highlights of inemi 2013 technology...
TRANSCRIPT
Highlights of iNEMI 2013 Technology
Roadmaps
Chuck Richardson, iNEMI
2013 IPC APEX EXPO
February 21, 2013
San Diego Convention Center,
San Diego, CA
Topics
• iNEMI Introduction
• Roadmap Process / Scope Overview
• 2013 Roadmap Statistics
• Situation Analysis
• Technology Needs
• Strategic Concerns
• Paradigm Shifts
• Summary/Next Steps
1
About iNEMI
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led
consortium of 107 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations,
government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues;
All Funding is Returned to the Members in High Value Programs and Services; In
Operation Since 1994.
Visit us at www.inemi.org
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment Projects
• Research Priorities Documents
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
3 Major Focus Areas:
• Miniaturization
• Environment
• Medical Electronics
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
OEM/ODM/EMS Members
3
Supplier Members
4
Supplier Members – PWB Supply Chain
5
Association/Consortium, Government, Consultant &
University Members
6
pinfa
International Members
Across The Total Supply Chain
Key Observations:
• 66% Growth Overall Since 1/1/2010
• 140% Growth in University/Research Institutes Since 1/1/2010
Total Global Supply Chain Integration
The International Membership Incorporated Location; Number of Members
INEMI Member Business Type North
America Asia
Region Europe Totals
OEM 14 3 2 19
ODM/EMS (inc. pkg. & test services) 5 5 1 11
Suppliers (materials, software, services) 8 19 12 39
Equipment 9 0 2 11
Universities & Research Institutes 8 3 2 13
Organizations 11 1 2 14
Totals 55 31 21 107
Roadmap Process & Scope
2013 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
Emulator Characteristics
Consumer / Portable
Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver, hand
held battery powered products are also driven by size and
weight reduction
Office Driven by the need for maximum performance over a wide
range of cost targets
Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive environment
High-End Systems
(The Cloud)
Products that serve the high performance computing/storage
markets including networking, datacom and telecom and
cover a wide range of cost and performance targets
Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in some
cases, support life critical applications
Aerospace / Defense Products that must operate reliably in extreme environments
9
10
Roadmap Development
Product Emulator Groups TWGs (20)
Med
ical P
rod
ucts
Au
tom
oti
ve
Defe
nse a
nd
Aero
sp
ace
Semiconductor Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Business Processes
Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.
Po
rtab
le / C
on
su
mer
Off
ice S
yste
ms
Hig
h-E
nd
Syste
ms
Example Product Emulator Chapter Content
Portable/Consumer
Contents
Consumer / Portable Product Sector .......................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3
Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 11
Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 16
Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends ............................................................... 18
Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 19
Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 25
Tables
Table 1. Key Parameters for Hand Held Product Sector .............................................................. 12
Example Product Emulator Chapter Content – (continued)
Portable/Consumer – Smartphone/Non-Smartphone Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
$Bn
2009 2010 2012 2013 20152011 2014 2016
N212.146mvc- value ship
56
98
174
222
275
318
89
$385Bn$377Bn
$361Bn
$324Bn
$276Bn
$235Bn
$178Bn
$146Bn
81
62
54
48
43
Total Branded:
Smartphones: Non-Smartphones:
CAAGR 2011-2016
10.4%
-13.4%
15.4%
339
355
3830
Example Product Emulator Chapter – (continued)
Portable/Consumer, Key Parameters Table 1 (12 rows of ≈ 250) Parameter Descriptions Metric 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023
Components/ Package Typical Product Family
Utilizing
Max Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 500 600 700 800 1200
Average Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 50 55 60 80 120
Average Component Density Substrate Density #/sq.cm 30 40 50 80 120
Maximum I/O per package State of the Art
(production volume) I/O per part 600 675 725 1000 1400
Average I/O per package State of the Art
(production volume) I/O per part 7 7.5 8 9 11
Max Components/sq. cm. Substrate Density #/sq.cm 55 60 70 75 95
Max I/O for 50 mm square SCM w/
full area array
State of the Art
(production volume) # 3000 3500 5000 8000 1300
Max I/O for 100 mm square MCM w/
full area array
State of the Art
(production volume) # UA UA UA UA UA
Package I/O Pitch, (area array) Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for SCM (area
array)
Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for MCM (area
array)
Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch (perimeter) Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
2013 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic PCB Board
Assembly Customer
Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage &
Conversion Systems
Modeling, Simulation, and
Design
Packaging &
Component
Substrates Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Information
Management Systems
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Sustainable
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component &
Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
14
Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics Contents
Optoelectronics ............................................................................................................................1
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 11
Situation (Infrastructure) Analysis ........................................................................................ 15
Telecommunications Situation.......................................................................................... 17
The Telecommunications Sector vs Data Communications Sector .................................. 23
FTTX Situation ................................................................................................................. 24
Local Area Network (LAN) Situation .............................................................................. 28
Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) Situation ........................................................ 34
Active Optical Cable Situation ......................................................................................... 38
Backplane Situation .......................................................................................................... 41
On-Card Data Transmission Situation .............................................................................. 46
On-Chip Optical Interconnect Situation ........................................................................... 52
BER (Bit Error Rates) ....................................................................................................... 54
Financial and Business Status ........................................................................................... 55
Status Summary ................................................................................................................ 60
Manufacturing Issues ............................................................................................................ 61
Manufacturing Equipment Availability ............................................................................ 61
Data Communication Manufacturing Process Issues ....................................................... 62
Designing for Manufacturing ............................................................................................ 66
Quality Requirements ....................................................................................................... 67
Environmental Issues ........................................................................................................ 68
Supply Chain Issues .......................................................................................................... 68
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 69
Critical (Infrastructure) Issues .............................................................................................. 84
Technology Needs ................................................................................................................ 87
Prioritized Research & Development Needs ........................................................................ 89
Gaps and Show Stoppers ...................................................................................................... 90
Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies ................................................... 91
Black Swans2 ........................................................................................................................ 92
Appendix A ........................................................................................................................... 93
Graphical Roadmap Representation ................................................................................. 93
Appendix B ........................................................................................................................... 95
Electrons vs Photons for Data Communication ................................................................ 95
Appendix C ........................................................................................................................... 97
Contributors/Acknowledgments ....................................................................................... 97
Appendix D ........................................................................................................................... 98
Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 98
Appendix E ..................................................................................................................... 101
Optoelectronic Internet Links to Items of Interest. ......................................................... 101
Example Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (2)
Plus Tables 45 through 65
Tables
Table 1: Summary of Critical issues, Gaps and Show Stoppers, and Technical Needs .............9
Table 2: Market and Application Mapping: Product status matrix .........................................13
Table 3: Optical Data Transmission Technology Improvements and Potential Future
Improvements .......................................................................................................21
Table 4: Distinct LAN Applications .........................................................................................28
Table 5: MSA Standards Overview ..........................................................................................29
