guy dauncey 2007 global climate change: seeking solutions that work guy dauncey 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Global Climate Change: Seeking Solutions that Work
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
I gratefully thank the photographers and illustrators whose work I have so freely used,
and all who have taught me.
Guy Dauncey, March 2007
Please send note of errors and corrections toguydauncey @ earthfuture.com
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There are only two problems on Planet Earth.
The first is the sum total of all our social, economic, and environmental problems.
The second is the belief that we cannot solve them.
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The whole universe is made of energy, starting with the Big Bang
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We are just beginners, however, in learning how to use it.
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Millions of years ago, the sun shone on Planet Earth.
Forests grew, with giant trees and ferns.
As they fell, their hydrocarbons were stored away underground.Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
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The moral of this story:
“We are just beginners. We make mistakes.
We have unimaginable potential.”
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85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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But wait, there’s a second problem: Peak OilGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
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No new oil or gas is being made, by God or anyone.
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Growing Demand + Shrinking Supply = Rising Prices, Energy Insecurity
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“Burning all the world’s fossil fuels will dramatically raise global temperatures.”
New Scientist, March 4, 2006
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The Age of Fossil Fuels is very short
So what comes next?
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Shall we drink and be merry?
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Eat another planet?
Alexey Soloviev
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Or get on, and solve the problem?
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The Next
Great
Energy
Revolution
The Next
Great
Energy
Revolution
2000 2100 2200 2300 240019001800170016001500
FirewoodCoal
Oil&
Gas
Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Biofuels
Nuclear
We are simply entering a new energy revolution
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“Every time humankind has switched from an existing fuel to a newer one -
from wood to coal, coal to oil, oil to natural gas - the switch has been associated with
economic progress.
The same will be true for alternative energies such as wind energy, solar power,
cogeneration, and fuel cells.”
- Jim Woehrle and Julie BachMinnesotans for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Sweden plans to end its
dependency on oil by 2020
“No home will need oil for heating … no motorist will be obliged to use
petrol as the sole option available."
More use of biofuelsBiomass district heatingHybrid and ethanol cars
Renewable electricitySweden: 9 million people
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“For us as a company, the debate about CO2 is over. We've entered a debate about what we can do about it.”
“You are from the United States. Why don't you join the Kyoto agreement?
You see an initial framework there and you can build on that for our future.”
Jeroen Van Der Veer, CEO Royal Dutch Shell, speaking to Americans attending the Arab Strategy Forum
Dubai, December 4th 2006
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HEAT Can we keep warm with sustainable energy?
Super-Efficiency
Everything could use half as much energyGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Home efficiency retrofitUp to 50% energy savings
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Solar hot water - evacuated tubes
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Solar hot water on the Best Western Inn, Kelowna
www.swisssolartech.com
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Solar wall heating
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British Columbia goal of
100,000 solar roofs by 202010,000 by 2010
(30% PV, 70% Solar hot water)
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Heat Exchange
A geo-floor being laid
Ground-source heatAir-source heatWater-source heatSewer-source heat
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Ground Source Heat
2 million installations in 30 countries13% Growth rate pa$16,000 to $24,000
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Air-Source Heat Pumps
Cost: $5,000 - $12,000
Energy gain in mild BC:1 unit in, 3 to 3.5 units out.
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Sewer Source Heat-Pumps
In Zurich, Switzerland, 200 metres of sewer
provides a third of the heat for
940 homes
1.5 metres of sewer heats one home
www.rabtherm.de
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Solar Thermal 12 months a year
Solar heating 12 months a year
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The Energy Centre
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar heat panels
Solar hot waterpanels
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BioHeat from Columbia Fuels is a fuel blend consisting of 20% biofuel combined with ultra-low sulfur home heating fuel that can be used in any existing furnace oil system without modification.
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Biomass cogeneration
Beddington Zero Energy Development, Sutton, London, UK
Energy Centre
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www.docksidegreen.ca
Dockside Green, Victoria
www.docksidegreen.ca
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TRANSPORT
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Automobile CO2 emissions
What are the Solutions?
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The Amazing 1 Horse-Power Car?
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Community Ride-Sharing?
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How to reduce our use of oil to zero
Step 1: Don’t travel at all
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Step 2: Walking“These feet were made for walking,
and that’s just what they’ll do.One of these days these feet are going to
walk the way to school.”
Toronto Walking School BusToronto Walking School Bus
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Too Pooped to Pedal? Go Electric!
