Recommendation BUY

CMP 783.25

Target Price 877.00

ISIN: INE102D01028 APRIL 28th

, 2014

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED Result Update: Q4 FY14

STOCK DETAILS

Sector FMCG

BSE Code 532424

Face Value 1.00

52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 977.40/672.00

Volume (2wk. Avg ) 3235

Market Cap ( Rs in mn ) 266618.30

Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)

Years FY14A FY15E FY16E

Net Sales 76024.10 86667.47 97067.57

EBITDA 12130.20 14085.64 15626.68

Net Profit 7597.30 8829.05 9898.07

EPS 22.32 25.94 29.08

P/E 35.09 30.20 26.94

Shareholding Pattern (%)

1 Year Comparative Graph

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD S&P BSE SENSEX

SYNOPSIS

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is a major player in the Indian FMCG market, with leading Household & Personal Care Products.

Consolidated Net sales (Net of Excise Duty) for the quarter increased by 12% to Rs. 19240.1 mn, compared to Rs. 17176.5 mn in Q4 FY13.

Consolidated net profit stood at Rs. 2362.80 mn against Rs. 3341.40 mn in Q4 FY13.

Consolidated EBITDA increased by 9.50% to Rs. 3587.9 mn against Rs. 2983.9 mn in Q4 FY13.

India branded business grows 12% and International business grows 17% on a constant currency basis, during the quarter.

During the quarter, the Company has acquired balance 49% stake in Nigeria business of Darling Group and additional 4.63% stake in South Africa and Mozambique business of Darling Group through its subsidiary Godrej Mauritius Africa Holdings Ltd.

GCPL has declared a fourth Interim dividend for FY 2013-14 @ 2.25 per share of face value Re. 1 each.

During Q4 FY14, in Africa sales grew by 39% with a healthy 15% EBITDA margin.

Megasari in Indonesia Sales growth excluding foods distribution of 5% (constant currency – 12%).

Latin America had a good quarter with 28% sales growth in constant currency terms. INR growth was 5%.

Europe business reported growth of 16% EBITDA margins were down y/y due to lower sales leverage, higher A&P spends, and high base.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 8% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND

COMPANY NAME (Rs.) Rs. in Mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 783.25 266618.30 22.32 35.09 7.06 525.00

Hindustan Unilever Ltd 580.60 1255661.50 17.49 33.20 46.97 1300.00

Procter & Gamble Ltd 3402.00 110431.40 72.49 46.93 13.74 250.00

Marico Ltd 204.55 131908.80 7.90 25.83 6.62 100.00

Recommendation & Analysis - ‘BUY’

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd a leading FMCG company has reported consolidated Net sales (Net of Excise Duty)

for the quarter increased by 12% to Rs. 19240.1 mn, compared to Rs. 17176.5 mn in Q4 FY13. India business

grows 12% with ahead of the market growth across core categories and International business grows 17% on a

constant currency basis, during the quarter. Consolidated EBITDA increased by 9.50% to Rs. 3587.9 mn against

Rs. 2983.9 mn in Q4 FY13. India business EBITDA grows 19% and International business EBITDA grows 36%. In

Q4 FY14, Consolidated Net Profit after Minority Interest stood at Rs. 2362.8 mn.

Household insecticides category sales growth returns back to normalcy at +17%; well ahead of the category.

GCPL continues to drive market share gains aided by success of Good knight Fast card and HIT Anti Roach Gel.

The new launch of Good knight Xpress LV will bring further gains to GCPL franchise. Soaps category sales value

grows at 1%, well ahead of the category growth which is facing significant pressure in terms of consumer offtake.

The Company has recently launched a new variant for Godrej No. 1 ‘Lavender and Milk Cream’. Strong

momentum in hair colours was maintained, delivering sales growth at +16% despite anniversarisation of Expert

Crème launch.

Megasari in Indonesia Sales growth excluding foods distribution of 5% (constant currency – 12%). HIT and Stella

continue to strengthen their market share positions. EBITDA margin was healthy at 18%. The new air freshener

product, Stella car membrane assumed market leadership within 8 months of launch. Africa delivered a strong

quarter. Sales grew by 39% with a healthy 15% EBITDA margin, driven by healthy Darling performance. GCPL

continues to strengthen and build processes and talent infrastructure for sustainable growth in Darling

geographies. Nigeria became the first Darling business to come under 100% GCPL control. Latin America had a

good quarter with 28% sales growth in constant currency terms. INR growth was 5%. Sales growth was led by

market share gains and new product launches. UK business reported a growth rate of 16%. EBITDA margins

were down y/y due to lower sales leverage, higher A&P spends, and high base.

