs has listed Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans with a local real estate yokel wearing a colored jacket. Current asking price: $147 million.
A seasoned horseplayer like you ought to be able to organize a syndicate of well-heeled individuals willing to take a crack at running a racetrack. Here’s an idea, why don’t you pool the resources of those guys you hang out with at the track beneath the television
monitors near the hot dog stand? They’ve got oodles of racetrack experience from standing under
that same monitor for 20 years (literally, the exact same monitor).
Don’t let that gaudy asking price scare you. While $147 million seems like a big number it’s not really that much if you say it fast. Plus, today’s asking price also includes slots and video poker machines. Your
syndicate probably could purchase Suffolk Downs for a whole lot less, but what would you be getting? An empty racetrack? These days slots are more important to a track’s survival than horses. Go figure.
Churchill bought the place out of bankruptcy for roughly $47 million
Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe.
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in 2004, so they might negotiate. However, if the Calder/Gulfstream peace treaty is any barometer, be prepared for a very long escrow period.
Tom Benson, owner of the NFL’s New Orleans Saints and NBA’s Hornets, considered purchasing the track, but said the price was too high. What the hell does he know about horseracing? Your guys under the monitor could turn the joint around in no time flat.
Quick, before the pick four begins, pass the hat!
Amazing Concept: Less is More! Hong Kong racing long has been a model for the rest of the world. Unfortunately, comparable status is something the world never will achieve. Why? Because the Hong Kong Jockey Club there is the equivalent of the National Football League here, only better. They govern racing via centralized leadership, organized, well funded and community invested. Which one of those attributes can be assigned to a stateside racing ruling body?
OK, Teaser gets it. Racing is better in Hong Kong. Of course it is. They
have 1,300 horses, 24 trainers and about as many jockeys to worry about. Plus, they only race two days a week!
What a piece of cake. Imagine how invested fans would be if that were the case in the US? Field sizes and wagering interest would explode! The pools would be humungous, just like they are in Hong Kong.
Wake up. You’re dreaming. None of that’s going to happen in the US. Especially not while Teaser’s still alive and tickling the fancies
of coast-to-coast mares. But here’s an idea ‘made in Honk Kong’ that just might work:
How about instead of adding racing dates to already jammed
racing seasons, someone, somewhere initiates a two-month break in the action?
Hong Kong racing stops from mid-July to mid-September and the move keeps everyone fresh and excited to return to racing. Now, Teaser’s not advocating the elimination of Saratoga and/or Del Mar, but here’s a guess that we could do without some of those frigid January and February Northeast extravaganzas.
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Future Plans There’s an old saying that no owner or trainer with a good 2-year-old in the barn ever committed suicide. That’s because racing’s all about the future – an uncertain and, therefore, possibly radiant expanse of time when the right horse finally arrives to deliver the ride of a lifetime.
In racing hope springs eternal. It has to. When your stated recipe for success is ‘Breed the best to the best and hope for the best,’ optimism is a mandatory ingredient. Fortunately, every year racing gods smile on someone and produce more joy and excitement than ever thought possible.
It happened this year with California Chrome’s owners Dumb Ass Partners and trainer Art Sherman. You may recall during Triple Crown season when Steve Coburn and Perry Martin rocketed to national prominence after their horse won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. New to the limelight, Dumb Ass Partners’ 15 minutes of fame was cut short by Coburn’s post-Belmont televised chomp on the hand currently feeding him.
However, that faux pas didn’t diminish the high of a lifetime.
The 2014 Derby wasn’t Sherman’s first rodeo. However, it was the first time he’d ever won the biggest and brassiest belt buckle. Because of Art’s respect for the game he realized that only through the fickle finger of fate had he been labeled recipient of a lightning bolt named California Chrome.
That’s why despite being one of the main participants in an NTRA pre-Pennsylvania Derby media conference call, the affable 77-year-old Sherman wasn’t immediately available. No, Art didn’t go all diva on us. He was busy successfully bidding on a son of Macho Uno who, according to Sherman, looks just like California Chrome. Jennie Rees for USA Today reported the colt cost $160K and is owned by Dr. Edward Allred, proprietor of Los Alamitos.
A veteran like Sherman knows the odds against ever having a runner like California Chrome again are massive. However, he also knows that the odds against were just as astronomical when Dumb Ass Partners called to see if Sherman would train their Golden State homebred. That’s why no owner or trainer with a good 2-year-old in the barn ever committed suicide. You just never know. - HPN
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So, the Breeders‘ Cup races have
been drawn and you‘re just
chomping at the bit to print out the
past performances and start
scuffing them up. It‘s a day you‘ve
been waiting for since Mucho
Macho Man and Will Take Charge
hit the finish line together in last
year‘s Breeders‘ Cup Classic. And
while the final preps may be in the
rearview mirror, they also are the
most important piece of evidence
to the case that reads ―Who will
win each Breeders‘ Cup race this
year?‖
But just how do you go about
interpreting what you saw? Who is
moving forward, who is going in
the wrong direction and who is
simply struggling to maintain their
form? Those aren‘t easy questions,
but if you can nail down their
answers, it will go a long way in
padding your wallet come October
31 and November 1.
So, with that in mind, I‘d like to go
over a few areas you should be
paying attention to first; second,
I‘d like to give a few historical
examples that will help further
identify what you should be looking
for come Breeders‘ Cup 31.
After All, It’s Just a Prep!
First and foremost, we have to
remember that the prep races
are just that—they are a
means to an end to get a horse
some final preparation for the
Breeders‘ Cup. In the perfect
world, said horse would win or run
well in their prep without
exceeding so much energy that he
or she would be left with a dry
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lemon come the Breeders‘ Cup. But
as we know in horse racing, things
seldom go according to plan.
Horses are born to run, and
oftentimes they get into a race and
instinct and the heat of battle take
over and what was supposed to be
nothing but a walk in the park or a
final tune-up turns into a
strenuous, all-out street fight.
So before you watch a race and
simply say ―X-horse won by 3
lengths and I can‘t see anyone else
from that race having a chance at
turning the tables on them in the
Breeders‘ Cup,‖ make sure to do
your due diligence and watch
the race a few times to see
exactly how it was run. Also
take note of the circumference of
the racetrack the preps are being
run over and how the track was
playing on that particular day.
Maybe a top sprinter was coming
off a two-month layoff and got
caught dueling on the inside in a
race that was nothing more than a
stepping-stone to the Breeders‘
Cup? Maybe a key contender for
the Classic drew the far outside
post in the Jockey Club Gold Cup,
which is utter doom, and raced
wide the entire way and lost so
much ground it gave him no
chance to run a race indicative of
his true talent? Maybe Keeneland
reverted back to the pre-Polytrack
days and was an inside paved
highway, so that closing filly you
liked so much going into the
Alcibiades really didn‘t run all that
badly when she was 6th in the race
after rallying from well back in the
field early on.
These all are things that a novice
might overlook, but a shrewd
handicapper needs to pay attention
to in order to be able to suss out a
few hidden gems come Breeders‘
Cup time. Pearl Jam may have
turned off a lot of people when
their first single off their Binaural
album was ―Nothing as It Seems,‖
but a truer thing has never been
said in horse racing. We here at
Horse Player Now pride ourselves
on watching race replays to get trip
notes that the casual bettor will
simply overlook, or more likely not
even see, because they didn‘t
watch the race and are simply
looking at a name on a piece of
paper. And while the mundane,
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everyday $10k claimers might be a
bit tough (and tedious) to watch on
a day-in and day-out basis,
there’s not much excuse for
not going over each and every
BC prep race again and again.
Time is clearly on your side; and if
you know what you are looking for,
you can unearth a ton of live
runners that will fall through the
wagering cracks come racing‘s
biggest day.
Gauging the Europeans
One of the hardest things for a
handicapper to do is get a true line
on a horse that has never run in
this country. European invaders will
begin showing up in the final round
of prep races, especially at Belmont
and Woodbine, and it‘s just very
tricky to get a proper gauge on
how good they are and how good
the competition they were facing
across the pond was.
Since we‘re talking about gauging
the Breeders‘ Cup prep races and
how to view them in light of the
big day, I‘m going to break this
down into two distinct categories;
the European that won their U.S.
prep race impressively and the
European that ran okay, but didn‘t
really inspire a ton of confidence in
their prep race. And what you read
in the ensuing paragraphs might
surprise you a bit.
