8/7/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 3/14/2011

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Week ofMarch 13,

2011

MortgageMarket

Commentary

Mortgage rates continue to wander in a fairly tight range, with signs of economic growth coupled withinflationary concerns balanced against international unrest and increasing oil prices. Retail sales

posted a full one percent increase last month, with many categories experiencing increases.The Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss monetary policy. While the Fed is unlikely to changeinterest rates, it faces a host of growing issues even as the US economy seems to be gaining sometraction. From the disaster in Japan, to increasing oil prices, to middle east unrest, to debt strain inEurope, the Fed and financial markets will have plenty to consider this week. Mortgage rates arelikely to benefit from the global turmoil, as money flows into the safe havens of US Treasuries.However, rates may experience some upward pressure if economic news continues to point to afirming domestic economy. With so many competing pressures, mortgage rates may simply continueto be constrained to a fairly limited range, unless something unexpected happens.

Mortgage Rates

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

12/23 1/6 1/20 2/3 2/17 3/3

30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

Dow Jones

11,250.00

11,500.00

11,750.00

12,000.00

12,250.00

12,500.00

15-Dec 29-Dec 12-Jan 26-Jan 9 -Feb 23-Feb 9-Mar

This Weeks Top Economic Reports and Events

Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.260% 11th D. COFI 1.484%

Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 3.470% COSI 2.220%

Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.461% CODI 0.327%

Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.307%Historical Rates

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10

1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime

10 Year Treasury Note Trend

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

15-Dec 29-Dec 12-Jan 26-Jan 9-Feb 23-Feb 9-Mar

10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave

To R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e rf r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g eC o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t

T h e m D i r e c t l y

26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact

FOMC Policy Announcement 3/15 SignificantWhile the Feds words always weigh heavily on the market, only asignificant change in course or outlook is likely to move rates either way.

Producer Price Index (core) 3/16 0.5% 0.2% ModerateThe wholesale level of the economy continues to absorb price pressures.Another increase will put a slight amount of upward pressure on rates.

Consumer Price Index (core) 3/17 0.2% 0.1% SignificantSome economists are beginning to predict growing price pressures in thenear term. A 0.3% increase would likely push mortgage rates upward.

Industrial Production 3/17 -0.1% 0.6% Significant

If the manufacturing categories of this months IP report show stronggrowth, rates will experience some strong upward pressure.

Leading Economic Indicators 3/17 0.1% 0.9% ModerateWith expectations of an other increase in the LEI, an unexpected dipcould generate some downward pressure on mortgage rates.

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