grain rice

9

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global production for 2015/16 is cut from last month, mostly on crop reductions for Brazil,

Pakistan, and the Philippines. Trade is revised down slightly, as higher exports for India are

more than offset by declines for Pakistan and Egypt, and smaller imports for Turkey. Global

stocks are revised lower this month largely on a reduction for Japan (primarily due to higher

consumption). The U.S. season-average farm price is lowered.

From 2012 to 2015, rice consumption in the European Union (EU) rose marginally and steadily

alongside population growth. Because the region does not produce rice in large quantities, the

EU relies on imports to meet domestic demand. Recently, Thailand, India, and Pakistan have

accounted for the largest share of imports.

Over the past 4 years, however, an increasing proportion of imports have come from other

origins. Under the Everything-But-Arms arrangement, rice imports from Cambodia and Burma

gained duty free access, which expanded in 2009 due to the expiration of the quantitative limits

on imported rice. Imports from Guyana doubled last year, as exporters diverted more shipments

away from Venezuela and to EU. In all, EU imported a record 1.8 million tons in 2015, nearly

40 percent of which arrived from Cambodia, Burma, and Guyana. Long grain rice shipments

from these sources are expected to remain strong and to account for a significant portion of the

EU’s imports this year.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f

EU Imports from Cambodia, Burma and Guyana Rise Substantially

Guyana

Myanmar

Cambodia

OtherTho

usa

nd

Me

tric

To

ns

Burma

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2016Office of Global Analysis

10

Although total imports have declined since 2012, basmati (fragrant) rice has accounted for an

increasing share of Iraqi imports over the past 4 years. In 2015, Iraq imported 450,000 tons of

basmati rice from India. Combined basmati imports from India and Pakistan comprised a mere 2

percent of Iraq’s total rice imports in 2010; however, last year, Indian basmati rice alone

accounted for nearly half of total imports. The majority of these basmati imports are of the

sharbati variety, which is quoted at lower prices than other premium quality varieties, although

higher than non-fragrant long-grain. The increase in basmati rice imports may suggest a shift in

consumer preferences in Iraq, although a demand for non-fragrant rice imports remains.

Iraq was a significant market for U.S. rice, routinely receiving more than 100,000 tons annually

in prior decades. Along with a small amount of private trading, Iraq administers open tenders

and invites selected countries to bid for rice imports. In 2015, a U.S. supplier won a share of a

tender and shipped slightly more than 60,000 tons.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f

Tho

usa

nd

Me

tric

To

ns

Iraq Importing* Less Long-Grain, More Basmati Rice

Pakistan (Basmati)

Other

India (Non-Basmati)

United States

Uruguay

Pakistan (Non-Basmati)

India (Basmati)

Thailand

*import data derived from reported exporters data


11

This month, U.S. export quotes for bulk shipments continued to slide on weak fresh demand,

falling below $450/ton for the first time since August 2015. However, U.S. quotes maintain a

premium over South American and Asian sources. Uruguayan quotes slid 4 percent from the

prior month with additional supplies from the new crop harvest. Thai quotes increased a

marginal 2 percent to $373/ton and Vietnamese quotes climbed 5 percent to $381/ton on

expected regional demand.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2016

Brazil’s imports are raised 100,000 tons to 800,000 on higher import demand resulting

from smaller crop.

Egypt’s exports are slashed 150,000 tons to 250,000 on a newly-implemented rice export

ban.

European Union’s imports are revised up 100,000 tons to 1.6 million on stronger

imports to date.

India’s exports are raised 400,000 tons to 9.0 million on higher levels of trade to the

Middle East.

Pakistan’s exports are reduced 200,000 tons to 4.4 million on smaller exportable

supplies.

Senegal’s imports are cut 115,000 tons to 985,000 due to higher production.

Turkey’s imports are trimmed 130,000 tons to 200,000 on lower consumption.

