greyson florence0212
TRANSCRIPT
JamesGreyson 1
Lastchanceatthelastminute?Makingglobalwholesystemschangevisibleandpossible
ASSYSTFlorencemee4ngon'Exploringthefutureincomplexsystemsfordecision‐making’
13thFeb2012
Ifwedonotchangedirec4on,wemayendupwhereweareheading.LaoTzu
JamesGreyson 2
Arewemissingsomething?
Blindspotso Thegapbetweenproblems
andproblems‐actually‐solved.o Themassdelusionthat
solu4onsareunderway.
o Thecapacitytoreallymanageglobalcomplexity.
o Opportuni4esonthescaleofthegap.
JamesGreyson 3
Maywehaveanother40yearsplease?
1972Stockholmmee4ng;1stawarenessofglobalscaleproblemsRio+20isactuallyStockholm+40
o The‘solu4onspace’usedformajorglobalproblemshasn’tactuallysolvedanyofthem.
o Whatnow?
o Crossfingersandkeeptrying?
o Explorepossibili4esforsolu4onsonanewscaleofambi4on?
o Mapit.
JamesGreyson 4
Mappingthedefaultresponsetocomplexity
MichaelQuinnPa_on,DevelopmentalEvalua4on:applyingcomplexityconceptstoenhanceInnova4onandUse,chapter4.GuilfordPress,2011
o Comfortzone:predict,planandcontrol.
o Complexityzone:middleground(oreverywhere?)
o Outerzone:mayhem(or‘terraincognito’unexploredterritory?)
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MassiveAvoidance…Why?
o ‘Herebedragons’.Aversionto‘terraincognito’.
o Psychology.Mentalmodelsshrinkoverwhelmingproblems.
o Moralretreat.Sharedfailuretoobigtoaccept.
o Control.Appealof‘manageable’subsystems.
o Planning.What’sourremit?Whatseemsrealis4c?
o Habit.Reduc4onistculture,educa4on,jobsandmedia.
o Lock‐in.Pastfailureofreduc4onismironicallymakesproblemsseemtoobigandhardtoconsiderasawhole.
o Blindspot.Can’tseeanotherway=nootherway.
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Subsystemandwholesystemapproaches
A:systema;c B:systemic
Focusonsubsystemsdefinedbytopics(suchasclimateorfood),sectors(suchasenergyorfinance)orphysicalareasofinterest(suchasacommunityorregion).
Focusonwholesystemnotsubsystems.
Globalcomplexityismanageableassubsystems.
Globalcomplexityismanageableasanindivisiblewhole.
Manageviareducing(disregarding)complexity.
Manageviatheconnectednessofcomplexity.
Progressasgradualincrementalchangealongalineartrajectory.
Progressaschangeofparadigms.
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Mappingdualapproachestocomplexity
o Zoneofcomplexityiseverywhere.
o ZoneAconsidersselectedcomplexitywithinsubsystems.
o ZoneB,wholesystemzoneconsidersallcomplexity.
o ZoneBisinvisiblefromZoneA,“it’schaosoutthere!”
o Zonesarecomfortzonesfordialogue,ontology,problem‐solving…
NoneComplexityconsidered100%
Non
eChangeconsidered
10
0%
ZoneA.Defaultapproach(managingsubsystemssystema4cally)
ZoneB.Newapproach
Scep4cscorner
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Hidingwholesystemchangewithlabels
NoneComplexityconsidered100%
Non
eChangeconsidered
10
0%
ZoneA.Systema4cchange
ZoneB.Systemicchange
o Chao4co Unknowable
o Unquan4fiable
o Unpredictable
o Unmanageable
o Abstracttheory
o Idealis4c
o Overwhelming
o Someoneelse’sproblem
o Really?
o Controllableo Knowable
o Quan4fiable
o Predictable
o Manageable
o Tangible
o Realis4c
o Doable
o Everyone’sac4onsadduptobigchange.
o Really?
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Howtomanageanirreducibleworld?
o Asystemic(non‐reduc4onist)approachbasedinzoneB.
o Thepuzzle:everythingisconnectedtoeverythingelse.
o Usethisconnectednesstoleveragechange.
o Seekleverage‘whereasmallshisinonethingcanproducebigchangesineverything’.DonellaMeadows,LeveragePoints,1999
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Leversarebuiltintosystems
o Pa_ernsofconnectednessshapeoutcomesevenifwedon’tseethem.
o Newpa_ernsofconnectednessofferpoten4alevolu4onsofsystems,evenifwedon’tusethem.
o “Systemscanbeunderstoodbylookingforpa_ernswithintheircomplexity,pa_ernsthatdescribepoten4alevolu4onsofthesystem.”Dooley,K.(1996),“ANominalDefini4onofComplexAdap4veSystems,”TheChaosNetwork,8(1):2‐3.h_p://www.public.asu.edu/~kdooley/papers/casdef.PDF
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Wholesystemlevers
o Leverslinktoreal‐worldoutcomes.o Leversareconnected,asinalock,so
theycanonlymovetogether.o Levershave3posi4ons;default,secure,
broken.o Defaultposi4on:movementiswithin
subsystems,leversunmoved.o Secureposi4on:lever4ltedinopposite
direc4onfromdefault.o Broken:toolate.Irreversiblefailurewith
anyfacetofsecurity.o Ashisfromdefaulttosecurecould
avoida‘brokencivilisa4on’.
