gs outlook

8/13/2019 GS Outlook

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Economic Outlook

Jan HatziusChief Economist

[email protected]

Moving Over the Hump

February 2013 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research


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GS Global ECS Research 1

1

A Gradual Acceleration in Global Growth

USA 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.0Japan -0.6 2.0 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.2Euro Area 1.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.9 1.3 1.5

Germany 3.1 0.9 0.7 1.9 2.1 2.2France 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.5Italy 0.6 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 0.9 1.2Spain 0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -0.2 1.0 1.8

UK 0.9 0.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.6China 9.3 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.2

India 7.5 5.4 6.5 7.2 7.2 7.5Brazil 2.7 1.0 3.5 4.3 4.0 4.0Russia 4.3 3.4 3.8 4.8 4.3 3.1Developed Markets 1.7 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.5Emerging Markets 6.9 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.5 6.4World 3.8 3.0 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.3

Source: GS Global ECS Research.

Real GDP Growth

% yoy 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


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2

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EMDMWorld

Forecast

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

Output Gaps:


Spare Capacity in DM But Not EM


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3

Actual Data Growth consensus from Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts (February 2013)Inflation consensus from Bloomberg

Fed consensus from Survey of Primary Dealers (December 2012)

Key US Economic Indicators:GS vs. Consensus

Source: Dept. of Commerce. Bloomberg. FRB New York. GS Global ECS Research.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fed Funds Rate

GS

Consensus

Percent Percent

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2013 2014 2015 2016

Fed Securities Holdings

GSConsensus

Trillions of dollars Trillions of dollars

2011 2012 2013 2014-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Growth (Real GDP)

Range*GSConsensus

Ann . % chg. Ann . % chg.

* Top 10 avg - bottom 10 avg.

Forecast

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2011 2012 2013 2014

Inflation (Core PCE)

Range*GSConsensus

Percent change, year ago Percent chang e, year ago

Forecast

* Top 10 avg-bottom 10 avg.


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4Temp erature CheckCurrent Activity Indicator Slows in January

Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

HousingEmploymentConsumer Industry

Percent change, annual rate Percent change, annual rate

* First principal component of 25 key weekly and monthly US economic indicators.Source: GS Global ECS Research.

Current Activity Indicator (CAI)

2011 2012 2013


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5Temp erature CheckUpside Data Surprises Have Stopped

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

Standard deviation Standard deviation

US-MAP Surprise Index*

* Weighted index of US economic data surprises, linearly weighted 3-month average.Source: GS Global ECS Research.

2011 2012 2013


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6US Growth Out loo kPrivate Boost, Public Drag

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Private Sector Financial BalanceGeneral Government Budget Balance

Source: Department of Commerce. GS Global ECS Research.


1960-2011 Avg = 1.9%


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7US Growth Out loo kFiscal Drag Peaks in Mid-2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

TaxSpending (Ex Sequester)Sequester

Impact of Federal Fiscal Policy onReal GDP Growth:

Percentage points Percentage points

2012 2013 2014



9/30GS Global ECS Research 8

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Profit Margin, Domestic Industries (left)Growth Rate of Real Private Capital Stock (right)

Percent Percent

Source: Department of Commerce.

US Growth Out loo kCapital Spending Looks Very Profitable



9US Growth Out loo kHomebuilding Has a Long Way to Rise

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Household Formation

Housing Starts

Thousands Thousands

* Assumed demolition rate of 300,000 per year.Source: Department of Commerce. GS Global ECS Research.

HouseholdFormationForecast

Housing Starts

Demolitions*



10US Growth Out loo kExcess Housing Supply Has Fallen Sharply

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Homeowner Vacancy Rate*

Percent Percent

* Vacant homes for sale in percent of housing stock for owner occupation.Source: Department of Commerce.

1980-2005 Average = 1.6%



11

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Unemployment Gap

Percent of labor force Percent of labor force

Participation Gap

Source: Department of Labor. GS Global ECS Research.

Labo r Market Slack and Its Im pl icat ion sEmployment Still Far Below Potential



12

-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Average Hourly Earnings

Employment Cost Index*

Unit Labor Costs**

Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago

* Private industry workers. ** Nonfarm business sector.Source: Department of Labor.

Labo r Market Slack and Its Im pl icat ion sWages and Unit Labor Costs Still Weak



13Labo r Market Slack and Its Im pl icat ion sImplication #1: Profit Margins Expand

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Actual

Forecast

Percent Percent

** After-tax adjusted profits as percent of GDP.Source: Department of Commerce. GS Global ECS Research.

Corporate Profit Margins*:



14Labo r Market Slack and Its Im pl icat ion sImplication #2: Low Core Inflation

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

ActualFed ForecastGS Forecast

Source: Department of Commerce. Federal Reserve Board.

Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago

Core PCE Inflation:

Fed Inflation Target = 2.0%



15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12Unemployment (%)

Liftoff from Funds Rate = 0


Inflation (%) Inflation (%)

December 2012

Optimal Control Approach

Current Threshold Guidance

Pre-CrisisTaylor Rule

Fed Pol icy Stays EasyVisualizing the Shifts in Fed Policy



16

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

10-year Term Premium (left)*10-year Yield (right)

Percentage points Percentage points

*As estimated by the Kim-Wright Term Structure Model.

Source: Federal Reserve Board. GS Global ECS Research.

A Gradual Inc rease in B on d YieldsThe Bond Term Premium



17

Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

QE3+Mid-2015Twist 22014 Fwd GuidanceTwist2013 Fwd GuidanceQE2Reinvest MBSQE1

Basis points Basis points

2009 2010 2011 2012Note: Assumes no change in expectations between announcements.Source: GS Global ECS Research.

Total Portfolio Balance Effect on10yr Yield Term Premium:

A Gradual Inc rease in B on d YieldsIs Unlikely to Rise Quickly as QE Persists



18The Truth abou t the Defic i tDeficit Should Decline in Coming Years

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

ActualGS Forecast


US Federal Budget Deficit:

Source: CBO. GS Global ECS Research.

Forecast



19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Social Security

Healthcare

Other NoninterestSpending

Percent of GDP Percent of GDPCBO's Long-Term Alternative Fiscal Scenario

Actual Projected

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Total PrimarySpending Revenues

The Truth abou t the Defic i tHealthcare Holds the Key



20Wh ere Shale MattersEnergy Supply Gets More Elastic



21

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 6 9 -

' 7 4 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 8 7 -

' 9 2 )

U S ( ' 1 1 -

' 1 6 )

R u s s

i a ( ' 9 9 -

' 0 4 )

I r a n

( ' 6 8 -

' 7 3 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 7 5 -

' 8 0 )

U S ( ' 6 5 -

' 7 0 )

L i b y a

( ' 6 5 -

' 7 0 )

I r a q

( ' 9 4 -

' 9 9 )

K u w a

i t ( ' 9 1 -

' 9 6 )

M e x

i c o

( ' 7 7 -

' 8 2 )

N i g e r i a

( ' 6 8 -

' 7 3 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 9 9 -

' 0 4 )

I r a q

( ' 8 3 -

' 8 8 )

U K ( ' 7 5 -

' 8 0 )

I r a q

( ' 7 4 -

' 7 9 )

I r a n

( ' 8 6 -

' 9 1 )

N o r w a y

( ' 9 1 -

' 9 6 )

U A E ( ' 8 6 -

' 9 1 )

U A E ( ' 6 9 -

' 7 4 )

A n g o

l a ( ' 0 3 -

' 0 8 )

5 year Increase in Oil Production


Millions of barrels per day Millions of barrels per day

Wh ere Shale MattersA Big Supply Boost in Absolute Terms



22

0

25

0

25

K u w a

i t ( ' 9 1 -

' 9 6 )

A n g o

l a ( ' 0 3 -

' 0 8 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 6 9 -

' 7 4 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 8 7 -

' 9 2 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 7 5 -

' 8 0 )

U A E ( ' 8 6 -

' 9 1 )

R u s s

i a ( ' 9 9 -

' 0 4 )

I r a n

( ' 8 6 -

' 9 1 )

N o r w a y ( '

9 1 -

' 9 6 )

S a u

d i A r a

b i a ( ' 9 9 -

' 0 4 )

M e x

i c o

( ' 7 7 -

' 8 2 )

U A E ( ' 6 9 -

' 7 4 )

U K ( ' 7 5 -

' 8 0 )

U S ( ' 1 1 -

' 1 6 )

5-year Increase in Oil Production

131 84 78 35 27



Wh ere Shale MattersBut a Much Smaller One Relative to US GDP



23

FiscalCrisis

Economic

Crisis

Banking

Crisis

Bank Solvency& LiquidityConcerns

FiscalAusterity

ReducedLoan Supply

Lower TaxReceipts

ExpectedBailout Costs

Loan Losses

The Europ ean Cris isECB Addresses Part of the Vicious Cycle

LTRO

ESM & OMT



24

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.0099.099.2

99.4

99.6

99.8

100.0

100.2

100.4

100.6

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

GSFCI* (left)

Euro Risk** (right, inverted)

2010 2011 2012

Worse

* Wt avg of riskless int rates, sp reads, equities, FX and house prices, based on eff ects on1-yr fwd US GDP growth.** First p rincipal component of European bank stocks, bank CDS, svrgn CDS, and EUR/USD cross-currency basis spread.Source: GS Global ECS Research.