The overall macro outlook remains turbulent. While the pace of economic recovery remains uncertain, we are

hopeful that consumer sentiment will become more positive and we will see better growth in the sector in the

quarters ahead. Over FY2013-16E, we expect the company to post a CAGR of 15% and 8% in its top-line and

bottom-line respectively. Hence, we recommend ‘BUY’ for ‘Godrej Consumer Products Ltd’ with a target price of

Rs. 877.00 for medium to long term investment.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS CONSOLIDATED

Results updates- Q4 FY14,

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is a major

player in the Indian FMCG market, with leading

Household and Personal Care Products, reported its

financial results for the quarter ended 31st March,

2014.

Months Mar-14 Mar-13 % Change

Revenue 19315.20 17193.90 12.34%

PAT 2362.80 3341.40 -29.29%

EPS 6.94 9.82 -29.31%

EBITDA 3587.90 2983.90 20.24%

The company’s net profit fell to Rs. 2362.80 million against Rs. 3341.40 million in the corresponding quarter

ending of previous year, a decrease of 29.29%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 12.34% to Rs. 19315.20 million

from Rs. 17193.90 million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the

company stood at Rs. 6.94 a share during the quarter, registering 29.31% decrease over previous year period.

Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 3587.90 millions as against Rs. 2983.90 millions in the

corresponding period of the previous year.

Expenditure :

Break up of Expenditure

(Rs. in millions)

Q4 FY14 Q4 FY13 CHNG

%

Cost of Raw Materials

including packing

material Consumed

7613.30 6835.70 11%

Purchase of stock in

trade 1126.00 1062.80 6%

Employee Benefits

Expenses 1853.00 1712.50 8%

Depreciation &

Amortization Expenses 128.20 160.20 -20%

Advertisement &

Publicity 1457.80 1710.00 -15%

Other Expenditure 3357.60 3105.20 8%

Latest Updates

• Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has declared a fourth Interim dividend for FY 2013-14 @ 2.25 per share of

face value Re. 1 each. Recommended that the four interim dividends pertaining to the Financial year 2013-14

declared by the company and aggregating to Rs. 5.25 per share (525% on the shares of the face value of Re. 1

each), be declared as final dividend for the year ended March 31, 2014.

• During the quarter, the Company has acquired balance 49% stake in Nigeria business of Darling Group and

additional 4.63% stake in South Africa and Mozambique business of Darling Group through its subsidiary

Godrej Mauritius Africa Holdings Ltd.

• During the quarter, the Company has granted 84,250 new stock grants to eligible employees under the ESGS

and allotted 51,385 equity shares upon exercise of stock grants under the ESGS.

• 4 of GCPL brands ranked in 100 Most Trusted Brands 2013 by Brand Equity

� Goodknight

� Cinthol

� Godrej No.1

� Godrej Expert Powder Hair Colour

Category Review

• Household Insecticides:

Sales growth returns back to normalcy at +17%; well ahead of the category. GCPL continues to drive market

share gains aided by success of Good knight Fast card and HIT Anti Roach Gel. The Company believes that

new launch Good knight Xpress LV will bring further gains to GCPL franchise.

• Soaps:

Sales value grows at 1%, well ahead of the category growth which is facing significant pressure in terms of

consumer offtake. Category de-grew both in value and volume terms in mid to high single digits respectively.

Company has recently launched a new variant for Godrej No. 1 ‘Lavender and Milk Cream’. It has also started

a 360 degree media campaign for Cinthol ‘Cool’ soap ahead of summers.

• Hair Colours:

Strong momentum in hair colours was maintained, delivering sales growth at +16% despite

anniversarisation of Expert Crème launch. Growth rates were significantly ahead of category growth rates. It

has launched new packaging for Expert Advanced Gel based hair colours. Godrej has also launched a twin use

pack for Expert Crème. Ongoing initiatives such as salon engagement programs, festival linked promotions,

etc. to drive higher consumption and penetration for the category continued to deliver healthy results.

• Aer:

Aer continues to do well aid by their consumer engagement initiatives. The product was launched in gel

format for both click and twist format.

International Businesses

• Indonesia:

Business registered healthy constant currency sales growth of +12% (excluding the foods distribution

business). HIT and Stella continue to strengthen their market share positions. INR sales growth excluding

foods business was 5%. EBITDA margin was healthy at 18%. The new air freshener product, Stella car

membrane assumed market leadership within 8 months of launch. It has also launched Stella membrane for

home in the month of March.