Table 6: Examples of short range, commercial POF based systems. .......................................35
Table 7: Some of the Active Optical Cable Suppliers as of August 2012 ................................38
Table 8: Recent Financial Results of Some Industry Firms .....................................................54
Table 9: Manufacturing Processes for Optical Products with Those Unique
to Optical Products Highlighted .........................................................................58
Table 10: Telecommunications – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................70
Table 11: FTTX (X = Curb, House, Desk, Antenna, etc…) – Key Attribute Needs ................71
Table 12: LANS – Key Attribute Needs ...................................................................................73
Table 13: Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) – Key Attribute Needs ..........................75
Table 14: Active Optical Cables (AOC) – Key Attribute Needs ..............................................76
Table 15: Backplane – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................................78
Table 16: On-Card – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................79
Table 17: In-to and Out-of Package –Key Attribute Needs ......................................................80
Table 18: On-Chip – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................82
Table 19: Critical Infrastructure Issues .....................................................................................83
Table 20: Technology Needs ....................................................................................................86
Table 21: Research and Development Needs ...........................................................................88
Table 22: Gaps and Show Stoppers ..........................................................................................89
Table 23: Potential Alternate Technologies ..............................................................................90
Table 24: Black Swans 91
Example Chapter Content Optoelectronics (3) Figures
Figure 1: Data rates vs distance with media as a parameter illustrating optical dominance
when distance x data rate exceeds 100 Gb/s. .........................................................1
Figure 2: The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links .......3
Figure 3: A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving
technology is important. .......................................................................................4
Figure 4: Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast ..........................................11
Figure 5: The overview Graphic of the Optical Electronic TWG Roadmap. ...........................12
Figure 5: Generic Data Transmission Environment .................................................................14
Figure 6: Cost Comparison of Copper vs. Optical by Distance and Bandwidth ......................15
Figure 7: Telecommunication System Capacity and Traffic over 5 decades. ..........................16
Figure 8: Evolution of Telecommunications (>10Km) OE Structure ......................................17
Figure 9: The Shannon Limit and Current Results of Data Transmission Rates
Utilizing Optical Technologies .............................................................................19
Figure 10: Illustrating the Loss in db/Km vs Wavelength of Single Mode Fiber and showing
the “C” band in which the Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier provides
amplification ........................................................................................................20
Figure 11: An Upstream CATV architecture that modulates light sent from the Central
office and returns in with information impressed on it .....................................25
Figure 12: An FTTX architecture that transmits many wavelengths and then sends one
wavelength to a customer or, more often, sends each of the wavelengths
to multiple customers ...........................................................................................26
Figure 13: Evolution of Common Transceivers and Transponders. .........................................31
Figure 14: The Evolution of Transceiver Size to Increase Panel Data Density........................32
Figure 15: Improvements in Density (Gb/s/inch), Power Use and Bandwidth Density for
Various Form Factors in The Order of Their Introduction ................................33
Figure 16: Low cost Connectorless Package of a POF Source. ................................................35
Figure 17: The Above POF Market Chart from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber Market &
Technology Assessment Study – 2011” ............................................................36
Figure 18: Graphic from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber in Industrial Controls – 2011” ...............37
Figure 19: Typical Active Optical Cable. AOCs Do Not Utilize Optical Connectors, Only
Electrical Connectors at the Ends. The AOC Fiber Bundle Also Has a
Small Diameter Compared to the Electrical Equivalent ....................................39
Figure 20: A series of Charts with Data on Active Optical Cables. From IGI ........................40
Figure 21: An Optical Backplane concept with both electrical and optical connectors
between the cards and backplane ......................................................................41