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

$/MT U.S. Export Quotes Slide,

Reducing Premium Over Competitors

THAI 100B VIET 5% UGY 5% U.S. #2/4 (long-grain) BULK


World Rice Trade

January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Mar

2015/16

Apr

none

TY Exports

480480310494526608 Argentina

7508008958528301,105 Brazil

1,8001,8001,7351,6881,1631,357 Burma

9009001,1501,0001,075900 Cambodia

350350262393447267 China

250400250600700600 Egypt

270270251284203194 European Union

520520536502346265 Guyana

9,0008,60011,04611,58810,48010,250 India

4,4004,6004,0003,6004,1263,399 Pakistan

500500407380365262 Paraguay

190190163187140314 Russia

10,00010,0009,77910,9696,7226,945 Thailand

9509507189579391,056 Uruguay

7,0007,0006,6066,3256,7007,717 Vietnam

9881,0081,1381,2611,4251,430 Others

38,34838,36839,24641,08036,18736,669 Subtotal

3,3253,3253,4722,9983,2953,298 United States

41,67341,69342,71844,07839,48239,967 World Total

none

TY Imports

450450450496430360 Angola

6006005701,29011453 Bangladesh

800700365586712732 Brazil

530530525610550450 Cameroon

5,0005,0005,1504,4503,5002,900 China

8008001,1009508301,265 Cote d'Ivoire

500500575377413330 Cuba

1,6001,5001,7861,5561,3751,313 European Union

580600500590725595 Ghana

2,0002,0001,1981,2256501,960 Indonesia

1,4501,4501,3001,6502,2201,500 Iran

1,1501,2001,0091,0801,2941,478 Iraq

700700688669690650 Japan

460460450440410400 Kenya

1,0201,0201,0519898851,006 Malaysia

700700708658746680 Mexico

500500480500500445 Mozambique

500500529510340351 Nepal

2,5002,5003,0003,2002,4003,400 Nigeria

2,0002,0002,0001,8001,0001,500 Philippines

1,4501,4501,4201,4101,3261,193 Saudi Arabia

9851,100990960902918 Senegal

1,0001,000912910990870 South Africa

460460460450440430 United Arab Emirates

500500500480500375 Venezuela

10,90911,04810,95812,46311,72511,042 Others

39,14439,26838,67440,29935,66736,196 Subtotal

1,7541,6503,2863,0243,1403,131 Unaccounted

775775758755675640 United States

41,67341,69342,71844,07839,48239,967 World Total

TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: 2015/16 is calendar year 2016, 2014/15 is calendar year 2015, and so on.


