hpc - name
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HPC - NAME. Mike Bodner Development Training Branch [email protected]. Excessive Rainfall. What is Excessive Rainfall? Rainfall heavy enough to cause excessive runoff or flooding How do we produce an Excessive Rainfall Forecast? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
HPC’s Products & Services
P QPFs & Excessive Rainfall
P Probablistic Heavy snow
P Probablistic Icing
P Medium Range
P Basic Weather
P Surface Analysis
P Model Diagnostics
P NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database)
P South American, Caribbean & Saudi Arabian Forecasts
P Tailored forecasts in response to emergencies
P Backup to TPC/NHC Hurricane forecast program
Excessive RainfallExcessive Rainfall What is Excessive Rainfall?What is Excessive Rainfall? Rainfall heavy enough to cause excessive runoff or floodingRainfall heavy enough to cause excessive runoff or flooding
How do we produce an Excessive Rainfall Forecast?How do we produce an Excessive Rainfall Forecast? Based on expected short-term rainfall and RFC computed flash Based on expected short-term rainfall and RFC computed flash
flood guidance issued each dayflood guidance issued each day One & three hour FFGOne & three hour FFG We don’t use 6, 12 or 24 hour guidanceWe don’t use 6, 12 or 24 hour guidance
Excessive Rainfall Forecast GraphicExcessive Rainfall Forecast Graphic
Excessive Rainfall Forecast GraphicExcessive Rainfall Forecast Graphic
Isolated Excessive Rainfall(ball & chain line)
PUsed in situations when the ingredients are present forexcessive rainfall, but the overall situation is marginal(low confidence forecast)
Used more in summer months• Due to scattered nature of convection• Lack of organized activity
Used heavily in the western US• Monsoon season
Used more when FFG numbers are relatively high
QPF Day 1QPF Day 1
QPF Day 2QPF Day 2
HPC Text DiscussionsHPC Text Discussions
Model DiagnosticModel Diagnostic Day 1-3 QPFDay 1-3 QPF Excessive RainfallExcessive Rainfall
National Precipitation Prediction Unit National Precipitation Prediction Unit
(NPPU)(NPPU) HPC and SAB Working RelationshipHPC and SAB Working Relationship
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS is co-located with HPC is co-located with HPC
The SAB precipitation meteorologists The SAB precipitation meteorologists provide 6 regularly scheduled satellite provide 6 regularly scheduled satellite briefings per day to HPC QPF forecastersbriefings per day to HPC QPF forecasters
SAB ProductsSAB Products
Satellite precipitation estimates Satellite precipitation estimates Guidance for heavy rain and snow Guidance for heavy rain and snow
associated with winter storms associated with winter storms Satellite precipitation estimate Satellite precipitation estimate
message (SPENES) message (SPENES)
► GOES infrared (IR), visible, and water vapor imagery► GOES Sounder data and Derived Product Imagery ► GOES satellite-derived winds ► Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) ► NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) ► Surface and upper air data
Goes Sounder PW DataGoes Sounder PW Data
AMSU Microwave DataAMSU Microwave Data