Grandview Beach AssociationGrandview Beach AssociationSpring MeetingSpring MeetingMarch 20, 2006March 20, 2006

LOSL Study Decision Guidelines

Contribute to ecological integrity

Maximize net benefits

No disproportionate loss. Mitigation alternatives may be identified to limit damages when considered appropriate. Eliminate disproportionate loss (any adopted plan not to be implemented until the mitigation implementation measures are in place).

Flexible in recognition of unusual or unexpected conditions

Adaptable to climate change and climate variability.

Decision-making will be transparent and representative

Adapt to future advances in knowledge, science and technology.

74.20

74.30

74.40

74.50

74.60

74.70

74.80

74.90

75.00

75.10

75.20

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

qrtr month

Avg 1961-2000 Avg 1900-1960

Equitythere still is no equity between loss of personal

property, i.e. a family’s home and land, and the inability to use a recreational boat. They had been put on same

plane for Study but never quantified in importance.

Equity- Continued The following was obtained from NYS Governor Pataki’s Web site

regarding the Hydroelectric Dam at Massena:

The relicense of dam continues to provide low cost power to surrounding areas.

$10.5 million to surrounding areas for High Water Flow Adjustment$115 million for community enhancements in Towns of Massena,

Louisville, Waddington, Lisbon and villages of Massena and Waddington and the school districts of Massena, Lisbon, Madrid-Waddington and St.

Lawrence County.$23 million for the St. Lawrence Aquarium$12 for improvements at local state parks

$8 million for parks in Massena, Louisville, Waddington and Lisbon.$66 million for fish and wildlife habitat improvements

$300,000 for boat docks and picnic area improvements on Galop Islands State Park

High Water ImpactsHigh Water ImpactsParks- State, County, Municipal Root Swamp 2.25Fort Niagara 1 Fair haven S.P. 2Four Mile S. P. 1 Selkirk S.P. 1.5Tuscarora S.P. 1 Southwick S.P. 0.75Golden Hill S.P. 1.25 Westcott S.P. 0.5Lakeside S.P. 2 Calvin Kreuger Park 0.12Oak Orchard Marina S.P. 1 Krull County Park 0.5Hamlin Beach S.P. 3.75 Bicentennial Park 0.12Roses Marsh 0.75 Parks- State, County, Municipal Total 18.1Braddock Bay S.P. 2Channel Park 0.25 RoadwaysLittle Pond Park 0.1 Rt. 18 Wilson 0.75Ontario Beach Park 0.5 Lake Ontario Parkway 1.75Durand Eastman Park 1.5 Durand Eastman Park 1.5Irondequoit Bay S.P. 0.5 Roadway total 4Webster Park 1Sodus Bay 0.5 Total- Roadways and Parks 29.84

tan 600 X 2640 ft = 4573

Emergency Deviations

These thresholds can be defined as extreme water level and flow occurrences approximating 1:100 year exceedance probability events, or by known physical limitations or response functions of the system, for example Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River water level conditions at which significant shoreline damages occur, or levels beyond which environmental benefits may not continue to accrue depending on recent occurrences of high- or low-water level events. The Study Board suggests that in the event of a 50% probability that the thresholds listed in Table 15 will be exceeded, the International St. Lawrence River Board of Control evaluate the effects of deviating from plans flows and implement appropriate water management strategies, with the express concurrence of the Commission.

PlanModeled 58DD 3%

Plan A 8%Plan B 5%Plan D 3%

Amt. of time above 247.0 ft during spring months (March - May)

Wind & Wave ActionWind & Wave Action

At 247.4 ft April 1993At 247.4 ft April 1993

Residential FloodingResidential Flooding

At 247.4 ft. April 1993At 247.4 ft. April 1993

Date Water Level Effect

4/7/1998 247.4436" diameter Sewer Interceptor along shoreline serving towns of Webster and Irondequoit undermined and threatened with breach. Major environmental problem

4/7/1998 247.44 Brockport Drinking Water Treatment plant serving 35,000 homes.Below grade clearwells threatened with lake contamination.

4/7/1998 247.44Greece Drinking Water Treatment plant threatened within 6” of flooding in transformer station. Plant serves approx 1 million people in Monroe, Orleans, Wayne, Ontario, and Genesee counties including Batavia NY.

4/7/98 247.44 $2 million dollars in damage to road infrastructure in Monroe County

4/7/97 246.63 Lake Waves at Hamlin Beach State Park- $800,000.00 in damages

5/5/97 247 Governor requests Advance Measures Program from USACE

 

Coastal

75.2 (246.72 ft.) Max.

Lake Ontario - CoastalLake Ontario - Coastal

74.7 (245.08 ft.) Max.

May through August

November through February

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75.38

243.374.15

247.3

Concerns about Environmental Science.