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Step 4: Share a Ride
Work-based green travel clubs
Community Ride-Sharing Club
www.carpool.ca
www.shareadrive.ca
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liftshare: Britain’s national car-sharing company
Members registered with liftshare: 153,41Members obtaining a match: 32%
Trips registered for next 12 months: 33 million
Yukon equivalent would be 15,000 shared trips a year
www.liftshare.org
Step 5: Transit
1. U-Pass for all local residents, paid with municipal taxes2. Transit expansion funded by carbon tax3. Long distance: comfortable, on-board Internet, OJ
Boulder, ColoradoNeighborhood
Eco-Pass $50 to $130 a year
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Automobile CO2 emissions
What are the Solutions?
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Fuel Efficiency Standards have been frozen for 20 years
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Fuel Efficiency versus “Safety”
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To show what’s possible……..
Shell Eco-Marathon Fuel-Efficiency Challenge
2003 Team Microjoule, St Sebastien/Loire, France. 10,705 miles per gallon
Supermileage: UBC Contest winners: 3145 mpgGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Future vehicles:which method of propulsion?
Hydrogen?
Biofuel?
or Electric?
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Option 1: Green Hydrogen
Use green electricity to produce hydrogen.Possible for cars, trucks, ships, & planes.
Problems: Time - infrastructure - CostNothing planned until 2020
Schatz Energy Research Center
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Option 2:Bio-Fuels
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Ethanol from cropssugar cane, switchgrass, corn, cellulose wastes
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The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with ethanol could feed a person for a whole year.
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Area required to power 50% of miles driven in US
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Land needed if all vehicles used 10% biofuel:
USA: 30% of croplandEuropean Union: 72% of cropland
World: 35% of cropland
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Biodiesel from waste fats
Restaurant fats, animal & fish wastes, crop wastes
Drawback: Limited amount of waste fats
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In Zurich, 1200 cars run on Kompogas made from yard
waste & compostables
www.kompogas.chGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Biogas from sewage runs 30 buses in Stockholm
200 buses by 2010Stephen Salter, 2007
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...plus ten taxis...Stephen Salter, 2007
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...and 220 cars, ramping up to 1,500 in the futureStephen Salter, 2007
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Another substitute for oil…..
Thermal Conversion Process
“Anything into oil…”
www.changingworldtech.com
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1. Organic and inorganic matter
2. Heat
3. Depolymerization
4. Hydrolysis splits complex molecules into simpler units
5. InorganicMaterial storage
6. Separationof gases, biodiesel,Water and solids
7. Biodiesel storage
“The Thermal Conversion Process mimics the Earth’s natural geothermal process by using water, heat and pressure to transform organic and inorganic wastes into oils, gases, carbons,
metals and ash. Even heavy metals are transformed into harmless oxides.”
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Agricultural wastesare almost 50% of the total yearly waste generation in the US: 6 billion tons
With TCP, the 6 billion tons could theoretically be converted into 4 billion barrels of oil.
Global oil consumption: 31 billion barrels a year
US oil consumption: 7 billion barrels a year
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Top speed 130 kph (80 mph) Lithium Ion batteries, range 130-160km (75-100 miles)
Recharge in as little as 20-25’ using a 200-volt fast chargerHome recharging in up to 11 hours
Option 3: Electric Vehicles 2006: Mitsubishi MiEV
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Tesla EV Roadster (2006)
0 to 60 in 4 seconds 250 miles per charge$92,000 US
1 cent per mile: 10,000 miles = $100/year = $8 per month= 25 cents/day www.teslamotors.com
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Take a hybrid, such as the Prius….
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Add extra batteries
= “Plug-In Hybrid EV”(PHEV) 100+ mpg
Reduce the Weight
2002 Prototype Volkswagen 1-Litre285 mpg
Weight: 290 kg Regular car: 1400 kg
80% less weight = 80% less fuelGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Hummer: 15 mpg $150/monthRegular car: 25 mpg $100/monthToyota Hybrid EV: 50 mpg $50/monthPlug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV): 100 mpg $25/monthLightweight PHEV: 600 mpg $4/month
= 15 cents a day10,000 miles a year
Wind-power charged @ 8 cents/kWh
“15 cents a day”
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Can Electric Vehicles work in the cold?
“..with simple battery heating and insulation, the performance of electric cars is not significantly affected by
cold weather. A 1987 VW EV Jetta experienced a range reduction
of just 0.4% after cold-soaking for 42 hours at -17º C compared to its range at 20º Celsius.”
www.econogics.com
EV Solectria Force in Wisconsin at -17º Celsius
(6º F in the sun)
What about commercial goods?
