gpsm dashboard (february 5, 2014)

G P S M P O R T F O L I O D A S H B O A R D

D E C E M B E R U P D AT E( F Y 1 2 - F Y 1 4 Q 2 )

B I L L D O R O T I N S K YA C T I N G D I R E C T O R , P R M P SF E B R U A R Y 6 2 0 1 4

Outline

• Overview/summary (pp 3-4)

• Description of the data

• Data analysis and key findings• Quantity (pg 8-14)• Quality (pg 16-19)• Impact (pg 21)• Efficiency (pg 23-27)• Staffing (pg 29-30)• Business Model (pg 32-33)• PSM Approach Implementation (pg 35-42)

Q & A

2

FY14 Q2 Overview

• Active investment lending projects mapped to the PSG sector board decreased from 80 in FY12 to 69 as of FY14Q2. The number of newly approved investment lending projects mapped to PSG also declined from 11 in FY12 to 4 in FY14Q2. However, with 13 investment lending projects in the pipeline for the rest of FY14, this trend is expected to change.

• Newly approved DPLs mapped to the PSG sector board increased from 3 in FY12 to 4 in FY13, and then decreased to 1 in FY14Q2. There are 2 DPLs in the pipeline for FY14.

• The number of active lending project components* with PSG themes (including rule of law) continue to decline, but less steeply from about 177 in FY12 to 160 in FY13, and then 155 in FY14Q2.

• Of total active PSG themed project components, PSG mapped share remained constant at about 38% from FY12 to FY14Q2. However, of total new PS themed project components, PSG mapped share declined from 26% in FY12 to 24.7% in FY13, and then to 23.94% (or 24%) in FY14Q2.

• The number of approved ESW products mapped to PSG have declined from 32 in FY12 to 11 in FY14Q2. However, with 32 products in the pipeline, the trend looks promising.

3* Project components are defined as the sum of the proportions of lending projects coded thematically as Public Sector Governance (codes 25-30, 90, 94) and Rule of Law (codes 31-37)

FY14 Q2 Overview (continued)

• Non-lending TA products mapped to PSG are also in a decline, and at a large rate. From 56 in FY12 to 43 in FY13, there are 22 TA products as of FY14Q2. Surprisingly, there are 82 TA products in the pipeline for FY14.

• Overall, PSG mapped active lending projects at risk* declined from 22 in FY12 to 18 in FY14Q2. Also, PS themed active lending project components at risk declined from about 37 in FY12 to 31 in FY14Q2.

• There is a decrease in PSG disbursement ratio from FY12 (32.7%) to FY13 (24.6%) and FY14Q2 (12.6%). Comparing January of FY12, FY13 and FY14, again we see a declining trend. However, we are not very off from FY13.

• In terms of proactivity*, except for LCR and MNA, all other regions declined from FY12 to FY14Q2. In the same period, decentralization is the only theme to show a consistent increase in proactivity.

• As of December 2014, there are 187 staff mapped to PREM-PSM. GG comprises of the largest share (53%) followed by GF (24%) and GH (21%). Of our staff, 44% are decentralized while 56% are based in HQ.

• It seems that we are providing more cross-support to Non-PS sector mapped activities than to received cross support from non-PS sector mapped staff.

4

* Project at risk = Problem projects + potential problem projects

* Proactivity is an index and is the proportion of actual problem projects on DO and/or IP that have been upgraded, restructured, suspended, closed, or cancelled

Data description

• Timeframe: FY12- FY14Q2 except for the intensity of engagement heat map which is FY10-FY14Q2

• Data: As of December 13 2013 except for ratings (January 16) and PS theme lending projects (January 15)

• PSG mapped projects: Projects mapped to PSG

• PS themed projects: Projects that have PS themes (in project components)

• Dimensions: Total, Region, Themes, Type of Product

(Lending: IL & DPL/ Non-lending: ESW & TA)

• Components: Quantity, Quality, Impact, Efficiency, Business Model, Staffing, PSM Approach Implementation

• Product line (lending): IBRD/IDA, Recipient Executed Activities (RE), Special Financing (SF)

