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TRANSCRIPT
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Hotel InduSTRy Overview
Chris Klauda, CHIA
Director, Destination Research
ESTO Webinar November 12, 2015
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1. Visit www.HotelNewsNow.com 2. Create Free Login 3. Click on “Data Presentations”
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The recognized leader in hotel benchmarking Founded in 1985 Sample 72% of total U.S. room supply; 50% of total global room supply. Provide monthly, weekly, and daily STAR reports to over 46,000 hotels,
representing 6.1 million rooms worldwide Provide reports to DMOs, CVBs and any organization working in the lodging
industry Impartial, timely, confidential
About STR
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1. Industry Record Breaking Continues
2. Group and Transient Pricing Power
• What do Meeting Planners Think?
3. Highest & Lowest Growth Markets
4. Pipeline Growth
5. Where Are We Headed?
5 Things to Know …..
U.S. Pulse – Going Gangbusters 1
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OCC 65.4% ▴2.5% RECORD
Metric No. Status Remarks
ROOM REV $141B ▴8.2% RECORD
OCC ROOMS* 1.2B ▴3.4% RECORD
AVAIL ROOMS 1.8B ▴1.0% RECORD
ADR $119 ▴4.6% RECORD
REVPAR $78 ▴7.2% RECORD
U.S. Hotels TTM Sept 2015
SOURCE: STR * Demand
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Demand Growth Rates Slow. Supply Growth Now Back At 1%.
1.0
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
3.4
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 09/2015
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ADR Growth Healthy. Occ Growth Easing.
-3.4
-6.7
-9.7
2.5
6.8 7.5
4.6
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 09/2015
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ADR Growth Healthy. Demand Easing.
-0.6
-4.7
-7.1
3.4
6.8 7.5
4.6
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 09/2015
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TTM September 2015 $141 billion
U.S. hotel room revenue
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52% of U.S. rooms revenue in 2015 came from 8 states 33% from California, Florida and New York
U.S. Hotels TTM Sept 2015
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Where are we in the lodging cycle?
The Back 9
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TTM September 2015 $78
U.S. hotel RevPAR
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Expect More Of The Same: Positive (but slowing) Growth
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 2000 2010
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9.3% 8.5%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 9/2015
65 Months 61 Months 112 Months
7.2%
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Group and Transient Pricing Power
Group Transient Contract
Segmentation
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Chain Scales - examples
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Four Seasons Hilton Courtyard Comfort Suites Best Western Days Inn
Loews Hyatt DoubleTree Hampton Inn La Quinta EconoLodge
Ritz Carlton Marriott Hilton Garden Inn Holiday Inn Ramada Motel 6
W Hotel Westin Radisson Holiday Inn Express Sleep Inn Super 8
Demand Segmentation: Continued Group Rebound
2.3
2.7 2.7
1.7
Luxury Upper Upscale
Transient % Change Group % Change
*Segmentation Occupancy % Change, by Class, September 2015 TTM
ADR Segmentation: Transient and Group Increases Growth Pace
4.4 4.5
3.9 3.6
Luxury Upper Upscale
Transient % Change Group % Change
*Segmentation ADR % Change, by Class, September 2015 TTM
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Transient ADR Growth Follows High Occupancies
2.6%
4.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb-15
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 09/2015
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Group Demand Growth Slows As Hotels Are Full
1.9%
3.8%
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 09/2015
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September 2015
4.2 million
more transient rooms sold than in the prior 12 months
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September 2015
1.6 million
more group rooms sold than in the prior 12 months
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MEETING SIZE
Meetings of 1000+ attendees make up the largest major meeting segment and are on the rise.
30%
38%
32% 28%
35% 37%
Less than 300 300-999 1000+
2013 2015
OVERALL ATTENDANCE AT LARGEST MEETING PLANNED IN LAST YEAR
*DMAP 2015, a national survey of meeting planners www.str.com/products/destinationmap
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What Are Meeting Planners Saying?
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Sources that are personal or directly connected to meeting planner are the most trustworthy and valued.
