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HGAP Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019 Haynesville Global Access Pipeline

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Page 1: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

HGAP

Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019

Haynesville Global Access

Pipeline

Page 2: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

SW Louisiana: core of US gas demand2025

Notes: LNG demand includes ambient capacity; Sources: company data,

Drilling Info, Entergy, Tellurian estimates

2

L o u i s i a n aT e x a s

G u l f o f M e x i c o

Driftwood LNG

Cameron LNG

Sabine Pass LNG

+20 bcf/d of potential demand

by 2023-25 includes:

(1) Sabine Pass 1-6

(2) Cameron LNG 1-5

(3) Driftwood LNG

(4) Golden Pass

(5) Calcasieu Pass

(6) Port Arthur LNG

(7) Lake Charles

(8) Magnolia

(9) SASOL

(10) Lake Charles CCGT

(11) OCI Methanol/Ammonia

(12) Exxon Beaumont

expansion

West

Inbound to SWLA (2019)

~11 bcf/d

Haynesville

Perryville/Delhi

Eunice/Station 85

Lake Charles, LA

SW Louisiana is the epicenter of US

LNG growth

• 11 bcf/d of expected pipeline

capacity not enough for +20 bcf/d

of potential demand in 2025

• Need North/South infrastructure to

connect supply to demand

Golden Pass LNG

Page 3: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Corpus Christi T1-3

Freeport T1-3

Sabine Pass T5-6

Cameron T1-5

Driftwood

Golden Pass

Calcasieu

Port Arthur

Elba Island

-

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2017-2025

Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025

Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025

Growth

2025

Texas Louisiana Other Gulf Coast*

Sector demand growth 2017-2025 (bcf/d)

IndustrialPowerLNG

*MS, AL, GA and FLSource: IHS-Markit (long-term outlook 2H 2018), LNG TELL Analysis; Golden Pass and Port Arthur included in LA due to connectivity

LNG dominates demand growthNo better market in the Southeast or US Gulf Coast than SW Louisiana

3

bcf/d

Page 4: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Haynesville: a world class shale play…on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Source: Drilling Info; Haynesville wet gas produciton at $2.75/MMBtu Henry Hub price

4

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ja

n-2

1

Ja

n-2

2

Ja

n-2

3

Ja

n-2

4

Ja

n-2

5

Ja

n-2

6

Ja

n-2

7

Ja

n-2

8

Ja

n-2

9

Ja

n-3

0

mc

f/d

Arkla - Haynesville Haynesville North East Texas Arkla

Page 5: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Haynesville production built to lastResilient in low gas price environment

Source; RS Energy

5

$1.14 $0.85

$1.04

$0.20 $0.59

$0.59 $0.27

$0.40

$0.38 $0.08

$0.23 $0.24

$0.62

$0.52

$0.63 $2.31

$2.59

$2.88

Haynesville Marcellus Utica

$/m

mB

tu

Capex Operating Transportation Differentials Royalties and Severence

Page 6: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Last mile problemDespite Haynesville’s position, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to bring it to market

Sources: ARI, Drilling Info

6

Carthage

Perryville

Transco St85

FGT Z3

HSC

HHAD

441

Marcellus-Utica196

Permian

Anadarko

111

102

Eagle Ford

131Total selected basin shale

production,

bcf/d

Resource

size, tcf

Marcellus pipelines:

7.7 bcf/d

Midship:

1.3 bcf/d7.3

16.9

2017 2025

5.88.9

2017 2025

5.6

12.7

2017 2025

7.39.8

2017 2025

24.6

38.1

2017 2025Haynesville

50.6

86.4 35.8

2017 2025 Incremental

production

KMI: ~4.0

bcf/d

Page 7: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

De

live

ry

Take

aw

ay

De

live

ry

Take

aw

ay

De

live

ry

Take

aw

ay

De

live

ry

Take

aw

ay

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci

Shipper delivery vs. takeaway comparison (bcf/d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci Total Net

Imbalance

Net pipeline delivery/takeaway (bcf/d)

Market driven out of balanceA significant portion of Northeast pipeline capacity reversals do not reach end-user markets due to physical pipeline constraints

7

Market is looking for new infrastructure to solve the problem

Source: Informational postings on company EBB’s, PointLogic

Page 8: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Perryville basis weakeningHaynesville production largely headed to Perryville/Delhi

Source: iCE, RS Energy

8

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

$(0.30)

$(0.25)

$(0.20)

$(0.15)

$(0.10)

$(0.05)

$-

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

bc

f/d

$/m

mB

tu

Perryville Basis to HH Haynesville Production

Page 9: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

The worst is yet to comeSouthbound capacity just starting to ramp up

Source; RS Energy

9

Page 10: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Other markets becoming less attractiveHouston Ship Channel rolling forward curve –

Permian wave looming

Transco Station 85 rolling forward curve – Northeast volumes are coming

10

-$0.20

-$0.15

-$0.10

-$0.05

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

MA

Y 1

9

NO

V 1

9

MA

Y 2

0

NO

V 2

0

MA

Y 2

1

NO

V 2

1

MA

Y 2

2

NO

V 2

2

MA

Y 2

3

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mB

tu

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

Source: Bloomberg, ICE

-$0.08

-$0.07

-$0.06

-$0.05

-$0.04

-$0.03

-$0.02

-$0.01

$0.00

MA

Y 1

9

AU

G 1

9

NO

V 1

9

FEB

20

MA

Y 2

0

AU

G 2

0

NO

V 2

0

FEB

21

MA

Y 2

1

AU

G 2

1

NO

V 2

1

FEB

22

MA

Y 2

2

AU

G 2

2

NO

V 2

2

FEB

23

MA

Y 2

3

AU

G 2

3

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mB

tu

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

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Louisiana gas flows and basis - 2023RBN Energy

Haynesville S&D (bcf/d):Production: 9.6Demand: 0.5 Net Outflows: 9.1

South Louisiana S&D (bcf/d):Production: 2.6Demand: 4.1 Net Inflows: 1.5Imbalance -0.8-$0.45

2.2

7.9

1.7

0.6

1.98.7

1.5

*Haynesville, Bossier, Cotton Valley (Terryville)

Perryville S&D (bcf/d):Production: 0.0Demand: 0.2 Net Inflows: 0.2

3.9

5.5

-$0.40

TCO

-$0.62

Haynesville*

East TexasTransco St 85

Perryville

South LA

Katy/Ship

Page 12: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

HGAPMap & Terms

Page 13: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

HGAP route

13

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HGAP anticipated receipts

14

Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired receipts and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

Page 15: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

HGAP anticipated deliveries

Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired deliver ies and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

15

Page 16: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/HGAP... · 2019. 4. 29. · Freeport T1-3 Sabine Pass T5-6 Cameron T1-5 Driftwood Golden Pass Calcasieu

Thank you