The first type of horse is the
trickiest to read because, in all
likelihood, they were facing better
horses in Europe and simply caught
a group of Americans there for the
taking. So, you have to ask
yourself ―Was X-horse really as
good as he/she looked, or was it
simply a case of the class drop
doing the trick?‖ I‘m a bit lucky, in
that I do the newsletter for the
Breeders‘ Cup on a weekly basis
and have a very good handle on
the Europeans since I recap every
foreign group I race that is run
from July until the Breeders‘ Cup.
But it‘s not like I‘m privy to top-
secret information, far from it.
Sites like Racingpost.com will
go a long way in helping you
get a handle on just how good
the Europeans are, so do
yourself a favor and sift through
the past performances of the
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invaders and look up some of the
horses they‘ve competed against
overseas.
Anyone coming out of races at
Longchamp, Chantilly, York,
Leopardstown, Deauville and
Newmarket have likely been facing
better horses than their American
brethren, if you‘re comparing
group/grade I races to each other,
and down the class ladder.
And while it‘s not the
end all be all, you
can probably
assume that a
group II in Europe
isn‘t all that far
behind a grade I (turf)
race here in America.
But pay attention to the
dreaded ―Euro bounce‖ in the
Breeders’ Cup, as many
Europeans who come over to
America and run huge in their first
local start often regress in their
second one, usually at short odds,
too. I‘ll be much more inclined to
cast a wary eye on a European
who freaked stateside first-out,
because regression could very
likely be in the cards.
On the other hand, I‘m much more
apt to give a Euro who ran a
credible race in their U.S. debut a
much longer look in the Breeders‘
Cup because I think it‘s safe to
assume the best is yet to come. A
lot of horses take time to acclimate
to the states, so if a Euro runs a
good third or fourth in their debut
on our side of the pond, I‘ll look for
a lot better in their subsequent
start, at what is
oftentimes a much
better price.
Let‘s throw
another monkey
wrench into the
equation and try to rate
the European preps, which is
even tougher to do. I know, you‘re
probably saying ―It‘s hard enough
to gauge what I know here in
America, how the heck am I
supposed to gauge what I don‘t
know in Europe?‖ And it‘s a
legitimate argument, but not one
that is impossible either. The
Internet is a wonderful thing and
by simply doing a Google search
you‘ll likely to be able to find video
on any and every European prep
race you want. So again, go back
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and watch the races and look into
the depth of the field.
Racingpost.com has a tremendous
database and you can type in a
horse‘s name and get their lifetime
record and the races they‘ve run
in, and it allows you to instantly
click on their competition and see
the same for them as well.
But to really get a leg up on the
competition you need to take
things a step further and ask
yourself ―Who is here because
the Breeders’ Cup was the
main goal all along, or who is
here because their connections
want to sneak one more race
in before the end of the year,
regardless of whether their horse is
over the top or not?‖ And when
you‘re trying to get a gauge on the
Europeans, that is often the most
important question of all.
Listen folks, like it or not, the
Breeders‘ Cup is often an
afterthought to the majority of
European trainers and owners. Arc
Day at Longchamp in early October
is one of the biggest and most
historic stakes-packed days in all
the world and the newly created
set of championship races at Ascot
two weeks after has become just
as prestigious. Point being, most, if
not all of the major Europeans are
pointing to those two days and
therefore, anything after that is
just gravy. So just because X-horse
romps in a big group I at
Longchamp or Ascot doesn‘t mean
they are coming over here and
holding court on a group of
Americans (or fellow Europeans)
who are subpar on the class scale.
Don‘t forget that.
Know Your Horse,
Know Your Track
Another area I want to get into is
one that comes off the tongue of
even the most novice of
handicappers, but one that can pay
big dividends if you apply it
correctly – the ‗horse for the
course‘ angle, and the racetrack
they earned it on. This year (and
the past two years) the event has
taken place at Santa Anita, so it‘s
hardly uncommon to think a
California horse who has shown an
affinity for the local track will have
an edge in the respective Breeders‘
Cup race.
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But as much of an angle as that is
moving forward when you‘re
looking at the Breeders‘ Cup, it‘s
just as potent of an angle looking
back, when you‘re analyzing the
prep races, as many prep winners
will be doing so over tracks they
are used to and tracks that fit their
nuances.
Belmont is the prime example and
one that bears extreme scrutiny in
the Breeders‘
Cup…and
Keeneland
won‘t be that
far behind
either.
First at
Belmont, where the Beldame (a
key prep for the Breeders‘ Cup
Distaff), Champagne (Juvenile),
Frizette (Juvenile Fillies) and Kelso
(Dirt Mile) will be route distances,
but contested around one turn.
Fast-forward to Santa Anita, where
all four races—the Distaff, Juvenile,
Juvenile Fillies and Dirt Mile—will
be contested at two turns. The
difference is night and day, but
it often gets overlooked.
A one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race at
Belmont, like the Beldame, can
often play like a seven-furlong
sprint because there‘s such a long,
straight run down the backstretch
before the field gets to the far
turn. A one-turn mile is even more
sprint-tiered, as horses often will
simply run flat out for all eight
furlongs. Conversely, get them to
Santa Anita and a two-turn race
can play out
much
differently, and
things become
really dicey in a
hurry.
I might be a bit
premature to
jump on Keeneland, as we‘ve yet
to see a race run over their newly
installed dirt track, but you should
pay attention to how the surface
plays. If it‘s like the dirt track of
old, where essentially anyone who
got to the front only improved their
position, you might want to take
the results with a grain of salt
come Breeders‘ Cup time. That is,
of course, unless the Santa Anita
main track is playing the same.
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Too Good For Their Own Good?
The last type of horse I want to hit
on is the one that runs off the
screen in the final prep and
delivers an effort that is so far and
away above his or her career best
that he or she can do nothing but
regress at Breeders‘ Cup time.
We’ve seen it a lot in the past,
but the public never seems to
react the right way. On the face
of it, they see a horse enter a
respective Breeders‘ Cup race with
a huge figure, assume they are in
career-best form and that they‘ll
duplicate (or even move forward)
off the big-figure win. And while it
makes sense in theory, it rarely
happens.
I am very, very leery of the horse
who freaks in the final prep and
runs a figure so far removed from
what they‘ve done in the past.
Pairing huge figures is rarely done,
but moving forward off of them is
done even less. It‘s much more
likely a horse regresses—and in a
big way—than moves forward or
maintains their form ... especially
when the effort they forth in the
prep is far and above what he or
she has done in the past.
Historical Evidence
Now that we know what we‘re
looking for, and hopefully how to
spot it, let‘s brighten things even
more by giving some historical
evidence. Most of the horses you‘ll
see below are very familiar to even
the most causal of racing fans /
bettors, but nonetheless offer the
perfect examples of horses that fit
the profile of every angle outlined.
After All, It’s Just a Prep: You
don‘t have to go back too far to
come up with the most famous
horse who recently used a prep
race to do just that – prep for the
biggest race of his life. Trainer Al
Stall was on record as saying he
was using Belmont‘s Jockey Club
Gold Cup as nothing more than a
tightener for Blame, the clear-cut
best (male) handicap horse in the
country in 2010. So while some
fans might have been a bit hesitant
to play him in the Classic after a
listless and well-beaten 2nd-place
finish in the Gold Cup (pictured
next page vs. Haynesfield),
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those that kept the faith were
rewarded to the tune of $12.40
when Blame handed the immortal
Zenyatta her only career defeat in
her final race.
Gauging the Europeans
(Euro Bounce): This one might
be stretching your memory a bit,
but back in 2001 a 3-year-old filly
named Lailani (GB) came from
Europe and defeated a good group
of older Americans in Belmont‘s
Flower Bowl, while running a 111
Beyer (if that‘s your thing). The
Filly & Mare Turf was run over the
same course and distance four
weeks later and
Lailani was sent
off as the 5-2
second-choice
and didn‘t raise a
hoof while
finishing a non-
threatening fifth.
Euro bounce
anyone?
Gauging the
Europeans
(Over the Top):
You can argue
that Coolmore‘s Dylan Thomas
(IRE) didn‘t care for the bog that
was the Monmouth Park turf
course in 2007, but what you can‘t
argue is that he was clearly the
best turf horse in the world off a
resume that included three of
Europe‘s biggest group I‘s that
year alone – the King George VI
and Queen Elizabeth at Royal
Ascot, Irish Champion at
Leopardstown and historic Arc de
Triomphe at Longchamp (the last
two leading up to the Turf). But he
came to New Jersey just 20 days
after his Arc win in Paris and, at 4-
19
5, didn‘t fire when fifth at
Monmouth.
