hazard vulnerabilty analysis: issues with the current …

HAZARD VULNERABILTY ANALYSIS: ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT MODELScot Phelps, JD, MPH, Paramedic, CEM/CBCP/MEPAssociate Professor of Emergency Management

Three Aspects

PROBABILITY X HUMAN IMPACT X PROPERTY IMPACT X BUSINESS IMPACT X

PREPAREDNESS X INTERNAL RESPONSE X EXTERNAL RESPONSE

Three Aspects

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PROBABILITY=1

HUMAN IMPACT=1 PROPERTY IMPACT=2 BUSINESS IMPACT=2

PREPAREDNESS=2 INTERNAL RESPONSE=1 EXTERNAL RESPONSE=2

RELATIVE THREAT=.165

Example: Fire

THE KAISER HVA ASKS “HOW DOES THIS HAZARD AFFECT

THE HOSPITAL?”

THE CORRECT QUESTIONS IS “HOW ARE THE HOSPITAL’S

BUSINESS PROCESSES EFFECTED BY A HAZARD?”

Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business Impact Analysis.


Our Mission is to Care for the Sick

and Injured

Our Mission is to Care for the Sick

and Injured


Our Mission is to Manage the Business of

Caring for the Sick and Injured

Our Mission is to Manage the Business of

Caring for the Sick and Injured

HOW DOES THIS BUSINESS UNIT SERVE THE HOSPITAL?

Business Impact Analysis.

HOW IS IT EFFECTED BY CRISIS “X”?

CAN IT STOP AND FOR HOW LONG?

WHAT HAPPENS IF IT “BREAKS”?


WHAT OTHER UNITS OF THE HOSPITAL DEPEND ON IT TO

FUNCTION?


HOW MANY OF YOU KNOW:

HOW LONG YOUR BILLING OFFICE CAN HAVE NO INTERNET ACCESS UNTIL

YOUR HOSPITAL IS BANKRUPT?

HAVE AUTHORIZED THE PAYROLL COORDINATOR AS “ESSENTIAL

PERSONNEL”?


HUMAN IMPACT IS UNDERVALUED

Issue #2: People are Important

Issue #2: People are MORE Important….

MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS CAN BE “OUTWEIGHED” BY MITIGATION, EVEN IF MITIGATION DOES NOT

ADDRESS THAT PARTICULAR FACTOR

Issue #3: Mitigation Can Hide Magnitude

PROBABILITY CAN “BURY” IMPACT AND

DISTORT RELATIVE RISK

Issue #4: Probability Can Hide Impact

Risk IS About Frequency….

Risk IS About Frequency…

WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN IT SNOWS?




New York’s Relative Risk=.44

New York’s Relative Risk=.44



London’s Relative Risk=.43

London’s Relative Risk=.43

“BLIZZARD OF ANGER FOLLOWS LONDON SNOWSTORM”-ASSOCIATED

PRESS

"ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST ECONOMIES SHOULD NOT BE GRINDING

TO A HALT…”

$4.3 BILLION COST IN LOST PRODUCTIVITY


What We Should Worry About….

Low Frequency/High Impact High Frequency/Low Impact(Kaiser Model)

High Frequency/High Impact(Kaiser Model) Low Frequency/Low Impact

Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact Box….

Fast Decision Required

Slow Decision Required

Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact Box….

Fast Decision Required

Slow Decision Required

Fast Decision Required Fast Decision Required

“Red Flag” Sentinel Risks

Red Flag Risk


Yellow Flag Risk

WHAT WE DO: CRITICAL FUNCTIONS

Revised Model

ADMINISTRATION ENGINEERING SUPPLY CHAIN DATA CENTER/IT EMS EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT SURGERY

CLINIC/OUTPATIENT OPERATIONS INPATIENT OPERATIONS SECURITY

FOOD SERVICE HOUSEKEEPING LABORATORY PHARMACY

Critical Functions

WHAT WE NEED TO DO IT: CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Revised Model

SITE ARCHITECTURAL STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS BUILDING ENVELOPE

UTILITY SYSTEMS MECHANICAL SYSTEMS PLUMBING & GAS SYSTEMS ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS FIRE ALARM

SYSTEMS COMMUNICATION & IT SYSTEMS EQUIPMENT OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE SECURITY SYSTEMS

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

Critical Infrastructure

Revised Model

Asset Value-How Critical Is It to the Mission?

Threat (cumulative)-What Can Happen?

Vulnerability-How Protected is the Asset?

Human Impact Factor


Red Flag Risk


Yellow Flag Risk

For Each Agent/Hazard

C r i t i c a l

I

Critical Functions

For Each Agent/Hazard

NEED TO UNDERSTAND IMPACT ON BUSINESS UNITS

HUMAN IMPACT IS MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR

NEED TO LOOK FOR OUTLIERS IN HIGH VALUE/HIGH THREAT /HIGH

VULNERABILITY ASSETS

KAISER MODEL CAN BURY HUMAN IMPACT IN IMPACTS, MITIGATION, OR PROBABILITY

CONCLUSION

SCOT PHELPS, JD, MPH, PARAMEDIC, CEM/CBCP/MEP

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY 144 FARNHAM AVENUE NEW HAVEN, CT 06515

[email protected]

QUESTIONS?

hazard vulnerabilty analysis: issues with the current …

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