Other concernsSince the development of the projects in the 1950’s on the St. Lawrence were built the system has became controlled by man. Saying that we will take it back to conditions seen prior to regulation is not be practical due to the development that has also occurred based on criteria that have been in effect since that time. Development both public and private has been based on 4 ft range. 

Changing the present Orders of Approval, which guaranteed certain conditions to those recognized interests including riparians, could be in conflict with the treaty due to damages that will occur. 

The Study’s results are only hypothetical. They are not a proven theory and as such need to be tested before enacted and damages inflicted.

The PIAG’s principal objective was to ensure that the results of the Study considered the interests and “natural knowledge” of the public. When we told plan formulators that certain levels particularity in spring months cause problems. This effort had no affect on the proposed plans.

Other concerns- cont.

Plan A+ Plan B+ Plan D+ Plan E

Ontario Wetland Meadow Marsh Community 1.02 1.44 1.17 1.56n Low Veg 18C - spawning habitat supply 0.89 0.95 0.94 0.88t High Veg 24C - spawning habitat supply 1.05 1.00 1.01 1.08a Low Veg 24C - spawning habitat supply 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.11r Northern Pike - YOY recruitment 1.02 1.00 1.05 1.03i Largemouth Bass - YOY recruitment 0.94 0.98 0.97 0.96o Least Bittern (IXEX) - reproductive index 0.88 1.04 0.96 1.13

Virginia Rail (RALI) - reproductive index 0.96 1.11 0.99 1.15Black Tern (CHNI) - reproductive index 1.03 1.12 1.01 1.16

Yellow Rail (CONO) - preferred breeding habitat 0.96 1.01 0.98 1.01King Rail (RAEL) - preferred breeding habitat 1.05 1.10 1.03 1.27

Upper RiverHigh Veg 24C - spawning habitat supply 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.02Low Veg 24C - spawning habitat supply 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.04Northern Pike - YOY recruitment 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.06Largemouth Bass - YOY recruitment 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00Northern Pike - YOY net productivity 4.02 2.08 1.17 4.08Virginia Rail (RALI) - reproductive index 1.16 1.27 1.31 1.33Muskrat (ONZI) - house density in drowned river mouth wetlands 1.42 4.39 1.75 37.25

Lower River Golden Shiner - suitable feeding habitat area 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03Wetlands fish - abundance index 0.87 0.90 0.84 0.97Migratory wildfowl - habitat area 1.03 1.03 0.97 1.00Least Bittern - reproductive index 1.03 1.06 1.00 1.06Virginia Rail (RALI) - reproductive index 0.94 0.97 1.06 1.00Migratory wildfowl - productivity 1.06 1.00 1.00 1.03Black Tern (CHNI) - reproductive index 0.84 0.77 1.00 0.77Northern Pike (ESLU) - reproductive area 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.94Frog sp. - reproductive habitat surface area 0.87 0.87 1.03 0.94

Eastern Sand Darter (AMPE) - reproductive area 1.10 1.03 1.13 1.06Spiny Softshell Turtle (APSP) - reproductive habitat surface area 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.03

Bridle Shiner (NOBI) - reproductive habitat surface area 1.00 0.97 1.00 1.03Muskrat (ONZI) - surviving houses 1.04 0.88 0.96 0.80

Percentage "good" scores for each plan 0.09 0.22 0.16 0.34

J oe Depinto's Pretty Good Overall Environmental Index 1.06 1.35 1.10 4.04

Low Veg 18C - spawning habitat supply 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.04

Plan A+ Plan B+ Plan D+ Plan ETotal $7.52 $6.48 $6.52 -$12.30

-$0.62 -$1.11 $0.32 -$25.96Ontario -$0.36 -$0.60 $0.25 -$23.12

Shore Protection Maintenance -$0.23 -$0.49 $0.27 -$12.98 Erosion to Unprotected Developed Parcels -$0.13 -$0.10 -$0.02 -$0.29

Flooding -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$9.85

Upper St. Lawrence River $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1.56

Flooding $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1.56St. Lawrence -$0.25 -$0.51 $0.07 -$1.27

Flooding -$0.22 -$0.47 -$0.02 -$1.21

Shore Protection Maintenance -$0.03 -$0.04 $0.09 -$0.07

$0.41 $2.20 $2.31 $4.13

Ontario -$0.04 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.01 Seaway $0.53 $2.28 $2.35 $4.15

Montreal down -$0.08 -$0.06 -$0.03 $0.00$3.50 $5.97 $1.84 $14.16

NYPA-OPG $3.51 $4.16 $1.06 $10.24

Hydro Quebec -$0.01 $1.81 $0.78 $3.93

$4.23 -$0.58 $2.05 -$4.63 Above Dam $2.21 -$0.62 $0.51 -$5.91 Ontario $1.29 -$0.64 $0.13 -$5.03 Alex Bay $0.89 -$0.05 $0.32 -$0.86 Ogdensburg $0.01 $0.00 $0.01 -$0.09 Lake St. Lawrence $0.02 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 Below Dam $2.02 $0.04 $1.53 $1.27 Lac St. Louis $1.13 $0.17 $0.78 $0.78 Montreal $0.70 -$0.02 $0.58 $0.41 Lac St. Pierre $0.19 -$0.10 $0.17 $0.08

