gun violence in the americas: local solutions to a ......global health april 21 ”gun violence in...

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Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a Hemispheric Challenge Violencia armada en las Américas: soluciones locales a un desafío hemisférico Dr. Rodrigo Guerrero Former Mayor Cali, Colombia Ex alcalde Kim Smith Director of Programs University of Chicago Crime Lab Directora de programas Ciera Walker Executive Director Live Free Chicago Directora ejecutiva Dr. Rodrigo Canales Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior Yale School of Management Profesor asociado de comportamiento organizacional Moderated by: [email protected] |@CUGHnews @CUGH_TAC |www.cugh.org Thursday, July 16, 2020 jueves, 16 de julio de 2020 1:00pm-2:30pm EDT Vaughn Crandall Co-Director California Partnership for Safe Communities Co-Director Las presentaciones serán en inglés con traducción simultánea en español

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Page 1: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a Hemispheric ChallengeViolencia armada en las Américas: soluciones locales a un desafío hemisférico

Dr. Rodrigo GuerreroFormer Mayor Cali, Colombia

Ex alcalde

Kim SmithDirector of Programs

University of Chicago Crime LabDirectora de programas

Ciera WalkerExecutive DirectorLive Free ChicagoDirectora ejecutiva

Dr. Rodrigo CanalesAssociate Professor of

Organizational BehaviorYale School of Management

Profesor asociado de comportamiento organizacional

Moderated by:

[email protected] |@CUGHnews@CUGH_TAC |www.cugh.org

Thursday, July 16, 2020jueves, 16 de julio de 2020

1:00pm-2:30pm EDT

Vaughn CrandallCo-Director

California Partnership for Safe CommunitiesCo-Director

Las presentaciones serán en inglés con traducción simultánea en español

Page 2: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Past webinars in this 2020 seriesDate Webinar Host

March 24

"Gun Violence in the Americas: Focus Mexico"Consortium of Universities for Global Health

April 21

”Gun Violence in Mexico and Central America: Challenges and the Path to Solutions"

Center for American Progress

May 14

"Arms Trafficking in the Americas" Stimson Center

May 28

"Regional Strategies to Stop the Flow and Use of Firearms in Mesoamerica"

Global Exchange

June 25

"Flow of Guns and Violence Against Women in Mexico and Central America"

Center for American Progress

July 9

“Assault Weapons Bans in the Americas” Newtown Action

Alliance

Network to Prevent Gun Violence in the Americashttps://stopusarmstomexico.org/resources/prevent-gun-violence-americas/#

Page 3: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

CUGH Gun Control Tracker

www.cugh.org/announcements/introducing-cughs-gun-control-

tracker

Citizens of the United States can view the CUGH

Gun Control Tracker to see their congressperson’s

position on gun safety, which we hope can inform decisions in future elections.

Page 4: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Local solutions to gun violence. The experience of Cali, Colombia

Rodrigo Guerrero V., MD., M. Sc. Hyg., Dr. PH Mayor of Cali, Colombia

1992 – 1995 and 2012 – 2015

Gun Violence in the Americas Webinar

1

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27.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Tasa

x 1

00

K h

abs.

Año

Colombia

Political violence

Political and Drug traffic

violence

Historical perspective of homiciderates in Colombia 1938-2014

2

Page 6: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Age-adjusted Mortality Rate due to Homicides by Sex and type of Weapon, 2010

