HPC Market Update, HPC Trends In the Oil/Gas Sector and

IDC's Top 10 Predictions for 2014 Earl Joseph, HPC Program Vice President

ejoseph@idc.com

IDC Has >1,000 Analysts In 52 Countries

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IDC’s HPC Team

§  Earl Joseph IDC HPC research studies, HPC User Forum and strategic consulting

§  Steve Conway Strategic consulting, HPC User Forum, market trends, Big Data

§  Chirag DeKate HPC QView, new technology trends, Big Data, innovation awards program

§  Lloyd Cohen HPC data analysis and workstations

§  Mike Thorp Government account support and special projects

§  Kurt Gantrish Government account support and special projects

§  Gabrielle Cattaneo IDC EMEA

§  Charlie Hayes Government HPC issues, DOE and special studies

§  Mary Rolph HPC User Forum conference planning and logistics

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About IDC: IDC HPC Activities §  Track all HPC servers sold each quarter §  Conduct 4 HPC User Forum meetings each year §  Publish 65 plus research reports each year §  Visit all major supercomputer sites & write reports §  Assist in collaborations between buyers/users and

vendors §  Assist governments in HPC plans, strategies and direction §  Assist buyers/users in planning and procurements §  Maintain 5 year forecasts in many areas/topics §  Conduct special research studies

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Key Trends in HPC The global economy in HPC is growing well, but will

likely see a decline in 2013 §  HPC servers grew 7.7% in 2012 to reach $11.1B §  Supercomputers jumped 29.6% year/year in 2012 §  The HPC ecosystem (servers, storage, etc.) is expected to exceed

$20B in 2013 §  The lower half of the market regained momentum in 2013

Major challenges remain for datacenters §  Power, cooling, real estate, system management §  Software hurdles: costs; programming for scale and heterogeneity §  Finding the right compute mix as coprocessors, accelerators grow

Storage and data management are more crucial §  High performance data analysis (HPC Big Data) is growing fast

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IDC HPC Competitive Segments (in 2012)

Departmental ($250K - $100K)

$3.0B

Divisional ($250K - $500K)

$1.2B

Supercomputers (Over $500K)

$5.6B

Workgroup (under $100K)

$1.2B

HPC Servers

$11B

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HPC WW Market Trends ($K): By Competitive Segments

2010 2011 2012 1H2013 2012/ 2011

Supercomputers

3,475,577

4,370,194

5,654,960

1,725,756 29.4%

Divisional

1,268,735

1,236,684

1,216,187

702,067 -1.7%

Departmental

3,342,747

3,467,271

2,979,230

1,853,790 -14.1%

Workgroup

1,411,264

1,225,910

1,247,366

809,349 1.8%

Total

9,498,323

10,300,058

11,097,743

5,090,962 7.7%

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HPC WW Market Trends: By System Units Sold

2010 2011 2012 1H2013 2012/ 2011

Supercomputers

2,560 2,908 2,400

748 -17.5%

Divisional

3,914 3,724 3,663

2,189 -1.6%

Departmental

20,382 20,625 16,981

11,048 -17.7%

Workgroup

92,988 84,294 81,104

50,963 -3.8%

Total

119,844 111,551

104,148

64,947 -6.6%

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HPC WW Market Trends ($K): By OEM 2011 2012 1H2013

IBM 3,362,098 3,551,723 1,563,771 HP 3,307,427 3,419,554 1,573,560 Dell 1,493,289 1,493,172 737,733 Cray 155,620 353,800 122,220 SGI 225,741 274,693 216,743 Fujitsu 120,351 686,657 65,139 NEC 84,141 64,112 37,106 Appro 135,360 111,648 - Dawning 102,923 115,359 74,906 Bull 327,536 60,494 40,049 Other 847,140 966,531 659,736 Total 10,300,058 11,097,743 5,090,962

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HPC Forecasts: By Competitive Segment

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Supercomputer Divisional Departmental Workgroup

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Buyer Insights: High Performance Data Analysis (HPDA) Is Transforming HPC

Architectures Will Need to Shift Away from Extreme Compute-Centrism

§ Static searches will give way to dynamic pattern discovery

§  67% of surveyed HPC sites are running big data workloads

§ HPDA includes data-intensive simulation & advanced analytics

§ Most HPDA work will happen on clusters, but not everything

§ Data movement is a big challenge

§ Storage vendors will benefit

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The HPC Market Beyond The Servers: The Broader HPC Market

Worldwide HPC Compute, Storage, Middleware, Application and Service Revenues

($M)