83% 76%
58% 57% 56% 45%
Past experience Attendeefeedback
Hotel website Colleaguerecommendations
Hotel rating/userreview sites
Destinationwebsite
“VERY IMPORTANT” INFORMATION SOURCES
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CONSIDERATIONS RATED “VERY IMPORTANT” IN SITE SELECTION
COSTS
CONVENIENCE
CLEAN/ ATTRACTIVE
Meeting planners are demanding when selecting a meeting site
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Clean/attractive city
Attractive conference hotels
# of hotel rooms available
Convenient airline service
Easy for delegates to get to
Food and lodging costs
Travel costs to destination
Good value for the money
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CONSIDERATIONS RATED “VERY IMPORTANT” IN SITE SELECTION
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Clean/attractive city
Attractive conference hotels
# of hotel rooms available
Convenient airline service
Easy for delegates to get to
Food and lodging costs
Travel costs to destination
Good value for the money
2015
2013
COSTS
CONVENIENCE
CLEAN/ ATTRACTIVE
Meeting planners are demanding when selecting a meeting site
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3 U.S. Market Performance
162 markets
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RevPAR September 2015 YTD: Low Oil Price = Lower RevPAR
Market RevPAR %
Change Market RevPAR %
Change
Macon/Warner Robbins, GA 19.0 New York, NY (1.6)
San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 18.9 West Virginia (1.8)
Oakland, CA 16.6 Texas North (1.9)
Portland, OR 15.1 New Mexico South (2.1)
Phoenix, AZ 14.9 Houston, TX (2.4)
Chattanooga, TN-GA 14.7 Augusta, GA-SC (7.1)
Fort Myers, FL 14.5 Texas South (7.3)
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 14.3 Oklahoma Area (9.4)
Melbourne/Titusville, FL 14.1 Texas West (14.9)
California North Central 13.7 North Dakota (16.2)
*September 2015 YTD RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
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ADR September 2015 YTD: West Coast Very Strong, NYC Still Weak
Market ADR % Change Market
ADR % Change
San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 15.2 Jackson, MS 1.0
Oakland, CA 12.2 Texas North 1.0
Portland, OR 10.9 New Mexico South 0.8
Sarasota/Bradenton, FL 10.1 Bergen/Passaic, NJ 0.1
Phoenix, AZ 9.6 McAllen/Brownsville, TX
(0.1)
Nashville, TN 9.2 Oklahoma Area
(0.9)
Melbourne/Titusville, FL 9.0 New York, NY
(1.4)
Seattle, WA 9.0 North Dakota
(3.1)
Savannah, GA 8.7 Texas South
(4.3)
Wyoming 8.5 Texas West
(5.8)
* September 2015 YTD ADR : Best / Worst Performing Markets
3 U.S. Market Performance
50 markets
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September 2015 YTD: Houston and NYC Perform Poorly
Market OCC % ADR % Change
Phoenix, AZ 66.5 14.9
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 73.4 13.1
Nashville, TN 74.6 11.8
Seattle, WA 79.0 10.1
Orlando, FL 77.7 9.7
New Orleans, LA 70.4 4.8
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 70.3 3.9
Oahu Island, HI 85.2 2.6
New York, NY 84.3 -1.6
Houston, TX 70.0 -2.4
* September 2015 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
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Markets 26-50: Markets Around SF Lead
Market OCC % ADR % Change San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 79.8 15.2
Oakland, CA 81.1 12.2
Portland, OR 76.9 10.9
Richmond/Petersburg, VA 63.6 7.5
Austin, TX 75.5 7.4
Fort Worth/Arlington, TX 68.2 3.3
San Antonio, TX 67.1 3.3
Pittsburgh, PA 66.9 2.6
Oklahoma City, OK 63.9 2.2
Baltimore, MD 68.6 1.1
*September 2015 YTD ADR % Change, Markets 26-50: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
Making the Grade: Top 25 Markets Brad Garner – SVP
August, 2015
Methodology of Grades
• Data from June 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015 – 12MMA
• Calculated the relative position (rank) of supply, demand, ADR
• Applied weighted factors to each of the metrics (in each year)
• Averaged all the metrics to come up with the index
• Averaged the index for all four years
• Gave 1-3 points based on average index
• Gave 1-3 points based on RevPAR forecast for 2015 & 2016
• Totaled points to come up with grades
Top 25 markets – “A” Grade
Dallas
Denver
Los Angeles
Nashville
Orlando
San Francisco
Seattle
Tampa
Most Likely to be Famous: Nashville • Highest ADR and RevPAR growth
at 10.5% and 14.9%
• Highest group RevPAR growth at 14.3%
• Its Own TV Show (Get on Board)
*forecast is preliminary *all metrics reported are as of June 15 12MMA
Most Athletic: Phoenix
• Super Bowl XLIX & Phx. Open 2/2015
• January RevPAR up 43%
• February RevPAR up 18%
• 2nd largest RevPAR growth as of June 12MMA
• Highest forecast RevPAR growth for 2015 at 12.8%
*forecast is preliminary
Most Likely to enter Rehab: Houston
• Occ down 3.8% YTD
• RevPAR down 1.7% YTD
• 2nd lowest RevPAR forecast for 2015 at 2.5%
*forecast is preliminary
Pipeline Accelerates
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4. In Construction – Vertical construction on the physical building has begun. (This does not include construction on any sub-grade structures.) 3. Final Planning – construction will begin within the next 12 months. 2. Planning – construction will begin in more than 13 months. 1. Unconfirmed (formerly Pre-Planning) - Potential projects that remain unconfirmed at this time.
