Group 4: Wildfire Scientific

Investigation

BY:Danielle RuoffTaylor Roney

Rennosuke HankawaMolly Merkert

Bethany WeaverAshley Knapp

Testable QuestionIn Colorado, which of the three most popular

tree breeds would burn the fastest and hottest? Blue Spruce, Silver Maple, or Quaking Aspen.

A study for early detectionHelp predict path of wildfire by speed and heatAim is to make a program to track and predict

the behaviorThis should be funded for less destruction of

environments and earlier evacuation

HypothesisIf a forest fire is started in Colorado, then the heavily

populated areas with Blue Spruce trees would produce the most heat compared to some common tree types in Colorado (Refer to the Common Tree Types in Colorado list). This is because the Blue Spruce trees commonly have very low lying branches and range from 70 to 115 feet tall. This allows for surface and crown fires to easily spread between trees. Our preliminary study was on a very small scale so the results are not as accurate as they could be on a larger scale. In the preliminary study, the aspen appeared to burn fast and hotter, but the spruce would be different in a larger study.

Supporting Work Blue Spruce Silver Maple Quaking Aspen

Trial 1

Speed (Seconds) 135±0.5 121±0.5 75±0.5

Temp (˚F) 500±0.5 750±0.5 900±0.5

Weight (grams) 3.59±0.05 3.06±0.05 3.03±0.05

Notes* matches: doesn't light * Handheld: Smoke and little burning * Bunsen Burner: hard to light * Orange Flame * Will not burn on its own * faint smoke *

* whistling and cackling * lots of sparks (most) * independently flaming * faint

•Sparks * Catches weak flame independently * faint smoke

Trial 2

Speed (seconds) 92±0.5 106±0.5 77±0.5

Temp (˚F) 854±0.5 854±0.5 higher than 1000

Weight (grams) 1.13±0.05 4.38±0.05 2.47±0.05

Notes* Orange Flame * Will not burn on its own * faint smoke

* sparks * Burns independently fairly well

sparks * independent burning * popping noise * faint smoke * still smoking 3 minutes later

Proposed InvestigationWe can learn behavior of wood with single

tree speciesIn a larger study, study an entire forest with

different types of treesAlthough preliminary study is singular types;

can be bettered by looking at speed and temperature rise of a culmination.

Independent variable: ratio of the species of trees

Dependent variable: temperature of the fire and length of time the fire burns

Proposed Investigation cont.First, gather woods of different species in COMost imperative factor is samples from CO

and reflect actual population of COMaybe random samples

Burn woods in large scale experiment with high temperature thermometers and accurate measuring of timeUsing time and temperature as destructibility,

categorized in orderThis data will be used for a database

Proposed Investigation cont.A meta-analytical investigation

Categorize the forests by percentage of species and a database for destructibility of the fire with factors: heat and time

The ConclusionIn numerical indicationsInput being percentage of species and output being heat and

speedDatabase completed, a program can be completed

Will input the percentage of species and theoretical heat and hypothetical speed forest fire for early detection

Indication for how major the fire can becomeFire services will be able to prioritizePeople/businesses are able to evaluate their own dangers for

their area in danger

Example Data Table (for Experiment)Species of Trees Time for Wood to

Burn Out (probably in minutes)

Average Temperature (in degrees Celsius)

Example Data Table (for Meta-Analysis)Forest Fire Name

Place Date(s)

Duration

Size of Affected Area

Type of Fire (including Temperature)

Percentage of Species of Trees

Other Distinguishing Notes

NoteThis data table is still a very rough one. The "Type of Fire" is supposed to be the measure of destruction. However, unlike in an experiment, measuring the temperature of a forest fire while it is occurring is unviable. At the same time, one forest fire will probably have different temperatures in different areas. Thus, the temperature recorded in "Type of Fire" will probably be an estimate. So, unless another quantitative method can be found, this column will remain qualitative, arbitrarily quantitative, and/or estimative. This is why the experiment above is important, for it gives a comparison of the individual species of trees with the percentage presented in the meta-analysis. Also, other possible variables like wind, dryness/humidity, forest density, etc. can be somewhat ruled out by a growing list of forest fires, the "Other Distinguishing Notes" and the experiment providing a basic idea of the expected results.

BibliographyColorado's Major Tree Species. Colorado

State University, n.d. Web. 7 Mar. 2014. <http://csfs.colostate.edu/pages/major-tree-species.html>.

Cottrell, William H., Jr. The Book of Fire. Missoula: Mountain Press, 2004. Print.

Firewood Ratings. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2014. <http://mb-soft.com/juca/print/firewood.html>.