Figure 22: “FlexPlane” Optical Backplane by Molex ..............................................................42
Figure 23: Reflex Photonics Implementation of Optical Interconnect to supplement an
Electrical Backplane .........................................................................................43
Figure 24: A Drawer from the IBM Blue Waters Super Computer ..........................................44
Figure 25: The BlueWaters Rack Structure that holds Drawers. ..............................................44
Figure 26: A Basic Method to Implement On-Card Optical IO ...............................................45
Figure 27: Provides Some MicroPOD details; close ups of the bottom BGA pattern; a top
view without the 45o connector and ribbon fiber; an array of MicroPODS
with the ribbon fiber and connector illustrating the fiber management 46
Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (4)
18
Figure 28: A close up of the top of the MicroPOD with and without the 45o connector and
ribbon fiber .......................................................................................................46
Figure 29: AIO-TXN-40G 40 Gb/s Surface Mount Transceiver. .............................................47
Figure 30: An On-Card Optical Electronic Data Transmission Approach
from IBM. August 2010 ....................................................................................47
Figure 31: 8-Inch eAOC for Next Generation Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones. ............48
Figure 32: In-to and Out-of Chip SiP Package, Photo Courtesy of Reflex Photonics Inc. ......49
Figure 33: Hyper Dense Optical Module from Reflex Photonics.............................................49
Figure 34: Optical On-Card using In-to & Out-of Package Technology..................................50
Figure 35: Two Approaches for Waveguide Coupling. ............................................................50
Figure 36: Proposed Methods of Coupling Light Into and Out of Optical Substrates .............51
Figure 37: One Current View of the Place for Optical vs Copper On-Chip Interconnect ........53 Figure 38: Transceiver Shipments in units/year .......................................................................55
Figure 39: Overview of the Optical Industry Financial Situation Highlighting the Limited
R&D Investment Available .............................................................................56
Figure 40: Transceiver Revenue by Major Market Segments Historically and as Forecast
by Light Counting ............................................................................................57
Figure 41: FTTX Transceiver Revenue historically and forecast by Standard from
Light Counting ................................................................................................57
Figure 42: The decline in transceiver prices over the decade ending in 2009 ..........................58
Figure 43: Forecast Annual AOC Revenue ..............................................................................58
Figure 44: A Planar Lightwave Circuit, A Passive Device that Requires No Power ...............64
Figure 45: A Photonic Integrated Circuit Built with a Technology That Is Compatible with
CMOS Fabrication ..........................................................................................64
Figure 46: Manufacturing Process for One Product .................................................................65
Optoelectronics and Optical Storage
Organic Printed Circuit Boards
Magnetic and Optical Storage
Supply Chain
Management
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC / EIPC / TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS /
MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board Assembly
TWG
Interconnect Substrates—Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
iNEMI / MIG / ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives TWG
Statistics for the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap
• > 650 participants
• > 350 companies/organizations
• 18 countries from 4 continents
• Greater than 7 man years of resources in the development
• 20 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
• > 1900 pages of information
• Roadmaps the needs for 2013-2023
20
Excellent Networking Opportunities Via Roadmap
Participation
Opportunity to network and share ideas with the entire supply chain:
1) Industry drivers are specified in 6 different product areas (chapters).
2) 20 different technology areas are represented as chapters.
3) Cross cutting issues abound and are discussed during roadmap development as applicable.
4) Discussions within and between chapter participants typically uncover issues of common gaps and solutions.
5) Participation typically leads to a great deal of learning and understanding.
6) Roadmap participation can be of great benefit to personal growth and contribute to the person’s job skills.
7) An opportunity to learn team building skills.
8) Become proficient in methods for sharing information for development of published technical information.
9) A forum for improving communication skills.
10) Project management skill enhancement is possible through chapter leadership.
11) Face to face meetings are held in conjunction with industry shows whenever possible to aid learning.
12) Opportunity to form lasting relationships with team members.
Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis: Technology • Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led
to increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.