Japanese hybrid truck 30% reduced fuel use
Plug-In hybrid = 70% reduced fuel on local trips
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Hydrogen made with excess electricity from the alternator injected straight into the combustion
chamber reduces fuel use by 22%
Coming soon…
This could lead to the Hydrogen Enhanced
Plug-in Hybrid EV
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Hydrogen?The A 310 Airbus designed for hydrogen
With 23,000 flights a day, where will all the hydrogen come from?
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Solar ?
The Solar ImpulseOne person - 30,000 ft - 6 layers thermal underwear
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Helium and biodiesel?
Slow, but possible
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Teleconferencing
Coming soon to every Mac and PC
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This assumes
Green Electricity
as the main power for most transport backed with biofuels or hydrogen.
Where will it come from?
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#1: EFFICIENCYGreat potential for saving energy
With the best policies, tax credits, and incentives,
we could reduce our demand for power
by 50%.
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LED lights only use
1 to 5 watts
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#2: SOLAR
Solar Energy40% growth pa50 cents/kWh
Global Potential: Enormous
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 12 kW solar shingles, MontanaGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Muhlhausen Solar Farm, Bavaria, Germany10 MW, 9,000 homes, 30 acres
The Solar Future
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Solar PV WallFreiburg,Germany
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MIT Study of deep rocks geothermal electricity
Potential resource: “Truly vast”
Drilling technologies needed: oil and gas industry
Potential commercial scale: 10 to 15 years
Cost of electricity: $3.6 to 9.2 cents kWh
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2004 Geothermal Map of
North America
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Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
#4: WINDGlobal potential: Enormous
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2005: 60,000 MWGlobal potential: 72 million MW40 x today’s global power needs
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Installed capacity:
Germany: 17,000 MWSpain: 10,000 MWUS: 8,000 MWIndia: 4,000 MWCanada: 1,050 MW
www.canwea.org
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Pearl River tower Guangzhou, China 69 stories high
Will produce more energy than it uses Wind, solar, natural cooling
Heat from rainwater and humidity
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Chicago
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Tidal energy
BC’s potential: 2,500 MW
Global potential:18% of world’s power needs
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500 kW Limpet, Islay, Scotland Pelamis, off Portugal
Wave energy9 cents kWh
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Micro-hydroBC’s Potential:
2,530 MW
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Biogas16 million household digesters
12 - 20 cents kWh
Anaerobic digestion and co-generation creates electricity, heat, and fertilizer
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Investment in Renewable Energy
1995: $7 billion
2004: $30 billion
= 20-25% of total power investment
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Today 2020
Wind (onshore) 3 - 5 2 - 3
Wind (offshore) 6 - 10 2 - 5
Solar PV 20 - 80 4 - 10
Wave 8 - 20 5 - 7
Tidal 8 - 15 8 - 15
Biomass 5 - 15 4 - 10
Geothermal 2 - 10 1 - 8
US cents per kWh
The Price of Sustainable Energy
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When the wind’s not blowing, how
can we firm up intermittent
power?
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1. Reservoir Storage
When wind turbines generate more power than needed,
hydro generation is cut back and the surplus wind power
Is stored behind the dams.
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2. Flow Batteries
A regular battery is “full” when its chemicals have absorbed all the charge.
A flow battery allows the charged chemicals to flow into a storage tank, enabling the battery to store more power.
On King Island, near Tasmania, south Australia, this has enabled the increased use of wind in the grid from 10% to 40%.
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3. Cold Storage
Refrigerated warehouses use power day and night.
When the temperature of stored frozen products is allowed to vary by 1º C,
the warehouses can act as a 50,000 MWh batterystoring more than twice the projected average hourly
wind power production in the EU by 2010.
Night Wind project, Netherlands
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4. Electric Cars (Vehicle to Grid V2G)
1 million V2G vehicles could generate up to 10,000 MW of electricity = 20 power plants2001 study by AC Propulsion, EV maker in San Dimas, Calif.
Tying it all Together: The Distributed Grid
Bonneville Power Administration, WA
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What About Coal?
