Saylor Academy Summit:
How Open Education Can Cross the
Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally6/22/17, Washington DC
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
This talk is on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/5kXF4hcoLH0
Slideshare at: https://goo.gl/jajAk2
Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
Technology Adoption Life Cycle and Crossing the Chasm
Crossing the Chasm Case Study: Voice/Video over IP (VoIP)
MIT’s
Internet Telephony ConsortiumNetspeak, Natural Microsystems,
HP, Lucent, Mediatrix, Nokia,
Sprint, Telecom Italia, Telenor, Telia
Continental Cable
Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
Case Study: Digital Divide, Community & Nonprofit Technology
Public Libraries
Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
The Opportunity: 1 Billion Students by 2030
Campus5-10 million
Bachelor’s5-20 million
Alternative Credit100’s of millions
Free Courseware1 billion
• College Years 1-3
• Average Global Cost: $100/year
• Building on courseware
• Microcampus, online and mobile delivery
• More than 50% global market share of tertiary
education will be alternative education by 2030
• Free: MOOCs, OER, Apps
• Average Global Cost: $1,000/year
• Full range of university degrees
• Online or microcampus delivery
• Transformational campus community
• Average Global Cost: $2,000/year
• Primary growth will be microcampuses
• Critical for early majority & developing countries
Global Digital Ecosystem (5-7 Billion)
Target Market
84% of HE growth in developing countries
4.9 billion middle class by 2030
263 million students in HE by 2025
Disruptive Innovation in Post-Secondary Education
• Corporate Education
• Disruptive Megauniversities
• OER in Community Colleges
• Early College High School
• Government aid access to alternative providers
• Homeschool & uncollege
• Autodidacts
• Noncredit personal enrichment
• Cost-conscious innovators
• Developing Countries
• Education as a Feature of Tech Platforms (Google)
• Digital first, mass market microcampus outlets
Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
Early Adopters (innovators)
Technology focused
Proponents of revolutionary
change
Visionary Users
Project Oriented
Willing to take risks
Willing to experiment
Individually self-sufficient
Tend to communicate horizontally
(focused across disciplines)
Early Majority (pragmatists)
Not technically focused
Proponents of evolutionary
change
Pragmatic Users
Process Oriented
Averse to taking risks
Looking for proven applications
May require support
Tend to communicate vertically
(focused within a discipline)
Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/281060763_tbl1_Table-1-Characteristics-of-Early-Adopters-and-Early-Majority-Geoghegan-1994
Complete Product Components to Cross the Chasm
OER & Coursewar
e
Highly Usable Interface
Contextualized Curation &
InstructionalDesign
Tech Support, Coaching & Advising &
Faculty Support
Need Stackable
Credit Portability
Recognized Credential
Physical Outlets for Blended
Learning if Desired
• Need high usability and mobile interface (Open edX, MOOCs & Canvas)
• Need separate products for B2C (simple) and B2B (flexible)
• B2B: Need white label platform for partners (open alternative to OPM platforms)
• B2C: More usable curation in open courseware
• Need courseware targeting average & remedial students
• Need YouTube of courses
• B2B: Need streamlined access to course exports
• B2B: Need Git and GitHub of courses
• Need Alternative Quality Assurance (ACE, CLEP, NCCRSAP, CQAL, Ofqual)
• Need high quality, affordable/free assessments as alternative to CLEP, AP, etc.
• Need tighter linkages with traditional institutions (like Straighterline)
• Need stackable, integrated end-to end pathways to degrees (Microdegrees)
• Need alignment of college courses with high school standards for early college
• B2C: Need free and for fee options (verified)
• B2B: Need “Uber” for coaching and instruction
• Focus outcomes on completions, not
registrations
• Need simple pathway bundles emphasized
over individual courses
• Need to target learning outcome
bundles for jobs in specific vertical
industries (like Udacity and CS)
• Need partnerships with recognized brands
and universities
• B2B: Need ability to integrate with backoffice
systems of strategic partners
• Need open nonprofit alternative to OPMs (system integrators)
• Need support programs for micro-colleges, nonprofit
partners and & study centers
• Need franchise mechanisms or physical outlets
• Need partnerships for practicum,
apprenticeships & psychomotor learning
Strategy to Cross the Chasm
Target an initial niche market to develop a high quality, more
complete solution (i.e. Udacity)
Assess which components to do in house and which to do through
partnerships
Be willing to have both commercial and nonprofit partners
Intentionally work with select customers in your niche that require
whole solution to advance learning curve on whole product
Pure OER vs. Freemium Business Models
Free Courses, Course
Exports & AssessmentsFree Courses
(no exports)
Certified Courses
with assessments
Unbundled OER
Learning Objects
Bundled LMS
Integrated Credit
Pathways &
Microdegrees
Courses for Credit
Credit Pathways(not integrated)
Integrated
Accredited Degree
Bundles
Accredited Degree
Bundles (not
integrated)
Pure OER• Examples: Saylor, MIT Open Courseware, OLI
Freemium• Examples: MOOCs, DuoLingo, Most Apps, ASU GFA
Financial
Subsidy
Pragmatists
Early Adopters
Innovators
The
ChasmCommunication & Integration Barrier
Student
Pipeline
• Pros: leverages near zero marginal cost of content, better for B2B
• Cons: communication barriers and no incentive to cross the chasm
• Selling Point: Free, open near zero marginal cost content that
crosses the chasm can be revolutionary (Wikipedia, Khan Academy)
• Recommendations: OER needs to be donor based but with either
tight pragmatist partnerships or with secondary earned income stream
Integrated design of lower levels with input from upper level partners.
• Pros: Strong communication & integration to cross chasm, better for B2C
• Cons: Funding model limit incentive to share content
• Selling Point: Currently probably has 10-100 times the volume of
pragmatist completions compared to OER Model
• Recommendations: Seek donors that understand value of opening
content to enable more open sharing by covering loss of revenue
Unbundled LMS
Bundled Learning
Objects
Strategy Ideas: Saylor Academy
Split B2B and B2C products to learn from B2C market◦ B2B remains in Moodle. Provide a self-serve download access to course exports.
◦ B2C is more curated & moves to Open edX (Secondarily: iTunes U, Alison.com & Udemy)
Develop product line and partnerships that provide support ◦ Primary organizational outcome needs to be course completions not registrations (vanity
metric)
◦ Seek coaching/tutoring partners (possibly can also do proctoring)
◦ Be more willing to secure earned income and to partner with commercial partners (avoid
OER dogmatism)
Potential first niches to cross the chasm◦ Corporate (Jetblue), Community Colleges, TESC/COSC/Excelsior, WGU, Early College
◦ Pragmatist requirements for quality levels and whole product components that Saylor does
not yet have will be essential to learn to cross the chasm
Use fast follower strategy on Straighterline, OpenStax, Flat World, Lumen
Learning◦ Straighterline: Partner with online tutors & replicate their articulation agreements
◦ Learn from OpenStax/Lumen on usability, simplified curation and partnering
Outline of Free MOOC in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education
2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education
3. Economics of Traditional Online Education
4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms
5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education
6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty
7. Lean Startup for Education
8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis
9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education
10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & SlideshareContact: [email protected]
Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance (www.cheia.org)