Shipping Emission Analytics:

Anywhere, anytime…..

Dr Carol Hargreaves

Institute of Systems Science

National University of Singapore

carol.hargreaves@nus.edu.sg

23 September 2015

AGENDA• Introduction - Industry Problem

• Shipping Industry Background Information

• Emission Reduction Measures Identified & Current Challenges Faced by the Shipping Industry

• Big Data helps Shipping Lines cut Fuel Bills & Emissions

• Goal: To Build a Ship Emission Rating Index (SERI)Tool & Comparison of Emission Reduction Measures / Tools

• Predictive Model for Determining Ship Emission Rating Index (SERI)

• What is the Value of our “SERI” Tool?

• Are there any Opportunities for Collaboration?

Industry Problem:

Through the release of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), the

industry also contributes significantly to climate change

There is continued increase in international maritime

transport which may result in shipping being

responsible for 6% of the world’s GHG emissions by

2020 & 15% by 2050.

Globally, we need to half the carbon emissions by

2050.

Carbon emissions are depleting the ozone layer.

Exposure to toxic emissions from shipping is

reported to cause cardiovascular & respiratory

diseases

http://www.sustainalytics.com/sites/default/files/shippingemissions_july2013.pdf

Shipping Industry Background Information - EEDI

Since July 2011, the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) ,

measures theoretical CO2 emission performance of newships over 400 gross tonnes & is calculated from shipdesign and engine performance data, where:

P is 75% of the rated installed shaft power,

SFC is the specific fuel consumption,

Cf is CO2 is emission rate based on fuel type,

DWT is the ship deadweight tonnage,

Vref is the vessel speed at design load.

Shipping Industry Background Information - SEEMP

From July 2011, the Ship Energy Efficiency Management

Plan (SEEMP) was mandatory for all ships of 400 gross

tonnage and above.

From 1 January 2013, all existing ships are required to

document their energy usage through the introduction of

a Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) that

is linked to the ship’s broader management plan

Shipping Industry Background Information - EVDI

• RightShip’s (2011), Existing Vessel Design Index ,

the EVDI™ measures a ship’s CO2 emissions CO2

emissions per tonne nautical mile travelled based

on the characteristics of the ship, and, unlike the

EEDI, the EVDI™ can be applied to existing ships.

• The GHG Emissions Rating is a practical measure

derived from the EVDI™ that allows relative

comparison of a ship’s CO2 emissions to vessels

of a similar size and type.

Shipping Industry Background Information - ESI

The Environmental Shipping Index (ESI, 2011)evaluates the amount of nitrogen oxide (NOX),sulphur oxide (SOX) that is released by a ship andincludes a reporting scheme on the greenhousegas emission of the ship.

The ESI is a good indication of the environmentalperformance of ocean going vessels and willassist in identifying cleaner ships in a generalway.

The index is intended to be used by ports toreward ships when they participate in the ESI andwill promote clean ships,

Shipping Industry Background Information - CSI

Clean Shipping Index (CSI, 2011) is a tool for

measuring the five areas of environmental impact

– CO2 emission, SOX emission, NOX emissions,

PM emissions, chemical products, water & waste

control.

Clean Shipping Index estimates how well a vessel

is doing in each area. The weighing together of

the score gives a hint of the overall performance.

Clean Shipping Index is a web-based tool which is

quick and easy to fill in for carriers – and to no

expense covers main types of vessels from all ages

Emission Reduction Measures Identified

Jun Yuan1 & Szu Hui Ng2 & Weng Sut Sou1 (1 Centre for Maritime Studies, 2 Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering (NUS))

Operational Measures Technical Measures

Speed Reduction Hull Coating 1

Weather Routing Hull Coating 11

Autopilot Adjustment Optimization water Flow of hull openings (grids, scallop)

Propeller Polishing when Required Air Lubrication

Propeller Polishing (at regular intervals) Integrated Propeller and Rudder Upgrade

Propeller Upgrade

Propeller Boss Cap with Fins

Main Engine Tuning

Speed Control of Pumps and Fans

Current Challenges faced by the Shipping Industry - ECA

From 2016, new threshold will also

apply to nitrous oxide emissions.

From 2015, ships operating in Emissions

Control Areas will be required to use fuels with

0.1% or less sulphur content (versus 1%

previously)

Table 1. MARPOL Annex VI NOx Emission Limits

Tier Date

NOx Limit, g/kWh

n < 130

13

0 ≤ n < 20

00

n ≥ 2000

Tier I 2000 17.0 45 · n-0.2 9.8

Tier II 2011 14.4 44 · n-0.23 7.7

Tier III 2016† 3.4 9 · n-0.2 1.96

† In NOx Emission Control Areas (Tier II standards apply outsi

de ECAs).