5

Data description

• Active projects: Active projects within a snapshot FY• New projects: Projects that have been approved per FY

• 8 Public Sector Theme Codes 25- Administrative and Civil Service (Admin & CS) 26- Decentralization 27- Public Financial Management (PFM) 28- Tax Policy and Administration (Tax) 29- Other Accountability/Anti-Corruption (Accountability) 30- Other Public Sector Governance (Other PSG) 90- Managing for Development Results (Mng4R) 94- e-Government (e-Gov)

• 7 Rule of Law Theme Codes 31- Access to Law and Justice 32- Judicial and Other Dispute Resolution Mechanisms 33- Law Reform 34- Legal Institutions for a Market Economy 35- Legal Services 36- Personal and Property Rights 37- Other Rule of Law

6

1 . Q UA N T I T Y

7

Lending Volumes

8

• The number of PSG mapped active lending projects continue to decline. DPLs remain constant but still do not constitute a substantive product line.• There is 1 P4R project in FY14Q2

• The number of active investment lending project components* with PS Themes continue to decline but less steeply.

• DPL project components increased in FY13 with a slight decline in FY14Q2, and P4R is slowly increasing.

* Includes PSG and non-PSG mapped project components

165 144141

1215

12

1 20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

Number of Active Project Components with PS Themes

IN

DPL

PR

80

73 69

1 1 110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

PSG Mapped Active Lending (Number of Projects)

IN

DPL

PR

Where is the Business? PSG Mapped Active Lending Projects by Region/Lending Type(# active projects)

9

• ECA is the only region to see an increase in active investment lending in FY12-FY14Q2• EAP and AFR saw the largest declines in active investment lending in FY12-FY14Q2. However, with

several projects in the pipeline, the trend could differ by the end of FY14.• In FY14Q2, ECA has the largest share (26%) of active lending, followed by LCR and AFR which both

constitute 25% of the share.• MNA has maintained constant lending volumes in FY12-FY13

Number of PSG Mapped Active Lending Projects by Lending Instrument Type % Change, FY12-

14Q2

FY14Q2 Share of

active lending

FY14Q2 # of Pipeline

ProjectsFY12 FY13 FY14Q2

IN

AFR 24 18 17 -29% 25% 8

EAP 11 9 7 -36% 10% 1

ECA 15 17 18 20% 26% 2

LCR 19 17 17 -11% 25% 1

MNA 3 4 3 0% 4% 1

SAR 8 8 7 -13% 10%

Sub-Total 80 73 69 -14% 13

DPL

EAP 1

LCR 1 1

MNA 1 1

Sub-Total 1 1 1 0% 2

Total 81 74 70 -14% 15

Where’s the business?PSG Mapped Active Lending Project Components by PS Themes

10

PSG mapped active lending project components by theme FY12-14Q2

(# active project components)

FY14Q2 PercentagesPFM = 27%

Admin & CS = 15%Rule of Law = 12 %

Tax = 10%

* Other PSG includes capacity building, NGO and citizen accountability arrangements, etc.

• From FY12 to FY14Q2, most product lines seem to be declining• During the same period, the largest decrease is in Admin & CS by 25%• During the same period, Decentralization shows a steady increase of 8%,

while E-Gov has increased dramatically by 3 times

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

25 - Admin & CS

26 - Decentralization

27 - PFM

28 - Tax

29 - Accountability

30 - Other PSG

31-37 - Rule of Law

90 - Mng4R

94 - E-Gov

Etc

PS Themed Active and New Lending Project Components by Sector Board (percent)

11

Active lending componentsFY12 FY 13 FY 14Q2

New lending components

• Of total NEW PS theme project components, the PSG mapped share decreased slightly from 26% in FY12 to 24% in FY14Q2

• So, GPSM practice can losing ground over time…

FY12 FY 13 FY 14Q2

• Of total PS themed project components, despite shrinking number loans, the PSG mapped share remains constant at about 38 %

• So, GPSM practice is not losing ground just yet, but neither is it gaining ground…

Pipeline Lending Project Components with PS Themes

12

New Non-lending Products

13

PSG Mapped Non-lending Products(# products)

56

43

22

32

25

11

104

43

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

TA

ESW

TA with Pipeline

ESW with Pipeline

• The number of approved ESW and TA products are declining at a large rate.

