8/6/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 7/31/2011

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Week of

July 31,2011

MortgageMarket

Commentary

Last week held a big surprise for financial markets. The first estimate of the second quarters GDP

was thought to have only slowed slightly, from 1.9% to about 1.7%. Unfortunately, the US economy

appears to have slowed even more than expected to 1.3%. This moved money out of stock marketsand helped nudge rates downward on Friday.

This week could be a very interesting week for financial markets. While the larger-than-expected

slowdown in the economy would generally pressure mortgage rates lower, whatever Washington doe

regarding the debt limit could push rates in any direction. Whether a debt limit extension is reached o

not, the more important long term question may be what happens in the case of a downgrade to US

debt. While there is no way to know for sure, since it has never happened, most experts believe a

downgrade would pressure all interest rates upward, including mortgage rates. However, since it is

completely new situation, no one knows for sure how this week will play out.

MortgageRa

tes

2.75%

3.25%

3.75%

4.25%

4.75%

5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 7/14 7/28

30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

DowJ

ones

11,750.00

12,000.00

12,250.00

12,500.00

12,750.00

13,000.00

5- Ma y 1 9- Ma y 2- Jun 1 6- Jun 30 -J un 1 4- Jul 2 8- Ju

This Weeks Top Economic Reports and Events

Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.180% 11th D. COFI 1.360%

Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 2.970% COSI 2.240%Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.423% CODI 0.280%

Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.252%

HistoricalRates

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10

1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime

10 Year Treasury Note Trend

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

5-May 19-May 2-Jun 16-Jun 30-Jun 14-Jul 28-Jul

10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave

T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r

f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e

C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t

T h e m D i r e c t l y

26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact

ISM Manufacturing Index 8/1 55.3 54.0 Significant

After last weeks GDP, a larger-than-expected drop in this index would

certainly put significant downward pressure on mortgage rates.

PCE Prices (core) 8/2 0.3% 0.2% Moderate

Inflationary pressures have remained very subdued, and any reading near

expectations will provide some balanced pressure on mortgage rates.

ISM Services Index 8/3 53.3 53.1 Moderate

With expectations of a nearly unchanged reading, a jump in this index

could generate some upward pressure, especially if the other ISM climbs.

Unemployment Rate 8/5 9.2% 9.1% Significant

If the market is pushing interest rates upward at the end of the week, andunemployment drops, rates are very likely to keep pushing higher.

Nonfarm Payrolls 8/5 18K 78K Significant

Jobs are the biggest key to economic recovery, and another extremely

poor showing for new jobs will put downward pressure on interest rates.

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