house energy and natural resources committee...house energy and natural resources committee january...
TRANSCRIPT
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House Energy and Natural
Resources Committee
January 10, 2019
Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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US Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Rail Destinations Market Share (Oct 2018)
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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration
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Cushing $51.06
Brent $59.99WTI + $8.93
Crude Oil Prices – January 9, 2019
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Pricing Data: Bloomberg &
CME (LLS-Argus)Houston WTIWTI + $5.28
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North Dakota Oil Pricing
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Midwest (PADD 2) Refinery Crude Oil Consumption
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EIA Data
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North Dakota Oil Pricing
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Bakken Drilling Economics
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www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Bakken Breakeven Price Range (20% IRR)
Bakken Breakeven Prices
$6 - $8 Million
Completed Wells Cost
Background Map: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community
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Bakken-Three Forks Drilling Inventory Study
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www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Cumulative Remaining Wells – Peak Month Minimum BOPD
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30-Day Initial Production (BOPD)
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Years Remaining* / Minimum Wellhead Oil Price*Assumes 1,200 Completions Per Year and $7MM Well Costs (20% After Tax IRR)
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Statewide Oil Performance
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 16Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide
~13% Improvement
Over 2017
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPDAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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NDPA North Dakota Gas Production ForecastAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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NDPA North Dakota Production Forecast SummaryAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Simple Terms
Blue – Lack of pipelines
Orange – Challenges on existing
infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold
Blue – % flared from zero sales wells
Orange – % flared from wells with at
least one mcf sold.
Oct. 2018 Data – Non-Confidential WellsStatewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Bakken and Three Forks Gas Performance
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Dunn McKenzie Mountrail Williams
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Upcoming or
Recent Plant
Expansion
WBI Transmission
Andeavor
Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure
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Northern Border Pipeline
*Data Source: Northern Border IPS
• 42” Pipeline
• Carries Canadian (Port of Morgan) and Domestic Gas
• Receives Gas From ND Plants, WBI Transmission Interconnections, and WY Pipelines (Bison & Grasslands)
• Midcontinent Deliveries
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Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND
gas production could increase 1.11-1.41 BCFD (from Oct-18) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken
production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.
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Now What?
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Regional NGL Infrastructure
Kinder
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North Dakota Captured* NGL’s
3232JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 32*Non-flared NGL’s & Assumes 10 GPM
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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options
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ONEOK Elk Creek NGL Pipeline
Project Highlights
• 900 Miles - 20” Pipeline
• $1.4 Billion
• 240,000 BPD Capacity
• Expandable to 400,000
BPD
• End of 2019 Proposed
Completion
• Y-Grade Transportation
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov
www.northdakotapipelines.com
Contact Information
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