Maybe it‘s no coincidence that
Coolmore was at it again at Santa
Anita in 2012 when Excelebration
(IRE) was given the best chance to
upset Wise Dan in the Breeders‘
Cup Mile. Heck, some people (OK,
your author included) even thought
he was the horse to beat after
winning consecutive Group 1‘s in
Europe (the Jacques le Marois at
Deauville and Queen Elizabeth II at
Ascot). The problem was that
Excelebration was running back
just 14 days after winning the
Queen Elizabeth II. Anyone get the
feeling the Coolmore boys were
guilty of going to the well one too
many times? Excelebration
probably did, as he was a meek
fourth to Wise Dan at 2-1.
Know Your Horse, Know Your
Track: You only have to go back a
year to get a great example of just
what a horse who likes a particular
track can do on racing‘s biggest
day. No one is going to confuse
Mucho Macho Man with a Hall of
Famer and a win machine, but get
him over the Santa Anita main
track and he could mask as one.
He tipped his hand in 2012, when
he was 2nd, beaten just a half-
length, in the Classic behind Fort
Larned. Then he returned the next
year and did even better. Mucho
Macho Man prepped with a
powerful win over the track in the
Grade 1 Awesome Again then held
Will Take Charge and Declaration
Of War off at an 4-1 in America‘s
richest horse race.
Too Good For Their Own Good:
Maybe it‘s the New Yorker in me,
but two of the biggest examples of
a horse running too good for his
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own good came at Belmont, when
Uncle Mo (pictured previous
page) blitzed the field in the 2011
Kelso and Aptitude did the same
in the 2001 Gold Cup.
Uncle Mo was one of the most
talented horses in recent memory,
but, after his Kelso win, owner
Mike Repole made the mistake of
running him in the Classic at 1 ¼
miles, a distance far beyond the
son of Indian Charlie‘s scope. But
his huge—and fast (he went the
mile in 1:33.82 and ran a 118
Beyer)—win in the Kelso skewed
the betting public (and his owner)
into thinking he could win the
Classic, regardless of the distance.
Uncle Mo was sent off at 5-1 in a
race he couldn‘t win and, well, ran
like it – finishing 10th in what would
be the last start of his career.
Aptitude faced a similar fate after
he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup
by 10 lengths and ran a 123 Beyer.
Sure, the 12-hole going 1 ¼ miles
at Belmont in the Classic didn‘t
help, but he was bet down to 2-1
and never threatened en route to
an eighth-place finish. – HPN
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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
Each issue, we’ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV.
HOW WILL YOU HANDICAP KEENELAND NOW ON DIRT?
This is kind of a trick question. The question should always be: How will you handicap Keeneland, or any meet for that matter, period? Regardless of changes to surfaces, you should always enter every new meet with a fresh outlook and open mind, taking into consideration ALL the changes--not just track surface, but also new barns, new types of races, differing weather conditions, new maintenance crew, etc. as well as the history and what's happened in the past--EVEN IF there's been significant changes.
For example, if a trainer has done well historically at Keeneland, unless something has happened to change the composition, quality and makeup of his or her barn, I'm going to assume that trainer is going to gear up for the meet again, even though the track is no
longer Polytrack. Trainers excel because they know how to adapt to ever-changing circumstances, track surface just one of many, and, at the same time, do what they always do--train horses to win. Handicappers excel when they can do the same.
I'm obviously not going to consider Polytrack sire lines or horse's past history over synthetic tracks quite the way I used to, but, otherwise, I'm going to go horse-by-horse, race-by-race and handicap the same way I always handicap with the goal of assessing the quality, predicting the pace, analyzing patterns and, hopefully, coming up with some winners!
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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
HOW WILL THE BREEDERS’ CUP FARE IN 2015
AT KEENELAND?
One of my friends who occasionally goes to the races said it best: It's going to a different Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, but it's sure going to be special.
I'm biased when I say Keeneland in the fall has always been one of the prettiest, best places to race in the world, but I think a lot of people agree with me. Yes, the weather can vary, but odds are you will get crisp, refreshing weather and ideal conditions for horses from around the world.
I believe international horsemen will welcome the change of location and will respond enthusiastically, and I also believe some horsemen who have hesitated to ship all the
way to California also will embrace a central location and conditions. Because of the configuration and size of Keeneland, a lot of changes will be made both to the facility
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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
and to the operations of the Cup in general, I believe.
Based on what I've always experienced at Keeneland, though, there's no reason to believe those changes won't be implemented with style, sophistication and ease …with the focus on the event andracing itself, first and foremost.
It may be a more intimate Breeders' Cup, but it still will be the center of attention in every aspect in Lexington, Ky. The community will embrace it, and I believe once the world has come to Keeneland for the event and experiences it for themselves, everyone will embrace it as well.
WHAT ARE YOU MOST LOOKING FORWARD TO AT THIS YEAR’S BREEDERS’ CUP?
In a very different answer from one year ago, I think I'm most looking forward to seeing racing's new generation of stars.
With most of the BC alums retired, this year offers the sport a unique chance for horses to cement their credentials as the stars of their
divisions in just about every category. It's looking more and more like the 3-year-old championship--once a foregone conclusion based on the Triple Crown--may now be decided in the Classic.
Any one of several fillies or mares will most likely rise to the top of the heap with a win in the Distaff. The two-year-old races are more open-ended than in any other year in recent memory, with the early Derby favorite most likely coming from one of the juvenile races.
But there is one alum who can do what few horses have ever done before--possibly earn a third straight Horse of the Year title, depending, of course, on what happens in other races. More than anything, I am lookiing forward to, and hoping for, a healthy, happy Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup--something that just a few months ago seemed highly unlikely. He's already beaten the odds and won America's heart; I'm pretty sure I share that answer with everyone.
Follow me @CBredar
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The dirty word at Keeneland since 2006 has been Polytrack, and ironically it’s the return of dirt that supposedly will cleanse the wagering palate of many who fledfor more familiar betting ground.
The 2014 Fall Meet will be the first autumn stand since 2005 contested over a natural dirt surface. The natural curiosity of horseplayers is:
How will things change?
Believe it or not, my research says not very much.
After the 2008 Spring Meeting, with public outcry and bettinghandle respectively loud and soft, Keeneland contracted me to try and figure out why. My point then, and remains now, is that you have
to identify facts of what’s happening on the racetrack and not rely on the recollection of customers whose feelings rise and fall with the wagering tides.
I gathered every set of past performances and every chart of the races that had been held on Polytrack and turf to that point. Eventually it morphed into an electronically updated database known as Polycapping, which has been free on the Keeneland site ever since. What the data allowed me to do was to see exactly who was winning, how they were winning and try to connect dots as to why they were winning.
Over time, the process worked. Keeneland not only grew back its handle losses, but it experienced
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all-time meet record handles late in the Polytrack era. The war against the stigma had been won in the context of people wanting to bet the daily product.
But for whatever reason – some opine to lure the Breeders’ Cup home to Lexington, which makes the most sense – Keeneland returns to dirt this season and we are somewhat back to square one in our research.
Just as I did in 2008, recently it was time to re-stack the papers, run the numbers and take a look at what success looked like at Keeneland – this time during the 2005 Fall Meet, the last time we saw the dirt oval in the autumn.
Because of my intimate knowledge of the trends and patterns, it was a quick-developing realization as I played “Can you guess thewinner?” in looking back at thepast results. Knowing what I know now, that I didn’t know back then (as the saying goes), I would see a mid-level claimer on the main track and say immediately, “Arlington horses.”
Sure enough, time and again, I quickly realized that almost all the same patterns that existed during
the Polytrack era were played out on the dirt in the 2005 Fall Meet as well. Granted, a lot has changed geopolitically in racing since then – Presque Isle now exists, River Downs doesn’t; Arlington was dirt then, now it’s Polytrack; Turfwaywas THE place to be in Kentucky in September, now that calendar page has given way to Churchill Downs and the exploded purses at Kentucky Downs.
I know Keeneland’s pre-Polytrack reputation was basically shooting fish in a barrel, picking the early speed horse and going to the window with confidence. Easy game. Not so fast.