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 SL One time infrastructure costs $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 LSL Water Quality Investments $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

M&I

COASTAL

COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION

HYDROPOWER

RECREATIONAL BOATING

Historic vs. 58DD

Plan A+ Plan B+ Plan D+ Plan ETotal $6.44 $4.63 $4.49 -$16.37

-$0.10 -$2.84 -$0.10 -$28.50Ontario $0.46 -$2.52 -$0.23 -$27.16

Shore Protection Maintenance $0.57 -$2.16 -$0.17 -$19.85Erosion to Unprotected Developed Parcels -$0.23 -$0.17 $0.02 -$0.58

Flooding $0.12 -$0.20 -$0.08 -$6.72

Upper St. Lawrence River $0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.75

Flooding $0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.75St. Lawrence -$0.57 -$0.31 $0.14 -$0.59

Flooding -$0.51 -$0.22 $0.09 -$0.49

Shore Protection Maintenance -$0.06 -$0.09 $0.05 -$0.10

$0.47 $2.13 $1.53 $3.21

Ontario -$0.03 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.02 Seaway $0.57 $2.16 $1.56 $3.21

Montreal down -$0.07 -$0.02 -$0.02 $0.02$2.26 $6.09 $1.64 $12.39

NYPA-OPG $2.18 $3.87 $0.48 $8.57

Hydro Quebec $0.08 $2.22 $1.16 $3.82

$3.81 -$0.74 $1.42 -$3.46 Above Dam $1.20 -$1.42 -$0.36 -$5.31 Ontario $0.70 -$1.18 -$0.44 -$4.93 Alex Bay $0.47 -$0.29 $0.03 -$0.36 Ogdensburg $0.01 $0.00 $0.01 -$0.07 Lake St. Lawrence $0.01 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 Below Dam $2.61 $0.68 $1.78 $1.85 Lac St. Louis $1.39 $0.49 $0.89 $1.03 Montreal $0.93 $0.19 $0.68 $0.64 Lac St. Pierre $0.29 $0.00 $0.21 $0.18

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 SL One time infrastructure costs $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 LSL Water Quality Investments $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

M&I

COASTAL

COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION

HYDROPOWER

RECREATIONAL BOATING

50,000 stochastic lelves

74.20

74.30

74.40

74.50

74.60

74.70

74.80

74.90

75.00

75.10

75.20

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

qrtr month

Avg 1961-2000 Avg 1900-1960

A

B

D

Post 1960

Pre-1960

247.04/

246.06/

248.02/

1973 Lake Ontario Levels( m IGLD 1985)

74.1

74.4

74.7

75.0

75.3

75.6

75.9

76.2

1973 1973.25 1973.5 1973.75 1974

Plan58DD

PlanA

PlanB

PlanD

PlanE

1993 Lake Ontario Levels( m IGLD 1985)

74.1

74.4

74.7

75.0

75.3

75.6

75.9

76.2

1993 1993.25 1993.5 1993.75 1994

Plan58DD

PlanA

PlanB

PlanD

PlanE

248.02/

247.04/

246.06/

Quality of Life?????Future view of Lake Ontario from the South Shore

Final Thoughts

1. At IJC meetings this year, please don’t let environmental groups have final word. We let our elected officials speak for us last summer and this did not have same weight as individuals speaking for themselves. Please stay and make comments even if it takes some time to get to microphone.

2. Call or write your Federal Representative. We live in Congresswoman Louise Slaughter’s district but many of us work in Congressman Tom Reynolds’ district. A problem with with our homes would affect many businesses!

Congresswoman Louise Slaughter, 3120 Federal Building, Rochester, NY, 14614, Telephone # 232-4850

Congressman Tom Reynolds, 1577 W. ridge Rd., Rochester, NY 14615, Telephone # 663-5570

Don’t be confused by terminology. The environmental groups were misleading last summer when they said there would be lower lows with their preferred plan, Plan B) it lower end is higher than present plan. They want a lower high(mid summer)level. Around 245.5ft. Very bad for recreational boaters.

Final Thoughts Page Two

Ideas for letters:

• Why was first floor flooding only economic evaluated for damages. Wave induced damages was not evaluated.

• What will be effect on FEMA flood insurance if operating range changed? Question was asked numerous times to no avail.

• Why was not value of properties used for damages? Only cost of shore protection. Also damages to private property without shore protection not part of economics. Public lands tax payer financed also not included it is assumed that erosion of this land is source of beach sand and has no value.

• Present breakwalls and houses built to present standards. If changed how will costs be paid to rebuild to new standards.