how to do effects based operations
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How to DoEffects Based Operations
Doug WebsterWith the permission ofDr. Guy Duczynski
Overview – An Applied Process ByDr. Guy Duczynski
DOTMLPF
D5D4D3D2D1
Effects MeansScenarios CapabilitiesEnd States
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
134
135
154
159
145
122
150
156
144
149
160
168
111177
186
171
181
117
173
119
127
66
78
73
6361
91157
97
101
58
76
74
20
62
64
65
45182
185
184
24
21
5
1
225
338
2736
35
43
42
99
178
142
165102
104
158
169
44
59
Scenario 1 -“Below Par”
Scenario 2 -“Golden Triangle”
Scenario 3 -“Asian Homeland”
Scenario 4 -“Boom and Bust”
Favorable
Unfavorable
Driver/Conditions Table
Drivers&
Conditions
Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Faustian Tree
The Many Definitions of EBO The application of military and other capabilities to realize specific,
desired operational and strategic outcomes in peace and war. In an Effects Based Operation, planning focuses on the effects that are trying to be achieved, which allows capabilities focused planning and gives operations more flexibly.
The planning and conduct of operations in such a way as to achieve a desired effect on the target.
A process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or ‘effect’ on the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range of military and non–military capabilities at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.
Operations conceived and planned in a systems framework that considers the full range of direct, indirect, and cascading effects which may – with different degrees of probability – be achieved by the application of military, diplomatic, psychological, and economic instruments.
The basic premise of effects–based operations [is] focusing on the conditions desired – the effects – to achieve assigned objectives.
My Working Definition of EBO
Coordinated, integrated, and synchronized sets of tactical, operational, and strategic (including grand strategic) political, economic, & military kinetic and non kinetic events directed at incrementally shaping the behavior of individuals and groups of adversaries, friends, and neutrals to achieve a desired outcome or end state across the spectrum of engagement (peace, crisis, & war).
Applied reflexive theory?
My EBO Related Working Definitions Driver – key influencing political, economic, or military factor that shapes area of
interest. Condition – description of a pronounced driver characteristic; a driver usually has
two or more from least to most favorable. End State – statement that describes the set of desired conditions, with no
consideration given as to how those conditions will be accomplished, necessary to achieve the strategic mission.
Scenario – description of cause and effect events. Scenarios can be linked to provide pathways from the present into the future and express a wide range of driver and condition interactions.
Effect – a perceived situation or event that can force movement of a driver condition from being less to more favorable.
Means – all the possible actions that could be undertaken which would make a contribution to delivering an effect.
Capability – one or more abilities, capacities, and/or competencies that makes a means possible.
DOTMLPF – doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership, personnel, and facilities resources.
What is EBO Cause and Effect Analysis
What is EBO (Cont’d)
Not new. For example, evidence of this approach can be found in President Kennedy's handling of the Cuban missile crisis, wherein he was cautious of the 1st, 2nd and nth order effects of the various courses of action proposed.
Do nothing
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2 4 1 2 2 5 4
2 2 2 4 3 5 4
8 8 8 0 2 2 0
8 8 8 2 2 2 0
4 6 8 8 10 8 6
70
15
20
22
28
30
50
TotalMeans
End-states
What is EBO (Cont’d)
Originated within the military, primarily the United States, and represents an attempt; through cause and effect analysis, to isolate the specific chain of events that must occur through various political, economic, and military actions for desired behavioral and systemic outcomes to happen.
The principal point of departure from an objectives (strategy to task) based approach is the emphasis on establishing a specific definition of the desired outcome or end-state “up front” and then use of an in depth process that focuses specifically on cause and effect relationships between resources (DOTMLPF), capabilities, means, effects, scenarios, end states, and drivers that are necessary for the desired outcome to happen. This approach to the initial examination of the problem space reveals a combination of military and non-military courses of action that, in combination with the traditional objectives based “follow on” process, represents a more optimal use of national power.