World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Mar

2015/16

Apr

none

Milled Production

34,50034,60034,50034,39033,82033,700 Bangladesh

7,6007,9058,4658,3008,0377,888 Brazil

12,20012,20012,60011,95711,71511,473 Burma

4,3504,3504,7004,7254,6704,268 Cambodia

145,770145,770144,560142,530143,000140,700 China

4,0004,0004,5304,7504,6754,250 Egypt

103,000103,000105,480106,646105,240105,310 India

35,30035,30035,56036,30036,55036,500 Indonesia

7,6537,6537,8497,9317,9077,792 Japan

4,3274,3274,2414,2304,0064,224 Korea, South

6,7006,9006,9006,7985,5366,160 Pakistan

11,35011,50011,91511,85811,42810,710 Philippines

3,3003,3002,8502,8402,6753,138 Sri Lanka

15,80015,90018,75020,46020,20020,460 Thailand

28,10028,20028,16628,16127,53727,152 Vietnam

40,57440,07940,62340,42239,04038,025 Others

464,524464,984471,689472,298466,036461,750 Subtotal

6,1076,1077,1066,1176,3485,866 United States

470,631471,091478,795478,415472,384467,616 World Total

none

Consumption and Residual

35,40035,50035,10034,90034,50034,300 Bangladesh

7,8407,9407,9297,9007,8507,928 Brazil

10,65010,65010,65010,45010,40010,200 Burma

3,6003,6003,6003,6503,5503,400 Cambodia

150,300150,300148,000146,300144,000139,600 China

3,8004,0004,0004,0004,0503,620 Egypt

98,50098,90098,23398,71094,03193,334 India

38,10038,10038,30038,50038,12738,188 Indonesia

8,6008,3008,6008,3808,3518,376 Japan

4,3904,3904,4154,4224,4894,880 Korea, South

3,6003,6003,7163,8113,3533,677 Nepal

5,8505,8505,8005,8005,3005,600 Nigeria

13,25013,25013,20012,85012,85012,860 Philippines

11,00011,20010,90010,87510,60010,400 Thailand

21,85021,90022,00022,00021,90019,650 Vietnam

61,48461,26061,03461,25358,83456,799 Others

480,227480,378478,389477,634464,869457,333 Subtotal

3,8533,8534,1553,9773,7793,492 United States

484,080484,231482,544481,611468,648460,825 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

47,75647,75647,63646,80246,83245,023 China

13,26613,26617,76622,75725,44025,100 India

3,1593,1593,9595,5016,4767,403 Indonesia

2,4943,1802,8213,0072,8572,735 Japan

1,5911,5911,188899780755 Korea, South

2,3102,4602,2101,6951,4871,509 Philippines

5,1954,99510,09511,72412,8089,330 Thailand

13,02012,71416,39013,95612,72613,668 Others

88,79189,121102,065106,341109,406105,523 Subtotal

1,3771,3931,5521,0251,1561,303 United States

90,16890,514103,617107,366110,562106,826 World Total

Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.


Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Mar

2015/16

Apr

2015/16

TY Imports none

1,664 North America 1,776 1,771 1,816 1,835 1,835

845 Caribbean 971 903 1,176 1,075 1,075

1,881 South America 1,833 1,814 1,680 1,947 1,997

120 Other Europe 125 132 128 125 135

469 Former Soviet Union - 12 557 567 387 411 411

6,455 Middle East 7,152 6,637 5,981 6,370 6,195

777 North Africa 487 480 466 455 455

11,853 Sub-Saharan Africa 11,567 12,669 11,497 11,370 11,255

4,389 East Asia 5,349 6,043 6,681 6,635 6,636

737 South Asia 722 2,581 1,569 1,270 1,270

5,488 Southeast Asia 3,606 5,027 5,494 6,215 6,220

2,158 Others 2,197 2,430 2,557 2,335 2,435

36,836 Total 36,342 41,054 39,432 40,043 39,919

Production none

5,979 North America 6,479 6,248 7,285 6,241 6,260

1,002 Caribbean 974 1,054 1,104 976 996

15,215 South America 15,852 16,384 16,365 16,056 15,760

2,139 European Union - 28 2,100 1,937 1,963 2,005 2,055

1,294 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,294 1,205 1,185 1,261 1,262

2,170 Middle East 2,251 2,450 2,443 2,392 2,392

4,289 North Africa 4,704 4,789 4,530 4,000 4,000


155,488 East Asia 157,843 157,681 159,560 160,520 160,520

152,027 South Asia 150,631 154,490 153,331 151,420 151,120

113,649 Southeast Asia 115,490 116,867 115,367 111,001 110,651

1,362 Others 1,494 1,326 1,224 847 847

467,616 Total 472,384 478,415 478,795 471,091 470,631

Domestic Consumption none

4,668 North America 4,977 5,202 5,369 5,083 5,083

1,156 Central America 1,171 1,193 1,243 1,247 1,252

1,977 Caribbean 1,954 1,992 2,138 2,078 2,098

14,130 South America 14,354 14,542 14,577 14,766 14,605

3,300 European Union - 28 3,250 3,250 3,320 3,280 3,380

1,435 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,579 1,551 1,403 1,426 1,426