2005 Fall Fact Poly Fall
9.15 Field Size 10.04 27.5% Fav Win% 31.6% 7.12/1 AvgWinOdds 6.98/1
0-8 Stakes Favs 16-69 1-21 2yoMSWfavs 64-155
10.8% %15/1+Wins 9.5%
Despite a sizable difference in field size being lower, the 2005 Fall Meet races on dirt weren’t any easier to decipher despite a public outcry that it was the Polytrack that was a Keeneland conundrum. In fact, they were considerably harder to get by most any metric.
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First, let me be candid and say that I totally did not expect those results. Like many, my use of memory recalled a time when racing at Keeneland seemed simpler. But it wasn’t. It’s good now to have the facts to back it up.
Even in the face of much Polytrack scrutiny, I argued that Keeneland’s melting pot of tracks feeding the short-length meeting was the culprit of confusion. When more than 20 different feeder tracks produce WINNERS at a 15-day meeting, it’s an exceptional challenge for handicappers unlike any other venue in America.
I thought it was the duplicity of the Polytrack that was the lure of so many horses from so many places. Connections thought they could win races on a neutral field that brought together dirt and turf animals and leveled the playing field. Or so the theory.
So imagine my surprise when I charted all the winners from the 2005 Fall Meeting at Keeneland on the dirt and turf surfaces.
‘05 Fall Fact ‘13 Poly
27 # of Prep Locales for Winners
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That’s right, there were MORE locales represented by winners during the last dirt/turf Kee Fall Meet than the most recent Poly/turf Fall Meet.
Keeneland’s melting pot preceded the Polytrack era. It’s truly remarkable when you consider that 156 races during the ’05 Fall Meet were won by horses from 27 different venues.
And which feeder track produced far and away the most dirt winners at that ’05 Fall stand? Turfway Park with 33, every single one of which was making a Polytrack to dirt surface change since TP had gone to synthetics already by that point.
2005 Fall Winning Prep Locales
Dirt Wins Track
33 Turfway Park
12 Keeneland (2nd sts)
11 Arlington Park
10 Saratoga
9 Belmont
5 Monmouth
The thought that Polytrack ran the New York horses out of Keeneland in the Fall really doesn’t carry weight, and it probably should be a foreshadow that we won’t see many of them this Fall on dirt.
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Turf, that’s a different matter. Just as it was throughout the Polytrack era, the NYRA circuit remains a solid place to look for Keeneland turf winners…but hardly a cavalry charge of runners making the trek with the Belmont championship meet in swing at the same time.
2005 Fall Winning Prep Locales
Turf Wins Track
6 Kentucky Downs
5 Belmont
4 Saratoga
4 Arlington Park
3 Delaware Park
Now, let’s look at the most recent ’13 Fall Meet in terms of grass production and where the winners exited preps.
2013 Fall Winning Prep Locales
Turf Wins Track
5 Churchill Downs
5 Kentucky Downs
3 Presque Isle
3 Belmont
3 Woodbine
Dirt or Polytrack, it appears that you’ll see much of the same that we’ve seen for years at Keeneland. It’s going to be a crazy melting pot of horses from all over the country
with more than two dozen winners coming from different final prep locations.
Trainer Turnover
Some major makeovers in the training colony will make this year’s Fall Meet different than the last we saw on dirt in ’05. Gone are the likes of Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel and Bob Holthus, who since have passed. Frank Brothers and John Ward have retired.
Nick Zito was the top hand in the win column in ’05 at Keeneland, but his stable has lost most of its powerful owners and become a shadow of itself. The same can be said for the likes of Neil Howard and Carl Nafzger, now operating on a much smaller scale this time around. Patrick Biancone has not been statistically relevant since his run-ins with the medication police, but once was a Keeneland force.
Guys like Kenny McPeek, Wesley Ward and Mike Maker have ruled the roost at Keeneland in the Polytrack era, but were non-existent in the ''05 Fall Meet...not registering a single win.
Two names to watch in the training game for the return to dirt are
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Steve Asmussen (pictured right) and Larry Jones. Both were highly successful at the end of the dirt era and did not support the Polytrack program with much zeal after their initial failures. Asmussen was the king of 2-year-olds in the ’05 Fall, winning no less than 5 baby races … and judging by his Septemberdomination of the juvenile ranks at Churchill Downs, he appears to be in a similar fold as Keeneland returns to dirt. Jones won 5 races during the ’05 Fall on dirt, including a pair of 2YO baby races.
Other trainers I’ll be expecting to see more from on the dirt:
Tom Amoss Dale Romans Brad Cox Kellyn Gorder Eddie Kenneally Dallas Stewart Bernie Flint
It will be interesting to see the results from Graham Motion andWayne Catalano, whose Polytrack support in the Fall had been highly productive. While both are more than capable and successful dirt trainers, they have a decent amount of their stable stock vested in turf and synthetic-pedigreed runners.
Notable Stuff
Only 2 of 120 dirt races during the ’05 Fall Meet were won by Ellis Park preppers (all in claiming/maiden claiming) … The average winner in the 8 dirt stakes at the ’05 meeting paid $22.35 as favorites struck out … Longshots ruled the 2YO MSWs on dirt with average win odds of 9.5-to-1 … First-time starters won 5 of the 22 juvenile maiden races at the ’05 Fall Meet on dirt … Of the 19 dirt winners at ’05 Fall who prepped on the NYRA circuit, only 3 came inclaiming/maiden claiming races … Kentucky Downs ran only a 6-day meet in 2005 to feed the Keeneland stand, and its 8 winners included 2 stakes and 4 allowances.
- HPN
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Regional stars like Ben’s Cat shine in state-bred showcases
By Jerry Shottenkirk
Temperatures drop, leaves turn
and Thoroughbred owners and
breeders get ready to reap the
rewards of developing their
own breeding program as well
as that of the state in which
they live.
Tis the season for the state-
bred championship days, and
there is no shortage–especially
in the middle of this month.
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The lineup includes:
Classics Night at Remington
Park (Friday, Oct. 17). It‟s a
showcase for Oklahoma-breds
and includes 8 divisional races
worth more than $1M;
Jim McKay Maryland Million
Day at Laurel Race Course
(Saturday, Oct. 18). Maryland-
breds get after this long-time
fixture, which includes 9 races
worth more than $1M;
Empire New York Showcase
Day at Belmont Park
(Saturday, Oct. 18). The NY-
breds gather to race for more
than $1.75M through 8 races;
West Virginia Breeders
Classics at Charles Town
(Saturday, Oct. 18). C-Town
welcomes state-breds for 9
races worth more than $1.2M;
New Mexico Cup Day at Zia
Park (Sunday, Oct. 26). New
Mexico-breds (Thoroughbreds
and Quarter Horses) travel to
Hobbs for a dozen races
worth $2M.
Other state-bred events include the
Best of Ohio at Belterra Park on
Saturday, Oct. 4 (5 races worth
$750,000 for Ohio-breds), and next
month you can look for Indiana-
breds getting the call through 4
races worth a total of $500,000 at
Indiana Grand on Nov. 1; and the
Gulfstream Park Million Preview
(eight $75,000 races) on Nov. 8.
Favorite Sons and Daughters
If you don‟t like chalk, turn away.
If the idea of betting chalk or
trying to beat prohibitive choices
in the straight pools makes you
queasy, it may not be for you.
But most of us are game enough
to take a shot. In these days of
multi-race plays and dime supers,a player can get very creative.
Some horses can compete against
open company and when they turn
back to state-breds, they are
usually treated as a no-miss. But
they do miss, occasionally.
Connections often bypass more
difficult open races for “easy
money.” But sometimes, the
degree of difficulty is higher than
expected.
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One of the most unusual racescame in the 1994 Oklahoma
Classics Day Classic at Remington
Park. I‟ve seen a vast majority of
the more important races there
since the track opened in 1988,
and this one was the wildest – but
also marked the career end for an
outstanding horse.
Brother Brown, a son of Oaklawn
Handicap winner Eminency, was
second in a run of three Oklahoma-
breds or foals that could compete
anywhere. First, there was Clever
Trevor, who won the G1 Arlington
Classic and G3 Saint Paul Derby
prior to a runner-up finish to Easy
Goer in the G1 Travers.
And then there was Brother Brown,
followed by Silver Goblin, a runner-
up to Cigar in the G1 Oaklawn
Handicap. Clever Trevor ran before
the Classics program was founded
and Silver Goblin was not eligible
for the program.