• Africa

Africa delivered a strong quarter. Sales grew by 39% with a healthy 15% EBITDA margin. Constant currency

sales growth was 33% for the quarter. GCPL continues to strengthen and build processes and talent

infrastructure for sustainable growth in Darling geographies. Nigeria became the first Darling business to

come under 100% GCPL control.

• Latin America

Latin America had a good quarter with 28% sales growth in constant currency terms. INR growth was 5%.

Sales growth was led by market share gains and new product launches. Exit Hair Color marketshare

(Volume) in Argentina was highest since Jan-Feb 2012. Millefiori continued to grow market share in value,

consolidating its position as the 2nd largest brand in the Chile hair removal market. Margins improved on a

y/y basis to 20% due to healthy sales base, cost effectiveness programs, and better product mix.

• Europe

UK business reported a growth rate of 16%. EBITDA margins were down y/y due to lower sales leverage,

higher A&P spends, and high base. Bio Oil and Reimann registered strong growth rates. GCPL launched

limited edition Orange & Grapefruit and Pink Grapefruit spray and rollon in March.

Company Profile

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is a major player in the Indian FMCG market, with leading Household and

Personal Care Products. Its brands include Good Knight, Cinthol, Godrej No. 1, Expert, Nupur, Aer, Hit, Fairglow,

and Ezee are household names across the country. Company is one of the largest marketers of toilet soaps in the

country and is also leaders in hair colours and household insecticides. Four brands (GoodKnight, Cinthol, Godrej

No.1 and Godrej Expert Powder Hair Colour) are ranked among the ‘100 Most Trusted Brands’ in the country by

Economic Times - Brand Equity 2013.

The company has a strong emerging presence in markets outside India. As part of increasing global footprint, has

acquired 60% rights in Cosmetica Nacional, a Chilean hair colour company. The acquisition of the pan-African

Darling Group, and Rapidol and Kinky in South Africa have given GCPL leading positions in the fast growing

African ethnic hair care market. With acquisitions in West Africa, the Megasari Group, a leading household care

company in Indonesia and Issue Group and Argencos, two leading hair colorant companies in Argentina, Godrej

UK, and Godrej Global Mideast FZE, the company have own international brands and trademarks in Asia (ex.

India), Latam, Africa, Europe, Australia, Canada and the Middle East.

Financial Highlight CONSOLIDATED (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)

Balance sheet as at March 31st, 2013-2016E

GCPL LTD. FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Shareholder's Funds

Share Capital 340.30 340.40 340.40 340.40

Reserves and Surplus 32790.10 37413.60 43025.64 49049.23

1. Sub Total - Net worth 33130.40 37754.00 43366.04 49389.63

2. Minority Interest 2095.10 2251.00 2476.10 2599.91

Non Current Liabilities

Long term borrowings 18661.50 15902.50 14312.25 13167.27

Deferred Tax Liabilities 59.60 46.50 39.99 35.99

Other Long term Liabilities 51.40 56.20 60.70 64.34

Long Term Provisions 221.40 237.80 256.82 269.67

3. Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities 18993.90 16243.00 14669.76 13537.26