STR Pipeline Phases U
nd
er
Co
ntr
act
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US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
Phase 2015 2014 % Change
In Construction 132 110 20%
Final Planning 175 120 46%
Planning 134 164 -18%
Under Contract 441 395 12%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, September 2015 and 2014
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Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
5.9
11.9
46.2 42.9
5.0 1.8
18.6
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, September 2015
67%
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Pipeline (’000s rooms): Top 26 Markets Have ~50% Of U/C Rooms
64.5 67.7 71.1
103.9
58.8
75.3
Top 26 Markets Rest of the US
In Construction
Final Planning
Planning
*US Pipeline, Rooms (‘000s), Top 26 Markets vs. All Other Markets, September 2015
(132)
(175)
(134)
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Construction In Top 26 Markets: 11 Markets w/4%+ Of Supply
*US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, September 2015
Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing
1 New York, NY 13,107 11%
2 Houston, TX 6,639 9%
3 Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,314 7%
4 Denver, CO 2,404 6%
5 Nashville, TN 1,703 4%
6 Dallas, TX 3,427 4%
7 Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,291 4%
8 Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4,052 4%
9 Boston, MA 2,144 4%
10 Philadelphia, PA-NJ 1,846 4%
11 Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 1,548 4%
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Construction In Top 26 Markets: Eight With 2%+ Of Supply
*US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, September 2015
Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing
12 Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,588 3%
13 Seattle, WA 1,334 3%
14 San Diego, CA 1,785 3%
15 Detroit, MI 1,126 3%
16 Phoenix, AZ 1,577 3%
17 Chicago, IL 2,753 2%
18 Las Vegas, NV 3,905 2%
19 Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,012 2%
20 New Orleans, LA 792 2%
21 Atlanta, GA 1,398 1%
22 Orlando, FL 1,645 1%
23 Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 394 1%
24 St Louis, MO-IL 332 1%
25 San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 430 1%
26 Oahu Island, HI 0%
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Where Are We Headed? 5
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Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2015 - 2016
Outlook
2015 Forecast
2016 Forecast
Supply 1.2% 1.4%
Demand 2.9% 2.2%
Occupancy 1.7% 0.8%
ADR 5.1% 5.2%
RevPAR 6.8% 6.0%
*As of 8/1/15
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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2015F by Chain Scale
2015 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (% chg)
Luxury 0.4% 5.4% 5.9%
Upper Upscale 0.9% 5.0% 5.9%
Upscale 0.6% 5.4% 6.1%
Upper Midscale 1.9% 5.0% 7.0%
Midscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.5%
Economy 1.9% 5.3% 7.2%
Independent 2.0% 4.8% 6.9%
Total United States 1.7% 5.1% 6.8%
*As of 8/1/15
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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2016F by Chain Scale
2016 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (% chg)
Luxury 0.5% 5.3% 5.8%
Upper Upscale 0.7% 5.6% 6.4%
Upscale 0.7% 5.2% 5.9%
Upper Midscale 0.8% 4.6% 5.4%
Midscale 0.9% 4.1% 5.0%
Economy 1.0% 4.4% 5.4%
Independent 0.4% 5.1% 5.5%
Total United States 0.8% 5.2% 6.0%
*As of 8/1/15
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-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
New York Houston Anaheim Phoenix Oahu Atlanta Tampa
Philadelphia Boston
Chicago
Dallas Denver Detroit
Los Angeles Miami
Minneapolis Nashville
New Orleans
Norfolk Orlando
San Diego
San Francisco Seattle
St. Louis Washington, DC
2015 Year End RevPAR Forecast (Total U.S. 6.8%) Top 25 US Markets, August 2015 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
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2016 Year End RevPAR Forecast (Total U.S. 6.0%) Top 25 US Markets, August 2015 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
Atlanta Anaheim Boston Dallas Chicago Denver
Los Angeles Detroit Miami Houston
New Orleans Minneapolis New York Nashville Norfolk Oahu
Orlando Philadelphia
Phoenix San Diego
San Francisco Seattle
St. Louis
Tampa Washington, DC
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In sum…..
(mostly)
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1. Industry Record Breaking Continues And Continues
2. Group and Transient Pricing Power Is All Good
• What do Meeting Planners Think? Tough Bunch
3. Highest & Lowest Growth Markets Some Challenged
4. Pipeline Growth Scattered
5. Where Are We Headed? Up
5 Things to Know …..
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Other Items of Interest
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Certification in Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA)
STR and AHLEI have partnered to launch the Certification in Hotel Industry Analytics for a variety of industry professionals.
• There are four core content areas:
o Hotel Industry Foundations
o Hotel Math Fundamentals – the metrics used by the hotel industry
o Property Level Benchmarking (STAR Reports)
o Hotel Industry Performance Reports
• One or two-day CHIA workshops are available
• To find out more please contact us at [email protected]
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Airbnb
• http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/the-secret-of-airbnbs-pricing-algorithm
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2015 DESTINATIONMAP MARKETS
Anaheim Atlanta Austin Baltimore Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Fort Lauderdale
Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Las Vegas Los Angeles Louisville Miami Minneapolis Montreal Nashville
New Orleans New York Oahu Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Antonio
San Diego San Francisco San Jose Scottsdale Seattle St. Louis Tampa Toronto Vancouver Washington, D.C.