By 2012:China: 562 new plantsIndia: 213 new plantsUSA: 72 new plants
Total: 327,000 MW
1200 - 2700 MT of CO2 a year for 60 years
+ 58 other nations are planning
340 more plants
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The Coal-Fired Inferno
2700 MT of CO2 a year =
5 times more than the planned Kyoto reductions
… for 60 years
Clean Coal?Carbon Capture & Sequestration
1. Separate the CO2 emissions from the waste gases2. Transport the CO2 by pipeline3. Bury it away underground, hopefully for ever4. But will it produce yet more CO2 from oil? (see 3)5. Will it pollute underground aquifers? (see 2)
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Norway’s Statoil Sleipner CO2 sequestration
Cost of CCS: $20 to $70 per tonne of CO2Norway’s carbon tax: $50 per tonne
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“Clean Coal”Carbon Capture & Sequestration
Existing projects:Algeria: In Salah Gas, 1 MT a year underground, EORCanada: 70 Enhanced Oilfield Recovery (EOR) projectsGermany: Ketzin, CO2 storage experiment (60,000 tonnes)Norway: Sleipner underground storage (since 1996)CO2 Capture Projects: 8 leading global energy companies
Planned projects:Britain: Centrica, North Sea storage California: Thornton CO2 storage experiment (4000 lbs) Germany: Vattenfall, Underground burial?
Nothing likely at any serious level until 2030US DoE - not commercially practical for 15+ years
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1. The private sector won’t touch it2. The tax-payer is on the tab for insurance3. Same $$ spent on efficiency does more4. Wastes are radioactive 250,000 years5. Uranium is a limited resource6. Cooling fails during hot summers7. Rising sea levels flood ocean plants8. Constant links to cancer9. Nukes can lead to nuclear bombs 10.Nukes and terrorists….
10 Reasons why Nuclear is not a Good Idea
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How could BC advance the renewable energy
revolution?
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How much sustainable, green electricitycould British Columbia generate?
Today: 60,000 GWh MW GWh/yr Cents/kWh Jobs
Wind 5000 11,000 6-12 31,250
Microhydro 2530 11,108 4-9 5,700
Wood waste biomass 215 1800 4-9 484
Geothermal 1070 9,000 5-9 7,000
Tidal 2225 13,000 11-25 13,906
Landfill gas 15 85 4-5 20
Solar PV 6000 12,000 60 - 20 210,000
Total potential power
58,000
Efficiency n/a 12,500 3-6 145,200
Solar Hot Water n/a 10,000 n/a [60,000]
GeoExchange Heat n/a 3,750 n/a [21,420]
Total +84,250
413,560
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Motor Vehicles in BC: EV Power Demand Canada B.C. kWh per
16,000 kmGWh per yearpower demand
Total vehicle registrations, 2004 25,100,296 2,707,940
Total road motor vehicle registrations 19,081,478 2,410,482
Vehicles weighing less than 4500 kg 17,920,360 2,273,461
(a) Super Lightweight 1,000,000 1500 1500
(b) Medium weight 1,000,000 3000 3000
(c) Normal weight 273,461 6000 1640
Vehicles weighing 4500 kg to 14999 kg 389,810 78,622 10,000 786
Vehicles weighing 15000 kg or more 285,154 14,198 15,000 213
Buses 77,447 8,201 15,000 123
Motorcycles and mopeds 408,706 35,999 1,000 36
Trailers 4,492,733 268,241 2,000 536
Off-road, construction, farm vehicles 1,526,083 29,216 6000 175
Total 8,000
BC’s current electricity use: 60,000 GWh/yr
Statistics Canada + EV power data. Guy Dauncey August 2005
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www.bcsea.orgGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
In Europe, the best policy is the
Advanced Renewables Tariff(aka Feed Laws/Standard Offer)
1. All R.E. providers have guaranteed access to grid2. Guaranteed price per kWh3. Tariffs secure for 20 years4. Possible size limit for each technology5. Cost shared by all utility ratepayers
Ontario Power Authority, under 10 MW:• Wind, microhydro, biomass: 11 cents kWh• Solar: 42 cents kWh
BC could do likewiseGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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110,000 PV systems
2,000 biomass plants
6,000 small hydro
16,500 wind turbines
45,000 jobs in wind
Germany’s policy has led to:
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Grow local organic food
Travel by foot and bike
Make your home super-efficient
Share rides, use biodiesel
Become active
Put solar on your roof
What can I do?
Organize a small climate group
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
What is your Carbon Footprint?