Brother Brown had won the 1993
Classic under Hall of Famer Pat
Day (pictured), perhaps the most-
played jockey between either
coast. Brother
Brown won the
‟93 edition as the
2-5 favorite and
trainer Ron
Goodridge
used it as a
springboard to bigger open races.
Early ‟94 was a gem for Brother
Brown, who won the G3 New
Orleans Handicap, and followed
with a third in the G2 Oaklawn
Handicap and then won the G2
Washington Park Handicap at AP.
Despite a six-month layoff going
into the ‟94 Classics, Brother Brown
wasn‟t about to be anything but 1-
9. Pat Day returned, and a
courageous group of seven
challenged the „mortal lock.‟
This edition of the Classic didn‟t
end well for Brother Brown. He
battled through moderate fractions
for the quarter and half-mile, and
the large crowd groaned as Day
stood up and pulled up the heavy
favorite. The Oklahoma-bred
champ was injured. While not life-
threatening, it was enough to
make it the last race of Brother
Brown‟s career, which showed him
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with a 20: 14-2-3 record and
earnings of $791,448.
As a result, the winner was a long
shot. His name: Axle Lode. His ATB
payoff: $133.80, $43.80 and $11.
He was trained by Troy Sanderson
and had entered the stakes race
coming off an eighth-place finish
for a $20,000 claiming tag. Axle
Lode was third behind 1-5 fillies
and mares in the next two Classics:
Slide Show in 1995 and Belle of
Cozzene in 1996.
Axle Lode raced until he was 12
and made his last start at the now
defunct The Woodlands in Kansas.
He won 18 of 107 starts and
$223,382, and for a day, he was
king.
Fortunately, it doesn‟t always take
a career-ending injury to get a
heavy favorite to lose in such a
race. More times than not, the
favorites do very well. Like Brother
Brown, several others have come
into state-bred races as unqualified
successes against open foes. The
result is usually a 1-5 or 2-5 price
on the tote board.
Tote-smashing payoffs aren‟t the
rule, even when the mighty fall.
Ben‟s Cat, in all of his $2.1-million
earnings glory, has lost a Maryland
Million race, which some players
might find hard to believe. He‟s
had far more positives than
negatives, but we know automatic
victories do not exist in events that
are deeper than walkovers.
Last year, Roadhog took on the
mighty Ben‟s Cat in the Maryland
Milllion Turf and escaped with a
neck victory (click to watch).
In defense of Ben‟s Cat, the race
was at one mile, not the sprint
distances he‟s dominated. Entering
that race, Ben‟s Cat owned the
Turf Sprint at 5 ½ furlongs.
Breeder-trainer King T. Leatherbury
didn‟t start the Parker‟s Storm Cat
until he was 4, and after just a few
starts he won the 2010 Turf Sprint
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by 4 ½ lengths at 6-5 odds. He
followed with a 1-2 win in 2011,
and a score at 2-5 in 2012.
You cannot think about state-
bred days without thinking
about the Maryland Million and
Ben‟s Cat.
Handling the Heavyweights
Favorites have more good luck
than bad when it comes to state-
bred races. Odds are often too low
for straight betting, so exactas,
trifectas, superfectas and multi-
race plays are probably the better
options.
While short-priced favorites often
are successful, they can take the
run out of other contenders. If a 2-
5 shot outruns other speed horses,
that other “speed” often retreats
and many times plodders can be
along for a piece of the gimmicks.
Another thing to consider is level of
competition. A change from open
company to state-breds doesn‟t
automatically move up a horse.
Some state-bred races are actually
tougher than open, depending on
the track. If a horse beats fellow
state-breds in stakes races, he can
probably do the same to a horse
that‟s coming out of open
allowance races. Generally, open
stakes wins are better than state-
bred stakes wins, but not always.
You have to appreciate heavy
chalk. You just have to know how
to approach it. Since a lot of
money is merged as horses are in
the gate and often re-configured
during the running of a race, the
odds can change. If you have it in
your mind that a horse should be
1-5 and he‟s 3-5 with a minute to
post, chances are he‟s probably
going to drop down to where you
bel ieve he should be.
– HPN
Lucy's Bob Boy figures to be a standout in the WV Breeders Classics off his win in the
Ramey Hcp.
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Challenge Handicapping
The AQHA Challenge
Championships offers
handicappers the
opportunity to test their
skills and be rewarded.
By Jennifer K. Hancock
The 22nd annual AQHA Challenge
Championships returns to Prairie
Meadows in Altoona, Iowa, Oct. 18.Modeled after Thoroughbred racing’s Breeders’ Cup races, the Challenge Championships weredesigned to give older horses a
place to showcase their talents.
Horses are nominated to the
program through a nomination fee
that increases from $300 for
weanlings to $20,000 for horses 3
years old or older. Horses qualify for
the championships by winning
regional races held across the
country and in Mexico, Canada and
Brazil. The October 18 card features
12 stakes races with purses worth
more than $1.3 million highlighted
by the running of the $350,000
Challenge Championship (G1) for
older sprinters racing at the classic
distance of a quarter mile.
The Grade 1 Challenge
Championship offers a berth to the
Champion of Champions at Los
Alamitos in December and is one of
the biggest races for older
American Quarter Horses of the
year. The race has been a stepping
stone to year-end champion honors
for older runners for the past two
decades.
The Challenge Championship card
offers handicappers the
opportunity to test their
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handicapping skills and find good
prices. With horses shipping to
Prairie Meadows from tracks across
the country, it’s the perfect time to
review some Quarter Horse racing
handicapping tips.
Not knowing if a track has a bias
can hurt a handicapper unfamiliar
with a new track. Prairie
Meadows offers free
statistics at its website
by clicking the racing
link. Look for the
Quarter Horse Meet link
under Horsemen’s Info.
The $125,000 Red Cell
Distance Challenge
Championship (G1) is an
870-yard race. Prairie
Meadows is a one-mile
oval, and inside post positions have
historically had an advantage in
“hook races.” Through September
14, Prairie Meadows has conducted
11 races at 870 yardsor longer
distances. Post positions 1,2 and 6
have each had three winners from
those 11 races. Statistically, more
than 80 percent of the winners
have come from those three
positions. Post 4 has had two
winners. When handicapping the
Distance Championship, I will
definitely be accounting for post
positions with my top choice.
Looking at races under 870 yards
shows that from 109 races
contested at Prairie Meadows
through September 14, the 1 post
has the highest win
percentage at 18.35
percent. Occasionally, the
inside post will be slower
due to a deeper track
where Thoroughbred and
Quarter Horses race at the
same track. This does not
appear to be the case at
Prairie Meadows. Only 13
races have featured a full
field of 10 horses this
meet, but so far no
winners have come out of the 10
hole. In a game of making the
most out of percentages, these
stats might make a difference while
handicapping the Challenge
Championship field. Post positions
will be drawn October 15 for the
Challenge Championship races.
Utilizing leading trainer/jockey stats
has helped many handicappers
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gain an edge with their picks. The
current leading jockeys at Prairie
Meadows as of September 14 are
Cesar Gomez with 23 wins, Stormy
Smith with 16 wins and David E.
Brown with 14 wins. In 2012,
Smith, had a big night on the
undercard of the Challenge
Championship, which
was held the night
before the big event,
when he rode four
stakes winners. The
undercard races are
dominated by local
horses and it makes
sense that a top local
rider would have an
advantage in securing
the best mounts.
With more than a million
dollars on the line, expect the big
guns to invade the jock’s room. G.
R. Carter Jr., John Hamilton and
Cruz Mendez are the national
leaders in races won. Cody Jensen
and Ramon Sanchez are ranked
second and third respectively
behind Carter in money earned.
The best usually ride the best so
my handicapping will not ignore
which horses these top jockeys
chose for the big dance. The
American Quarter Horse
Association offers free leaders lists
at www.aqharacing.com.
The last berths to the Challenge
Championship were earned at
Prairie Meadows on September 13.
These hot horses will be competing
in October against horses
that might have earned a
berth in South America in
February or Mexico in
March. I like horses that
have had an out over the
track and even more so if
they have proven a winner
over a surface, but don’t
count out the invaders.