Index Index

2013

The Europ ean Cris isECB Has Reduced Spillover Risk



25

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

GermanyFranceItalySpain

Tighter

Financial Conditions Index:


Index (2007=100) Index (2007=100)

The Europ ean Cris isPeriphery FCIs Only a Bit Easier



26

Germany France Italy Spain-1.8

-1.6-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

-1.8

-1.6-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2Percentage points

2012

2013

2014

Percentage points


Fiscal Drag on Real GDP Growth:

The Europ ean Cris isFiscal Drag Intensifies in Spain and France


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27

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

GermanyFranceIrelandItalySpainGreecePortugal

Unit Labor Costs:

Index (2000Q1=100) Index (2000Q1=100)

Source: National Statistics. Haver Analytics. GS Global ECS Research.

The Europ ean Cris isULCs Have Only Adjusted Partially


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28

Key Numbers in the US Economic Outlook

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013(f) (f) (f) (f) (f) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

OUTPUT AND SPENDINGReal GDP 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.0 1.3 3.1 -0.1 2.8 1.5 2.0 2.5

Consumer Expenditure 2.5 1.9 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.0

Residential Fixed Investment -1.4 11.9 13.7 14.8 13.4 12.5 20.6 8.4 13.6 15.3 13.9 12.5 15.0 15.0

Business Fixed Investment 8.6 7.7 5.7 9.0 7.5 5.8 7.5 3.6 -1.8 8.4 5.0 6.5 8.6 9.3

Structures 2.8 9.6 2.5 7.0 5.9 5.0 12.8 0.6 0.0 -1.1 3.4 4.0 5.0 7.5

Equipment & Software 11.0 6.9 6.9 9.8 8.1 6.1 5.4 4.8 -2.6 12.5 5.6 7.5 10.0 10.0

Federal Government -2. 8 -2. 2 -5.3 -5.9 -2.5 -1.2 -4.2 -0.2 9.5 - 15.0 2.5 -12.5 -10.0 -5.0

State and Local Government -3. 4 -1. 3 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.0

Net Exports ($bn, '05) -408 -406 -393 -411 -433 -445 -416 -407 -395 -404 -393 -389 -392 -396

Inventory Investment ($bn, '05) 31 45 42 49 57 57 57 41 60 20 38 45 43 43

Industrial Production, Mfg 4.3 4.1 0.9 2.8 3.7 3.1 9.8 0.7 -0.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

INFLATION (% ch, yr/yr)Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.1 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7

Core CPI 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

Core PCE* 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5

Unit Labor Costs 1.9 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.4

LABOR MARKETUnemployment Rate (%) 8.9 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6

FINANCIAL SECTORFederal Funds** (%) 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.13

3-Month LIBOR (%) 0.07 0.16 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.50 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.30 0.30 Treasury Yield Curve** (%)

2-Year Note 0.56 0.31 0.40 0.60 1.50 2.00 0.47 0.47 0.39 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.40

5-Year Note 0.26 0.26 1.20 1.75 2.50 3.00 0.34 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.58 0.90 1.00 1.20

10-Year Note 0.89 0.70 2.20 2.75 3.25 3.75 1.02 0.71 0.67 0.70 1.35 2.00 2.10 2.20

30-Year Bond 1.98 1.72 3.25 3.65 4.00 4.25 2.17 1.62 1.72 1.72 2.39 3.05 3.05 3.25

FOREIGN SECTORCurrent Account (% of GDP) -3.1 -3.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.5 -3.8 -3.5 -3.0 -2.7 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0

Euro ($/)** 1.32 1.31 1.40 1.40 1.35 1.25 1.32 1.25 1.29 1.31 1.36 1.40 1.40 1.40

Yen (/$)** 78 84 87 87 100 110 82 79 78 84 85 87 87 87

* PCE = Personal consumption expenditures. ** Denotes end of period. *** Profits are after taxes as reported in the national income.

and product accounts (NIPA), adjusted to r emove inventory profits and depreciation distortions.NOTE: Published figures are in bold.


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29

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