An approach to planning and operations that:
– Forces decision-makers to declare what the desired end-state looks like before development of specific objectives based strategic, operational, and tactical plans begins
– Links drivers, scenarios, end-states, effects, means, capabilities, and resources (DOTMLPF) into a single interrelationships oriented representation
– Is a complementary precursor to objectives based planning and operations
Process – By the Numbers
1 - Form an initial view of the future– descriptive visualization of the structure and general content of the entire set of
plausible future alternatives 2 - Construct a symbolic language
– brainstorm drivers – key influencing political, economic, and military factors that shape area of interest
– brainstorm conditions - bracket each of the drivers from the least to most favorable that it could conceivably be
– drivers and conditions - completed list of drivers and their corresponding conditions
– driver acronym - a “word” that is pronounceable and contains a letter from each of the drivers that “keys” to the meaning of the driver
3 – Drivers and conditions internal consistency determination– pairwise comparison to determine/identify illogical pairs of drivers and conditions– application of a rules based clustering algorithm to determine the fewest possible
number of driver and condition configurations for all drivers and pairs of conditions that have survived the pairwise comparison
4 – Develop scenarios (construct the field anomaly relaxation faustian tree)– string surviving driver and condition configurations in sequence to form scenario
outlines
Process – By the Numbers (Cont’d)
5 – Define end states
– Drivers and conditions are used to describe all plausible configurations (scenarios) within the area of interest and provide the raw material for describing the end-states.
6 – Create and link effects statements to scenarios
– Each end state is examined, along with the scenario that it was derived from, to determine what effects need to be imposed. The aim is to locate those effects that can force movement of a condition from an unfavorable to a favorable.
7 – Means development
– All the possible actions that need to be undertaken that could be reasonably expected to make a contribution towards delivering the stated effect.
8 – Capabilities
– Required abilities, capacities, and competencies necessary to make the corresponding means possible.
Process – By the Numbers (Cont’d)
9 – Rating overarching dimensions of concern
– Once all the links have been determined, ratings can be assigned against the effects-means pairs, which can number several hundred. These then become mission statements.
– There is no limit to the number or type of rating dimensions that can be assigned, previous projects with a national security context have used:
Political exposure Totality of effect Immediacy of effect Capability to undertake
Process – By the Numbers (Cont’d)
10 – Reports (charts) interpretation– Relationships that exist across the columns of the model for patterns illustrating the
criticality of relationships.– Effects-means pairs ratings across overarching dimensions of concern. Effects are
arrayed on the vertical axis and the means are ordered horizontally, with the means with the most links to the effects at the extreme left. The colored scale bar on the right indicates the level of risk, blue at the top is minimum, red at the base is maximum.
– Behind each of the colored rectangles that spread vertically below the means of the previous report is a set of capabilities. These highlight the relationships between means and capabilities.
– Behind each of the colored rectangles in the previous report are the statements against the DOTMPLF elements and a report that indicates the number of paths that can be traced across the relationships from Effects to Capabilities and Effects to DOTMLPF.
Once all the data is entered into the process, decision makers have an extensive array of information that spans the grand strategic, strategic, operational, tactical capability development domains. A comprehensive series of purpose designed reports draw into sharp focus the strengths and weaknesses in various elements of national power and ensure that effects are anchored securely to the scenarios and end states that demand their ability to achieve.
Process – By the Pictures
Drivers & Conditions
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D4
D1
D3
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C1
C2
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C6
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C1
C2
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C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
Drivers & Conditions are defined and developed and then“reduced” through comparison and cluster analysis
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
End-statesDrivers &
Conditions
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
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C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
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C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
End states that express possible futures for these ingredients are then crafted .
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
ScenariosEnd-states
D5
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D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
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C1
C2
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C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
C2
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C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
Scenarios give a vivid account of a situation, including the actors, locations, political, military, social, and economic ingredients.
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Drivers &Conditions
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
EffectsScenariosEnd-state
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
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C4
C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
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C4
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C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
A range of effects are then developed and appropriately linked to their corresponding scenario relative to the appropriate end state.
