Keyassociados ___________________________________________

National Development Banks & Financing Adaptation Investments Assumptions for prioritize Adaptation Investments

15/10/2015

Content

The role for National Development Banks in climate

change

How to prioritize investments in order to promote

adaptation

Adaptation options for agriculture sector

Tool to track climate vulnerability on the

agriculture at the Minas Gerais State (Brazil)

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The role for National Development

Banks in climate change 1

IPCC 5th Assessment Report : Even if the GHG emissions

falls to zero, the global temperatures would continue to raise for centuries

Adaptation Measures: necessary to face the impacts from climate variability and global warming

Mitigation Measures: in order to limit the global warming in acceptable levels

Economic Development is a central element on mitigation and adaptation strategies

Stimulate the economic diversification

Increase the risks management capacity

Increase resilience and promote adaptation

How to prioritize investments in order

to promote adaptation? 2

Step 1 – knowing the local vulnerabilities

Step 2 – Impacts to local economy

Step 3 – Prioritize efforts

Step 4 – Decision making - cost-effectiveness of the investment

How to prioritize investments in order

to promote adaptation? 2

Step 1 – knowing the local vulnerabilities

Select the geographic region and timeframe

Select a global warming scenario

Look at the historical climate variability and disasters

Establish a vulnerability scenarios (specific risks the region

is exposed to in terms of impact and likehood)

Available tools:

Available tools:

How to prioritize investments in order

to promote adaptation? 2

Step 2 – Impacts to local economy

Identify the economy sectors more affected by the vulnerability

scenarios

Identify the regions that will be more affected by the

vulnerability scenarios

Assess the potential impact for the economy sectors in each

region in terms of contribution to GDP

How to prioritize investments in order

to promote adaptation? 2

Step 3 – Prioritize efforts

A. Define key sectors and regions in terms of impact

B. Define key sectors and regions

Identify the adaptation options (measures/investments) to face

vulnerability scenarios in priority sectors and regions

Available tools:

How to prioritize investments in order

to promote adaptation? 2

Step 4 – Decision making - cost-effectiveness of the investment:

Scope(territorial and population)

Replicability

Continuity

Breadth of resilience

Available tools:

Adaptation options for agriculture

sector

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Source: FAO, 2007

Adaptation options for agriculture

sector

3

Source: FAO, 2007

Responses to climate variability

reduction of food security risk;

identifying present vulnerabilities;

adjusting agricultural research

priorities;

protecting genetic resources and

intellectual property rights;

strengthening agricultural extension

and communication systems;

adjustment in commodity and trade

policy;

increased training and education;

identification and promotion of (micro-

) climatic benefits and environmental

services of trees and forests.

Adaptation options

seasonal changes and sowing dates;

different variety or species;

water supply and irrigation system;

other inputs (fertilizer, tillage

methods, grain drying, other field

operations);

new crop varieties;

forest fire management, promotion of

agroforestry, adaptive management with

suitable species and silvicultural

practices.

Climate risk and combating poverty

• 75% of the world's poor live in rural areas;

• Promote growth in agriculture is, at least, twice as

effective in reducing poverty than promote growth

outside agriculture;

• The lack of government support and the absence

of agricultural risk management in developing

countries affect the fight against poverty;

• The use of tools that can predict climate issues and

their impacts on agriculture can help the

elaboration of public policies and can help the

creation of financial instruments to ensure income in

rural areas.

Systemic analysis of climate risk

CropNet Risk Model

The CropNet risk model allows us to evaluate the risk of production of a given region, considering factors such as climatic suitability, soil type, production losses by attack of pests and diseases, fertility management among other factors that are critical to the production process.

Evaluating the determinants of productivity

The model assesses the regional and individual risk analyzing not only the weather, but the factors that influence in determining productivity. From this analysis, it can assess which factors can increase productivity in a given climatic condition.

Monitoring the climate agricultural risk

Thank you! _____________________________

Marco Antonio Fujihara - Director mfujihara@keyassociados.com.br T: +55 11 4890-4111