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

Asia Pacific High…

Europe Western

Australasia

Asia East

Europe Central

North Africa-Middle…

Asia South

North America High…

SubSaharan Africa-…

Oceania

Asia Southeast

Asia Central

Latin America…

Sub Saharan Africa…

LatinAmericaAndean

Europe Eastern

Sub S Africa Central

Caribbean

Sub S Africa Southern

Latin America Tropical

Latin America Central

Firearm Sharp Other

Male

-1.0 4.0 9.0 14.0

Europe Western

Asia East

Asia Pacific High Income

Australasia

Europe Central

North Africa-Middle East

Asia South

Latin America Southern

Asia Central

North America High Income

Asia Southeast

LatinAmericaAndean

SubSaharan Africa-West

Sub Saharan Africa East

Sub Saharan Africa Central

Oceania

Latin America Tropical

Europe Eastern

Latin America Central

Caribbean

Sub Saharan Africa Southern

Firearm Sharp Other

Female

Rate per 100,000 male

Rate per 100,000 female

Source: IHME, 20123

Page 7: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

INEQUITYAND

POVERTY

CULTURAL FACTORS

ALCOHOL

AVAILABILITYOF

FIREARMS

DEFICIENTLAW

ENFORCEMENT

ORGANIZEDCRIME

CHILD ABUSEVIOLENCE

Theoreticalmodel

for addressingurban

violence

Cali applied a multifactorial approachto violence prevention and control

4

Page 8: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Risk factors associatedwith violence prevention and control

•Availability of firearms

•Alcohol consumption

•Cultural norms

•Organized crime

5

Page 9: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

79%

17% 4%

SHARP OBJECTS

Availability of firearms

OTHER

FIREARMS

Type of Weapon in HomicidesCali, 1993

6

Page 10: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Alcohol Consumption and Homicide

Blood and alcohol level of homicide victimsMedellin, 1980 – 1989

7

57 %

43 %

Page 11: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Restriction of alcohol sales in public places

▪ Weekdays 2 AM

▪ Weekends 3 AM

Restriction of firearms carrying permits, on evidence-based high-risk weekends

Evidence-based policies

8

Page 12: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Alcohol Consumption and Homicide

Restriction of alcohol sales in bars as a policy for controlling homicideCali, 2005 – 2008

9

• First tested in London, UK

• Replicated as a natural experiment in Cali

Evaluation of 3 decrees closing bars between:

Restrictive: 02:00am -10:00amModerate: 03:00am -10:00am

Lax: 04:00am -10:00am

Significant reductions in firearm-related mortality

Page 13: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Firearms

14 % less

Alcohol

+ guns

35 % less

Without interventions With interventions

Pe

rce

ntR

ed

uction

in

Ho

mic

ide

Evaluation

Alcohol and firearms restriction in Cali1994

10

Page 14: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

PROHIBITION TO CARRY FIREARMS CALI 2013

Source: Cali Observatory of Security.

Rates of Homicide per 100,000 population due to firearms, Cali. 1983-2018

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tasa

arm

a co

rto

pu

nza

nte

Tasa

arm

a d

e f

ue

go

ARMA DE FUEGO CORTOPUNZANTE

National Government restriction

Firearm Sharp objects

Fire

arm

rat

esSh

arp o

bje

ct rates

11

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“Firearms rest in peace” campaign Bogotá. 1995

• Pedagogical educational campaign to reduce firearm use and homicides

✓ Churches

✓ Educational Institutions

✓ Pedagogical strategies for sensitizing population in educational settings

CULTURAL REGULATION OF FIREARM USE

12

Page 16: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Firearm buy-out program in Bogotá 2003

ALCALDÍA MAYOR

DE BOGOTÁ D.C.

488 firearms,

10.264 ammunition

8 Hand grenades

Not formally evaluated13

Page 17: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

THANK YOU

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November 22, 2007

Page 20: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

REDIRECT PUBLIC

RESOURCES

DEMONSTRATION

OUR APPROACH

Page 21: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Gun violence in the US

• 41 gun homicides and 192 non-fatal gun injuries per day in US

• Young black men die from homicide at 24 times the rate of their white counterparts

• Social cost of gun violence on order of $100 billion per year, or ~90% of social cost of violence

Sources: Centers for Disease Control, NEDS, Cook & Ludwig 2000 4

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60.3

50.4

38.9

22.3 20.718.6

11.9

6.33.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ho

mic

ides p

er

100,0

00 (

2018)

St. Louis Baltimore Detroit Philadelphia Chicago Milwaukee Houston Los Angeles

New York

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)

Chicago homicide rate in the middle of other big cities

5

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201517.5

201627.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

768 Homicide Victims

Chicago homicide rate, 1985-2016

6

Year

Ho

mic

ides p

er

100,0

00

Page 24: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

13%

58%

19%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under 18 18-29 30-39 40+

Ages of Shooting Victims (2016)

Service gap for the majority of shooting victims

Many programs offered to youth

• Aftercare

• Becoming a Man (B.A.M.)

