holding colleges accountable evisionsconference2013
TRANSCRIPT
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President Jill Tiefenthaler
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Myth #1 You no
longer need a college degree
to be successful.
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Forbes edition on The
Richest People in America, January, 2012 – “Think you need a
college degree to become a business star--think again.”
Despite the hype, 85% of those on the list
have at least a college degree.
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College-to-High School Weekly Wage Premium, 1963–2008
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Higher Education 2010, Figure 1.7a
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Myth #2
More than half of recent
college graduates are unemployed.
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Unemployment Rates by Education Level, 1992–2009
SOURCE: The College Board, Education Pays 2010, Figure 1.10a
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Unemployment rate for young college graduates, by gender, 1989–2012*
*Latest 12-month average: April 2011–March 2012.
SOURCE: Economic Policy Institute, “The Class of 2012: Labor market for young graduates remains grim,” Figure G
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SOURCE: Economic Policy Institute, “The Class of 2012: Labor market for young graduates remains grim,” Figure I
*Latest 12-month average: April 2011–March 2012.
Unemployment and underemployment rates for young college graduates, 1994–2012*
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Unemployment and underemployment rates of young high school graduates, 1994–2012*
SOURCE: Economic Policy Institute, “The Class of 2012: Labor market for young graduates remains grim,” Figure D
*Latest 12-month average: April 2011–March 2012.
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College costs too much. It isn’t worth the
investment.
Myth #3
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Estimated Cumulative Earnings Net of Loan Repayment for Tuition and Fees, by Education
SOURCE: The College Board, Education Pays 2010, Figure 1.3
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Distribution of Full-Time Undergraduates at Four-Year Institutions by Tuition and Fees, 2012-2013
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 2
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Increasing tuition has created a
student loan debt crisis. Students are
drowning in mounds of debt that they can’t
repay.
Myth #4
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American Debt – Type 2011
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Growth of Loan Dollars by type, Constant 2010 Dollars
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2011, Figure 4.!
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Average Debt Bachelor’s Recipients, Public Schools, 2010 Dollars
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2011, Figure 10A.!
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Average Debt Bachelor’s Recipients, Private Schools, 2010 Dollars
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National Student Loan Default Rate
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/defaultrates.html.
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Federal Student Loan Two-Year and Three-Year Cohort Default Rates by Sector
SOURCE: Department of Educa6on (studentaid.ed.gov/about/data-‐center/student/default); Table: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2012, Figure 9B.
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Your text here.
For-profit colleges are more efficient than traditional
privates and publics and will
bring much needed competition to
higher education.
Myth #5
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Four-year Graduation Rates, by sector
SOURCE: The Education Trust 2010; “For-profit Data Summary,” IPEDS First Look 2008-09, Table 5. Graduation rates at Title IV institutions, by race/ethnicity, level and control of institution, gender, and degree at the institution where the students started as full-time, first-time students: United States, cohort year 2002.
55 65
22
0
20
40
60
80
4-‐Year
IPEDS Gradua6on Rate, 2008
Public
Private, Non-‐Profit
For-‐Profit
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Average Published Undergraduate Charges by Sector, 2012-13
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Table 1A
Tui$on and Fees
Sector 2012-‐13 2011-‐12 $ Change % Change
Public Two-‐Year In-‐State
$3,131
$2,959
$172
5.8%
Public Four-‐Year In-‐State
$8,655
$8,256
$399
4.8%
Public Four-‐Year Out-‐of-‐State
$21,706
$20, 823
$883
4.2%
Private Nonprofit Four-‐Year
$29,056
$27,883
$1,173
4.2%
For-‐Profit $15,172 $14,737 $435 3.0%
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$7,960
$17,040
$31,190
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Public Private, non-‐profit For-‐profit
Median Debt of Bachelor's Degree Recipients, 2007-08
Median Debt, by sector
SOURCE: The Education Trust, Subprime Opportunity: The Unfulfilled Promise of For-profit Colleges and Universities (November 2010), Figure 3
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SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2012, Figure 11C
Cumulative Debt: Students Who Left without Completing a Degree by Sector and Length of Enrollment
Amount Borrowed by Students Who First Enrolled in 2003-04 and Left Without Completing a Degree or Certificate by 2009, by Institutional Sector and Length of Enrollment (with Percentages of Students in Each Sector Within Enrollment Category)
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The whole industry is inefficient. Tuition keeps
going up because higher education
can’t control costs.
Myth #6
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Average Annual Percentage Increase beyond Inflation,1981-82 to 2011-12
Source: The College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (PEDS).
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Inflation-Adjusted Published Tuition and Fees, 1981-82 to 2011-12
Source: The College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, Integrated Postsecondary EducaFon Data System (PEDS).
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Distribution of Undergraduate Enrollment by Sector, 2009-2010
Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2011
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TUITION =
COST/Student – SUBSIDY
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Annual Percentage Changes in State Appropriations per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) and in T&Fs at Public Four-Year Institutions, Inflation Adjusted
Sources: The College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; Illinois State University, Grapevine reports; NCES, Digest of EducaFon StaFsFcs 2008, Table 219.
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Resident Student’s Share of College Cost All Governing Boards
32%
66%
68%
34%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000-‐01 2001-‐02 2002-‐03 2003-‐04 2004-‐05 2005-‐06 2006-‐07 2007-‐08 2008-‐09 2009-‐10 2010-‐11 2011-‐12
Student Share State Share $6,523
$9,636 $9,154
SOURCE: NCHEMS, Colorado Commission on Higher Education, “Some Basic Facts about Colorado Higher Education”
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Colorado College’s Selectivity over Time
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Even if the public tuition is increasing
faster in recent years, they are still more affordable
than private colleges.
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Average Published Undergraduate Charges, by Carnegie Classification
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Table 1B
Tui$on and Fees
Carnegie Classifica@on
2012-‐13
2011-‐12
$ Change
% Change
Public Doctoral In-‐State
$9,539
$9,126
$413
4.5%
Public Master’s In-‐State
$7,606
$7,207
$399
5.5%
Public Bachelor’s In-‐State
$6,718
$6,433
$285
$4.4%
Private Doctoral $35,660
$34,230
$1,430
4.2%
Private Master’s $25,997
$24,903
$1,094
4.4%
Private Bachelor’s
$27,482
$26,427
$1,055
4.0%
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“Calculating the Cost of College”
SOURCE: New York Times, “Calculating the Cost of College,” http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/01/16/education/calculating-the-cost-of-college.html
Family A Family B Family C
2011 Combined Income $50,000 $100,000 $150,000
Home Equity 75,000 150,000 225,000
Savings/Investments 5,000 10,000 25,000
2012-‐13 Total Price Family and Student Burden
Colorado College $54,200 9,300 22,650 40,500
U.C. Berkeley Resident Out-‐of-‐State
$32,706 $55,584
11,110 33,768
23,500 46,378
32,706 55,184
U. of Illinois, Urbana Resident Out-‐of-‐State
$33,922 $48,064
26,277 41,356
33,922 48,064
33,922 48,064
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Online education is the disruptive
innovation that changes everything. It will lower costs,
increase accessibility and make traditional colleges irrelevant.
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Liberal Arts colleges are irrelevant in this STEM
world.
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The best and brightest
students attend our nation’s
elite institutions.
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Percentage Growth in Mean Family Income by Quintile in Constant 2010 Dollars
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current PopulaFon Survey, Table F-‐1, Table F-‐3, and FINC-‐01; calcula6ons by the authors.