• However, with the number of products in the pipeline, the trend looks promising.

*This graph shows approved products only. We took out pipeline products for FY12 and FY13

Non-Lending Products by Region

14

PSG Mapped ESW, by region, FY12-14Q2(# of products)

PSGB Mapped TA, by region, FY12-14(# of products)

PSGB ESW regional FY 14Q2 shares- AFR 27%- MNA 18%- ECA 18%- EAP 18 %- LCR 9%- SAR 9%

PSGB TA regional FY 14Q2 shares- AFR 27%- MNA 27%- ECA 18%- EAP 14%- LCR 14%- SAR 0%

FY14Q2 +pipelines

FY14Q2 +pipelines

2 . Q UA L I T Y

15

Projects and Project Components at Risk

16

PSG Mapped Active Lending Projects At Risk

Active Lending Project Components with PS Themes at Risk

• Overall, PSG mapped active lending projects at risk declined from 22 in FY12 to 18 FY14Q2• Within the totals, however, ECA increased significantly in FY13 and remained the same in FY14Q2. SAR decreased in FY13 and then experienced an increase in FY14Q2

• Overall, active lending project components with PS themes at risk declined from about 37 in FY12 to 31 in FY14Q2• EAP and MNA declined steadily over the period• Only SAR increased from FY13 to FY14Q2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

AFR

EAP

ECA

LCR

MNA

SAR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

AFR

EAP

ECA

LCR

MNA

SAR

PS Theme Project Components at Risk, by Theme (# components)

17

• Decentralization and PFM show a steady decline in projects at risk from FY12 to FY14Q2

• Admin & Civil Service, Tax, and E-Gov have increased in the past year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

25 - Admin & CS

26 - Decentralization

27 - PFM

28 - Tax

29 - Accountability

30 - Other PSG

31-37 - Rule of Law

90 - Mng4R

94 E-Gov

Active Lending Project Components with PS Themes at Risk, by Themes

Proactivity: PS Theme Active Lending Projects by Region/Sector Board

18

While proactivity is a weak measure, it is a measure looked at by management, absent better measures

From FY12-FY14Q2:• AFR improved , then fell backwards• ECA declined between FY12 and FY13 but has

improved in the past year• LCR has improved from FY12 but has been less

proactive in FY14Q2 than in FY13• MNA has improved• EAP declined from FY12 to FY13, and then

remained steady at 64.3%.• SAR improved between FY12 and FY13, then

declined

Proactivity is an index, and is the proportion of actual problem projects on DO and/or IP that have been upgraded, restructured, suspended, closed, or cancelled.

Proactivity: PS Theme Active Lending Projects by Themes/Sector Board

19

By theme,

• Proactivity in ACS, Accountability, and Other PSG have steadily declined between FY12-FY14Q2

• Decentralization is the only theme to show a consistent increase in proactivity

• Rule of Law seems to have done well in FY12, but do not have data for FY14Q2

Disbursement Ratio by Month and Fiscal Year

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dis

bu

rsem

ent

Rat

io (

%)

FY12

FY13

FY14

• Given that we are only in Q2, our disbursement ratios is projected to reach similar levels of FY13.

Aggregate disbursement ratios

21

Region FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

AFR 25.7 18.2 13.5

EAP 10.9 12.3 7.0

ECA 25.4 18.8 9.0

LCR 43.7 27.2 6.5

MNA 90.2 84.4 74.9

SAR 18.4 10.7 6.0

Overall Result 32.7 24.6 12.6

January

FY12 FY13 FY14

AFR 14.92 10.66 13.50

EAP 7.57 7.66 7.00

SAR 6.72 5.96 5.91

ECA 16.60 12.37 8.96

MNA 77.12 72.60 74.94

LCR 32.86 20.42 6.51

Overall Result 20.17 15.22 12.60

• There is a decrease in disbursement ratio from FY12 to FY13 and FY14Q2.

