gut feelings in the desert: antoine de st. exupery and the dragon fly i shaved carefully in a...
TRANSCRIPT
Gut Feelings in the Desert:Antoine De St. Exupery and the Dragon Fly
I shaved carefully in a cracked mirror. From time to time I went to the door and looked at the naked sand. … I was thoughtful. … For the moment everything was all right. But I heard something sizzling. It was a dragonfly knocking against the lamp. Why it was I cannot say, but I felt a twinge in my heart.
I went outdoors and looked round. The air was pure. … Over the desert reigned a vast silence as of a house in order. But here were a green butterfly and two dragonflies knocking against my lamp. Again I felt a dull ache which might as easily have been joy as fear, but came up from the depths of me.
St. Exupery in the Desert, continued
Something was calling to me from a great distance. Was it instinct?
Once again I went out. The wind had died down completely. The air was still cool. But I had received a warning. I guessed, I believed I could guess, what I was expecting.
I climbed a dune and sat down face to the east. If I was right, the thing would not be long in coming. What were they after here, those dragonflies, hundreds of miles from their oases inland?
St. Exupery in the Desert
Wreckage thrown up upon the beach bears witness to a storm at sea. Even so did these insects declare to me that a sand storm was on the way, a storm out of the east that had blown them out of their oases.
Solemnly, for it was fraught with danger, the east wind rose. … But that was not what excited. What filled me with a barbaric joy was …that I had been able to read the anger of the desert in the beating wings of a dragonfly.
St. Exupery, A. (1939). Wind, sand, and stars.
EVOLUTION OF PROBLEM STATEMENT
I. I’m about to fly across the Sahara, I’ve done it a 100 times, but something is bugging me. What?
2. Those insects bumping against my lamp are bothering me. How come?
3. Wait a second! I'm in the middle of the barren Sahara; what are a moth and a dragonfly doing out here?
4. What would it take to transport insects hundreds of miles from their native environment? Now put this into a succinct problem statement:
5. Does the presence of insects in the remote barren desert indicate the advent of a windstorm?
TRANSFORMING A PROBLEM STATEMENT INTO A HYPOTHESIS
“The arrival of live insects within the desert interior is a precursor of high winds.” What does St. Exupery do to test this hypothesis?
FORMS OF HYPOTHESES
"A" = Bugs"B" = Sandstorms "C" = Location
aridness"D" = Windy season
I. A B
I. A B II. (A X B) C: III. AB if D:
Bugs are related to sandstorms
Bugs predict sandstorms
Bugs & location aridness predict sandstorms
Bugs predict sandstorms IF windy season has started
RELATION BETWEEN THEORY AND HYPOTHESES
Example of Theory: Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999):
People systematically differ in how they subjectively order time into past, present, and future.
In other words, people can be characterized as “present oriented”, or “future oriented”.
Hypotheses that Derive from Time Perspective Theory
Theory:
People differ in time perspectives, and this shapes their behavior.
General Hypothesis
Future Oriented (FO) people are better at meeting time demands than are (PO). Experimental Hypotheses FO will sign up for experiments sooner than PO.
Science and Facilitated Communication
Science
Hypotheses arise form emotional problem, feeling of un-ease
Problem statement
Hypothesis statement, presented in falsifiable form
Experiment framed
Facilitated Communication Studies
Prosecutor worried about veracity of FC. OD Heck want to show that FC works
“… were these communications coming from the autistic children?”
If FC real, then it should work when the facilitator is blind to what the child sees.
Facilitator and child see same vs. diff. pics; how is performance affected?
Framing of Facilitated Communication Experiments
Kid Sees
Facilitator Sees
Cup Dog
Cup
I
II
Dog
III
IV
1. Which are the criterion cells?
2. If FC is valid, what are facilitator's responses in criterion cells?
X
X
Science and Facilitated Communication
Science
Conduct objective, varied, and replicable tests
New hypothesis: FC a sham, new discrepancies become evident.
New hypothesis has powerful social consequences
Serendipity (unexpected discovery)
FC Validation Studies
Double blind study; pix naming, mesg. passing, eyes on keypad
Kids type w/o looking at keypad; why autistics so verbally skilled? Why so many abuse cases?
