hedgeye asset allocationdocs.hedgeye.com/he_tms_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · hedgeye risk...
TRANSCRIPT
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HEDGEYE 2
DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com.
LEGAL
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
March 16, 2016
HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
CASH U.S.EQUITIES
INT'LEQUITIES
COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE
FIXED INCOME
64%
0% 0%
18% 18%
73%
HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
March 16, 2016
HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
March 16, 2016
S&P 500 REVENUES & EARNINGS COMPS
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HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
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HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
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HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE
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HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS
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CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING
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MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED
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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
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LIGHT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
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TOKYO NIKKEI AVERAGE INDEX
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3MO
4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW
March 16, 2016
SELL THE HAWK
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1 2 3
USD
RUSSELL 2000
HEALTHCARE
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USD Not surprisingly, the USD is up (this week) into the “relatively hawkish” #LateCycle Employment Fed statement – but how much USD (and rates) upside is there? Not much, for now as both the Japanese and European #BeliefSystem of FX devaluation continues to break-down, pressuring USD inasmuch as slowing housing and consumption data does.
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RUSSELL 2000 Right there with the Financials (XLF -6.0% year-to-date) as Best Ideas Shorts in 2016 year-to-date is the Russell 2000 (down -1.6% yesterday to -6.1% year-to-date) as both a are much purer play on the short side of the U.S. economy slowing than the global one. We know that doesn’t fit the perma bull narrative. But it does fit yesterday’s U.S. Retail Sales and Housing (NAHB) data! #slowing.
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HEALTHCARE Another Sector Style that continues to underperform in 2016 (XLV down -1.7% yesterday to -6.7% year-to-date, with Biotech, IBB, -3.8% on the day). We know. We know. It was Valeant( VRX). But remember what the macro message is there – don’t be long storytelling, leverage, and “pricing” when the macro risk = #Deflation.