how to not suck at making good decisions
TRANSCRIPT
HOW TO NOT SUCK AT MAKING GOOD DECISIONS
IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT YOU…
BIAS
mental shortcuts
1. Confirmation Bias 2. Overconfidence Bias
3. Anchoring Bias 4. Availability Bias
Let’s start with #4
4. AVAILABILITY BIAS
4. Availability Bias/Heuristic: “Overestimating the importance of info”The tendency to make decisions based on recent information and events, that were observed personally, or that were more memorable (memorable events tend to be more magnified and are likely to cause an emotional reaction).
“Our thinking is strongly influenced by what is personally most relevant, recent or dramatic.
Simply put – we remember the PAIN.”
Avoid this bias by…
routinely asking for feedback from
others before making a decision.
On to #3 …
Q: What is the length of the Mississippi river? Is it more or less than ….
… 300 miles ? … 3000 miles ?vsGroup 1: 800 miles Group 2: 2,800 miles
Correct answer: 2,320 miles
3. ANCHORING BIAS
3. Anchoring Bias: “Being over-reliant on the 1st piece of info”The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions; also known as focalism.
Avoid this bias by…
verifying facts you’re given.
Now for #2 …
2. OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS
2. Overconfidence Bias: “Being too confident in our abilities”This happens when you place too much faith in your knowledge and opinions (sometimes due to complacency). Occurs when a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgements is greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements, especially when confidence is relatively high.
“Decision makers can overestimate their own abilities to do a task. If you’re overconfident and don’t perform, you will let down your team or your company.
Interestingly, some say this is a good bias.”
Avoid this bias by…
slowing down your decision and asking for feedback from
other people in your team.
… and the most dangerous bias of them all ?
LET’S PLAY A GAME
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1. CONFIRMATION BIAS
1. Confirmation Bias: “Accepting info that only confirms your preconceptions”
The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. In other words, cherry picking information to support your claims, belief or expectations.
“This bias is often used when you’re in a debate and you need facts to support your desired outcome.
The problem comes when disconfirming evidence surprises and weakens your position.”
MADNESS!!!
“Think of the measurements as lottery tickets. Each one has a small chance of paying off in the form of a “significant” result that we can spin a story around and sell to the media. The more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win.
We didn’t know exactly what would pan out — the headline could have been that chocolate improves sleep or lowers blood pressure — but we knew our chances of getting at least one “statistically significant” result were pretty good.”
The immediately preceding statement is false and was told to mislead. (Urban Dictionary)
John Bohannon, Science Journalist.(Originator of prank study)
Avoid this bias by…
applying professional
scepticism to your decisions.
Avoid this bias by…
considering the opposite or
explaining why your initial assessment
could be incorrect.
BIAS
1. Confirmation Bias 2. Overconfidence Bias
3. Anchoring Bias 4. Availability Bias
HOW TO NOT SUCK AT MAKING GOOD DECISIONS
LESS
THANK YOU