Devastates believers; liberates kids, redeems "abusers"
Unconscious drives overt behavior; Freud. What is "will"? D. Wegner
Null Hypotheses
Defined: Null hyp. states that there is no relation between variables.
Examples: Class size is not related to performance
The sexes do not differ in aggression.
Bugs don’t predict sandstorms
Proper and Improper Use of Null HypothesisProper use of null hypothesis:
As a contrast, foil, to hyp. we want to confirm
H1: Smaller classes improved performance
Ho: Smaller classes unrelated to performance
Improper use of null hyp: As the object of research
H1: Smaller classes are unrelated to performance
Problems in trying to confirm null hyp:
1. Confirmation could be due to actual absence of effect
OR
2. Confirmation could occur b/c study improperly done.
MULTIVARIABLE VS. MULTIVARIATE RESEARCH
1. Multivariable: More than one causal variable but only one outcome variable:
EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects student’s test scores.
2. Multivariate: More than one causal variable and more than one outcome variable.
EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects students’ school
performance (test scores, discipline, attendance).
Univariate vs. Multivariable Research Univariate Research: One predictor variable and one outcome variable. Univariate is better designed to ask questions about whether certain things occur. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback? (i.e., Is there a feedback bias?) Multivariable Research: Two or more predictor variables and one outcome variable. Multivariable research permits investigation into underlying causes. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback, due to degree of social risk (high vs. low)? (i.e., is there a racial bias, and is it caused by perceived risk?)
Variables
Class 6
Knowing Concepts, Nomenclature, and Definitions
Your MD Understands: "hygiene", "contaminant", "microbial"
Your MD performs professionally, follows best
practices
YES
NO
YES NO
A B
C D
Which conditions do you find satisfactory? Why?
CONCEPTS, CONSTRUCTS, AND VARIABLES
Concept: An abstraction formed by generalizing from particulars.
Examples: Attention, Emotion, Learning, Prejudice
Construct: A concept that:
1. Allows for objective observation. * Can be measured (i.e., pounds, years, tears)* Can be described in terms of explicit, replicable operations (place subject on scale, gather birth date from drivers’ license, OR* Built on other constructs that are themselves based on operations.
2. Relates theoretically to other constructs * Built upon other constructs: (empathy = perspective taking + imagination) * A building block for other constructs: (empathy emotional intelligence)
3. Defined distinctly [Kent’s add-on]* “Trust = “believe w/o questioning” = gullibility = dependency = trust?
CONCEPTS THAT ARE NOT CONSTRUCTS: Heaven, Luck, Kharma
Intriguing, fascinating, provocative question: Is “hope” a concept or construct?
Concept or Construct?
Fitness Heart rate Health Reaction time Stress Resilience
Concept Construct Concept
Concept Concept
Construct
Concept to Construct to Variable
Prejudice =
Hostility toward minorities =
Physical distance
during conversation =
Concept
Construct
Variable
Variables
Concepts that have a range of values, such that X > 1
“Heaven” has no range, not a variable
“Church attendance” has a range, is a variable
Observable and measurable
“Love” is not observable
“Eye gazing” is observable
Form building blocks of constructs
“Size” is construct
“Inches” is variable
Qualitative and Quantitative Variables
Qualitative
Dichotomous, polychotomous
All numeric values of equal normative value
Examples Gender, race, blind vs. don’t blind Ghack boy
Quantitative
Continuous—take on a range of values
Numeric values represent more/less of attribute
Examples No. pos. feedback comments, feedback ratings
Operationalization
Steps, or “operations” taken to measure or create a variable.
Measured: Variable defined in terms of how it is measured
Francois: “Height, she is ze number of centimeters.”
Frank: “Height is the number of inches, by crackie!”
Experimental: Expt’l steps taken to create variable Confed. temperament = eye contact, voice tone, smiles/stares
What are operationalizations for “stress”, for “aggression”?
Value of Operationalization?
1. Enforces mental rigor; forces evaluation of assumptions.
2. Provides uniformly understood meanings 3. Helps to resolve discrepancies in science.
OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK VARIABLES
Variable
Feedback
Friendliness of recipient
Definition
No. of positive and negative comments
Rating sheet responses
Smiles, forward leaning, head nods, voice tone.
OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK
STUDY
DEFINITION OF FEEDBACK NATURE OF BIAS
Byalick & Bersoff, 1970
Physical contact, warmth, acceptance
Positive
Harber, 1998 Number of positive and negative comments on written work.
Positive
Massey, Scott, & Dornbusch, 1975
Match between student reports on teacher-feedback, and student’s grades.
Positive
Word, Zanna & Cooper, 1974
Non-verbal social cues Negative
Note: Diff. operational definitions can be associated with different outcomes.
TODAY’S CONTROVERSIAL QUESTION
Should psychology concern itself ONLY with constructs?
Are the following outside the realm of experimental psychology?
Free will Magic
Happiness Miracles
Love at first sight Prayer
Intuition
CONSITUTIVE AND OBSERVABLE VARIABLES
Constitutive Observable
Health Weight, blood pressure, temperature
SES Income, education
Intelligence Verbal skills, math skills, visual skills, social skills
Relation Between Operational and
Constituent Variables
( r > 0 )
C 1
C 2
C 3
D.O.
D.O.
Copy-edit comments
Rating Sheet
Feedback Bias
Note: D.O. = "Directly Observable"
Experiments as Expressions of Hypotheses
Most General Hypothesis
Interracial feedback is biased.
General Hypothesis
Feedback from whites to blacks is positively biased.
Specific Hypothesis
When whites provide performance feedback for sub-standard work, their feedback will be positively biased if they believe that the feedback recipient is black rather than white.
Experimental Hypothesis
White undergraduates instructed to critique poorly written essays for purposes of feedback will provide more positive feedback if informed that the essay writer is black rather than white.
Diagramming the Experimental Sentence
Construct
White undergraduate students
instructed to critique
poorly written essays
for … feedback
will provide more positive feedback if
informed that the writer is Black rather than White
Operational Definition
Students who identify themselves as White, not Hispanic, on a survey.
write comments on spelling, content, etc. on the essay
essays contain 5 spelling errors, 14 grammar errors, 5 content errors
subjects’ copy edited comments on essays are supposedly returned to the writer
no. of positive comments – no. of neg. comments
subjects read “self description sheet” supposedly completed by writer that indirectly indicates race, and confirmed by post-expt. manipulation check.
Lending a Hand: Social Regulation of the Neural Response to Threat
[Coan, J., Schaefer, H., & Davidson, R., (2006) Psych. Science, 17, 1032-1039]
...For this fMRI study, 16 married women were subjected to the threat of electric shock while holding their husband’s hand, the hand of an anonymous male experimenter, or no hand at all. Results indicated an attenuation of activation [in systems regulating threat] when women held their husband’s hand. Most strikingly, the effects of spousal hand-holding on neural threat varied as a function of marital quality ... .
What’s the hypothesis? What are the constructs, the IV, the DV, the operations?
Attributes and Aliases of IV and DV
Independent Variable (IV)
Dependent Variable (DV)
Cause
Antecedent
Event that E. controls or selects
Change in “X”
Effect
Consequent
Event that E. tries to predict
Change in “Y”
Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Race of feedback partners Feedback bias
Social context Moral choices
(NY vs. Ghakistan)
NOTE: IV can be DV can be IV
IV DV
Group pressure Conformity
Conformity Feedback bias
Active vs. Attributive Variables
Active (manipulated): Variables that are manipulated by the experimenter
Friendliness of the confederate
Quality of essay
Attributive (measured): Variables that cannot be manipulated, but are inherent properties.
AKA "organismic variables."
Gender of confederate
Age of subject
Latent VariablesLatent variables are variables that cannot be directly
measured.
Latent variables are “emergent” – they arise from the joint association of more particular, measurable variables.
Latent variables are sometimes referred to as “factors”
Factor analysis is method used to discover and confirm latent variables.
Latent Variables in Feedback Study:
Essay Mechanics = ??????
????? = Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interestingpresentation, persuasive
Latent Variables in Feedback Study: Mechanics vs. Content
Mechanics: Spelling, grammar, word choice
Content: Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interestingpresentation, persuasive
SPSS Factor Analysis Results
Factor Loadings of Two Factor Measure: Social Support Opinion Survey
Social Support Opinion Survey (Harber, et al., JASP, 38, 1463-1505)
Hope Scale (Snyder et al., 1991, JPSP, 60, 570-585)