• Comparing January of FY12, FY13 and FY14, again we see a declining trend. However, we are not very off from FY13.

3 . I M PAC T

22

FY13-14Q2 PSG Mapped Lending Projects ISR Ratings by Indicators

23* ISR ratings are based on the latest ISR archived date

4 . E F F I C I E N C Y

24

PSG Mapped Lending Project Preparation Time (in months)

25*Projects with missing dates were excluded, only approved projects

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY12 FY13 FY14 Q2

Approval - Effectiveness (Investment Lending)

AFR

EAP

ECA

LCR

MNA

SAR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY12 FY13 FY14

AIS-Approval (Investment Lending)

AFR

EAP

ECA

LCR

MNA

SAR

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FY12 FY13 FY14

AIS-Approval (DPL)

AFR

EAP

LCR

MNA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY12 FY13 FY14

Approval-Effectiveness (DPL)

AFR

EAP

LCR

MNA

PSG Mapped Lending Average Project Size

26

PSG Mapped Lending Average Project Preparation Cost

27

PSG Mapped Lending Average Project Age (months)

28*Projects with missing dates were excluded, only approved projects

*Average project age = average of the months from project approval date to revised closing date

PSG Mapped ESW and TA New Approved Products and Costs

29

5 . S TA F F I N G

30

Staff Mapped to PSG FY14Q2

31

Staff Mapped to PSG FY14Q2

32

6 . B U S I N E S S M O D E L

33

Cross Support – PS Sector Mapped Staff to Non PS Mapped Activities (in weeks)

34

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Q2

PS Staff to Non-PS Staff (percentage)

PS staff to non-PS staff


Staff wks 874 819 1000 843 323

Number of PS staff 126 145 163 180 187

Total PS staff wks 5040 5800 6520 7200 7480

Percentage 17.3% 14.1% 15.3% 11.7% 4.3%

Cross Support – Non PS Sector Mapped Staff to PS Mapped Activities (in weeks)

35

-0.2%

0.8%

1.8%


Non-PS staff to PS staff (percentage)

Non-PS staff to PS staff


Staff wks 3443 3370 2606 1402 532

Number of non-PS Bank staff 5400 5381 5363 5346 5339

Total non-PS Bank staff wks 216000 215240 214520 213840 213560

Percentage 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2%

7 . P S M A P P R O A C H I M P L E M E N TAT I O N

36

PSG Mapped Active Lending Projects ISR Baseline FY14Q2

37

Intensity of EngagementAFR

38

* The scale refers to the number of PSG mapped active lending as of FY14Q2 and non-lending projects for a given FY.

Country FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14(Q2)

Central African Republic 0 0 1 0 0

Mali 0 0 1 0 0

Cape Verde 0 0 0 0 1

Togo 0 0 0 0 1

Seychelles 1 1 0 0 0

South Africa 1 1 0 0 0

Swaziland 0 1 1 0 0

Guinea 0 0 1 1 1

Botswana 1 1 1 0 0

Equatorial Guinea 1 1 1 0 0

Malawi 0 1 0 1 1

Angola 0 0 1 1 1

Zambia 1 1 0 1 1

Cote d'Ivoire 1 1 1 1 0

Mauritius 0 0 1 2 1

Chad 1 1 1 1 1

Ghana 0 3 2 0 0

Lesotho 0 0 1 2 2

Cameroon 1 1 3 1 0

Burundi 2 3 2 0 0

Sierra Leone 1 1 1 2 2

Guinea-Bissau 1 1 2 2 1

Congo, Republic of 2 1 2 2 1

Ethiopia 1 2 3 1 1

Mauritania 1 2 2 1 2

Uganda 2 2 2 1 2

Sudan 3 3 2 1 0

Madagascar 1 2 2 2 2

Zimbabwe 1 1 2 3 2

Kenya 1 2 1 3 3

Rwanda 1 4 3 2 1

Liberia 3 2 2 2 2

Niger 2 2 2 1 4

Mozambique 2 3 4 1 1

Burkina Faso 3 2 2 3 2

Congo, Democratic Republic of 1 4 5 3 4

Tanzania 3 5 4 3 3

Nigeria 4 6 6 6 4

Region FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14(Q2)

