hatchery fish and natural productivity of pink and chum ... · hatchery fish and natural...
TRANSCRIPT
Hatchery Fish and Natural Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Populations in Alaska
Mark Chilcote
Climate Change Assessment Origins
FS assessment of climate change Annual variation in salmon and air temperature Exceptional salmon database
Prince William Sound Salmon Data
- 211 survey sites x 5 - Fishery impact rates - 30 years - Hatchery fraction
(600m pinks, 100m chum)
Alaska Dept of Fish and Game
Rich Brenner Steve Moffitt
Population Model Climate Change Assessment Use
Ln(Rec) = [Ln(Spwn) + Ln(α) – βS] + γT
Population Model Productivity Estimate Use
Ln(Rec) = [Ln(Spwn) + Ln(α) – βS] + γT
plus hatchery fraction = Adventure !
Preliminary Results
Compared to Chilcote et al 2011
Problems and Errors?
Not many points at Ph > 0.30 Harvest rate estimate creates bias? Crude analytical approach Plus …..
Possible Explanations?
Genetic – mate selection Genetic – spawn timing, damage wild redds,
poor fry survival Ecological Other?
What is Next ?
More data points Better analysis More time - help ?