• Enlace Chicago

• Gang School Safety Team

• One Summer Chicago

• One Summer PLUS

• R.I.S.E.

• Street and School Intervention Program

7

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)

Page 25: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

13%

58%

19%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under 18 18-29 30-39 40+

Ages of Shooting Victims (2016)

Service gap for the majority of shooting victims

Many programs offered to youth

• Aftercare

• Becoming a Man (B.A.M.)

• Enlace Chicago

• Gang School Safety Team

• One Summer Chicago

• One Summer PLUS

• R.I.S.E.

• Street and School Intervention Program

But 87% of shooting victims 18+

8

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)

Page 26: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Evidence that CBT and jobs can reduce violence involvement

7

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READI Chicago

10

Page 28: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Programming

RELENTLESS ENGAGEMENTIntensive outreach that won’t give up on difficult-to-engage participants

CAREER OPPORTUNITIESIncreased responsibilities, pay raises, sector-based training

COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPYCBT infused throughout READI including group sessions

SUPPORT SERVICESOne-on-one development sessions, referrals to critical supports

11

Page 29: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Shooting and homicide victimizations per 100 people over 20 months

READI

Control Group

READI Neighborhoods,

Men 18-34

Chicago,

Men 18-34

Chicago,

All

What would have happened without READI?

12

Page 30: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

We are learning a lot about their experiences

58%Have children

79%Have been a victim

of a violent crime

14%Are housing insecure

37%Have ever been shot

75%Have lost a family

member to gun vioence

95%Have ever been

arrested

13

Page 31: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Thank you

For more information about the University of Chicago Crime Lab and Education Lab:

Kim Smith - [email protected]

Roseanna Ander - [email protected]

Page 32: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

REDUCING URBAN GUN VIOLENCE:

WHAT WORKS?

LESSONS LEARNED AND INSIGHTS FOR

THE FIELD AND PUBLIC POLICY

CUGH Webinar: July 2020

Page 33: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

OVERVIEW

1. Brief Framing and Background (CPSC)

2. Our Approach and The Evidence

3. Case Study: Oakland Ceasefire

4. Early Lessons in Mexico City

Page 34: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

CPSC Background

1. Our mission is to help cities advance a public safety “triple

bottom line” – reduce serious violence, build police-community

trust, achieve better outcomes for highest risk young people.

2. We engage in long-term (3-5 years) partnerships with cities to apply

evidence based practices to these durable safety problems.

3. To do this, we help cities:

a. Understand their violence problem (problem definition)

b. Develop and manage violence reduction strategies

c. Develop effective outreach and intervention approaches

d. Pursue police-community trust building

e. Apply performance management to this problem

f. Research and impact evaluations of local efforts.

3

Page 35: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

The Basics: Reducing Gun Violence

1. Gun violence is the most serious safety problem that we face in

communities.

1. It is a problem that we can do something about in the near-term.

1. Across models and communities, there are certain “key ingredients”

that are essential:

• Political will and leadership (a shared strategy)

• Using an evidence-based strategy

• Understanding the problem and focusing on those at highest risk of

violence now

• Building devoted, sustainable infrastructure for reducing violence

• Being accountable for violence reduction outcomes across partners

and sectors

Page 36: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

To reduce violence, CPSC works primarily from the “focused

deterrence” / Ceasefire framework, for several reasons:

• The largest body of research evidence supports it’s effectiveness in

reducing violence. (20/25 evaluations, 2 meta-reviews).