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Howtospotglobalwholesystemlevers?
o Leversaremechanismsforplanet‐scalesystemicchange.
o Leverscreatechangeacrossissues,sectorsandlevels.Thechangeisemergent,cascadingandself‐organising.Noplan,notargets,nocentralcontrol.
o Lever=ambi4on+worldview+policy+mechanismtoimplement.
o Apparentconflictsbetweenselfishsubsystemgoalsareresolvedbysynergiesandmergedgoals(globalsecurity).
o Lever‘opera4ngposi4ons’arebinary.EgNatureeithershrinksorexpands.Systemic‘game‐change’isdiametricalandinstant.Systema4cchangeisincrementalandslow.
o References:Meadows1999,LeveragePoints.Greyson2008,Systemiceconomicinstrumentsforenergy,climateandglobalsecurity.
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Sevenpolicyswitchesforglobalsecurity
1. Development=whole‐systemimprovementnotless‐bad.2. Learningledbycuriositynotprogramming.
3. Buildingnotconsumingthebasisforeconomicgrowth.
4. GDPthatreversesmacro‐incen4vesforconflict.
5. Ownershiptoincludeguardianship.WebelongtoEarth.
6. Stockofsurpluswealthrecruitedintostockpileofproblems.
7. Monetaryliquiditysuppliedbypublicbodiesnotprivatebanks.
o BasedonNATO‐publishedresearchfromtwoAdvancedResearchWorkshops.o Interna4onalacademicpeer‐review.Read>5k4mes.Discussion>3kcomments.Webthinktank>550people.o Policyswitchesareleversforglobalwholesystemchange.o Allareneededtosolveanymajorproblem.
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Fromhoppingtorunning;afuturethatdoesn’tfallover
o Subsystemandwholesystemmethodsarelikefeet.Useboth.
o ‘Inthebroaderperspec4veofthesystemsapproachnoproblemcanbesolvedsimplyonitsownbasis.Everyproblemhasanenvironment,towhichitisinextricablyunited.’CWestChurchman
o Everysubsystemhasaglobalwholesystemtowhichitisinextricablylinked.
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1969:‘Whatwouldbethetrueprogressofmanifhungerandwarpersists?’
TheGuardiannewspaperJuly21st1969
o Foodsecurityinvolvessolu4onsbothwithinandbeyondthefoodsubsystem.o Possibletoendhungerwithoutregenera4ngsoils,ecosystems,economies…?
o Na4onalsecurityinvolvessolu4onsbothwithinandbeyondthedefensesubsystem.o Possibletoachievesecurityanywherewithoutglobalsecurity?o Risingdefensespending=fallingsecurity.
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TheGuardianJune25th1988
o Climateinstabilityisasystemicproblemwithsubsystemresponses.o Runawaychangecouldprecedeaneffec4veresponse.o ResponsessofarcomefromZoneA.‘Let’sfocusoncarbon.’‘Let’saimforwhatseemsrealis4c.’o TheZoneBsystemicresponseisyettobegin.
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Day1ofaneffec4veresponse:frametheproblem
o ZoneAfocusoncuyngconcentra4onsnotjustemissions.Reverselossofsinks.
o ZoneBfocusonclimateassymptomofmul4‐issuedynamic.Fixthewhole.
o Egreshapetheglobaleconomy:h_p://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/‐/plans/contestId/4/planId/15101
o EgRevivesoils,ecosystems,climateandeconomiesbyreversinglinearcarbonflows:h_p://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/‐/plans/contestId/4/planId/14637
Climateisanout‐of‐the‐boxproblem
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References
o ‘Weneedtoadvanceinamanagedway.Wetakeoneblockata4me.Otherwisewewillproducechaos.’h_p://www.environmentalgovernance.org/video/2010/05/quest‐for‐leadership/videoat12:45mins
o ‘Togethertheswitchesdefineaprac4calstrategyforglobalsecurity,foraseriousa_emptatrevivalofco‐opera4on,ecosystemsandprosperity.’Greyson2010,SevenPolicySwitchesforGlobalSecurity.NATOScienceProgramme.ISBN9048195675h_p://bit.ly/7switches
o ‘Energysecurity,climatestability,sustainabledevelopment,economicgrowthandna4onalsecurityarecodependentgoals;eitherallwillbeachievedornone.’Greyson2008,SystemicEconomicInstrumentsforEnergy,ClimateandGlobalSecurity.NATOScienceProgramme.ISBN9781402084928h_p://bit.ly/systemic
o ‘AnOutOfParadigmSpace(OOPS)todiscussop4onsthathaven’tbeenconsideredsimplybecausetheydidn’tfitintheprevailingsharedmentalmodels.’EarthSystemsGovernanceOp‐Ed.h_p://www.ieg.earthsystemgovernance.org/news/2011‐08‐19/interna4onal‐environmental‐governance‐paradigm‐governance
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Thankyou!
o Endoftalko Remainingslidesoutlinethe7policyswitches
o Ques4ons,cri4cisms,[email protected]
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“The view that negative impacts are an inevitable consequence of development has blinded us to the obvious. We could design development to increase the size, health and resilience of natural systems, while improving human health and life quality.”