Some of the stakes will
feature horses that
qualified through trial races such as
the Altoona Derby and Jim Bader
Futurity and are not part of the
Challenge Race Program. These
races give handicappers the
opportunity to compare times over
the Prairie Meadows surface. Many
of the horses racing in the
Challenge Championship races will
ship in for the big event.
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Shippers fared well in 2012 when
the Challenge Championships first
visited Iowa. Rylees Boy came
from California to win the
Challenge Championship; All About
Larry earned a berth in Texas and
shipped in to win the Distance
Challenge; Ultimate Wave came
from Colorado to win the Derby
Challenge and Distaff Challenge
winner Fredaville earned her berth
in Oklahoma. The home track was
not shut out though as Smith
guided Heroes Heart to victory in
the Juvenile Challenge.
The Challenge Championships gives American Quarter Horse owners and breeders the opportunity to compete for bragging rights when horses from across the world converge at Prairie Meadows. The event offers handicappers the chance to cash in at the windows while predicting the winners among the America’s fastest horses.
Jennifer K. Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Association’s Racing Aces
Fan Education team. Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom, the press box
coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park, the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing
Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing.
SATURDAY, OCT. 18
PRAIRIE MEADOWS
2014 Bank of America®
Challenge Championships; 12
races including the finals of the
following championship stakes:
$350,000 Bank of America® Challenge Championship (G1)
$200,000 Adequan Derby Challenge Championship (G3) $150,000 John Deere Juvenile Challenge Championship (G2) $100,000 Merial Distaff Challenge Championship (G1) $100,000 Red Cell Distance Challenge Championship (G1) $75,000 Pfizer Starter Allowance Challenge Championship
2014 Host Site
Prairie Meadows Racetrack and Casino1 Prairie Meadows DriveAltoona, IA 50009Website: www.prairiemeadows.comPhone: 1-800-325-9015
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Gold Cup & Saucer: A Must-See Event
By Ken Warkentin
The prestigious Gold Cup & Saucer at Red Shores Charlottetown Driving Park has not only evolved into the premier race in Atlantic Canada, it’s also one of the great events in all of harness racing, and fittingly caps off Old Home Week on Prince Edward Island.
This year’s race (Aug. 16) offered a record purse of $75,000, more than 20,000 crammed into historic Charlottetown Driving Park (established in 1888) and legendary track announcer Vance Cameron revved the crowd with his signature “Boom! Just like that!”
Nothing compares to the magic and emotion of the Gold Cup & Saucer post parade when Faith McKenney
sings the Island Hymn, honoring the athletes, and the rich history of the race and the sport, each horse is introduced under spotlight and the drivers salute accordingly.
I was fortunate to be part of the simulcast show for the second straight year. It’s a fun and busy week of doubleheaders, special presentations, warm hospitality and the best seafood!
The event is all about traditions. It’s the way it was, and thankfully, the way it still is.
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The Gold Cup & Saucer goes back to the roots of harness racing, recognizing and appreciating those who have contributed to the sport, as well as the people who support the industry and keep it thriving today. The people there love their harness racing and it’s imbedded in their culture.
Horsemen ship in from all over the Maritimes and the competition is fierce. Winning a race during Old Home Week takes on added significance; the winner’s circle is crowded with family/friends, and celebrations are aplenty. It all began in 1960, founded by Frank Acorn and Bill Hancox, and
the name of the race is a combination of two famous races – the Cheltenham Gold Cup in England and The Cup & Saucer Stakes in Ontario, and the inaugural running won by Dee’s Boy & Lloyd MacAuley was a big success.
Soon, some glamour was added to the race with eight young ladies chosen to represent each finalist, wearing costumes made from racing silks. Each Gold Cup & Saucer Ambassador annually draws a horse from the race and the girls keep a busy schedule promoting the event.
Also, the Gold Cup & Cup Saucer Parade, held since 1962 on the
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Friday before the race in downtown Charlottetown, highlights the importance of the province’s racing industry and showcases the Island’s heritage. The town virtually shuts down and 50,000 line the streets.
The PEI Family Fun Fair features livestock and horse shows, agricultural exhibits and competitions, Sounds of the Island concerts and amusement rides. Hotels are booked far in advance and the restaurant patios are full.
55 years of Gold Cup & Saucer history has produced a star-studded storybook of notable achievements and milestones, a long list of champions, heart-stopping finishes, and record crowds in a carnival-like atmosphere cheering on the best the sport has to offer.
PEI Sports Hall of Fame member Mike MacDonald’s upset with Sandy Hanover in 1995 was his record fifth win as a driver.
In 2004, Driven To Win established a new Maritime record of 1:51.2 with Charlottetown native and Hall
of Famer Wally Hennessey in the sulky.
Emotions were high in 2008 when 59-year-old Maritimes legend Earl Smith became the oldest driver to win it with Pownal Bay Matt in 1:53.4.
Part Shark would lower the track record to 1:51 with rising star Scott Zeron driving in 2010.
The father and son combo of Dr. Ian Moore and Tyler Moore equaled that mark in 2012 with Eighteen. Dr. Moore drove his first Gold Cup & Saucer
winner in 1988 with The Papermaker.
Trainers from other parts of Canada and the US have sent horses to Charlottetown in search of that elusive Gold Cup & Saucer trophy, and to just be a part of the atmosphere and the hoopla.
Escape The News, trained by the powerful Ron Burke Stable, and with Charlottetown’s leading driver Marc Campbell, set a new track record of 1:50.4 in 2013. Ron Burke’s father Mickey Burke stated through post-
55 years of Gold Cup & Saucer history has produced a star-studded storybook of notable
achievements…and record crowds in a carnival-like
atmosphere cheering on the best the sport has to offer.
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race tears it was not only one of his greatest wins, but the most memorable trip he’d ever taken and vowed to return.
The Burke’s were indeed back in 2014 with the favorite and Trial 1 winner Aracache Hanover and Take It Back Terry. It was a battle of powerhouse stables as Rene Allard had three trainees to contend with, and another prominent Pennsylvania-based trainer, Chris Oakes, sent out two finalists. Allard’s Mickey Hanover equaled the track record of 1:50.4 in Trial 2, but drew post eight for co-owner/driver Daniel Dube, who had made a special trip from New York.
When the dust settled, Bigtown Hero equaled the 1:50.4 track standard in an 8-1 upset. It was a thrill of a lifetime for the Quebec-born Allard, who also finished third with Island Jet. The winning six-year-old by American Ideal was a private purchase the day before the draw for the Trials (eliminations) for Allard’s parents Danielle and Michel, and Ives Sarrazin. Allard’s father, Michel had flown in for the race and arrived just 15 minutes before post time, which is always at midnight.
For driver Brad Forward, a native of Newfoundland, the victory was a last-minute call to duty and a life-changing trip to the Charlottetown winner’s circle. An emotional Forward declared it the most exciting win in his life and nothing compared to it.
The Gold Cup & Saucer is not only a must see for harness racing fans, it’s a popular attraction at the height of the all-important tourist season on beautiful Prince Edward Island. Red Shores Racetrack & Casino is all decked out,
from the elegant Top of the Park Dining Room and it’s award-winning culinary team, the Francis McIsaacand Drive for Charity events, the action-packed doubleheaders, the fan-friendly promotions and the traditions.
The Gold Cup & Saucer at Red Shores Racetrack & Casino is a major highlight at one of Atlantic Canada’s leading entertainment destinations, offering racing, dining, gaming, tradition and a unique Island experience. There is nothing like Showtime at Charlottetown!
- HPN
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JOURNAL TO FOLLOW AMERICA’S
FASTEST ATHLETES!
MARCHING
TO HIS OWN
BEAT By Brian W. Spencer
With well-publicized stories of
horses with much higher profiles
getting lost in the shuffle after their
racing days are over, it is easy to
imagine how a horse like Silver
Drummer could have gotten lost.
A six-time winner from 74 career
starts with earnings $242 shy of
$100,000, he broke his maiden in
his sixth lifetime start as the 2-1
favorite but would head to post as
the public's choice just one more
time in his final 68 races. A classic
racetrack underdog, he was sent
off at higher than 20-1 in 31 starts
while grinding out small paychecks
from his 17 superfecta finishes.
When his form soured badly
throughout the second half of a
2005 campaign that saw him
beaten an average of more than 25
lengths through his last five starts
of the year, it was time for a
change.