• It has consistently been shown to reduce community violence and

individual recidivism. It is an evidence based strategy.

• It is an effective way to mobilize police, justice system, community and

social service actors to reduce gun violence in the near-term.

Leading Models and Research Evidence (1):

Operation Ceasefire / Focused Deterrence

Page 37: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Study name Outcome Statistics for each study Std diff in means and 95% CI

Std diff Standard in means error p-Value

Lowell PSN Gun assaults 1.186 0.207 0.000

Indianapolis VRS Total homicides 1.039 0.283 0.000

NH Longevity Combined 0.936 0.324 0.004

Nashville DMI Combined 0.838 0.320 0.009

Stockton, CA Gun homicides 0.763 0.157 0.000

Rochester Ceasefire Combined 0.675 0.298 0.023

NOLA GVRS Combined 0.656 0.283 0.020

Boston Ceasefire I Combined 0.645 0.241 0.008

KC NoVA Combined 0.607 0.322 0.060

LA Ceasefire Combined 0.565 0.351 0.108

Rockford DMI Combined 0.521 0.285 0.067

Boston Ceasefire II Combined 0.503 0.068 0.000

Chicago GVRS Total gang shootings 0.414 0.157 0.008

Cincinnati IRV GMI homicides 0.352 0.224 0.115

Glasgow CIRV Combined 0.298 0.133 0.025

Guntersville DMI Combined 0.248 0.225 0.272

High Point DMI Combined 0.243 0.126 0.054

Newark Ceasefire Gun shot wounds 0.225 0.160 0.159

Chicago PSN Combined 0.181 0.061 0.003

Roanoke DMI Combined 0.079 0.082 0.331

Seattle DMI All crime 0.074 0.035 0.032

Peoria DMI Combined 0.037 0.300 0.901

Ocala DMI All crime -0.001 0.055 0.985

Montgomery DMI All crime -0.051 0.116 0.661

0.383 0.061 0.000

-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Favors Control Favors Treatment

Mean Effect Sizes for Study Outcomes

Random Effects Model, Q =122.568, df = 23, p<0.000

Systematic Review of

Focused DeterrenceBraga, Weisburd, and Turchan (2018),

Criminology and Public Policy

Combined Mean

ES = .383

GVRS Mean ES

= .657

• Review identified 24

rigorous evaluations

with control groups

• Overall, focused

deterrence programs

were associated with

moderate crime

reductions

• Group Violence

Reduction Strategies

were associated with

larger crime

reductions.

Page 38: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

The core, uniting features of the effective or promising models are:

1. They all focus on people at the very highest risk of serious violence now,

2. They all have a primary goal of changing the decisions and behavior of

those at very highest risk to reduce shootings and homicides in the near-

term (as victim or perpetrator)

3. They all work in collaboration with other system and community partners.

4. Most of them are engaged in ongoing research and evaluation to

understand what is/isn’t working and why.

Research and Practice Take Aways

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Page 40: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Murder Rate per 100,000: Oakland v. California

26.78

20.57

23.21

36.4

30.3

28.6

25.7

23

26.3

31.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oakland

California

United States

Page 41: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Oakland’s Failed Attempts to Reduce Violence

Oakland had previously made numerous attempts to reduce this

chronic violence problem

• Youth Curfew

• Gang Injunction

• Large service and outreach investments (Measure Y, private

investments)

• Poorly designed/managed attempts at “Ceasefire” in 2006, 2009

• Numerous waves of aggressive, “zero tolerance” area-based

enforcement

Take Away: These efforts were not informed by a thorough

analysis/understanding of the problem; were poorly managed; did not

constitute an effective citywide strategy.

Page 42: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Oakland Ceasefire Goals

1. Reduce shootings and homicides citywide.

1. Decrease recidivism and improve outcomes for

those at highest risk of violence.