                        2011   2012   2017   CAGR (12-17)  

Server   10,300   11,098   15,441   6.8%  

Storage   3,664   4,059   6,008   8.2%  

Middleware   1,147   1,254   1,568   4.6%  

Applications   3,370   3,621   4,837   6.0%  

Service   1,801   1,877   2,368   4.8%  

Total   20,282   21,909   30,223   6.6%  

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HPC Trends In The Oil/Gas Sector

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Worldwide (WW) HPC Server REVENUE Growth By Sector

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Worldwide (WW) HPC Server Growth By Sector -- PROCESSORS

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Worldwide (WW) HPC Server Growth By Sector – BY NODES

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The Current HPC Situation: Use Of GPUs/Co-processors Today What percentage of the applications on your HPC systems exploit accelerators or co-processors today?

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The Current HPC Situation: Budgets in the Oil/Gas Sector

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The Current HPC Situation: What Is Wanted In Partners What are the key technical or business-partner-related attributes that would cause you to rank one vendor's product over another:

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The Current HPC Situation: Barriers To Expanding The Use Of HPC What do you see as the barriers to expanding your use of HPC/technical computing?:

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IDC’s Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2014

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IDC Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2014 1.  HPC Server Market Growth Will Continue in 2014, after a decline in 2013 2.  The Global Exascale Race Will Pass the 100PF Milestone 3.  High Performance Data Analysis Will Enlarge Its Footprint in HPC 4.  ROI Arguments Will Become Increasingly Important for Funding Systems 5.  Industrial Partnerships Will Proliferate, with Mixed Success 6.  x86 Base Processor Dominance Will Grow and Competition Will Heat Up 7.  Storage and Interconnects Will Benefit as HPC Architectures Gradually

Course-Correct from Today’s Extreme Compute Centrism 8.  More Attention Will Be Paid to the Software Stack 9.  Cloud Computing Will Experience Steady Growth 10. HPC Will Be Used More for Managing IT Mega-Infrastructures

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§  2010-12: 3 successive years of record revenue growth §  2013: A $1 billion dip from exceptional 2012, but the

lower half came back strong §  We forecast that all HPC competitive segments will

grow in 2014

1. HPC Server Market Growth Will Continue in 2014, after a Decline in 2013

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§  China, the U.S., Europe (PRACE) and Japan will likely deploy 100PF systems in 2H 2014 to 2015 •  Watch for the roles played by indigenous Chinese,

Japanese processors §  Peak ES systems will start arriving ~2020

•  Power efficient (20 to 30MW), early ES systems will wait till 2022-24

§  The ES race will be as much a funding competition as a technology competition

2. The Global Exascale Race Will Pass the 100PF Milestone

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3. High Performance Data Analysis Will Enlarge Its Footprint

§  HPDA = Big Data Using HPC §  Data-intensive modeling/simulation + newer analytics

methods §  Growing in established HPC domains + new wave of

commercial firms §  67% of HPC sites are using HPDA today

§  Data analysis uses 30% of the HPC compute cycles on average

§  2016 forecast: §  HPDA servers: $1.2B §  HPDA storage: $800M

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High Performance Data Analysis Will Enlarge Its Footprint

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There Are New Technologies That Will Likely Cause A Mass Explosion In Data – Requiring HPDA Solutions

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§ The former Cold War arms race is becoming an economic race

§ HPC is a proven accelerator of economic competitiveness

§ High-end supercomputers now cost $200-500 million § ROI can be a scientific advance or corporate profit,

revenues, new jobs or retaining jobs § More large HPC centers have industry outreach

programs §  IDC’s HPC ROI pilot study for DOE quantified

208 examples

4. ROI Arguments Will Become Increasingly Important for Funding Big Systems

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5. Industrial Partnerships Will Proliferate, with Mixed Success

§  Many national labs/centers added industrial outreach programs in recent years

§  Partnerships typically have an ROI component (technology transfer, economic development)

§  Some labs/centers have had shining successes (e.g., INCITE, SciDAC), while others are at the start of the learning curve and struggling

§  It is important to share what has and hasn’t worked •  The HPC User Forum is one platform for sharing

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6. x86 Base Processor Dominance Will Grow and Competition Will Heat Up

Base Processors §  x86-based systems already

capture about 80% of all HPC server revenue

§  The acquisition of IBM’s x86 server business should enable Lenovo to further advance its x86 position

§  To grow share, other base processors (e.g., Power, ARM) will need to step up innovation and provide clearly differentiated value

