godae final symposium, 12 – 15 november 2008, nice, france safety and effectiveness of operations...

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

Safety and Effectiveness of operations at Sea

• F.J.M. Davidson1, A. Allen 2, G. B. Brassington3, O. Breivik4, P. Daniel5, B. Stone6, M. Kamachi7, S. Sato8, B. King9, Fabien Lefevre10, Marion Sutton10

» 1 DFO, St. John's, Canada» 2 USCG, Groton, USA» 3 CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia» 4 Met No, Bergen, Norway» 5 Meteo France, Toulouse, France» 6 CCG, St. John's, Canada» 7 MRI, Tokyo, Japan» 8 JCG, Tokyo, Japan» 9 APASA, Surfers Paradise, Australia 10 CLS, Ramonville-St.Agne, France


Outline

• Need

• Search and Rescue Applications

• Other safety applications

• Efficiency applications

• Concluding remarks


DrifterDeployment

GODAE ocean forecasting adds Value added information for the Search and Rescue Coordinator

GPSARGOS


Drift Prediction occurrence:Japanese Coast Guard

• Nakhodka Tanker Oil spill 1997 motivated need for better drift prediction, research and development

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

漂流予測実施回数


Canadian Example

DrifterRelease

Where you are.

Where Coast Guard is looking for you … In the wrong place.

Old

New


Australia: Blue Link

• Eastern Australian Current: Validation exercise

• Drifter’s overlayed on computed circulation


Comparison to 5 day drift

• Drifter Validation 6 buoys released in Eastern Australian Current

• Drogued at 15m

• Example from APASA*/CSIRO*Australian engineering group building

support/decisions tools for oil drift, chemical spills and search and recue drift

10 km

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Time (hrs)

Err

or

(km

) NCOMBlue-Link

Err

or

(km

)


Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System

Lat.

Initial position of BuoyBuoy (84631)Buoy (25141)Jason-1 geost. currentAssim: COMPASS-KAssim: MOVE

Long.

• Coast Guard uses Geostrophic currents + COMPASS-K (1/4o) currents

• MOVE system use for drift is starting


Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System

• Improvements from assimilation visible

• 5 day forecast error under 25 km

• 30km radius search zone = 2000 sq km’s

Jason-1 geost. currentAssim: COMPASS-KAssim: MOVE

Distance(km) Distance from obs. buoy

Lead time (hr)

Canadian Coast GuardCanadian Coast Guard

• 5 search and rescue centers• Environmental data is duplicated in all

6 centers• Search and Rescue Coordinator can

run drift prediction locally and create search plan within 5 minutes.

• Min-Max method used• Transition to Monte Carlo method

makes better use of current forecasts

• Environment Canada provides winds• DFO provides surface currents

Canadian Coast Guard Search and Rescue Operations


Search and Rescue structurein Japan

• Japanese Coast Guard– 11 regions – Central Tokyo data server and drift prediction – Remote operations from regions– Data and Forecast system thus centralised

• Both Japan Meteorological Agency and Coast Guard run drift predictions – <3 days JCG – >3 days JMA

• Monte Carlo method used for drift

• Coast Guard Modifies ocean

current field based on observations

•


US SAR OPS

US Coast Guard uses central environmental data base server

Forecast products retrieved by 45 search and rescue centers on request. Select time and location for data to download.

SAROPS: uses Monte Carlo method. Location likelihood updated based on search


US SAR OPS

SAROPS: Particle distribution and surface currents from NOAA North Atlantic HYCOM model RTOFS.


Norwegian: Drift service interfacehttp://kilden.met.no

Oil spill forecastorder form

Menu for driftservices and visualization

WMS client for simple visualization

http://kilden.met.no/


The impact of high-resolution current fields (1) Open-ocean conditions:

1.5km resolution vs 4km resolution (currently the operational model).

In open-ocean conditions the two models are virtually identical


The impact of high-resolution current fields(2) Near-shore trajectories:

1.5km

4km


1.5km

4km


1.5km

4km

The trajectories are highly influenced by the strong coastal current present in the high-resolution current field

New Development Stranding particles on a high-resolution coastline contour (GSHHS)


Ocean routing

Shipping company needs– Security: Crew+ Equipement– Quickest route *– Stick to time of arrival

Constraints: • Panama,

• Suez – Reduce of fuel consumption

Solution: Use GODAE ocean

forecast to take advantage of the current

Guadeloupe


Route recommendation – example 2

Leg2 : 21°5 N, 85°50W to 16°N, 78°20W

Passage planning

Best_current

Distance (nautical miles)

523.8 534.6

Travel time (hrs) 39.1 37.6

Mean Speed (knots) 13.4 14.2

Mean Current effect (knots)

-0.6 +0.2

• Example of a route recommendation to BROSTROM in the Gulf of Mexico for the route Houston to Pozos



• BROSTROM: Trinidad to Houston

Vessel speed

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

2/3/08 0:00 2/3/08 12:00 3/3/08 0:00 3/3/08 12:00 4/3/08 0:00 4/3/08 12:00

Temps

Sp

eed

(kn

ots

)

Surface Speed GPS Speed



• BROSTROM: Trinidad to Houston

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

2/3/08 0:00 2/3/08 12:00 3/3/08 0:00 3/3/08 12:00 4/3/08 0:00 4/3/08 12:00

Temps

Sp

eed

(kn

ots

)

GPS speedRel. speed


Need for Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Forecasting system

•Coast Guard•Requires advanced knowledge of Ice Free route•Manages safety along “ice free” route•Asks ships to follow official route

Coupled Atmospheric Ocean Ice Forecast System required:

EC-DFO collaboration

Plan to extend this system for North West Atlantic


Other requirements for GODAE products

• Ship routing tools through Ice zones

• Ice and current forecast for operational fisheries management


Ocean currents for iceberg forecasting

• Mercator ocean currents used as input to the Canadian Ice Service iceberg forecast model produced results improves on operational model

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast (days)

Sca

led

RM

S e

rro

r

Mercator

CIOM EC

CIOM EC at 18h UTC

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mercator

CIOM EC

CIOM EC at 18h UTC


Concluding Remarks

• GODAE ocean forecast products:

• Allready in use in different applications– Search and rescue– Marine routing: efficiency and safety through

strong currents and ice covered waters

• When it comes to ship routing and searching…. You can do better by using ocean forecast products instead of climatology

• Outreach/Interaction needed


Concluding Remarks

GODAE products have been evaluated on individual cases

Long hindcasts/reanalysis runs need to be used

Set standard benchmark data base for surface drifters for inter-comparison (include coast guard buoys)

Develop model forecast vs observed drift error statistics to adjust future application of forecast systems


Rescueing is a big effortwe need ocean knowledge to make it efficient

godae final symposium, 12 – 15 november 2008, nice, france safety and effectiveness of operations...

Documents

france slide

france search

godae final symposium

france australia

france safety

france impact

france comparison

meteo france