2. Strengthen police-community relations and trust.

THE “TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE” – GOALS AND A

UNIFYING SET OF VALUES.

Page 43: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

The Oakland Results Are Promising But Far From Guaraeed (2)

What the public and policy makers thought: Violence primarily

driven by juveniles, drugs disputes and economic motives.

What the analysis revealed:

• Homicide primarily driven by specific running group/gang

conflicts and personal disputes between group members.

• Those at very highest risk primarily group-involved adult men of

color (the average age is 30)

• With heavy justice system involvement (averaging 12 prior

arrests at the time of homicide, 7 for felonies) and social

connections to actively violent street groups

• Only 10% of homicide involved juveniles, only 13% of

homicides had any connection to drugs.

Problem Analysis Insights and Implications

Page 44: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

people400k

people20k

250-350people

Focus on the

very high risk

individuals

OAKLAND’S

POPULATION

CRIMINAL

JUSTICE

POPULATION

VERY HIGH RISK

POPULATION

Page 45: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Oakland Ceasefire Performance Management:

1. PD Shooting Reviews – identify VHR people, hottest conflicts,

enforcement and intervention priorities.

1. Coordination Meetings – Human Services Department, OPD,

community partners develop near term strategy for these

particular people and conflicts – mobilize community

intervention partners.

1. Performance Review Meetings – Partners review citywide

shootings trends; key program activities; relative to annual and

two-month benchmarks

Page 46: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

125 90 79 83 85 72 68

553

471420

342 307281 277

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shootings

Homicides

345353

CEASEFIRE Strategy

Progress in Oakland 2012-2018

678

561

499

425392

*Ceasefire Partnership began on October 18,

2012

Page 47: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Monthly Counts of Gun Homicides in Oakland, 2010 - 2017 CROSS-CITY

RESULTS

Estimated

31.5%

reduction

controlling for

other trends

and seasonal

variations

(p<.05).

Only 2 of 12

comparison

cities

experienced

significant

reductions

during this time

period

(Stockton, San

Francisco).

Ceasefire

Implementation

Page 48: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

GMI V. NON-GMI

GMI shootings

decreased by 43.2%

while non-GMI

shootings decreased by

only 23.2%.

QUASI-EXP RESULTS

Estimated 27.0%

reduction in shootings

by treated gangs

relative to untreated

gangs (p<.05).

Estimated 26.0%

reduction in shootings

by vicariously-treated

gangs relative to

untreated gangs

(p<.05).

Page 49: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Early Lessons and Insights from

Mexico City Demonstration Projet

1. The super concentration of risk is very similar and the violence

dynamics are very familiar.

2. Very little infrastructure exists to focus on this highest risk population

– both within justice system and community / service stakeholders.

1. Implementation remains difficult: “Ceasefire” requires local actors to work

differently and together — often for the first time. This is always difficult.

• Systemic challenges with Mexico’s legal and justice system and the lack

of community intervention programs compound these challenges.

1. Impact and sustainability will requires organizational change: Political

will and quality implementation are the key ingredients.

2. Overall, the opportunities and challenges are more similar to U.S. context

than they are different.

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Page 51: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

ORGANIZED CRIME VS. PUBLIC SAFETY

Mexico and the U.S.: drugs, arms, trade,

criminal organizations

Page 52: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

WHAT SHOULD WE DO INSTEAD?

Mexico and the U.S.: drugs, arms, trade,

criminal organizations

Concentrating efforts through evidence-based interventions can have substantial and long-

lasting effects

Crime is concentrated in a small number of

high risk places

Page 53: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

IMPLEMENTING CEASEFIRE IN

MEXICO CITY

Page 54: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

WHAT MAKES MEXICO DIFFERENT?

Justice system: prosecution (Fiscalía) and Ministry of Security

Lack of trust and credibility in institutions: rampant corruption andimpunity.

Culture of non-collaboration between institutions.