8,603 Middle East 8,854 9,029 8,915 8,902 8,895

4,045 North Africa 4,572 4,480 4,430 4,430 4,230


156,212 East Asia 160,349 162,692 164,324 166,270 166,540

137,167 South Asia 137,462 143,476 143,540 144,570 144,070

99,128 Southeast Asia 101,994 103,092 103,664 103,761 103,541

667 Others 707 708 554 495 510

456,304 Total 465,964 477,778 479,632 482,593 482,067

Ending Stocks none

1,455 North America 1,345 1,176 1,704 1,506 1,509

235 Central America 189 208 242 229 229

343 Caribbean 289 266 265 199 238

1,656 South America 1,591 1,902 2,116 1,747 1,723

1,146 European Union - 28 1,188 1,163 1,237 1,176 1,232

1,526 Middle East 2,039 1,836 1,583 1,331 1,250

487 North Africa 427 602 916 541 891


48,887 East Asia 50,832 50,996 51,947 52,814 52,169

27,461 South Asia 26,819 25,629 21,785 16,605 16,446

21,371 Southeast Asia 23,197 21,399 19,051 12,573 12,606

40 Oceania 238 241 182 68 68

134 Others 179 161 106 105 103

106,826 Total 110,562 107,366 103,617 90,514 90,168

NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are

reported using local marketing years.


U.S. Grains Supply and Distribution: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Rye, and Rice

Thousand Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Production

Production Imports TY Imports Exports TY Exports Feed Dom.

Consumption

Domestic

Consumption

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

16,06534,2876,19631,51832,0014,7854,71058,105nr318,345 2013/14

20,47731,5543,32622,75223,2493,9874,06855,147nr318,771 2014/15

26,55931,9323,81021,30021,0923,2003,26655,840nr319,058 2015/16

Corn

31,292292,965128,02350,68448,783727909351,272nr1035,390 2013/14

43,974301,854135,23446,77347,359809804361,091nr1133,644 2014/15

47,286301,532133,35642,00041,9121,2501,270345,486nr1132,678 2015/16

Sorghum

8644,1272,3515,7175,362329,966nr42,665 2013/14

4682,4292,0489,2498,965271010,988nr42,590 2014/15

1,6556,0972,9217,4008,00111012715,158nr53,177 2015/16

Barley

1,7914,7751,4353363115224084,719nr41,230 2013/14

1,7114,2349352923124305133,953nr41,011 2014/15

2,1034,4041,0893003054504354,666nr41,258 2015/16

Oats

3592,7571,69329231,8661,674938nr2408 2013/14

7802,4241,30623261,7591,8521,019nr2419 2014/15

9472,7411,63730291,6001,6371,300nr3516 2015/16

Rye

742418467204234194nr2113 2013/14

1540616436262237183nr2104 2014/15

5048123555200229292nr2146 2015/16

Rice, Milled

1,0253,977nr2,9983,0057557346,1178,6159999 2013/14

1,5524,155nr3,4723,2077587837,10610,07981,187 2014/15

1,3773,853nr3,3253,1757757466,1078,72481,042 2015/16

Notes: Wheat Trade Year (TY) statistics are on July/June years. Barley, corn, sorghum, rye and oats Trade Year (TY)

statistics are on Oct/Sept years. Rice Trade Year (TY) statistics are for the subsequent calendar year; 'Imports' and

'Exports' columns contain data on the local marketing year: wheat, barley, oats and rye are June/May; corn and

sorghum are Sept/Aug; rice is Aug/July.


