how to prioritize climate change adaptation measures? · •policy makers at national and local...
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Yeora Chae
How to prioritize climate change
adaptation measures?
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Contents Introduction
Prioritizing adaptation options
Identifying evaluation criteria
Further steps
Climate change adaptation
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• Even if stringent global GHG emissions reductions prove to be successful, further climate change seems to be inevitable (IPCC 2007)
• Climate change impacts will be unevenly distributed and put additional pressure on social-ecological functions and structures.
• Policy makers at national and local levels have begun to initiated dedicated adaptation practices to counter adverse impacts.
• Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly
• To maximize the benefit of adaptation, prioritizing adaptation options are essential
1. Research needs
Ⅰ. Introduction
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2. Research tasks
• To investigate adaptation measures and plan
• To categorizes adaptation options
• To analyze methodologies for evaluating
adaptation options
• Multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, etc.
• To develop a methodology for prioritizing
adaptation options
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1. Objective of adaptation: What is successful adaptation?
Ⅱ. Climate change adaptation
• To maintain climate-related risks at present level • To reduce risks from present level if current risks are
unacceptable • To minimize exposure of most vulnerable population
• cost effectiveness • equity: distribution of benefit • sustainability
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2. Classification adaptation strategies
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Benjamin L. Preston(2011)
The ‘percentage of plans incorporating the specified strategy’ represents the proportion of the 57 adaptation plans that had at least one adaptation option consistent with a given adaptation strategy (UKCIP 2008).
3. The percentage of adaptation strategies
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4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (group)
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80
100
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새로운 기회 활용
위험방지 및 감소
위험 공유 및 유포
철수 이주관리
지원사회 구조 수립
정책 전략 개발
정보 수집 및 교육
Exploiting new opportunities
Avoiding or reducing the risks
Sharing or spreading the risks
Gathering and sharing information
Creating a supportive institutional framework Creating supportive social structures
Bearing the risks
Public Relations, Education, and International Cooperation
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정보 수집 및 교육
정책 전략 개발
지원사회 구조 수립
철수 이주관리
위험 공유 및 유포
위험방지 및 감소
새로운 기회 활용
5. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (type)
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Exploiting new opportunities
Avoiding or reducing the risks
Sharing or spreading the risks
Bearing the risks
Creating a supportive institutional framework
Creating supportive social structures
Gathering and sharing information
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1. The process of evaluation in adaptation
1) Identification of core stages in adaptation planning from the decision science and development evaluation literature
2) Identification of critical planning processes associated with each planning stage that can be used as evaluation criteria
3) Selection of adaptation plans for evaluation
4) Scoring of plans against evaluation criteria
5) Categorization of adaptation options embodied within plans
Ⅲ. Prioritizing adaptation options
Benjamin L. Preston et al.(2011) 10
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1) Organizing stakeholder group
2) Listening stakeholder’s opinion in pre-assessment
3) Building adaptation assessment framework through legal,
social, political process
4) Vulnerability assessment
5) Identification of priority option through stakeholder’s
agreement
6) Public hearing
2. The process of evaluation in adaptation (Han, 2007)
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1) Benefits of adaptation occurs far future and uncertain.
2) Hard to measure benefits of adaptation
3) Benefits of adaptation may be realized by combination of
options: hard to measure each option’s individual benefit
4) Climate change impacts would differ depending on
physical, economic, social condition: regional, sectoral
analysis required.
3. The feature of evaluation in adaptation
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• Climate change impacts &
risk
• physical, economic, social
condition
• feature of adaptation options
• Cos-benefit analysis
• main-streaming
• Environmental aspect
• legal aspect
• Policy aspect
4. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation
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Sergio Margulis et al.(2008)
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5. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment
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6. Summary of Assessment methods
Lead Authors(1998) Adaptation to Climate Change: Theory and Assessment” 21p.
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1) Ensuring reduction in societal and ecological vulnerability:
One of the key aims of climate adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of
human and natural systems to the effects of climate variability and
change.(or, in other words, the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ climate change)
2) Learning and adaptive management:
Climate adaptation is fundamentally a process of social learning.
3) Need for accountability in an evidence-based policy environment:
From a governance perspective, investments in adaptation and the
outcomes they achieve must be transparent.
7. Role of adaptation evaluation
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8. Progress on Adaptation
Fréedéeric Gagnon-Lebrun and Shardul Agrawala(2006), "Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Deveoped Countries", OECD 17
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ICAS(2011). “International Symposium Promoting Synergies Among Adaptation Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region”.
10. Multi-criteria Analysis for Adaptation Option
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• 11. Selection criteria for adaptation options (Klein et al. 1997)
• # of countries, or population affected by climate change impacts
• probability of climate change risk
• Irreversible higher cost impacts
• Tendency on mal-adaptation
• Long-term projects like infrastructure
- Urgency - No-regret characteristics of options - Co-benefits of other sectors and domains - Mitigation effect
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Previous studies Recommendation from other institutions,
organizations Expert survey
Ⅳ. Identifying evaluation criteria
1. Selection of evaluation criteria
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Experts: adaptation scientist ( ), Policy analysits ( ), policy makers ( )
Evaluation criteria, concepts, assessment methodology, etc.
Selection among criteria
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2. Evaluation criteria
Evaluation criteria concept
대분류 지표
Climate change risk
Climate change risks Climate change risks (Probability)
Climate change impacts # of people, area affected by climate change
Timing Timing of climate change impacts occur
Intensity of climate change # of mortality, morbidity, damage cost ($)
Policy
Equity Consideration of vulnerable group
Democracy Consensus on stakeholders’ opinion
main-streaming - Identification of ways in adaptation can be institutionalized or
embedded into existing or new policies and plans
Effectiveness
Economic efficiency Cost, effectiveness, benefits
Co-benefits Exploitation of synergies
Propagating effect Communication and outreach
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2. Evaluation criteria
Evaluation criteria Analysis methodology
대분류 지표
Climate change risk
Climate change risks Quantitative analysis:
Vulnerability analysis
Climate change impact assessment
Climate change impacts
Timing
Intensity of climate change
Policy
Equity
Qualitative analysis:
Multi criteria analysis, AHP, BAP
Democracy
main-streaming
Effectiveness
Economic efficiency Quantitative analysis: cost benefit analysis
Co-benefits Quantitative analysis
Propagating effect Qualitative analysis
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6. Prioritization of climate change adaptation measures
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Assessment of adaptation measures
Quantitative assessment
Qualitative assessment
Policy Climate change risks
• Timing • Risks (probability) • Intensity
• Economic efficiency • Co-benefits (win-win measures) • Propagation effects
• Equity • Democracy • main streaming
Effectiveness
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7. Assessment steps
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1st Step (Screening)
2nd Step
3rd Step
∙ No regret :measures with no cost ∙ Existing measures ∙ Non-reversible impacts
Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment
Multi-criteria analysis
Effectiveness Policy
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8. Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment
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1단계 2단계
Intensity
Risk
(probability)
Priority
2011
중기 장기
Timing
Priority Near future
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Expert survey on evaluation criteria, relative weight, assessment scale
Pre-test on adaptation plan To build a prioritizing framework for sectoral
adaptation options
Ⅴ. Further steps
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THANK YOU!
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