Presence of criminal organizations

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ADAPTATION

Adapt the model to the Mexican context withthe California Partnership for SafeCommunities and the Ministry of CitizenSecurity.

Pre-analysis of the problem in six policesectors to select a pilot sector.

Identify work teams and specific profiles.

Begin the process of changing mindset (a newway of approaching homicides).

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SELECTION: “PLATEROS” "

Out of the six sectors, selected “Plateros”.

260,000 inhabitants divided in 86neighborhoods.

Plateros has among the top ten homiciderates in Mexico City.

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PROBLEM ANALYSIS

Analyzed 105 homicides from September2017 to September 2019.

Identified more than 18 groups that generatethe greatest amount of lethal violence.

Identified close to 505 people involved inlethal violence (victims and perpetrators).

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HOMICIDE TREND IN PLATEROS

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Information and Analysis

Project Management

Undersecretary for Citizen Participationand Crime Prevention

Ceasefire Unit

Persecution andProcurement

PGJ

Social Services and Community

Component

Ministry of Government

Deputy Attorney General's Office for the Attention of Victims of Crime and Community

Services

SSC

SSIP

SECGOB - Penit

UIF

Plateros Unit

DSE

PGJ - MP

PGJ - PDI

PGJ

PBI

C2

F. Femicides

F. Homicides

F. Drug trafficking

Ministry of Citizen Security

SPPD DSE

WORKGROUP - CEASEFIRE UNIT

Ministry of Health

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WORKGROUP - CEASEFIRE UNIT

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INCIDENT REVIEW

Ministry of Citizen Security● Ceasefire Unit● School Safety Unit● Undersecretary of Information and Police Intelligence● Undersecretary for Citizen Participation and Crime Prevention● Sector Police● Police of Alvaro Obregon

Attorney General of Mexico City● Central Investigative Prosecutor's Office● Deputy Attorney General's Office for the Attention of Victims of

Crime and Community Services● Central Preliminary Investigation Department

Penitentiary System● General Directorate of Specialized Care for Adolescents● Executive Directorate of Procedural Security Agents● Information Control and Statistics Directorate

Decentralized Agencies● Command and Control Center West (C2)

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TESTING INTER-INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION

Case: On January 11th, two boys (age 14) were found shot dead in Plateros.

Direct communication: - Contact was made with one of the boys’ mother by the Ministry of Citizen Security.

○ Contact was possible thanks to the cooperation between the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Citizen Security (which, in parallel, facilitated the creation of a hospital-based violence intervention program).

- The mother confessed that her husband (the boy’s dad), as well as other family members, wanted to take revenge since they had information about who was responsible.

Social services:- The Ministry of Citizen Security offered psychological support to the boy’s family. An

external psychologist accompanied by staff from the Office of Violence Prevention of the Ministry of Citizen Security offered group therapy to the family (mother, father, and siblings).

○ During family therapy, a non-violence message was directed to them with the purpose of preventing future retaliation (or any kind of violence) and to ensure that the murders would be investigated.

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TESTING INTER-INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION

Justice Component:

- Due to the coordination between the Ministry of Citizen Security and the Attorney General,the boy’s mother was referred to the Deputy Attorney General's Office for the Attention ofVictims of Crime and Community Services.○ A legal advisor was assigned to her case in order to ensure that the evidence and information

gathered during the Incident Reviews will be used during the investigation.

- A Public Prosecutor (Ministerio Público) was assigned to the case to lead the murderinvestigations. Currently, the suspect of the murder was identified and the publicprosecutor is collecting the evidence for his detention.

- The group connected to this murder is being investigated by different police unitsgathering information to identify the suspect and his network.

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VIOLENCE VICTIMS SOCIAL SERVICES SUPPORT

Cases Beneficiaries Supports Categories

11 45 140 Food Containment and emotional supportThanatological supportFuneral ExpensesGroup therapiesHospital visitsLegal adviceRemote health care ScholarshipsOfficial documents Addiction treatmentReferral to city programs: Women, Art, Youth, Child Rights, Sports

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HOW DO WE EVALUATE ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE?