In stepped trainer Jon Cowan and
co-owner Dave Harris (pictured
above with Silver Drummer) in
November of 2005 to purchase the
underachiever for $1,000. Harris
had been introduced to
thoroughbred racing through a
chance meeting with Cowan, who
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stabled racehorses at the same
farm at which Harris's daughter,
now a competitive hunter and
jumper rider, would ride. Cowan
invited Harris to the track to watch
morning workouts, piquing his
interest.
Their friendship grew, and not long
after, Harris received a call from
Cowan and they discussed
purchasing “Drummer,” as he's
referred to now.
“Jon called me and just said,
'Dave, we've got to get this
horse,'” Harris recalled. “When we
brought him to the farm in
Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, he was
underweight so we just let him
have a few months of R&R and let
him be a horse.
“He put on some weight and was
in much better shape when we
took him back to the track.”
A non-threatening sixth in his first
race for his new connections,
Drummer won his second race
back at Hawthorne, returning
$31.80. After holding his form for
several more starts, he once again
tailed off near the end of the
campaign, and after 15 races in
2006 for his new team, the time
came for Drummer to leave racing
behind him in December of 2006.
“He just wasn't running well
anymore, so I brought him back to
the farm in Wisconsin,” said Harris.
“He had run 72 times over five
years and really earned it. He
deserved to have us say that he
had done enough.”
As racehorses are wont to do,
however, Drummer had a different
plan.
“I got a call from Jon one day in
the winter after we retired him,
and he said 'Have you seen what
Drummer does in the paddock?'”
Harris laughs and continues, “He
was just standing out in the
paddock always trying to get
horses to race him.
“We decided that we would
give him one more shot on the
track because he hadn't really
seemed to settle in to being
retired the way we had hoped.”
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Drummer returned to the track in
March of 2007 and promptly won
his first race back in early April at
odds of 36-1 (pictured center).
He returned to finish a badly
beaten fifth 17 days later, leading
Cowan and Harris to determine
that at age nine, he was going to
do his best
running with
lengthy breaks
between starts,
and four months
after the first
attempt,
Drummer was
retired a second
time.
As though he
had been initiating races at the
farm to get back to the track just
to prove a point, Drummer had no
such issues adjusting to the retired
life the second time around.
“The second time we retired him,
he settled right into it and became
a part of the herd out in the
paddock. He was out there with a
couple of other thoroughbreds and
they would just gallop around the
paddock shoulder to shoulder,”
said Harris. “The first time we had
plans to retire him, he still wanted
to race, but the second time we
tried, it was like his mentality
changed and he was just happy
to be a horse and not race
anymore.”
Now 16 years
old, Drummer
lives a well-
earned life of
leisure at the
same Pleasant
Prairie, farm
at which he
first arrived,
underweight,
nearly nine years ago.
Now more interested in carrots,
eating grass, and finding new ways
to relax than he is in attempting to
organize unsanctioned farm races,
Drummer is never far from his
human best friend Dave Harris,
who lives 5 minutes down the road.
“He's really a neat, smart horse.
You know, you can never know
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exactly what these animals
are thinking,” said Harris, “but
the one thing I always find
funny is that even though he
has adjusted so well to being
retired and is enjoying himself
so much, every now and then
I think there's always a part
of him that's still going to be
a racehorse.”
“The ringtone on my cell
phone is the call to post,”
Harris explained, “and I swear to
you, every time I get a call
when I'm around him, he perks
up and gets really focused on
that noise. I've never seen him
react to anyone else getting a call.
Maybe it's nothing and I'm reading
too much into it, but part of me
really thinks that he hears that and
wonders if it's time to go to the
races.”
“I've always had a great bond with
him from the very beginning when
we were giving him time off right
after we bought him. I came out
here almost every day to groom
him, feed him, and spend time with
him, and it got to the point where
he would see my car coming down
the drive and he would run across
the paddock and wait for me every
day. That's what led me to break
the first rule of owning horses:
don't get attached. He just got
under my skin and I decided I was
going to take care of him for
good.”
When asked what made Silver
Drummer unforgettable – the kind
of horse who could not be sent off
to retirement at any other farm or
given away to any other owner,
Harris doesn't have a grand
answer, but he has the one that
matters most for Drummer: “I
don't know. I just like him.” - HPN
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This month’s topic of review:
TRIP HANDICAPPING
Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.
“Trip Handicapping” puts your eyes to the test and matches them against your handicapping competition. What’ seen in each race, and how it’s interpreted and then forwardly applied, is what separates trip handicapping from many other less-interpretive aspects of picking a winner.
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed trip handicapping races.
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Trip Handicapping Radio Discussion:
Equibase chart caller Keith Feustle and Saratoga-based handicapper Nick Tammaro provided one of the more descriptive and informative discussions on Trip Handicapping we’ve ever had in our Sept. 2, 2014 lesson.
Feustle: “You have to be cognizant and catch any trouble … where were they on the track and how did they finish? I know as a gambler myself, that’s what I want to see in the chart… and did they run into any trouble?” Listen in.
Check out our 2013 full-
length Trip Handicapping
video to help you learn
what to look for in several
aspects of the pursuit.
Additional Night School Links
2012 season Trip Handicapping live chat. 2011 season Trip Handicapping live chat. Guests included: Andy Serling, Dan Illman.
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COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernow.com for the racing industry’s FREE national online fan education program.
OCTOBER 7 RACING’S TOWN HALL MEETING
Our 3rd annual meeting between
racing execs and the horseplayers gives you a chance to be heard.
OCTOBER 14 AQHA CHALLENGE
SEMINAR
We analyze the races for the AQHA Challenge
& discuss general strategies for shortline
handicapping.
OCTOBER 21 IDENTIFYING
KEY RACES
Key races are those proven to produce
results with their next-out starters. Learn to get a jump on them!
OCTOBER 28 BREEDERS’ CUP
SEMINAR
A day after the BC races are drawn, our experts help you land a winner for the big
day to come.
LOOK AHEAD: NOV 4 ELECTION NIGHT: HORSEPLAYERS
As the nation goes to the polls, we survey the
class on several hot-button topics within the
game today.