World Rice: Supply and Demand

Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Productio

Productio

n

TY

Exports

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Rice, Milled

464.6 103.3310.412.9316.13.2144.8 1986/87

464.8 105.3313.111.4315.13.3141.4 1987/88

490.8 111.7325.714.0332.13.3146.6 1988/89

510.4 120.6336.311.7345.33.5147.8 1989/90

519.4 126.7345.312.3351.43.5147.0 1990/91

522.8 126.7353.214.4353.23.5147.5 1991/92

524.2 123.2357.514.9354.03.6146.5 1992/93

526.1 119.0358.916.6354.73.6145.3 1993/94

540.0 117.6365.520.8364.13.7147.3 1994/95

547.3 118.1368.319.7368.83.7148.4 1995/96

565.3 120.3379.218.9381.43.8150.1 1996/97

575.2 127.7380.027.6387.43.8151.7 1997/98

587.0 134.0388.724.8394.93.8153.1 1998/99

608.8 143.1400.322.8409.33.9155.9 1999/00

594.1 146.7395.624.3399.33.9152.4 2000/01

594.3 132.9413.327.9399.53.9151.3 2001/02

563.1 103.0408.127.6378.23.8146.9 2002/03

585.4 81.7413.827.3392.53.9149.3 2003/04

596.4 74.0408.528.9400.83.9151.8 2004/05

622.2 76.5415.429.0417.84.0153.9 2005/06

625.0 75.4421.231.8420.14.0154.5 2006/07

643.5 80.9428.129.5433.64.2154.8 2007/08

668.7 92.6437.629.4449.44.2158.2 2008/09

656.2 95.0438.431.8440.74.2155.8 2009/10

672.1 100.0445.336.5450.44.2158.4 2010/11

697.2 106.8460.840.0467.64.3160.7 2011/12

704.4 110.6468.639.5472.44.4158.6 2012/13

713.4 107.4481.644.1478.44.4161.8 2013/14

713.8 103.6482.542.7478.84.4160.7 2014/15

701.5 90.2484.141.7470.64.5157.5 2015/16

Notes: Stocks, exports and consumption are expressed on a milled basis in marketing years.


55

ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

REGIONAL TABLES

North America: Canada, Mexico, the United States.

Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama.

Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British

Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies,

Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique,

Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the

Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands of the U.S.

South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas

Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.

EU: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,

Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta,

Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.

Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar,

Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland.

Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,

Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.

North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa: all African countries except North Africa.

East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia,

Taiwan.

South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives.

Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,

Thailand, Vietnam.

Oceania: Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea.


56

OTHER NOTES

Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main

harvest, when the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed

begins a country's LMY for that commodity (2015/16 starts in 2015); except for summer grains

in certain Southern Hemisphere countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second

year begins the LMY (2015/16 starts in 2016). Key exporter LMY’s are:

Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum

Argentina (Dec/Nov) Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Nov/Oct) Argentina (Mar/Feb)

Australia (Oct/Sep) Brazil (Mar/Feb) Canada (Aug/Jul) Australia (Mar/Feb)

Canada (Aug/Jul) China (Oct/Sep) European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug)

China (Jul/Jun) South Africa (May/Apr) Russia (Jul/Jun)

European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug) Ukraine (Jul/Jun)

India (Apr/Mar) United States (Jun/May)

Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)

Russia(Jul/Jun)

Turkey (Jun/May)

Ukraine (Jul/Jun)

United States (Jun/May)

For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website

(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx).

Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local

marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in

time.

Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed,

industrial, feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local

marketing year exports. Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however,

reflect food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste only.

Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables

contain Trade Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for

analytical comparisons: wheat is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye

are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.

EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union

(Croatia plus the former EU-27) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through

1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for

grains are no longer maintained in the official USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10,

plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to 1999/00.

Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain

equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled

equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and

mixed grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.


http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx

57

Unaccounted: This term includes grain in transit, reporting discrepancies in some countries,

and trade to countries outside the USDA database.

The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Office of Global Analysis, Foreign Agricultural

Service, USDA, Washington, DC 20250, prepared this circular. Information is gathered from

official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S.

agricultural attachés and Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information.

Further information may be obtained by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.

Note: The previous report in this series was Grain: World Markets and Trade March 2016. For

further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production April 2016.

This circular is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home

Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Teresa McKeivier (202) 690-1151 [email protected] Wheat

Daniel Archibald (202) 720-9432 [email protected] Wheat

Rachel Trego (202) 720-1073 [email protected] Rice

Kyle Bonsu (202) 260-8370 [email protected] Rice

Yoonhee Macke (202) 690-4199 [email protected] Coarse Grains

Andrew Sowell (202) 720-0262 [email protected] Coarse Grains

Barrett Bumpas (202) 692-0337 [email protected] Coarse Grains


http://www.fas.usda.gov/

mailto:[email protected]







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