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Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

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Page 1: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Good Timing

Peter MautheSpectrum Financial Inc.

May 15, 2004

Page 2: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

OBJECTIVE

IS to Make Money!

Page 3: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

OBJECTIVE is NOT to be right

Page 4: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

APPROACH: Find or make price streams that are

smooth and offer superior performance.

Page 5: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Baskets Pros:

enhanced betas, enhanced

performance, trade all day, unique

price stream, smooth price

stream, can easily target market hot spots

Cons: trade all day, transaction costs

need to be managed,

slippage needs to be managed,

trading and tracking of baskets

Page 6: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Biotech Holders vs. Equal Weighted BasketBasket equals or betters the performance of the Holders

Page 7: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Industrials vs. Equal Weighted Dow BasketBasket equals or betters the performance of the Holders

Page 8: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

IBD 100 Basket vs. NASDAQ CompositeBasket far outperforms the NASDAQ Composite

Page 9: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Lowry's Power Bank basket vs. NASDAQ Composite.(vs. BKX which was +46.29%)

Page 10: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Lowry's Power Oil basket vs. NASDAQ Composite.(vs. OIH which was +26.89%)

Page 11: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Lowry's Power REIT basket vs. NASDAQ Composite.(vs. IYR Real Estate ETF which was +45.05%)

Page 12: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Top small cap growth fund picks vs. Rydex Mekros (1.5x enhanced beta)Mekros outperforms the average of our favorite small cap growth fundsFOCUS ON STYLE SECTOR RATHER THAN SPECIFIC FUNDS

Page 13: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

CRUSH basket 1/14/03 – 3/11/03 vs. NASDAQ CompositeThose that go down the most in a correction tend to go up the

most in the following rally.

Page 14: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

CRUSH Basket 7/14/03 – 8/8/03 vs. NASDAQ Composite Those that go down the most in a correction tend to go up the

most in the following rally.

Page 15: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Lowry's “Power” REIT basket vs. NASDAQ Composite.(vs. IYR Real Estate ETF which was +45.05%)

Page 16: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Position Sizing Dollar loss stops Percent loss stops % of Capital stops – dependent on

where trade stop is.

Dynamic stops to keep positions from getting too large.

Page 17: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Trading by ExposureHedge Fund Start of Day % Long vs. NASDAQ

Composite

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

NASDAQ Comp.

Hedge % Long

Average % Long:

2003 = 69%

2003 post March low = 78%

Page 18: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Hedge Fund Formula Return using Russell 2000 vs. Russell 2000

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Russell 2000

Hypothetical return assuming invested

in the Russell 2000

Page 19: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Profile ForecastingS&P 500 vs. 4 Prior Periods of the S&P 500

as of the Close 05/05/04

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

9-Oct-02 6-Jan-03 2-Apr-03 27-Jun-03 23-Sep-03 17-Dec-03 16-Mar-04 0-Jan-00 0-Jan-00

Page 20: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Behavioral Finance More errors are made when a

trader has a forecast. Objectivity is compromised since subconsciously the trader tends to interpret indicators to fit the forecast.

Page 21: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Good News / Bad News Discount Model

Page 22: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Trend line anchoring

Page 23: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004
Page 24: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Discretionary vs. Systematic Discretionary: + Performance

- Repeatability

Systematic: + Repeatability - Performance

Page 25: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

Moving average / New High Strategy

Page 26: Good Timing Peter Mauthe Spectrum Financial Inc. May 15, 2004

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