• High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge
• SiP:
– Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high density substrates
• New sensors and MEMs:
– Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products
– Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D-axis & 3D-axis gyroscopes
– Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration
• 3D IC with TSV:
– Driven by Performance and Size requirements
23
Technology Needs
25
Technology Needs
• New MEMS driven by Automotive, Medical and Cell Phone
applications
• Thermal Management for Portable Products
• Development of viable rework process for Pb-free soldering
• Cooling Solutions for Portable Electronics (3D-TSV)
• Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of MEMS
• Testing of Energy Managed modules
• Functional Testing of Complex SIPs
• Low Temperature Processing
Expanded Rework Section (SnPb)
26
Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework
Soldering
Process Parameter Units 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023
SnPb
Maximum package
size mm 50 50 55 60 75
Minimum package
size mm 5 2 1.5 1.5 1
Smallest type of
discretes being
reworked
- 0201
(Imperial)
0201
(Imperial)
01005
(Imperial)
0201
metric
0201
metric
Minimum re-
workable pitch mm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Target delta T across
solder joints °C <10 <10 <10 <10 <10
Typical rework
profile length (time) min 8 6 to 8 6 to 8 6 to 8 6 to 8
Time Above
Liquidus (TAL) sec 45-90 45-90 45-90 45-90 45-90
Number of allowable
area array reworks at
a specific location
# 3 3 3 3 3
Type of rework
(Conv./IR/Other)
(Other is Laser and
Vapor Phase
Rework)
% 85/15 85/15 85/15 80/20 70/20/10
Type redress
approach (Non
Contact/SolderWick)
% 20/80 20/80 20/80 30/70 40/60
Type of medium
deposit for BGA
component rework
(Paste on PCB/Paste
on Part/Flux only)
(See Note)
% 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20
Expanded Rework Section (Pb-Free)
27
Pb-free
Maximum
package size mm 50 50 55 60 75
Minimum package
size mm 5 2 1.5 1.5 1
Smallest type of
discretes being
reworked
- 0201
(Imperial)
0201
(Imperial)
01005
(Imperial)
0201
metric
0201
metric
Minimum re-
workable pitch mm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Target delta T
across solder
joints
°C <10 <10 <10 <10 <10
Typical rework
profile length
(time)
min 8 8 8 8 8
Time Above
Liquidus (TAL) sec 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90
Number of
allowable area
array reworks at a
specific location
# 3 3 3 3 3
Type of rework
(Conv./IR/Other)
(Other is Laser
and Vapor Phase
Rework)
% 85/15 85/15 85/15 80/20 70/20/10
Type redress
approach (Non
Contact/Solder
Wick)
% 20/80 20/80 20/80 30/70 40/60
Type of medium
deposit for BGA
component rework
(Paste on
PCB/Paste on
Part/Flux only)
(See Note)
% 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20
Note: The use of solder paste or tacky flux will depend on the type of component being reworked.
Paste is typically used to reduce the affect of component warpage causing Head-in-Pillow component
soldering defects during BGA and PoP part rework. In terms of ease of use and speed of rework, tacky
flux is used more even though it may have an affect first pass yield. The percentages mentioned for
Paste versus Flux medium are for BGA rework and will vary dependent on the type of part being
reworked.
Strategic Concerns
Strategic Concerns
• Restructuring from vertically integrated OEMs to multi-firm supply chains
– Resulted in a disparity in R&D Needs vs. available resources
• Critical needs for R&D
– Middle part of the Supply Chain is least capable of providing resources
• Industry collaboration
– Gain traction at University R&D centers, Industry consortia, “ad-hoc” cross-
company R&D teams
• The mechanisms for cooperation throughout the supply chain must be
strengthened.
– Cooperation among OEMs, ODMs, EMS firms and component suppliers is
needed to focus on the right technology and to find a way to deploy it in a
timely manner
• Collaboration is iNEMI’s Strength; We play an important role
29
Paradigm Shifts
Paradigm Shifts
• Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D):
– Increases flexibility
– Shortens design cycle
• Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry:
– Major transition in business models
– New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers
– Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)
– Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)
– “Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)
• Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more
• Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic!
• “More Moore” (scaling of pitch) has reached its forecast limit and must transition to heterogeneous integration - “More Than Moore”.
31
912.1/105bp
SiP/MCP FORECAST
Product/Package Type
Volume (Bn Units) 2011
2016
Forecast Leading Suppliers/Players
Stacked Die In Package 6.8 10.9 ASE, SPIL, Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, Samsung,
Micron, Hynix, Toshiba, SanDisk
Stacked Package on Package
(PoP/PiP) 0.7 1.5
Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, ASE, SPIL, TI,
Samsung, Renesas, Sony, Panasonic
PA Centric RF Module 3.7 3.9 RFMD, Skyworks, Anadigics, Renesas,
TriQuint, Avago
Connectivity Module
(Bluetooth/WLAN) 0.5 0.6 Murata, Taiyo Yuden, ACSIP, ALPS
Graphics/CPU or ASIC MCP 0.1 0.2 Intel, IBM, Fujitsu
Leadframe Module
(Power/Other) 3.0 5.0
NXP, STMicro, TI, Freescale, Toshiba, NEC,
Infineon, Renesas, IR, ON Semi
TOTAL 14.8 22.1
Internet Traffic Forecast
33
Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast. H-S= High Speed
Traffic; AAA=Advanced Architecture Traffic
Source: International Gatekeepers Inc.