Prof Janis Birkeland
Positive Development. Earthscan 2008 My proposed economic tool is on page 339
Policyswitch1:Less bad is not good enough
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Policyswitch2:frompredeterminedtocuriosity‐ledlearning
o Howtoderail‘tram‐line’herdthinking?
o Curiosityisamissingingredientinbotheduca4onandpolicy‐making.
o “Whatwewanttoseeisthechildinpursuitofknowledgeandnotknowledgeinpursuitofthechild.”GeorgeBernardShaw
o Joined‐uplearningenablesjoined‐upengagedgroups/communi4es/society.
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“Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfaction in consumption patterns. We need things consumed, burned up, replaced and discarded at an ever accelerating rate.”
Victor Lebow ‘Price Competition in 1955’, Journal of Retailing. USA, Spring 1955. Page 7
Policyswitch3:fromconsumingtobuildingthebasisforeconomicgrowthandwell‐being
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Whatshapeistheeconomyin?
It’s the end of the line for linear growth. The future for growth is circular economics.
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‘Insuring’afutureforproducts,business,economyandplanet
o Waste,toxics,pollu4onandGHGshouldnolongerbe‘managed’attheendofthepipe,whenit’stoolate.Everyphysicalproductthatissoldshouldbeinsuredtoaccountfortheriskofaddingtowastelevelsinecosystems.
o ‘Precyclingpremiums’forallproducts,largeandsmall,couldquicklyphaseoutwaste‐dependenceeverywhere.Arevivaloftheeconomy,ecosystemsandco‐opera4onwouldbecomeviable.
o Premiumswouldbepaidaccordingto‘wasterisk’.Premiumswouldbeinvestedtocutwasteriskbysuppor4ngprecycling,buildingtechnical,socialandecologicalcapacity.
o Producerscouldchoosehowtohandletheirresponsibility.Theycouldcuttheirpremiumsbyprecyclingornotbotherandpaymoretosupportprecyclingelsewhere.Customersandinvestorscouldchoose.
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Policyswitch4:reverseanunintendedmacro‐economicincen4veforconflict
o Poli4cianscanboostGDPbyhigherrelianceonarmedthreat.
o Thisdrivesthearmsraceandglobalinsecurity.Yetmilitarysecurityis‘notforsale’.
o GrossPeacefulProductsimplyomitsweapons‐relatedtransac4ons.
o GPPmakesna4onalsecurityaffordableandsupportsacycleofnon‐comba4veproblem‐solving.
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Policyswitch5:includingguardianshipwithinownershipoftheEarth
o Ecosystemservices,biodiversityandresourcelevelsareindecline.
o Howto‘value’naturewithoutcommodifying?Indigenousvsmodernviewsofbelonging.
o ReinterpretownershipoftheEarthtoincludeadutyofguardianshiponbehalfoffuturegenera4ons.
o Reversinglossofnaturalcapitalunderpinsrevivalsofeconomyandcoopera4on.
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Policyswitch6:recruitsurpluswealthtofixaccumulatedecological,socialandfinancialdebts
o Thestockoflegacyproblemsobstructsglobalsecurityandposi4vefeedbackswouldwipeoutprospectsandwealth.
o Theworld’smega‐richcaninvestinaworldwheremoneycon4nuestohavemeaningandvalue.
o Massivepeer‐ledself‐organisedphilanthropy.
o Incen4visewith‘potlatch’styleculturalstatus,landtaxandopeningoftax‐havens.
What if the 10,000 richest people in the world would do what I did? Doug Tompkins
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Policyswitch7:harvestthe‘moneytree’forpublicratherthanprivatebenefit
o Mostmoneyiscreatedby‘frac4onalbanking’–repeatedrelendingofdeposits.Moneyiscreatedprivatelyasdebt.
o “Theprivilegeofcrea4ngandissuingmoneyisnotonlythesupremepreroga4veofgovernment,butitisthegovernment’sgreatestcrea4veopportunity.”AbrahamLincoln,1865
o ‘Quan4ta4veeasing’ismodernpublicmoneycrea4on(thoughcurrentlymisdirectedtoreinflateassetpricesandbail‐outbanklosses).
o Createmoneyforpublicbenefitcentrallyandlocallythenspendintotheeconomy.Posi4vedevelopmentethosprovides‘backing’oflas4ngvalueandmeaning.