How New Technologies

and Autonomous

Vehicles May Impact

Transportation

TBRPC Steven E. Polzin, PhD.

Monday, February 8, 2016

The Automated Vehicle InstituteTM @ CUTR

The Center for Urban Transportation

Research has established The Automated

Vehicle InstituteTM @ CUTR to assist

communities, businesses, and government

in navigating complex policy and planning

issues that will accompany the evolution of

connected and automated vehicles

We are in Perhaps the Most Transformational Period in

Transportation Since the Development of Personal

Vehicles

Demographics

Technology

Economics

Governance

Culture/values

4

Cop pulls over Google self-driving car - going 24 in 35 mph zone CNN November 13, 2015

The Public is Being Bombarded with Stories on Autonomous Vehicles

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The Business World Is Being Rocked by Technology Deployed for Transportation

Transportation as a Service Envisioned as Massive Global Market Opportunity

Uber Google Apple

Ford Chrysler GM

GM is Investing $500 Million in Lyft to Develop Self-Driving Cars January 2016

Toyota Chief Shifts to Self-Drive: Akio Toyoda, once a skeptic, steers automaker into autonomous vehicle race. WSJ, January 2016

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How Disruptive?

What Will Happen to Public Transit in a World Full of Autonomous Cars? From the Atlantic, CITYLAB

January 2014 http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/01/what-will-happen-public-transit-world-full-autonomous-cars/8131/

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Environmental

Considerations

Transportation

Safety

Transportation

System Capacity

Economic and

Employment

Impact

Unintended

Consequences

Impact on travel

demand by

mode

Consequences

Travel Behavior

Personal

Mobility

Transportation

Infrastructure Land Use

Transportation

Stakeholders

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Factors that Influence Travel Behavior

Money

Cost

Reliability

Household

Travel Comfort

Safety

Time Cost

Convenience

Flexibility

Image Environmental,

Social Impact

- Real time information

- Electronic payment

- Trip planning

- Trip scheduling

- Navigation/trip tracking

- Electronic hailing

- Trip aggregating -----/ride matching

- Dynamic pricing

- Electronic satisfaction ----feedback

- Automated driving

Technology Enables:

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Factors that Influence Travel Behavior

Money

Cost

Reliability

Household

Travel Comfort

Safety

Time Cost

Convenience

Flexibility

Image Environmental,

Social Impact

Traditional Travel Decision Making (4-Step Process)

1. Number of Trips Made (trip generation vs. communication)

2. Destination Choice (trip distribution impacted by better knowledge of choices)

3. Mode Choice

Drive personal traditional car Ride in my automated car Hail automated car Ride with family/friend Taxi Ridesourcing, e-hailing,

Uber, Lyft, Sidecar Ridesharing - Carma, eRideShare Carsharing Personal bike Bikesharing Transit Transit Alternatives/Feeders

“microtransit”, Bridj, Leap, MetroBee, TransLoc

Walk

4. Path Assignment (Choice assisted by real time information)

Vehicle

Ownership

Impacts of Technology is Highly Dependent on Three Key Decisions

Live/Work Location Choices

Shared

Occupancy

Mode

Choice

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Cost of Mobility Options

Auto Capital and Operating Cost (business) $0.54/mi., $0.575 in 2015

Variable Cost (moving and medical) $0.19, $0.23 in 2015

Out of Pocket (charitable, by statue) $0.14

BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey $0.44/ vmt

$0.26/ pmt

Transit Fares ~ $0.24/mi

TNC (Uber, Lyft) ~$0.65-2.00/mi (sequentially shared vehicle, not concurrently shared ride)

Automated Vehicle (shared ride) ~<$0.20-????

Auto owners “feel” $0.14 per mile costs in mode choice decision

Sou

rce:

IR

S

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Envisioned Cost Structures Imply Possible New Institutional Roles Governing/Providing Mobility

Family

Government

Employer

Community

Self

Private sector

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. Without having to own and park

a car I can afford the urban

lifestyle.

After a day at the office and a nap on the ride home I can enjoy the

great outdoors.

Land Use Impacts

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Land Use Impacts

Drive till you qualify becomes nap till you qualify? More house and less garage?

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Do Travelers Want to Share a Ride?

The Demise of Carpooling? 6

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75

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12

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9.7

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Co

mm

uti

ng

Mar

ket

Shar

e

DRIVE ALONE

CARPOOL

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Impact on VMT Scenarios

Today

Low occupancy and lots of deadhead miles

Lots of shared use offsetting deadhead miles

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1. Strive to understand/monitor the impact of technology on travel behavior

2. Leverage the emerging modes/services to complement transit

3. Leverage the emerging technologies within transit operations

4. Be at the table in preparing for and adapting to new technologies

5. Advocate for transit’s goals/strengths

6. Acknowledge the uncertainty and adapt long-range planning to mitigate risk

Transit’s Strategic Response?

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Planning Challenges?

None of the MPOs most likely to be planning for self-driving cars have incorporated them into their most recent RTPs. 2 Of the twenty-five largest MPOs, only Philadelphia’s Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission mentions autonomous vehicles at all. • There is a great deal of uncertainty about what technologies will prevail, how

much and when they will penetrate the market, whether regulation will hinder or support deployment, what the direct impacts will be on capacity or safety, and how consumers will respond.

• Driverless cars and their potential impacts are too far removed from decisions about whether and how to invest in and maintain transportation infrastructure.

• Vehicle automation is just one of a number of radical changes that could influence regional transportation over the next 30 years. Staff also mentioned changes in federal transportation funding, 3D printers, improvements in telecommunications, and the impacts of and policies to address climate change as potential game-changers.

“Planning for Cars That Drive Themselves: Metropolitan Planning Organizations, Regional Transportation Plans, and Autonomous Vehicles”, Erick Guerra, Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2015

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Integrating Smart Technology with Dumb Infrastructure

A Path Toward Success

Policy makers and industry professionals with input

from the public should strive to find ways for the

positive benefits of technology to be realized without

ego, greed, self interest, lust for power, or

incompetence denying the public the full benefits of

new technologies.