report "North American Network Traffic Forecast April, 2011"
Potential Impact of HPC on Optical Interconnect Usage
34
Figure 2. The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links.
Data Center Energy Conservation Critical
35
A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving technology is important.
GLOBAL MEDICAL ELECTRONICS MARKET SUMMARY
k912.169bes-med summary
Instruments used to measure and
monitor a patients’ vital signs and
other functions.
Example: blood glucose, ECG
All other electronics used
for medical applications
Example: surgical tools,
test & analytical,
medical IT,
biochips, RFID
Diagnostics and Imaging
Diagnostic instruments that provide
high resolution pictures of structures
inside the body.
Example: MRI, X-ray, ultrasound
Equipment used in the treatment
of specific medical conditions
Example: defibrillator, hearing aid
Medical Therapy Patient Monitoring Others
2011
TOTAL: $91Bn
CAAGR 4.4%
TOTAL: $113Bn
2016
Diagnostics
and Imaging
29%
Diagnostics
and Imaging
26%
Medical Therapy
28%
Medical Therapy
29%
Patient
Monitoring
19%
Others
24%Others
24%
Patient
Monitoring
21%
TELE HEALTH AND BODY AREA NETWORKS
• Tele-health systems range from
standalone monitors to personal alarms.
• Bluetooth-based body sensor networks
can autonomously monitor vital signs
and, in the future, deliver precise drug
doses autonomously.
• An electronic monitoring system replaces
a labor service such as a home health
care attendant, nurse, or an assisted
living abode.
• Prismark estimates that the hardware
value was approximately $1.2Bn in 2010.
• Prismark expects growth rates in excess
of 20% over the next ten years.
311.10/169rd
TUNSTALL TELECARE SYSTEM
MEDTRONIC MINILINK™ GLUCOSE SENSOR
Packaging/ Interconnect
3D Packaging (No
TSV)
3D IC Integration
C2C/C2W/W2W; microbump bonding; 5 ≤ TSV ≤ 30μm;
20 ≤ memory stack ≤ 50μm; 100 ≤ interposers ≤ 200μm
3D Si Integration W2W
pad-pad bonding (TSV ≤
1.5μm)
3D Stacking
(wirebonds)
PoP
CMOS image sensor
with TSV
Memory (50μm) with
TSV and microbump
Passive TSV interposer to
support high-performance
chips
CMOS image
sensor with DSP
and TSV
32 memory (20μm)
stacked
Active TSV Interposer (e.g.,
Memory on Logic with TSVs)
Mass Production
Low Volume
Production 2008 2010 2012
Don’t care to guess! Mass
Production 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17
Low volume production = only a handful of companies are SHIPPING it;
Mass production = many companies are SHIPPING it.
Cu-Cu bonding
SiO2-SiO2 bonding
3D MEMS; 3D LED
Bumpless
Bumpless
3D Integration Roadmap
39
TSV AND Si INTERPOSER FORECAST
Bn
Packages
TSV Die/
Package
Bn
Die
M Wafers
(300mm Equiv.)