Big Data helps Shipping Lines Cut Fuel Bills and Emissions

The market of ships well suited for remote monitoring to analyze data

is about 30,000 out of 100,000 commercial class vessels globally.

These 30,000 vessels could create a $20 billion value in terms of reductions in fuel consumption, downtime, maintenance expenses and environmental fines. That number could go to $50 billion by 2030.

Maersk container line has reduced greenhouse emissions per container moved nearly 40 percent since 2007 and is committed to a target reduction of 60 percent by 2020.

Maersk gives much of the credit for fuel and emissions reductions to its Global Voyage Centre, which monitors fleet operations round the clock from a situation room in Mumbai."The team is watching to ensure that the vessels keep to their optimum voyage speed.

http://magazines.marinelink.com/Magazines/MaritimeProfessional/201403/content/optimize-performance-analytics-465883

Big Data helps Shipping Lines Cut Fuel Bills and Emissions

At a time when environmental concerns and energy prices remain high,

savings on fuel can make a significant improvement to margins.

Accurate information on fuel consumption and routes can mean the

difference between winning a customer and letting them go to a

competitor.

Increasing levels of automation and onshore vessel control are

presenting opportunities to further reduce operational expenditure.

TransMetrics brings big data to the transport and logistics industry to

improve capacity optimization, reduce costs and reduce CO2 emission.

Goal: Build a Ship Rating Tool for Ranking & Rating Ships

on their Emissions Some ships are more emission friendly than others….what is the impact of different factors in their contribution to how ‘green’ a ship is???

Emissions do not divide into ships equally and considerations sucha ship size, fuel type, engine performance as well as maritimetechnology mean that some ships are more efficient than others

Comparison of Emission Reduction Measures / Tools

EEDI EVDI™

Measures theoretical CO2 emission performance of new ships over 400 gross tonnes & is calculated from ship design and engine performance data

The EVDI™ is similar to the EEDI but can be applied to existing ships.

Derived from the EVDI™ that

allows relative comparison of a

ship’s CO2 emissions to vessels of

a similar size and type.

GHG Emissions Rating

ESI

Gives a numerical representation of the environmental performance of ships and is a function of NOX ,SOX, CO2, PM, chemicals

CSI

Gives a rating to ships & shipping companies based on their environmental performance – CO2, SOX, PM2.5,PM10,NOX,Ballast Water, Bilge Water, Chemicals (antifouling, lubricants)

Uses fuel type, vessel type, TEU, CO2, SOX, engine type, PM2.5, PM10, NOX, time spent in port, vessel weight, scrubber, auxillary engine usage at berth, the way they operate their ship, country, owner, classification society, weather, speed, propeller polishing, autopilot, hull coatings, lubricants, propeller upgrade, main engine tuning, water flow optimization, speed control of pumps and fans ++++++.

SERI

Predictive Model for Determining Ship Emission Rating Index

Neural network/Logistic regression models are used to predict the ship emission rating

Container database has a list of green ships that will be used

Dynamically Measuring “Ship Emission Rating Index (SERI)”…..

The analytical approach is suitable as it will allow us to:

Identify the key factors that contribute to the SERI for each ship type

Identify which of the key factors have a positive effect and which factors have a negative effect for

each ship type

Determine the size and impact of each factor on the SERI for each ship type

Assess the impact of SOx, NOx, CO2, PM2.5, PM10 on SERI

Demo of our “SERI” Tool

• Based on Singapore Container Data

System Architecture

Current green ship registry

database

Neural Network

Model

Recency, Frequency,

TEU Classification

Engine

Marketing RulesVessel Tracking

System

Green status of new

vessel

Targetting Green Strategy

What is the Value of our “SERI” Tool?

Reduced Carbon Emissions.

Increase in Number of Emission Friendly Ships.

Singapore Rated as a Green Port

Sets a standard that beyond physical vessel measurement.

Easily accessible

Real-time functionality

Mobility

Easy to understand

Banks & Insurance Companies

Are there any Opportunities for Collaboration?

• Develop a CO2 Online/Mobile Emission Calculator

• Develop an Online/Mobile “Ship Emission Rating Index (SERI)” Tool for ship owners/ship agents/ship

navigators

• Design a Survey to better understand the challenges that ship owners/ship agents face in reducing

their emissions

• Build Interactive Ship Dashboard to inform/advise ship navigators on Key Performance Indicators (KPI)

• Develop an Online/Mobile Calculator to measure SOx, NOx, CO2, PM2.5, PM10