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TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Emerging Diseases Under Climate Change:
Current Knowledge and Synergistic Solutions
for Health and Sustainability
Jean-Francois Guégan, William B. Karesh, Catherine Machalaba, Peter Daszak
FutureEarth ecoHEALTH, New York, NY, USA
Sponsored by the Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability comprising the International Council for Science (ICSU), the International Social Science Council (ISSC), the Belmont Forum of funding agencies, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations University (UNU), and
the World Meteorological Organization.
ecoHEALTH explores the links between global environmental change and health for the planet and society. There is growing understanding around the ways human-mediated environmental changes (e.g. land use change, wildlife trade, deforestation, climate change, human migration) significantly affect the health of wild and domestic animals, plants, and humans, resulting in both infectious and non-communicable diseases. By exploring the economics of emerging diseases, relationship between infectious diseases and biodiversity, impacts of climate change and demography on health, and ways to leverage health considerations to address underlying drivers of conservation threats, the ecoHEALTH project seeks to understand the health implications of current and anticipated global environmental change to identify solutions to promote both human health and ecosystem integrity. ecoHEALTH was launched by DIVERSITAS (DEBED), an international research programme on biodiversity science. ecoHEALTH became a core project of Future Earth in August 2014.
• > 60-62% of human infectious pathogens are of animal origin
– Health Burden: ~One billion cases and over a million deaths each year globally
– Current Trends: Majority of recently-emerging zoonoses are from
wildlife – Examples: HIV, SARS, Ebola, Marburg, Avian Influenza, Nipah virus
– Cost: Hundreds of billions of US$ over past two decades – Dynamic: Emerging disease can become endemic
Emerging Disease- Relevance
Daszak et al. PNAS (2013); 110:3681-3688
©2013 by National Academy of Sciences
Nipah Virus - Risk Projection
Disease Emergence – and Spread
Nipah virus, Malaysia, 1998-99
Pulliam et al. J. Roy. Soc. Interface (2011)
Kilpatrick and Randolph, The Lancet (2012).
Global Avian Network- Daily
Passenger Capacity: red= thousands yellow= hundreds blue= tens
Need for Better Integration
Interdisciplinarity and infectious diseases: an Ebola case study Vanessa O. Ezenwa, Anne-Helene Prieur-Richard, Benjamin Roche, Xavier Bailly, Pierre Becquart, Gabriel E. García-Peña, Parviez R. Hosseini, Felicia Keesing, Annapaola Rizzoli, Gerardo Suzán, Marco Vignuzzi, Marion Vittecoq, James N. Mills and Jean-François Guégan
Ecosystem dynamics, viral evolution, and human epidemics need to be better understood
Research and Policy Opportunities
• One Health approach
– Inter-disciplinary research for societal solutions: ecology, climate/weather, veterinary medicine, agriculture, public health, development, economics, anthropology
• Prevention is better than cure: tackle underlying drivers of disease emergence
– Many drivers also overlap with contributors to climate change and biodiversity loss
• Communicate and leverage value of prevention
– Health outcomes are tangible for the public and policy makers
– Calculate value of health-promoting ecosystem services
• And financial risk/loss of their disruption
• Proactive consideration of risks: Health impact assessment
– Given acute and long-term links, need integrated understanding of potential health, environmental, and social impacts accountability and mitigation opportunities
The Future of Emerging Diseases Under Climate Change:
Current Knowledge and Synergistic Solutions
for Health and Sustainability
For questions please contact:
Catherine Machalaba, Future Earth ecoHEALTH Science Officer