2014 2016 2014 2016 2014 2016
Die per
300mm
Wafer 2014 2016
Typical
Wafer Size
DRAM/NAND
(plus control die) 0.2 1 3 2.3 0.6 2.3 650 0.9 3.5 300
Logic and Memory 0 0.25 1 1 0 0.25 390 0.0 0.6 300
Si Interposer for Logic 0.05 0.16 1 1 0.05 0.16 300 0.2 0.5 200/300/
panel
RF/Discrete/LED/ 1.7 2.5 1 1 1.7 2.5 7000 0.24 0.4 150/200/300
Image Sensor 2.6 2.9 1 1 2.55 2.85 3000 0.85 1.0 200/300
Total 4.5 6.8 4.9 8.1 2.2 6.0
712.5/294bp
3D-TSV WAFER FORECAST2012 2014
2016
DRAM/NAND
1M
DRAM/NAND
3.5M
kc812.294bp-wafer12-16
Logic and Memory
0.60M
Image
Sensor
0.7M
Image
Sensor
0.85M
Image
Sensor
0.95M
RF/Discrete/LED
0.10MRF/Discrete/LED
0.25M
RF/Discrete/LED
0.40M
Interposer
0.03MInterposer
0.20M
Interposer
0.55M
Total: 0.83M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Total: 2.3M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Total: 6M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Draft Interposer Table
Base Silicon Interposer
Year of Production 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Minimum TSV pitch (um) 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20
Minimum TSV diameter(um) (D) 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10
TSV maximum aspect ratio (L/D) 5 5 7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10
Minimum Si Wafer final thickness
(um) (3) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
TSV Methods and Materials
Via fill method Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill
TSV Fill Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other
Alignment requirement, um
(assume 25% exit dia)5 5 3.75 3.75 3.75 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Maximum Number of RDL Layers -
Top side4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Maximum Number of RDL Layers -
Bottom side2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Interconnect methods - Top side (5)
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Interconnect methods - Bottom
side
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Draft Interposer Table
TSV
3D Integration
Base Silicon
Interposer
Additional Packaging/Substrate Tables
• ITRS (International Technology Roadmap For Semiconductors) shares leadership and participants with the iNEMI Roadmap Packaging & Component Substrates TWG.
• The ITRS is fully updated bi-annually and tables annually.
• The ITRS Packaging chapter focuses on semiconductor fabrication and packaging while the iNEMI chapter focuses on the impacts of semiconductor packaging and component substrates evolution on assembly and test issues.
• Some iNEMI PEGs (Product Emulator Groups) provide “key attribute” drivers for the ITRS Design and System Drivers ITWGs (International Technology Working Groups).
• The ITRS just completed their 2012 table updates.
• iNEMI and the ITRS will be co-hosting a one-day workshop on April 24th in Lyon, France to discuss advancing the relationship in “More Than Moore” or heterogeneous integration in future roadmaps.
• The entire ITRS is available at: http://www.itrs.net/Links/2012ITRS/Home2012.htm
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Next Steps for 2013 Roadmap
45
Product
Needs
Technology
Evolution
Gap
Analysis/
Technical
Plan
Research
Projects
Implementation
Competitive
Solutions
Roadmap Project
Completion
Industry Solution
Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI
Users & Suppliers
Regional
Collaboration
No Work
Required or
Outsourced
Available to
Market
Place
Global
Participation
Disruptive
Technology
Next Steps: Identify Initiatives to Close Gaps
Completing the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap
• 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Development Cycle is wrapped up!
– Global Workshops Held:
• San Diego, CA 5/29/12
• Berlin, Germany 6/12/12
• Hong Kong, China 6/14/12
• Complete integration of chapters & editing completed
• Available to Members now
• 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Public Webinars and shipping to industry (≈April 4):
– Watch for a press release with times and access information or check the iNEMI website
– Available for order at www.inemi.org (beginning now for 10% discounted price)
– Individual roadmap chapters will also be available as a PDF document at www.inemi.org
– Intranet license also available for purchase so company can share globally
• Get Involved in iNEMI – A growing organization with an Eye to the Future and a Means to Get There
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