Current Liabilities

Short term borrowings 824.40 1114.80 1282.02 1423.04

Trade Payables 10348.10 12344.20 13578.62 14664.91

Other Current Liabilities 11033.20 12981.50 14409.47 15418.13

Short Term Provisions 585.20 558.90 586.85 610.32

4. Sub Total - Current Liabilities 22790.90 26999.40 29856.95 32116.40

Total Liabilities (1+2+3+4) 77010.30 83247.40 90368.85 97643.20

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Non-Current Assets

a) Fixed Assets 17284.60 17359.80 18054.19 19137.44

b) Goodwill on consolidation 29084.50 35524.50 40353.00 44762.19

c) Non-current investments 0.00 342.70 383.82 414.53

d) Deferred Tax Asset 199.80 249.70 289.65 330.20

e) Long Term loans and advances 1947.50 1573.70 1432.07 1503.67

f) Other non-current assets 10.20 14.40 16.56 18.22

1. Sub Total - Non Current Assets 48526.60 55064.80 60529.30 66166.25

Current Assets

Current Investment 1211.80 1020.00 1122.00 1222.98

Inventories 10470.90 10821.30 11254.15 11816.86

Trade receivables 7287.60 7112.80 7539.57 7916.55

Cash and Bank Balances 7476.00 7047.90 7611.73 8068.44

Short-terms loans & advances 2008.30 2169.00 2299.14 2437.09

Other current assets 29.10 10.80 12.96 15.03

2. Sub Total - Current Assets 28483.70 28181.80 29839.55 31476.94

Total Assets (1+2) 77010.30 83246.60 90368.85 97643.20

Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2013 to 2016E

Value(Rs.in.mn) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12m

Net Sales 64074.40 76024.10 86667.47 97067.57

Other Income 677.80 627.10 652.18 678.27

Total Income 64752.20 76651.20 87319.66 97745.84

Expenditure -54250.60 -64521.00 -73234.02 -82119.16

Operating Profit 10501.60 12130.20 14085.64 15626.68

Interest -774.50 -1073.70 -1224.02 -1370.90

Gross profit 9727.10 11056.50 12861.62 14255.78

Depreciation -770.00 -818.50 -916.72 -999.22

Exceptional Items 1289.00 58.70 0.00 0.00

Profit Before Tax 10246.10 10296.70 11944.90 13256.55

Tax -1791.80 -2103.70 -2448.71 -2651.31

Profit After Tax 8454.30 8193.00 9496.20 10605.24

Minority Interest -493.30 -595.20 -666.62 -706.62

Share of Profit & Loss of Asso 0.00 -0.50 -0.53 -0.55

Net Profit 7961.00 7597.30 8829.05 9898.07

Equity capital 340.30 340.40 340.40 340.40

Reserves 32790.10 37413.60 43025.64 49049.23

Face value 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

EPS 23.39 22.32 25.94 29.08

Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30th Sep, 2013 to 30th June, 2014E

Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 30-Jun-14E

Description 3m 3m 3m 3m

Net sales 19617.20 19822.70 19315.20 19508.35

Other income 128.20 173.30 193.90 211.35

Total Income 19745.40 19996.00 19509.10 19719.70

Expenditure -16682.80 -16747.40 -15921.20 -16572.35

Operating profit 3062.60 3248.60 3587.90 3147.36

Interest -257.00 -307.40 -268.90 -306.55

Gross profit 2805.60 2941.20 3319.00 2840.81

Depreciation -244.10 -224.90 -128.20 -156.40

Exceptional Items 0.00 1.70 34.70 0.00

Profit Before Tax 2561.50 2718.00 3225.50 2684.41

Tax -469.90 -558.40 -737.20 -540.91

Profit After Tax 2091.60 2159.60 2488.30 2143.50

Minority Interest -141.90 -203.60 -123.30 -129.47

Share of Profit & Loss of Asso 0.00 1.70 -2.20 -2.31

Net Profit 1949.70 1957.70 2362.80 2011.72

Equity capital 340.40 340.40 340.40 340.40

Face value 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

EPS 5.73 5.75 6.94 5.91

Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

EPS (Rs.) 23.39 22.32 25.94 29.08

EBITDA Margin (%) 16.39% 15.96% 16.25% 16.10%

PBT Margin (%) 15.99% 13.54% 13.78% 13.66%

PAT Margin (%) 13.19% 10.78% 10.96% 10.93%

P/E Ratio (x) 33.48 35.09 30.20 26.94

ROE (%) 25.52% 21.70% 21.90% 21.47%

ROCE (%) 23.11% 22.62% 25.44% 25.99%

Debt Equity Ratio 0.47 0.52 0.36 0.30

EV/EBITDA (x) 26.16 23.01 19.50 17.48

Book Value (Rs.) 97.36 110.91 127.40 145.09

P/BV 8.05 7.06 6.15 5.40

Charts

Outlook and Conclusion

� At the current market price of Rs.783.25, the stock P/E ratio is at 30.20 x FY15E and 26.94 x FY16E

respectively.

� Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs.25.94 and

Rs.29.08 respectively.

� Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 8% over 2013 to 2016E

respectively.

� On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 19.50 x for FY15E and 17.48 x for FY16E.

� Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 6.15 x and 5.40 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.

� We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.877.00 for Medium to Long term

investment.

Industry Overview

The Indian Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector is the fourth largest in the Indian economy and has a

market size of $13.1 billion. This industry primarily includes the production, distribution and marketing of

consumer packaged goods, that is those categories of products which are consumed at regular intervals.

The FMCG market is set to treble US$ 33.4 billion in 2015. Penetration level as well as per capita consumption in

most product categories like jams, toothpaste, skin care, hair wash etc in India is low indicating the untapped

market potential.

� The Indian FMCG industry represents nearly 2.5% of the country’s GDP.

� The industry has tripled in size in past 10 years and has grown at ~17%CAGR in the last 5 years driven by

rising income levels, increasing urbanization, strong rural demand and favourable demographic trends.

� The sector accounted for 1.9% of the nation’s total FDI inflows in April 2000- September 2012. Cumulative

FDI inflows into India from April 2000 to April 2013 in the food processing sector stood at Rs. 9,000.3 crore,

accounting for 0.96% of overall FDI inflows while the soaps, cosmetics and toiletries, accounting for 0.32% of

overall FDI at Rs. 3,115.5 crore.

