Saylor Academy Summit:

How Open Education Can Cross the

Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally6/22/17, Washington DC

Dr. Andrew Sears

President, City Vision University

www.cityvision.edu

andrew@cityvision.edu

https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears

This talk is on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/5kXF4hcoLH0

Slideshare at: https://goo.gl/jajAk2

Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg

Technology Adoption Life Cycle and Crossing the Chasm

Crossing the Chasm Case Study: Voice/Video over IP (VoIP)

MIT’s

Internet Telephony ConsortiumNetspeak, Natural Microsystems,

HP, Lucent, Mediatrix, Nokia,

Sprint, Telecom Italia, Telenor, Telia

Continental Cable

Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg

Case Study: Digital Divide, Community & Nonprofit Technology

Public Libraries

Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg

The Opportunity: 1 Billion Students by 2030

Campus5-10 million

Bachelor’s5-20 million

Alternative Credit100’s of millions

Free Courseware1 billion

• College Years 1-3

• Average Global Cost: $100/year

• Building on courseware

• Microcampus, online and mobile delivery

• More than 50% global market share of tertiary

education will be alternative education by 2030

• Free: MOOCs, OER, Apps

• Average Global Cost: $1,000/year

• Full range of university degrees

• Online or microcampus delivery

• Transformational campus community

• Average Global Cost: $2,000/year

• Primary growth will be microcampuses

• Critical for early majority & developing countries

Global Digital Ecosystem (5-7 Billion)

Target Market

84% of HE growth in developing countries

4.9 billion middle class by 2030

263 million students in HE by 2025

Disruptive Innovation in Post-Secondary Education

• Corporate Education

• Disruptive Megauniversities

• OER in Community Colleges

• Early College High School

• Government aid access to alternative providers

• Homeschool & uncollege

• Autodidacts

• Noncredit personal enrichment

• Cost-conscious innovators

• Developing Countries

• Education as a Feature of Tech Platforms (Google)

• Digital first, mass market microcampus outlets

Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg

Early Adopters (innovators)

Technology focused

Proponents of revolutionary

change

Visionary Users

Project Oriented

Willing to take risks

Willing to experiment

Individually self-sufficient

Tend to communicate horizontally

(focused across disciplines)

Early Majority (pragmatists)

Not technically focused

Proponents of evolutionary

change

Pragmatic Users

Process Oriented

Averse to taking risks

Looking for proven applications

May require support

Tend to communicate vertically

(focused within a discipline)

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/281060763_tbl1_Table-1-Characteristics-of-Early-Adopters-and-Early-Majority-Geoghegan-1994

Complete Product Components to Cross the Chasm

OER & Coursewar

e

Highly Usable Interface

Contextualized Curation &

InstructionalDesign

Tech Support, Coaching & Advising &

Faculty Support

Need Stackable

Credit Portability

Recognized Credential

Physical Outlets for Blended

Learning if Desired

• Need high usability and mobile interface (Open edX, MOOCs & Canvas)

• Need separate products for B2C (simple) and B2B (flexible)

• B2B: Need white label platform for partners (open alternative to OPM platforms)

• B2C: More usable curation in open courseware

• Need courseware targeting average & remedial students

• Need YouTube of courses

• B2B: Need streamlined access to course exports

• B2B: Need Git and GitHub of courses

• Need Alternative Quality Assurance (ACE, CLEP, NCCRSAP, CQAL, Ofqual)

• Need high quality, affordable/free assessments as alternative to CLEP, AP, etc.

• Need tighter linkages with traditional institutions (like Straighterline)

• Need stackable, integrated end-to end pathways to degrees (Microdegrees)

• Need alignment of college courses with high school standards for early college

• B2C: Need free and for fee options (verified)

• B2B: Need “Uber” for coaching and instruction

• Focus outcomes on completions, not

registrations

• Need simple pathway bundles emphasized

over individual courses

• Need to target learning outcome

bundles for jobs in specific vertical

industries (like Udacity and CS)

• Need partnerships with recognized brands

and universities

• B2B: Need ability to integrate with backoffice

systems of strategic partners

• Need open nonprofit alternative to OPMs (system integrators)

• Need support programs for micro-colleges, nonprofit

partners and & study centers

• Need franchise mechanisms or physical outlets

• Need partnerships for practicum,

apprenticeships & psychomotor learning

Strategy to Cross the Chasm

Target an initial niche market to develop a high quality, more

complete solution (i.e. Udacity)

Assess which components to do in house and which to do through

partnerships

Be willing to have both commercial and nonprofit partners

Intentionally work with select customers in your niche that require

whole solution to advance learning curve on whole product

Pure OER vs. Freemium Business Models

Free Courses, Course

Exports & AssessmentsFree Courses

(no exports)

Certified Courses

with assessments

Unbundled OER

Learning Objects

Bundled LMS

Integrated Credit

Pathways &

Microdegrees

Courses for Credit

Credit Pathways(not integrated)

Integrated

Accredited Degree

Bundles

Accredited Degree

Bundles (not

integrated)

Pure OER• Examples: Saylor, MIT Open Courseware, OLI

Freemium• Examples: MOOCs, DuoLingo, Most Apps, ASU GFA

Financial

Subsidy

Pragmatists

Early Adopters

Innovators

The

ChasmCommunication & Integration Barrier

Student

Pipeline

• Pros: leverages near zero marginal cost of content, better for B2B

• Cons: communication barriers and no incentive to cross the chasm

• Selling Point: Free, open near zero marginal cost content that

crosses the chasm can be revolutionary (Wikipedia, Khan Academy)

• Recommendations: OER needs to be donor based but with either

tight pragmatist partnerships or with secondary earned income stream

Integrated design of lower levels with input from upper level partners.

• Pros: Strong communication & integration to cross chasm, better for B2C

• Cons: Funding model limit incentive to share content

• Selling Point: Currently probably has 10-100 times the volume of

pragmatist completions compared to OER Model

• Recommendations: Seek donors that understand value of opening

content to enable more open sharing by covering loss of revenue

Unbundled LMS

Bundled Learning

Objects

Strategy Ideas: Saylor Academy

Split B2B and B2C products to learn from B2C market◦ B2B remains in Moodle. Provide a self-serve download access to course exports.

◦ B2C is more curated & moves to Open edX (Secondarily: iTunes U, Alison.com & Udemy)

Develop product line and partnerships that provide support ◦ Primary organizational outcome needs to be course completions not registrations (vanity

metric)

◦ Seek coaching/tutoring partners (possibly can also do proctoring)

◦ Be more willing to secure earned income and to partner with commercial partners (avoid

OER dogmatism)

Potential first niches to cross the chasm◦ Corporate (Jetblue), Community Colleges, TESC/COSC/Excelsior, WGU, Early College

◦ Pragmatist requirements for quality levels and whole product components that Saylor does

not yet have will be essential to learn to cross the chasm

Use fast follower strategy on Straighterline, OpenStax, Flat World, Lumen

Learning◦ Straighterline: Partner with online tutors & replicate their articulation agreements

◦ Learn from OpenStax/Lumen on usability, simplified curation and partnering

Outline of Free MOOC in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education

1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education

2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education

3. Economics of Traditional Online Education

4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms

5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education

6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty

7. Lean Startup for Education

8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis

9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education

10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation

Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & SlideshareContact: andrew@cityvision.edu

Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance (www.cheia.org)