home: noaa physical sciences laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from ooz thu feb 04....

39

Upload: others

Post on 23-Sep-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 2: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Page 3: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Page 4: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Page 5: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 6: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 7: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 8: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 9: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 10: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 11: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 12: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 13: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 14: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 15: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 16: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 17: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 18: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 19: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

630 am email from CXI:

“Clear with lots of stars at launch. Still hot and humid, though notas hot as during day. Sounding showed dry air aloft, which is why the stars are so bright.”

Paul

--

Paul E Johnston

Page 20: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

GFS 42 HR Div Wind Vectors Valid 00Z Feb 7 SUN

Page 21: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

GFS 66 HR FCST Valid 00Z MON Feb 8: 200 mb DIV Wind Vectors

Page 22: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 23: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 24: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 25: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 26: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 27: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Courtesy WeatherBell : Latest ECMWF 24 HR Fcst Valid 00Z SAT

Page 28: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Courtesy WeatherBell : Latest ECMWF 48 HR Fcst Valid 00Z SUN

Page 29: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Courtesy WeatherBell : Prior ECMWF 72 HR Fcst Valid 00Z SUN

Page 30: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

Courtesy WeatherBell : Latest ECMWF 72 HR Fcst Valid 00Z MON

Page 31: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

ECMWF 7-Day Pcpn Accumlated : Ending 00Z Fri 12 Feb

Page 32: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 33: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

GFS 7-Day Pcpn Accumlated

Page 34: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

GEM 7-Day Pcpn Accumlated

GEM 7-Day Pcpn Accumlated

Page 35: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 36: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

00Z FRi Feb 5 00Z MON Feb 8

18Z Sun Feb 7 18Z Wed Feb 1018Z MON Feb 8 18Z THU Feb 1100Z THU Feb 11 00Z Sun FEB 14

Page 37: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD
Page 38: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD

CPC February Outlook CPC 6-10 Day Fcst for 10-14 Feb

Page 39: Home: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory · 2016. 2. 5. · 198-360hr fcst from OOZ Thu Feb 04. Valid 06Z Fri Feb 12 - OOZ Fri Feb 19 Ratio. Forecast/Climo Prob of Precip > 50mm. CSGD