Coprocessors (2013 MCS) §  Sites using coprocessors/

accelerators jumped from 28% in 2011 to 77% in 2013

§  Nvidia leads the pack today §  Future purchase intent is

strong for both Nvidia and Phi -- FPGAs are a distant third

§  Most are still experimental §  Growth barriers remain in

programming difficulty and lack of strong software ecosystems

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Storage §  The fastest-growing HPC

market segment •  $4.1B in 2012, $6.0B in

2017 (8.2% CAGR) •  $6B = size of HPC server

market in 2000 §  HPC storage revenue will

grow to record levels §  The HPC storage market

remains fragmented §  The big players are turning

their attention to this market §  HPDA will boost storage

budgets

Interconnects §  The HPC interconnect

market is in transition §  Data movement/

management is a major paint point •  Multi-year shift away from

today’s extreme compute-centrism

§  The big players are turning their attention to this market •  Established players are

advancing hard •  Much anticipation about

Intel’s fabric plans

7. Storage and Interconnects Will Benefits As Architectures Course-Correct from Today’s Extreme Compute Centrism

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§  Growing needs can no longer be postponed •  Robustness/resiliency in mega-compute and

storage systems where there may always be some components in failure mode

•  Autonomic and machine learning functions to relieve programmers/users

•  New collaboration modes and environments (teams working across distances, cloud computing)

•  Rebalancing the stack as architectures shift from extreme compute centrism

§  Vendors are already putting more focus on the stack

§  IDC forecast: HPC systems software will grow to $1.5B in 2017

8. More Attention Will Be Paid to the Software Stack

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§  Sites exploiting cloud computing to address parts of their HPC workloads rose from 13.8% in 2011 to 23.5% in 2013 •  Public and private clouds were about equally represented

§  Today’s public clouds are still best suited for EP workloads •  More private- and public-sector organizations are using public

clouds for drug candidate screening, other EP jobs •  Main cloud use scenarios: surge workloads, R&D projects, SMBs

without HPC data centers §  Public cloud use will accelerate as clouds overcome

barriers: •  Data security, data transfer times, non-EP performance

9. Public Cloud Computing Will Experience Steady Growth

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10. HPC Will Be Used More for Managing Mega-IT Infrastructures

§  For managing large and diverse mega-IT environments •  Dealing highly mixed systems (hardware, software, different

user access devices, etc.) •  Mega-IT centers linked between major geographies

§  For security and RAS •  Dealing with constantly failing components •  Monitoring the system complex for intrusion vs. failures

§  For example: •  PayPal using HPC to mange their IT infrastructure •  Google hiring HPC experts to design their next-generation

architectures

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HPC Will Be Used More for Managing Mega-IT Infrastructures

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In Summary

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§  HPC is still expect to be a strong growth market •  Growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value is helping to drive

high-end sales •  Low-end buyers are back into a growth mode

§  HPC vendor market share positions will likely shifted greatly in 2014 and 2015

§  Recognition of HPC’s strategic/economic value will drive the exascale race, with 100PF systems in 2H 2014/2015 •  20/30MW exascale systems will wait till 2022-2024

§  The formative HPDA market will expand opportunities for vendors

Conclusions

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Essential Guidance

Major Customer Pain Points = Opportunity Areas For Vendors

New challenges affecting HPC data centers -- the increase in CPUs, heterogeneous processing, server units and data is creating significant IT challenges in:

•  Managing HPC system complexity •  Balancing user needs & peak/Linpack performance expectations •  Managing data volumes and types •  Specifying and managing storage •  Planning for power/cooling and space •  Application scaling and hardware utilization •  Making optimal use of new processor and system designs •  Finding the appropriate role for private/public cloud computing

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In Conclusion: Why HPC Is Projected To Keep Growing 1.  The low half of the market is finally back to a recovery mode 2.  It has become a competitive weapon 3.  Governments view HPC leadership as critical

§  For national pride, but more importantly for economic prosperity

§  It use to be 1 large supercomputer – now its multiple ones 4.  There are very critical HPC issues that need to be solved

§  Global warming, alternative energy, safe NE, financial disaster modeling, healthcare, homeland security, …

§  And 3D movies and large scale games are fun 5.  The combination of big data and HPC is creating many new

opportunities 6.  At the same time, “live” science and “live” engineering costs

have escalated §  And time-to-solution is months faster with simulations

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Please email: hpc@idc.com Or check out: www.hpcuserforum.com www.hpcuserforum.com/ROI www.idc.com

Questions?

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