Driving: 1 litre of gas = 2.34 kg of CO2 10,000 km (1000 litres) = 2.34 tonnes of CO2
Flying: Victoria to Calgary return = 250 kg of CO2
Electricity (diesel): 10,000 kwh = 6 tonnes of CO2
Heating Oil: 1 litre= 2.6 kg of CO2
Gas: 1 gigajoule= 52 kg of CO2
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Become Carbon Neutral
Solar Electric Light Fund: www.self.org
Solar PVin place of keroseneas carbon offsets$10 US per tonne
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
What Can Your Business Do?Five Step Program
Step 1: Form a Climate Solutions Team.
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Five Step Program
Step 2: Hold a series of brown bag lunches. Talk about what your business could do.
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Five Step Program
Step 3: Organize a Trip Reduction Programwith rewards for staff who reduce the most.
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Five Step Program
Step 4: Organize a “Let’s Save Energy Campaign”
Appoint an Energy Manager for each building to be in charge of demand reduction and cost savings.
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Five Step Program
Step 5: Calculate your greenhouse gas emissions.Set a target to reduce, and start planning.
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What Can Your Community Do?
Be a champion for your region
Set clear goals, as many cities have done
Engage other people, and their creativity
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Squamish
Feb 6, 2007: Global Warming Action Plan Unanimous approval
12 Step Pledge to Reduce GHGs“Municipal leaders and governments have the extraordinary ability to change the current trend of global warming at the grassroots level. Municipalities can do this by finding and facilitating innovative and practical examples, and positively influencing the behaviour and attitudes of their employees and citizens.”
- Councillor Patricia Heintzman
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Squamish’s 12 Step Pledge to Reduce GHGs
• Do inventory of emissions, set targets, create an action plan
• Adopt and enforce anti-sprawl land-use policies
• Promote green transport options
• Encourage and increase use of green energy.
• Building Code improvements
• Energy Star equipment & appliances for municipal use
• Increase efficiency of municipal facilities• Increase average fuel efficiency of municipal fleet• Evaluate opportunities to increase water/wastewater
efficiency• Increase recycling rates• Maintain and encourage healthy urban forests• Educate the larger community about reducing global
warming.
Show how it can be done efficiently, economically and sensitively.
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Squamish Existing Initiatives
Smart Growth concept plan for Downtown.
OCP under review for smart growth.
Policies and bylaws to implement smart growth
Biodiesel Pilot Program Idling Reduction Policy 30-year energy planWind Energy feasibility analysis
Energy Savings Plan to help residents Recreation Centre energy retrofit
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Oak Bay, Victoria
Climate Action Task Force just established
USA: 490+ cities striving to meet the Kyoto goal
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Mayne Island, BC“Cool Islands” initiative
Community educational workshops
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One Planet
Many sectors
Many technologies
Many policies
Science Education Investment
Political will
Personal will
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Form a CRD Climate Action Team
Choose a clear goal: 33% reduction by 2020or 60% reduction by 2020
Establish a Local Carbon Tax
Use 50% of the income to reduce taxes50% to reduce emissions
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Local Carbon Tax
BC: 195,000 barrels of oil a day = 71 million barrels a year 1 barrel = 119 litres
71 million barrels = 8,450 million litres a year
CRD = 330,000 people = 8% of BC
8% of 8450 million litres = 676 million litres a yearCarbon tax at 20 cents/litre = $135 million a year
50% as tax break on municipal taxes = $450 per household50% for a Climate Solutions Fund
$67 million = $184,000 a day
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BuildingsHome retrofit program (tax credits, grants, loans)
Solar hot water as a utility program
Energy upgrades as a utility program
Incentives for geothermal home heating
All buildings to be Energuide 80 by 2020
All homes to be upgraded each time they are sold
Energy and water efficiency certificates to be sold on the market - no building permits unless certificates are bought and retired.
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Transport
CRD-wide Ride-Share program
All motor dealers to display vehicle efficiency data
Community bulk order for Plug-in Hybrids
Video-conferencing for many more meetings
Incentives for cycling - 40 cents/km allowance
Community challenge to reduce single occupancy commuting
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Farming in the CRD
More food grown locally = less trucked flown inOrganic cultivation stores carbon in the soil
More fresh, healthy food
Together forever save the earth Anggi Dito Dwi Septian, Age 8
Al Amanah Elementary School Jakarta (Indonesia)
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Do we sit back and wait for the sea level to rise…
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Or do we get to work,
and build the world
we want?
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
"Ignoring climate change will be the most costly of all possible choices,
for us and our children."
Peter Ewins, British Meteorological Office
Thank you