To evaluate the organizational components ofCeasefire (building trust, communication,information-sharing, cooperation…), we arecurrently conducting

● Semi-structured interviews withmembers of the Ceasefire unitand “controls”.

● Close-ended questionnaires withmembers of the Ceasefire unitand “controls”.

● Following group dynamics in theweekly meetings through non-participant observationinstruments.

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Similarities, Differences

Dynamics of violence, concentration of violence in groups and subgroups,characteristics of individuals and needs, etc. – remarkably similar

Institutional rigidities, starting points, mindsets – very similar

Reliability, speed, nature of “levers” – evenness of institutional capacity: VERYdifferent. Requires creativity, patience, flexibility. **Process** not “features”

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ENOUGH IS

ENOUGH

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2016 Homicides

•Chicago 762 Homicides

•New York 334 Homicides

•Los Angeles 294 Homicides

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Office of Violence Prevention Chicago 2017

• Office of Public Health

• 2.4 Million Dollar Budget

• Cyber Bullying, Teen dating, and other areas of violence not dedicated to gun violence

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Which Tactic • Law and Order •Hire more police • Invest in punitive

approaches• Support policies and

practices that criminalize black and brown communities

•Public Health Approach •Community

Investment• Trauma Informed,

focused, and centered •Reconciliation

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Which Tactic • Law and Order •Hire more police • Invest in punitive

approaches• Support polices and

practices that criminalize black and brown communities

•Public Health Approach •Community

Investment• Trauma Informed,

focused, and centered •Reconciliation

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Recommendations

•Office of Gun Violence Prevention created through municipal code

•Direct funding toward communities most impacted by gun violence •Over 60% of homicides occur in

15 neighborhoods (77 in Chicago)

•Coordinate a public strategy

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Recommendations

• Invest a significant amount of funding into community-based strategies, mental health, and economic vitality of black and communities

• Adopt a public health model and education campaign. • Root causes of gun violence racism

and poverty

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DEFUND the Police

?

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Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a Hemispheric ChallengeViolencia armada en las Américas: soluciones locales a un desafío hemisférico

Dr. Rodrigo GuerreroFormer Mayor Cali, Colombia

Ex alcalde

Kim SmithDirector of Programs

University of Chicago Crime LabDirectora de programas

Ciera WalkerExecutive DirectorLive Free ChicagoDirectora ejecutiva

Dr. Rodrigo CanalesAssociate Professor of

Organizational BehaviorYale School of Management

Profesor asociado de comportamiento organizacional

Moderated by:

[email protected] |@CUGHnews@CUGH_TAC |www.cugh.org

Thursday, July 16, 2020jueves, 16 de julio de 2020

1:00pm-2:30pm EDT

Vaughn CrandallCo-Director

California Partnership for Safe CommunitiesCo-Director

Las presentaciones serán en inglés con traducción simultánea en español

Page 77: Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a ......Global Health April 21 ”Gun Violence in Mexico and entral America: hallenges and the Path to Solutions" Center for American

Gun Violence in the Americas: Local Solutions to a Hemispheric ChallengeViolencia armada en las Américas: soluciones locales a un desafío hemisférico

Dr. Rodrigo GuerreroFormer Mayor Cali, Colombia

Ex alcalde

Kim SmithDirector of Programs

University of Chicago Crime LabDirectora de programas

Ciera WalkerExecutive DirectorLive Free ChicagoDirectora ejecutiva

Dr. Rodrigo CanalesAssociate Professor of

Organizational BehaviorYale School of Management

Profesor asociado de comportamiento organizacional

Moderated by:

[email protected] |@CUGHnews@CUGH_TAC |www.cugh.org

Questions and Answers

Vaughn CrandallCo-Director

California Partnership for Safe CommunitiesCo-Director

Las presentaciones serán en inglés con traducción simultánea en español