Africa 1 2 4 4 6

Intensity of EngagementEAP

39


Myanmar 0 0 0 1 1

Mongolia 1 1 0 0 1

China 1 1 1 1 0

Cambodia 0 2 2 1 0

Solomon Islands 0 1 2 1 1

Malaysia 1 2 2 1 1

Vanuatu 1 0 2 2 2

Thailand 1 2 3 3 2

Timor-Leste 1 5 3 2 1

Lao People's Democratic Republic 3 5 4 1 2

Vietnam 3 4 4 3 5

Philippines 4 6 6 3 0

Indonesia 8 5 8 3 3


Pacific Islands 0 0 0 0 1

East Asia and Pacific 1 2 2 2 2

Intensity of EngagementECA

40


Czech Republic 0 0 1 0 0

Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of 1 1 0 0 0

Uzbekistan 1 1 0 0 0

Montenegro 0 0 1 0 1

Poland 0 0 1 1 0

Slovak Republic 0 0 1 1 0

Belarus 0 1 0 1 1

Azerbaijan 1 1 1 1 1

Kosovo 1 1 1 1 1

Turkey 1 1 0 1 2

Serbia 1 1 1 1 1

Georgia 1 1 2 1 1

Albania 2 2 1 2 2

Moldova 2 2 2 2 2

Croatia 2 2 2 2 3

Armenia 3 2 2 3 3

Kyrgyz Republic 2 2 2 3 4

Tajikistan 2 2 2 4 3

Ukraine 2 2 2 5 4

Russian Federation 4 3 4 6 7

Kazakhstan 7 13 7 5 5

Romania 2 16 16 5 6


Europe and Central Asia 1 5 6 2 2

Intensity of EngagementLCR

41


Guatemala 1 0 0 0 0

Dominica 1 0 0 0 0

Haiti 1 0 0 0 1

Ecuador 0 0 0 1 1

Grenada 1 1 1 0 0

Panama 0 1 1 1 1

Dominican Republic 1 0 1 1 2

Uruguay 1 1 2 2 1

Paraguay 1 1 2 2 2

Honduras 3 1 1 1 2

Nicaragua 1 2 1 2 2

Bolivia 1 2 2 3 3

Chile 4 3 2 1 1

El Salvador 3 2 3 3 3

Peru 2 5 4 2 2

Colombia 3 3 2 3 5

Mexico 5 5 5 3 2

Brazil 6 7 3 4 6

Argentina 5 6 7 5 4


Latin America 1 4 2 5 6

Intensity of EngagementMNA

42


Lebanon 1 1 0 0 0

Bahrain 1 1 0 0 0

Syrian Arab Republic 1 2 0 0 0

Oman 0 0 0 1 2

United Arab Emirates 1 0 1 1 2

Kuwait 1 2 1 1 0

Egypt, Arab Republic of 3 2 0 0 1

Djibouti 0 1 2 2 1

Jordan 1 3 2 2 2

Saudi Arabia 0 0 1 5 4

Tunisia 2 3 4 1 1

West Bank and Gaza 1 4 2 4 2

Yemen, Republic of 1 4 4 2 2

Morocco 3 4 2 2 3

Iraq 6 6 3 2 5


Middle East and North Africa 2 5 9 8 5

Intensity of EngagementSAR

43


Nepal 1 1 0 0 0

Bhutan 2 1 0 0 0

Maldives 1 1 1 1 0

Sri Lanka 1 1 3 3 1

India 3 3 3 3 1

Pakistan 3 4 4 5 3

Afghanistan 4 3 5 5 4

Bangladesh 1 5 9 5 3


South Asia 0 1 1 0 1

P4R Projects by Region/Sector Board

44

Q & A

45

E X T R A S L I D E S

46

PSG Mapped Newly Approved Projects

47

gpsm dashboard (february 5, 2014)

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