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
Point Given / Photos By Z
OCTOBER 2014 1 IN-bred showcase (Ind), 4 stakes
3 Alcibiades (Kee), 2yof, 8.5F Phoenix (Kee), 3&up, 6F
4 Shadwell Mile (Kee), 3&up, 8F-T Breeders’ Futurity (Kee), 2yo, 8.5F First Lady (Kee), f/m, 8F-T TCA (Kee), f/m, 6F
Woodford, 3&up, 5.5F-T Champagne (Bel), 2yo, 8F Frizette (Bel), 2yof, 8F Hill Prince (Bel), 3yo, 9F-T Temperence Hill (Bel), 3&up, 13F City of Hope Mile (SA), 3&up, 8F-T LA Woman (SA), f/m, 6.5F SA Sprint Champ (SA), 3&up, 6F Swingtime (SA), f/m, 8F-T Indiana Derby (Ind), 3yo, 8.5F Indiana Oaks (Ind), 3yof, 3yof, 8F Schaefer Mile (Ind), 3&up, 1m70yd FSS-In Reality (GP), 2yo, 8.5F FSS-My Dear Girl (GP), 2yof, 8.5F Durham Cup (WO), 3&up, 9F Armed Forces (GP), 2yo, 8F-T Our Dear Peggy (GP), 2yof, 8F-T NY Breeders Fut (FL), 2yo, 6F
5 Spinster (Kee), f/m, 9F Bourbon (Kee), 2yo, 8.5F-T Futurity (Bel), 2yo, 6F Matron (Bel), 2yof, 6F Grey (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Mazarine (WO), 2yof, 8.5F Surfer Girl (SA), 2yof, 8F-T Zuma Beach (SA), 2yo, 8F-T Harris Farms (Fno), 3&up, 6F
8 Jessamine (Kee), 2yof, 8.5F-T
10 Franklin County (Kee), f/m, 5.5F-T
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
11 Queen Eliz II Cup (Kee), 3yof, 9F-T Cal Distaff (SA), f/m, 6.5F-T Knickerbocker (Bel), 3&up, 9F-T Victorian Queen (WO), 2yo, 6F 8 Miles West (GP), 3&up, 8F Best of Ohio (Btp), 5 stakes PA Showcase (Prx), 4 stakes El Joven (Ret), 2yo, 8F-T La Senorita (Ret) 2yof, 8F-T
12 Cup & Saucer (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Bunty Lawless (WO), 3&up, 8F-T Athenia (Bel), f/m, 8.5F-T Anoakia (SA), 2yof, 6F Bull Dog (Fno), 3&up, 9F
13 Pebbles (Bel), 3yof, 8F-T Pumpkin Pie (Bel), f/m, 7F Ballerina (Hst), f/m, 9F Speakeasy (SA), 2yo, 6F Carotene (WO), 3yof, 9F
14 Governor’s Cup (Zia), 2yo, 6F Permian Basin (Zia), 2yof, 6F
16 Sycamore (Kee), 3&up, 12F-T
17 Valley View (Kee), 3yof, 8.5F-T Oklahoma Classics (RP), 8 stakes
18 AQHA Challenge (Prm), 5 stakes Maryland Million (Lrl), 9 stakes British Champions (Ascot), 6 stakes Empire Showcase (Bel), 8 stakes WV Brdrs Classics (CT), 9 stakes Raven Run (Kee), 3yo f, 7F Cellars Shiraz (GP), 3yof, 8F-T Showing Up (GP), 3yo, 8F-T California Flag (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T Fiesta Mile (Ret), f/m, 8F-T Hall of Fame (Ret), 3&up, 8.5F-T Bienvenidos (TuP), 3&up, 6.5F
19 Canadian Int’l (WO), 3&up, 12F-T EP Taylor (WO), f/m, 10F-T Nearctic (WO), 3&up, 6F-T Ontario Fashion (WO), f/m, 6F Dowager (Kee), f/m, 12F-T Bowl Game (Bel), 3&up, 10F-T Uniformity (SA), 3yo, 6.5F-T
24 Gaylord Memorial (RP), 2yof, 6.5F My Trusty Cat (DeD), 2yof, 7F
25 Fayette (Kee), 3&up, 9F Autumn Miss (SA), 3yo f, 8F-T Bold Ruler (Bel), 3&up, 7F Chelsey Flower (Bel), 2yof, 8F-T Jean Lafitte (DeD), 2yo, 8F Gin Rmmy Chmp (GP), 3&up, 5F-T Princess of Palms (TuP), f/m, 6F Diana (Tdn), f/m, 6F
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
26 Awad (Bel), 2yo, 8F-T Turnback the Alarm (Bel), f/m, 8.5F
Rags to Riches (CD), 2yof, 8F Street Sense (CD), 2yo, 8F Lure (SA), 3&up, 8F-T Fanfreluche (WO), 2yof, 6F New Mexico Cup (Zia), 8 stakes
31 – BREEDERS’ CUP BC Championships (SA), 4 stakes
Dirt Mile, JF Turf, J Turf, Distaff
Damascus (SA), 3&up, 7F
Twilight Derby (SA), 3yo, 9F
Golden State Juv Fil (SA), 2yof, 7F
Marathon (SA), 3&up, 14F
Dream Supreme (CD), f/m, 6F
Magnolia (DeD), f/m, 8F
Nov 1 – BREEDERS’ CUP
BC Championships (SA), 9 stakes
Classic, Turf, Mile, Sprint, Juvy, Juvy Fillies, FM Turf, FM Sprint, Turf Sprint
Golden State Juv (SA), 2yo, 7F
Juv Turf Sprint (SA), 2yo, 6.5F-T
Sen Maddy (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T
Chilukki (CD), f/m, 8F
Bet On Sunshine (CD), 3&up, 6F
Mountaineer Mile (Mnr), 3&up, 8F
Display (WO), 2yo, 8.5F
Maple Leaf (WO), f/m, 10F-T
Delta Gold Cup (DeD), 3&up, 8F
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
Oct 1 – AQHA national poll Oct 1 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 2 – BC Challenge Players Guide Oct 3 – Keeneland opens Oct 3 – Hawthorne opens Oct 3 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 3 – Online: Remington chat Oct 4 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 4 – TV: NBCSN, Kee stakes Oct 5 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 5 – TV: NBC, Spinster/Bourbon Oct 7 – Online: Night SchoolOct 8 – AQHA national poll Oct 8 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 8 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 9 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 10 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 10 – Online: Remington chat Oct 11 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 12 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 12 – Portland Meadows opens
Oct 14 – Online: Night SchoolOct 15 – AQHA national poll Oct 15 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 15 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 15 – Golden Gate opens Oct 16 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 17 – Can Int’l Wagering Guide Oct 17 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 17 – Online: Remington chat Oct 18 – AQHA Challenge at Prm Oct 18 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 18 – Meadowlands (TB) closes Oct 18 – Turf Paradise opens Oct 19 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 19 – Belterra closes Oct 21 – Online: Night SchoolOct 22 – AQHA national poll Oct 22 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 22 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 22 – Delaware Park closes Oct 23 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 24 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 24 – Online: Remington chat Oct 25 – Keeneland closes Oct 25 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 26 – Churchill Downs opens Oct 26 – Belmont closes Oct 28 – Online: Night School ***
Oct 29 – AQHA national poll Oct 29 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 29 – Aqueduct opens Oct 31 – TV: NBCSN, BC Friday Nov 1 – TV: NBCSN/NBC, BC Sat
*** = BC Handicapping seminar
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE CANADIAN INT’L: 4 straight winners have exited European preps, the last 3 of which via France’s Longchamp … Often this race is a softer spot from the world’s biggest stages witnessed by 6 straight winners exiting losses (3rd or worse in each) … The last truly Woodbine-based winner of this race was Thornfield in 1999.
MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Venerable globetrotter The Joshua Tree notched his record 3rd win in this race and for his 3rd different trainer! Despite his affinity for the course and situation, he was dismissed at 6/1 odds following a poor showing in the Arc.
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPER’S AIDES:
Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 Joshua Tree E. Dunlop R. Moore
’12 Joshua Tree M. Botti L. Dettori
’11 Sarah Lynx J. Hammond C. Soumillon ’10 Joshua Tree A. O’Brien C. O’Donoghue
’09 Champs Elysees B. Frankel G. Gomez ’08 Marsh Side N. Drysdale J. Castellano
’07 Cloudy’s Knight F. Kirby R. Zimmerman ’06 Collier Hill A. Swinback D. McKeown
’05 Relaxed Gesture C. Clement C. Nakatani
’04 Sulamani S. bin Suroor L. Dettori
Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 Joshua Tree 13th, Longchamp (FRA) ’12 Joshua Tree 3rd, Longchamp (FRA)
’11 Sarah Lynx 4th, Longchamp (FRA) ’10 Joshua Tree 5th, Doncaster (ENG)
’09 Champs Elysees 4th, Woodbine
’08 Marsh Side 4th, Woodbine ’07 Cloudy’s Knight 1st, Woodbine
’06 Collier Hill 1st, Taby (SWE) ’05 Relaxed Gesture 3rd, Belmont
’04 Sulamani 1st,York (ENG)
CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL
October 19, 2014
OCTOBER RACE OF THE MONTH
Joshua Tree has made the Canadian International his personal playground.
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Be careful what you boycott.
The impact on handle at Churchill Downs from a grassroots boycott has been significant in 2014. The numbers don’t lie: a social media-organized boycott of the racing at the iconic track has been part of a very difficult year and public relations run.
The boycott’s attempt, led by the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA), is to financially injure Churchill Downs for its takeout increases, and thus force a change in policy to return to its previous rates which were in line with Keeneland and among the best rates the industry offers.
Sounds like a plan, and one that conceivably works. Except for the fact that Churchill Downs, Inc. reported record profits during the spring term in which the very boycott was working so well.
You see, the difference between Churchill Downs and Churchill Downs, Inc. is so much more than a three-letter abbreviation. The
boycott against betting the Churchill Downs racetrack doesn’t dent the business model of CDI. In fact, it only enhances its corporate position that horse racing is a losing business other than the Kentucky Oaks and Derby days. A failing bottom line throughout the spring and fall meets only bolsters that stance and will give horse-players and horsemen a whole lot less of the game we love.
Continuing to boycott Churchill Downs won’t punish the fat cats at casino-happy CDI, but rather the dedicated employees at the Louisville racetrack who will see their budgets slashed and co-workers disappear. It will make offering an enjoyable day of racing on TV or in-person more difficult.
If you don’t want to bet Churchill because of the higher takeout, that’s your prerogative as a shopper. But don’t think you’re getting back at the man. You’re actually playing into his plan. - JP
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