Drivers &Conditions
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
Effects MeansScenariosEnd-states
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
Drivers &Conditions
One or more means are identified that make it possible or enable the achievement of each effect.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
Capabilities Effects MeansScenariosEnd-states
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
Drivers &Conditions
Each means is made possible by one or more abilities, capacities, and/or competencies.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
DOTMLPFCapabilities Effects MeansScenariosEnd-states
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
Drivers &Conditions
Each ability, capacity, and/or competency is expressed as a unique configuration using the DOTMLPF framework.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
DOTMLPFEffects MeansScenarios CapabilitiesEnd States
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
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C1
C2C3
C1
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Drivers&
Conditions
The reality is that there are multiple possible and probable drivers and conditions, end states, scenarios, effects, means, capabilities, and DOTMLPF cause and effect links associated with every threat (several and collective) to national security. Moreover, uncertainty with respect to unintended consequences and unexpected outcomes is a dominant part of the complex adaptive system of systems environment.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
Each of the lines that link the effects with the means can now be rated on a number of dimensions, for example: Political Exposure, Totality of Effect, Immediacy of Effect, and Capability to Undertake as a means of rating the dimensions of impact represented by each potential course of action.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)Exposing the Pairs to Ratings
Effects MeansScenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)Finding the Dominant Elements
Effects MeansScenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF
This report displays the number of paths that can be traced from a single capability to a single effect. It highlights the means that make the most contribution.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
This report displays the number of paths that can be traced from a single DOTMLPF element to a single Effect. It highlights the dominant elements.
Finding the Dominant Elements (Cont’d)Effects MeansScenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
The Means with the highest number of linked Effects has been positioned at the top.
Graphed (Means-Capabilities) ReportCapabilitiesMeans
The Capabilities that enable the means
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
Having selected effects that are appropriate for the problem, planners are now able to project a line through all of the linked pairs accommodating overarching concerns or risks for decision-makers.
Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d)
Political risk
Cost
Sustainability
Totality
Immediacy
Ability
A Search for alternatives to build amulti-dimensional picture of‘fitness for purpose’ that reveals the best combination of paired effects-meansacross multiple criteria.
Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Complete UNCLAS deliverable available on request.)
The same Factors and Conditions array can be used to describea nation.
Factors and Conditions Array for North Korea
North Korea - Plausible Configurations
Representative of the ‘prevailing’ conditions within North Korea.The ‘best’ set of conditions
Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
? ? ? ??
?
End-StatesWhat do the President of the United States and Secretary of Defense want the situation to be when operations conclude – both military operations as well as those where the military is in support of other instruments of national power?What might an Iraq Factors-Conditions array look like?
Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
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Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
Present
Most DesirableLeast Desirable
More of the Same
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This application of EBO is characterized by:Societal latitudes broadeningUnification condition changing fromadversarial to cooperativePolitical orientation moderatingRelations with neighbors improvingEconomic performance liftingMilitary fixation diminishing
Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
This approach just might have some merit:
“UNDERSTANDING THE NORTH KOREAN SYSTEM”
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the world’s most self-referential political system.
The North continues to adhere to a national mythology reinforced by a dynastic succession from father (Kim Il Sung) to son (Kim Jong Il).
It is the world’s sole surviving Stalinist state, with an undiminished cult of personality surrounding Kim Jong Il.
North Korea is also the world’s most militarized regime. North Korea is also a society experiencing acute internal privation. The North’s dysfunctional economic policies led to a horrific
famine and humanitarian crisis during the mid-1990s.
From: Pollock, J. (2003) The United States, North Korea and the End of the Agreed Framework, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003, p. 15-16
Summary
DOTMLPF
D5D4D3D2D1
Effects MeansScenarios CapabilitiesEnd States
D5
D4
D1
D3
D2
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2
C4
C6
C3
C5
C1
C2C3
C1
C2
C4
C3
C1
C2
C4 C3
C5
134
135
154
159
145
122
150
156
144
149
160
168
111177
186
171
181
117
173
119
127
66
78
73
6361
91157
97
101
58
76
74
20
62
64
65
45182
185
184
24
21
5
1
225
338
2736
35
43
42
99
178
142
165102
104
158
169
44
59
Scenario 1 -“Below Par”
Scenario 2 -“Golden Triangle”
Scenario 3 -“Asian Homeland”
Scenario 4 -“Boom and Bust”
Favorable
Unfavorable
Driver/Conditions Table
Drivers&
Conditions
Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Faustian Tree
Some Process Improvement Challenges
Cause and effect analysis “tool” characteristics– Multiple inputs– Multiple outputs– Probabilistic– Feedback loops– Graphic Evaluation Review Technique (GERT) – Pritsker
Translating output reports to objectives based (strategy to task) inputs
Connecting it all together– Joint Operational Planning and Execution System (JOPES)
Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) Mission Analysis (MA) Course of Action (COA) development and analysis
Tabs to Appendix 3 to Annex C WARNORDS, ALERTORDS, OPORDS, EXORDS