howard herzog / mit laboratory for energy and the environment the role of coal generation in a world...
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Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
The Role of Coal Generation in a The Role of Coal Generation in a World of Greenhouse Gas World of Greenhouse Gas
Regulation Regulation
NARUC Summer MeetingNARUC Summer Meeting
Howard HerzogHoward HerzogMITMIT
July 17, 2007July 17, 2007
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
Coal Today Coal Today
• Coal is relatively cheap and abundantCoal is relatively cheap and abundant
• Criteria pollutant targets (SOCriteria pollutant targets (SOxx, NO, NOxx, ,
particulates, Hg) can be met at reasonable particulates, Hg) can be met at reasonable costs through at least 2020 and probably costs through at least 2020 and probably well beyondwell beyond
• Over 50% of US electricity demand met by Over 50% of US electricity demand met by coalcoal
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
Coal from the Climate Change Coal from the Climate Change PerspectivePerspective
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
MIT Coal StudyMIT Coal StudyOverviewOverview
• Follow-on to Follow-on to The Future of Nuclear PowerThe Future of Nuclear Power On web at mit.edu/nuclearpowerOn web at mit.edu/nuclearpower
• Full report released March 14Full report released March 14 On web at mit.edu/coalOn web at mit.edu/coal
• AuthorsAuthors John Deutch, Ernie Moniz (PIs)John Deutch, Ernie Moniz (PIs) Jim Katzer (Executive Director)Jim Katzer (Executive Director) Stephen Ansolabehere, Janos Beer, Denny Ellerman, Julio Stephen Ansolabehere, Janos Beer, Denny Ellerman, Julio
Friedmann, Howard Herzog, Jake Jacoby, Paul Joskow, Lester Friedmann, Howard Herzog, Jake Jacoby, Paul Joskow, Lester Richard, Greg McRae, Edward SteinfeldRichard, Greg McRae, Edward Steinfeld
Key question: What actions regarding technology do we take now to impact
GHG emissions on a Gigaton scale in 2050?
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
Carbon Capture and StorageCarbon Capture and Storage
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the critical enabling technology that would reduce critical enabling technology that would reduce COCO22 emissions significantly while also emissions significantly while also
allowing coal to meet the world’s pressing allowing coal to meet the world’s pressing energy needs.energy needs.
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
Global Primary Energy Consumption under High COGlobal Primary Energy Consumption under High CO22 Prices PricesLimitedLimited Nuclear Generation Case Nuclear Generation Case
MIT Coal Study Figure 2.4MIT Coal Study Figure 2.4Initial COInitial CO22 Price of $25/tCO Price of $25/tCO22 in 2015 with 4%/yr increase in 2015 with 4%/yr increase
0
200
400
600
800
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
EJ/
Yea
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Energy Reduction from ReferenceNon-Biomass RenewablesCommercial BiomassNuclearCoal w/ CCSCoal w/o CCSGas w/ CCSGas w/o CCSOil w/o CCS
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
MIT Coal Study MIT Coal Study Key TakeawaysKey Takeaways
• Technology readiness is critical – there are myriad of Technology readiness is critical – there are myriad of options to pursueoptions to pursue
• Don’t preclude options by anointing technology Don’t preclude options by anointing technology winners prematurelywinners prematurely
• We need to drastically increase R&D to bring COWe need to drastically increase R&D to bring CO22 capture technologies to fruition. There is urgency to capture technologies to fruition. There is urgency to move ahead now if we are to reach gigaton (Gt) scale move ahead now if we are to reach gigaton (Gt) scale by 2050. Large scale demonstration projects are keyby 2050. Large scale demonstration projects are key
• No showstoppers, but moving from the megaton (Mt) No showstoppers, but moving from the megaton (Mt) scale to the Gt scale is a major challengescale to the Gt scale is a major challenge
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
SCPC vs. IGCC ComparisonSCPC vs. IGCC Comparison
• Without captureWithout capture Efficiencies similarEfficiencies similar Both handle criteria pollutant requirementsBoth handle criteria pollutant requirements IGCC costs moreIGCC costs more Limited IGCC operating experience (availability)Limited IGCC operating experience (availability)
• With captureWith capture Incremental cost less for IGCCIncremental cost less for IGCC Energy penalty less for IGCCEnergy penalty less for IGCC IGCC more complexIGCC more complex PC more fuel flexiblePC more fuel flexible
SCPC = Supercritical Pulverized CoalSCPC = Supercritical Pulverized Coal
IGCC = Integrated Coal Gasification Combined CycleIGCC = Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
0
1
2
Combustion Gasification
Rel
ativ
e C
osts
Capture
No Capture
Relative Cost of ElectricityRelative Cost of Electricity
PCPC IGCCIGCC
Variability in costs can be from plant location (elevation, cooling water temperature, local costs, Variability in costs can be from plant location (elevation, cooling water temperature, local costs, etc.), coal type, criteria emission levels, capacity factor, etc.etc.), coal type, criteria emission levels, capacity factor, etc.