� Food products and personal care together make up two-third of the sector’s revenues.

� Rural India accounts for more than 700 mn consumers or 70% of the Indian population and accounts for

50% of the total FMCG market.

� With changing lifestyle and increasing consumer demand, the Indian FMCG market is expected to cross $80

bn by 2026 in towns with population of up to 10 lakh.

� India's labor cost is amongst the lowest in the world, after China & Indonesia, giving it a competitive

advantage over other countries.

Household care

The fabric wash market size is estimated to be ~USD 1 billion, household cleaners to be USD 239 million, with

the production of synthetic detergents at 2.6 million tonnes. The demand for detergents has been growing at an

annual growth rate of 10 to 11% during the past five years

Personal Care (HPC)

The personal care products (PCP) market in India is estimated to be worth ~USD 4 bn p.a. Personal hygiene

products (including bath and shower products, deodorants etc.), hair care, skin care, colour cosmetics and

fragrances are the key segments of the personal care market.

Food & Beverages

Food processing industry is one of the largest industries in India, ranking fifth in terms of production, growth,

consumption, and export. The total value of Indian food processing industry is expected to touch USD 194 billion

by 2015 from a value of USD 121 billion in 2012, according to Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).

Expenditure on advertisements by FMCG Companies in 2013

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, a safe haven through most of the slowdown, have felt

consumption blues of late. While the annual revenues of these companies have increased 15-20 per cent, their

advertisement and sales promotions spends have raised 25-30 a year.

ITC, one of the biggest companies in the Indian FMCG space, spent Rs 806.65 crore on advertising in 2012-13,

against Rs 682.69 crore in 2011-12. At Rs 502.37 crore, Dabur India’s ad spends jumped 27 per cent in 2012-13.

In 2012-13, Hindustan Unilever spent Rs 3,231.88 crore on advertising and promotional activities, compared

with Rs 2,634.79 crore the previous financial year, a rise of 22.66 per cent. During the same period, Emami’s

spends rose 21.18 per cent to Rs 253.11 crore.

Government Policies and Regulatory Framework

Goods and Service Tax (GST): GST, which will replace the multiple indirect taxes levied on FMCG sector with a

uniform, simplified and single-pint taxation system, is likely to be implemented soon (the benefits are likely to

come in by the end of FY’14). The rate of GST on services is likely to be 16% and on goods is proposed to be 20%.

A swift move to the proposed GST may reduce prices, bolstering consumption for FMCG products.

Food Security Bill: The food security Bill has been passed recently by the Union Cabinet. As per the Bill, 5Kg of

food grains per person per month will be provided at subsidized prices from State Governments under the

targeted public distribution system.

FDI in retail: The decision to allow 51% FDI in multi brand retail and 100% FDI in single brand retail augers

well for the outlook for the FMCG sector. FMCG sector accounted for 1.9% of the nation’s total FDI inflows in

April 2000- September 2012. Cumulative FDI inflows into India from April 2000 to April 2013 in the food

processing sector stood at Rs. 9,000.33 crore, accounting for 0.96% of overall FDI inflows while that in the soaps,

cosmetics and toiletries was Rs. 3,115.54 crore in, accounting for 0.32%. The food processing sector attracted

FDI inflows of Rs. 6,198 crore during April 2009 to December 2012.

Relaxation of license rules: Industrial licenses are not required for almost all food and agro-processing

industries, barring certain items such as beer, potable alcohol and wines, cane sugar, and hydrogenated animal

fats and oils as well as items reserved for exclusive manufacturing in the small-scale sector.

Conclusion

While the rural market certainly offers a big attraction to marketers, it would be naïve to think that any company

can enter the market without facing any problems and walk away with a sizable share. Distribution is the most

important variable in the marketing plans of most consumer goods manufacturers, because managing such a

massive sales and distribution network is in itself a huge task.

This sector will continue to see growth as it depends on an ever-increasing internal market for consumption, and

demand for these goods remains more or less constant, irrespective of recession or inflation. Hence this sector

will grow, though it may not be a smooth growth path, due to the present world-wide economic slowdown, rising

inflation and fall of the rupee. This sector will see good growth in the long run and hiring will continue to remain

robust.

Disclaimer:

This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is

from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or

complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall

not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the

information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must

not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.

Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – info@firstcallindia.com

C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma

U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods

B. Anil Kumar Auto, IT & FMCG

Suhani Adilabadkar Pharma & Banking

M. Vinayak Rao Diversified

C. Bhagya Lakshmi Diversified

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