8/7/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 5/1/2011

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Week of

May 1,2011

MortgageMarket

Commentary

Mortgage rates slid slightly downward last week as we appear to be hitting a small road bump on

the path of economic recovery. As expected, GDP was racketed downward, but the economy stil

continues to grow, of course, at a slower pace. Discussions of inflationary concerns seem to dominatethe financial press right now. However, markets seem to continue to hold some faith that the curren

flare up in inflation will fade in the not-to-distant future. This week did have one ground breaking

event, as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke held the first-ever press conference following the end of a

scheduled FOMC meeting. Markets reacted positively to a new level of central bank transparency.

Markets will likely focus on the ISM Indices and the monthly employment data. If we get more

indications that the economy is losing steam, we should see mortgage rates staying low, or even

drifting slightly downward. If the ISM Manufacturing Index remains elevated, and we get anothe

surprise decrease in the unemployment rate, we could see mortgage rates moving upward.

MortgageRa

tes

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

2/10 2/24 3/10 3/24 4/7 4/21

30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

DowJ

ones

11,500.00

11,750.00

12,000.00

12,250.00

12,500.00

12,750.00

13,000.00

3 -F eb 1 7- Fe b 3 -Mar 1 7- Ma r 3 1- Ma r 1 4- Ap r 2 8- Ap

This Weeks Top Economic Reports and Events

Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.240% 11th D. COFI 1.469%

Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 3.410% COSI 2.220%Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.431% CODI 0.331%

Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.295%

HistoricalRates

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10

1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime

10 Year Treasury Note Trend

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

3-Feb 17-Feb 3-Mar 17-Mar 31-Mar 14-Apr 28-Apr

10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave

T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r

f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e

C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t

T h e m D i r e c t l y

26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact

ISM Manufacturing Index 5/2 61.2 59.7 Significant

This report is likely to set the directional trend for rates this week.

Anything over 60 will help keep rates steady or move them upward.

Factory Orders 5/3 -0.1% 1.9% Limited

With manufacturing still carrying the recovery, a larger-than-expected

increase in orders could generate some small upward pressure on rates.

ISM Services Index 5/4 57.3 57.3 Moderate

With services appearing to be stable, an unexpected drop could generate

some downward pressure on mortgage and other interest rates.

Unemployment Rate 5/6 8.8% 8.8% Significant

With the recent trend of unexpected decreases in unemployment, anincrease in unemployment would likely push rates downward.

Nonfarm Payrolls 5/6 216K 185K Significant

If we see another decrease in the unemployment rate and more jobs are

created than expected, we may see mortgage rates moving upward.

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