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
0
1
2
Combustion Gasification
Rel
ativ
e C
osts
Capture
No Capture
Relative Cost of ElectricityRelative Cost of Electricity
PCPC IGCCIGCC
Variability in costs can be from plant location (elevation, cooling water temperature, local costs, Variability in costs can be from plant location (elevation, cooling water temperature, local costs, etc.), coal type, criteria emission levels, capacity factor, etc.etc.), coal type, criteria emission levels, capacity factor, etc.
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
MIT Coal StudyMIT Coal StudyFinding #6Finding #6
• It is premature to select one coal conversion It is premature to select one coal conversion technology as the preferred route for cost-technology as the preferred route for cost-effective electricity generation combined effective electricity generation combined with CCS. with CCS. VariabilityVariability in location, coal type, etc. in location, coal type, etc. UncertaintyUncertainty in technological progress in technological progress
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
RetrofitsRetrofits
• MIT Coal Study – “Coal plants will not be MIT Coal Study – “Coal plants will not be cheap to retrofit for COcheap to retrofit for CO22 capture.” capture.”
• Limitations at existing plantsLimitations at existing plants SpaceSpace Storage site accessStorage site access EfficiencyEfficiency
• Design of optimal “capture” plant differs Design of optimal “capture” plant differs from that of a “no capture” plantfrom that of a “no capture” plant
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
MIT Coal Study MIT Coal Study Capture-ReadyCapture-Ready
• Other than a few low-cost measures such as Other than a few low-cost measures such as providing for extra space on the plant site providing for extra space on the plant site and considering the potential for geologic and considering the potential for geologic COCO22 storage in site selection, the storage in site selection, the
opportunity to reduce the uncertain eventual opportunity to reduce the uncertain eventual cost of CCS retrofit by making preparatory cost of CCS retrofit by making preparatory investment in plants without COinvestment in plants without CO22 capture capture
does not look promising. does not look promising.
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
MIT Coal StudyMIT Coal StudyFinding #5Finding #5
• Current evidence indicates that it is scientifically feasible Current evidence indicates that it is scientifically feasible to store large quantities of COto store large quantities of CO22 in saline aquifers in saline aquifers
• In order to:In order to: Address outstanding technical issues that need to be resolved to Address outstanding technical issues that need to be resolved to
confirm CCS as a major mitigation optionconfirm CCS as a major mitigation option Establish public confidence that large scale sequestration is Establish public confidence that large scale sequestration is
practical and safe practical and safe
it is urgent to undertake a number of large scale (on the it is urgent to undertake a number of large scale (on the order of 1 Mt/yr injection) experimental projects in order of 1 Mt/yr injection) experimental projects in reservoirs that are instrumented, monitored, and analyzed reservoirs that are instrumented, monitored, and analyzed to verify the practical reliability and implementation of to verify the practical reliability and implementation of sequestration.sequestration.
None of the current sequestration projects worldwide meets all of these criteria
Howard Herzog / MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment
Contact InformationContact Information
Howard HerzogHoward Herzog
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Laboratory for Energy and the Environment (LFEE)Laboratory for Energy and the Environment (LFEE)
Room E40-447Room E40-447
Cambridge, MA 02139Cambridge, MA 02139
Phone: 617-253-0688Phone: 617-253-0688
E-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
Web Site: sequestration.mit.eduWeb Site: sequestration.mit.edu